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CASE
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History: 2025

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   SEA 14–3 120 +0.172 +58.0 +0.142 +191.3 483 292 +1,113 +0.021 12.8 1.03 0.66
2   NE 14–3 116 +0.136 +48.3 +0.127 +169.2 490 320 +1,430 +0.102 13.0 0.93 0.69
3   LA 12–5 114 +0.121 +44.1 +0.125 +172.3 518 346 +1,141 +0.089 12.6 1.04 0.69
4   JAX 13–4 114 +0.118 +42.9 +0.099 +137.5 474 336 +573 +0.042 12.5 1.12 0.67
5   PHI 11–6 109 +0.079 +29.9 +0.042 +55.2 379 325 −50 +0.004 12.1 1.17 0.75
6   HOU 12–5 109 +0.078 +29.9 +0.080 +108.7 404 295 +846 −0.012 12.4 1.22 0.74
7   DEN 14–3 108 +0.065 +26.4 +0.064 +89.0 401 311 +1,095 +0.016 11.3 1.34 0.78
8   SF 12–5 107 +0.058 +22.4 +0.048 +66.5 437 371 +190 +0.066 10.7 0.95 0.73
9   BUF 12–5 106 +0.048 +18.1 +0.080 +114.5 481 365 +1,414 +0.117 9.9 1.03 0.69
10   GB 9.5–7.5 105 +0.045 +16.1 +0.029 +31.8 391 360 +353 +0.091 10.4 1.17 0.77
11   PIT 10–7 104 +0.037 +12.6 +0.012 +8.7 397 387 −872 +0.029 9.6 1.18 0.75
12   IND 8–9 104 +0.036 +12.6 +0.046 +53.8 466 412 −67 +0.077 8.9 1.02 0.72
13   DET 9–8 103 +0.028 +10.9 +0.051 +69.3 481 413 +702 +0.047 8.6 0.89 0.69
14   BAL 8–9 103 +0.024 +7.4 +0.024 +25.0 424 398 −380 +0.028 9.6 1.02 0.71
15   CHI 11–6 102 +0.019 +9.2 +0.015 +27.2 441 415 +132 +0.040 9.5 1.24 0.75
16   LAC 11–6 102 +0.014 +6.4 +0.017 +26.5 368 340 +826 −0.023 10.1 0.92 0.71
17   ATL 8–9 101 +0.005 +2.3 −0.035 −46.4 353 401 +108 −0.030 9.0 1.15 0.75
18   MIA 7–10 99 −0.013 −6.2 −0.056 −77.3 347 424 −800 −0.017 8.1 0.89 0.63
19   KC 6–11 98 −0.017 −6.0 +0.022 +32.5 362 328 +325 +0.030 7.1 1.11 0.77
20   TB 8–9 98 −0.018 −4.7 −0.025 −30.0 380 411 −286 −0.013 8.7 1.41 0.75
21   MIN 9–8 98 −0.022 −7.1 +0.009 +12.3 344 333 −129 −0.088 8.2 0.90 0.69
22   DAL 7.5–9.5 97 −0.031 −8.5 −0.034 −39.0 471 511 +254 +0.092 6.8 1.15 0.71
23   NYG 4–13 95 −0.046 −17.3 −0.043 −57.2 381 439 −443 +0.005 6.6 1.34 0.72
24   CIN 6–11 93 −0.063 −20.8 −0.061 −78.8 414 492 −879 +0.014 6.6 1.22 0.69
25   CAR 8–9 93 −0.066 −23.7 −0.053 −68.3 311 380 −538 −0.038 6.5 1.02 0.73
26   CLE 5–12 92 −0.069 −25.6 −0.074 −100.8 279 379 −366 −0.188 5.5 1.02 0.72
27   WAS 5–12 90 −0.090 −32.7 −0.066 −94.5 356 451 −1,114 +0.009 5.2 0.95 0.66
28   ARI 3–14 90 −0.092 −31.9 −0.095 −132.0 355 488 −543 −0.030 5.7 0.93 0.66
29   NO 6–11 87 −0.114 −41.6 −0.056 −76.0 306 383 +235 −0.121 5.0 0.96 0.71
30   LV 3–14 83 −0.150 −50.1 −0.149 −192.3 241 432 −1,235 −0.195 4.0 0.96 0.67
31   TEN 3–14 81 −0.169 −56.2 −0.146 −194.5 284 478 −1,454 −0.139 2.7 0.75 0.65
32   NYJ 3–14 78 −0.192 −64.9 −0.148 −204.2 300 503 −1,581 −0.105 2.0 0.86 0.63

