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History: 2010

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   NE 14–2 122 +0.190 +55.4 +0.160 +202.0 518 313 −44 +0.152 12.7 0.80 0.61
2   ATL 13–3* 113 +0.114 +40.5 +0.097 +126.3 414 288 +44 +0.046 10.8 1.19 0.69
3   PIT 12–4 113 +0.111 +37.2 +0.113 +144.0 375 232 +1,095 +0.012 11.1 1.16 0.69
4   GB 10–6 112 +0.103 +38.0 +0.117 +148.1 388 240 +784 +0.049 12.1 1.15 0.76
5   BAL 12–4 112 +0.103 +38.9 +0.064 +85.1 357 270 +72 +0.017 12.5 1.24 0.75
6   NYG 10–6 110 +0.087 +25.8 +0.037 +48.0 394 347 +1,113 −0.052 10.8 0.86 0.60
7   PHI 10–6 108 +0.069 +23.4 +0.046 +62.0 439 377 +1,002 +0.056 9.7 1.17 0.67
8   NO 11–5 108 +0.068 +26.8 +0.055 +76.0 384 307 +1,060 +0.026 10.9 1.15 0.74
9   KC 10–6 107 +0.061 +21.0 +0.030 +41.1 366 326 +312 +0.010 10.9 0.99 0.67
10   IND 10–6 107 +0.057 +23.4 +0.031 +49.8 435 388 +627 +0.072 9.9 1.07 0.70
11   SD 9–7 106 +0.049 +15.4 +0.094 +121.9 441 322 +1,994 +0.051 9.9 0.97 0.62
12   NYJ 11–5 105 +0.045 +17.8 +0.046 +61.1 367 304 +951 −0.036 9.1 1.40 0.77
13   CHI 11–5 105 +0.043 +16.3 +0.036 +49.0 334 286 −398 −0.124 10.4 1.08 0.75
14   OAK 8–8 102 +0.020 +7.2 +0.028 +39.0 410 371 +511 +0.004 8.4 1.08 0.70
15   STL 7–9 101 +0.009 +3.3 −0.028 −38.9 289 328 −542 −0.104 8.5 1.04 0.71
16   TB 10–6 100 −0.002 −1.1 +0.021 +24.9 341 318 +39 +0.013 8.7 1.31 0.73
17   TEN 6–10 98 −0.018 −9.3 +0.018 +17.0 356 339 −1,049 −0.018 6.9 1.04 0.67
18   CLE 5–11 98 −0.021 −8.0 −0.046 −59.1 271 332 −965 −0.081 6.4 1.28 0.77
19   MIA 7–9 98 −0.022 −8.4 −0.049 −62.9 273 333 +221 −0.085 7.4 1.16 0.79
20   DET 6–10 96 −0.032 −12.2 −0.005 −5.2 362 369 −73 −0.056 6.5 1.20 0.77
21   SF 6–10* 95 −0.043 −13.8 −0.035 −42.3 305 346 −136 −0.074 6.2 0.99 0.67
22   DAL 6–10 95 −0.045 −14.7 −0.035 −42.0 394 436 +194 −0.016 6.5 1.28 0.72
23   JAX 8–8 95 −0.047 −14.9 −0.062 −71.7 353 419 −496 +0.014 6.3 1.06 0.71
24   WAS 6–10 93 −0.064 −24.2 −0.058 −76.9 302 377 −854 −0.115 6.2 1.51 0.75
25   HOU 6–10 92 −0.073 −25.8 −0.027 −38.0 390 427 +155 +0.083 5.8 1.07 0.66
26   CIN 4–12 91 −0.077 −26.4 −0.055 −69.2 322 395 −23 −0.051 4.8 1.18 0.71
27   MIN 6–10 91 −0.079 −27.5 −0.053 −67.0 281 348 +43 −0.114 5.3 1.04 0.72
28   SEA 7–9 90 −0.085 −25.3 −0.074 −98.0 310 407 −1,134 −0.121 6.0 0.67 0.58
29   ARI 5–11 88 −0.108 −34.7 −0.110 −141.2 289 434 −1,678 −0.201 4.0 1.20 0.64
30   BUF 4–12 86 −0.118 −41.4 −0.112 −144.9 283 425 −915 −0.109 4.4 1.09 0.69
31   DEN 4–12 85 −0.127 −40.7 −0.093 −127.0 344 471 −671 −0.022 3.8 1.08 0.63
32   CAR 2–14 77 −0.199 −61.9 −0.167 −211.0 196 408 −1,239 −0.234 2.2 0.85 0.63

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 T.Brady   NE 120 +0.261 +34.4 +0.258 +133.4 +0.273 +141.2 492 3,900 7.9 36 4
2 M.Ryan   ATL 117 +0.238 +33.8 +0.200 +101.2 +0.185 +93.8 571 3,705 6.5 28 9
3 P.Rivers   SD 112 +0.181 +26.6 +0.227 +131.9 +0.259 +149.9 541 4,710 8.7 30 13
4 P.Manning   IND 110 +0.161 +30.9 +0.188 +130.9 +0.164 +113.8 679 4,700 6.9 33 17
5 A.Rodgers   GB 109 +0.154 +23.6 +0.192 +97.3 +0.189 +95.7 475 3,922 8.3 28 11
6 M.Vick   PHI 109 +0.150 +15.6 +0.137 +55.9 +0.132 +53.8 372 3,018 8.1 21 6
7 D.Brees   NO 109 +0.148 +29.4 +0.139 +95.2 +0.113 +77.4 658 4,620 7.0 33 22
8 J.Freeman   TB 108 +0.136 +19.6 +0.146 +73.5 +0.127 +63.7 474 3,451 7.3 25 6
9 J.Flacco   BAL 108 +0.135 +21.4 +0.092 +48.5