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 D.Maye   NE 119 +0.270 +41.2 +0.272 +146.6 +0.298 +160.9 492 4,394 8.9 31 8
2 M.Stafford   LA 117 +0.242 +43.6 +0.243 +150.8 +0.227 +140.9 597 4,707 7.9 46 8
3 J.Love   GB 116 +0.239 +34.9 +0.208 +96.1 +0.239 +110.6 439 3,381 7.7 23 6
4 D.Prescott   DAL 114 +0.212 +37.8 +0.183 +115.7 +0.168 +106.7 600 4,552 7.6 30 10
5 B.Purdy   SF 114 +0.209 +17.9 +0.201 +59.8 +0.194 +58.0 284 2,167 7.6 20 10
6 J.Goff   DET 111 +0.173 +29.0 +0.178 +109.5 +0.173 +106.5 578 4,564 7.9 34 8
7 D.Jones   IND 111 +0.173 +20.1 +0.175 +72.1 +0.140 +57.5 384 3,101 8.1 19 8
8 M.Jones   SF 109 +0.153 +13.3 +0.130 +40.0 +0.125 +38.2 289 2,151 7.4 13 6
9 C.Stroud   HOU 107 +0.128 +15.9 +0.111 +50.0 +0.086 +38.6 423 3,041 7.2 19 8
10 S.Darnold   SEA 105 +0.110 +15.4 +0.134 +67.6 +0.124 +62.8 477 4,048 8.5 25 14
11 J.Allen   BUF 105 +0.103 +14.2 +0.130 +66.0 +0.120 +61.0 460 3,668 8.0 25 10
12 B.Nix   DEN 103 +0.085 +16.0 +0.092 +58.8 +0.092 +58.5 612 3,931 6.4 25 11
13 T.Lawrence   JAX 103 +0.080 +13.1 +0.071 +42.9 +0.055 +33.0 560 4,007 7.2 29 12
14 P.Mahomes   KC 102 +0.068 +10.8 +0.114 +61.5 +0.127 +68.2 502 3,587 7.1 22 11
15 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 101 +0.060 +6.2 +0.027 +11.3 +0.020 +8.3 384 2,660 6.9 20 15
16 C.Williams   CHI 101 +0.057 +9.9 +0.060 +35.7 +0.071 +42.2 568 3,942 6.9 27 7
17 J.Burrow   CIN 101 +0.056 +4.8 +0.086 +24.0 +0.099 +27.6 259 1,809 7.0 17 5
18 J.Hurts   PHI 101 +0.055 +7.9 +0.059 +28.6 +0.052 +25.4 454 3,224 7.1 25 6
19 M.Penix   ATL 100 +0.051 +4.4 +0.012 +3.4 −0.004 −1.1 276 1,982 7.2 9 3
20 J.Brissett   ARI 100 +0.051 +6.1 +0.030 +16.0 −0.011 −6.0 485 3,366 6.9 23 8
21 K.Cousins   ATL 100 +0.041 +3.3 −0.002 −0.5 −0.019 −5.5 269 1,721 6.4 10 5
22 J.Flacco   CIN 99 +0.037 +2.5 +0.030 +8.1 +0.031 +8.4 256 1,664 6.5 13 4
23 B.Mayfield   TB 99 +0.037 +6.2 +0.013 +7.7 −0.006 −3.5 543 3,693 6.8 26 11
24 A.Rodgers   PIT 99 +0.037 +5.7 +0.042 +22.1 +0.027 +14.2 498 3,322 6.7 24 7
25 T.Shough   NO 99 +0.034 +3.1 +0.012 +4.5 −0.029 −10.3 327 2,384 7.3 10 6
26 J.Herbert   LAC 99 +0.031 +5.1 +0.052 +29.6 +0.008 +4.5 512 3,727 7.3 26 13
27 L.Jackson   BAL 97 +0.010 +1.0 +0.047 +16.1 +0.019 +6.5 302 2,549 8.4 21 7
28 M.Mariota   WAS 96 0.000 0.0 +0.021 +5.2 −0.016 −3.9 227 1,695 7.5 10 7
29 J.Daniels   WAS 95 −0.008 −0.4 +0.006 +1.2 −0.023 −4.8 188 1,262 6.7 8 3
30 J.Dart   NYG 95 −0.010 −1.0 −0.008 −3.2 −0.022 −8.2 339 2,272 6.7 15 5
31 B.Young   CAR 93 −0.039 −5.5 −0.026 −13.1 −0.043 −22.0 478 3,011 6.3 23 11
32 J.McCarthy   MIN 89 −0.078 −6.2 −0.101 −27.6 −0.198 −54.1 243 1,632 6.7 11 12
33 S.Rattler   NO 87 −0.105 −7.6 −0.059 −16.1 −0.132 −36.2 257 1,586 6.2 8 5
34 C.Ward   TEN 85 −0.125 −17.1 −0.152 −90.2 −0.190 −113.3 540 3,169 5.9 15 7
35 G.Smith   LV 84 −0.139 −18.1 −0.087 −44.0 −0.144 −72.9 448 3,025 6.8 19 17
36 D.Gabriel   CLE 83 −0.147 −7.2 −0.197 −40.5 −0.219 −44.9 185 937 5.1 7 2
37 S.Sanders   CLE 80 −0.181 −11.0 −0.220 −51.7 −0.299 −70.2 212 1,400 6.6 7 10
38 J.Fields   NYJ 80 −0.184 −10.3 −0.067 −15.6 −0.096 −22.5 204 1,259 6.2 7 1

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2025 row, on GitHub .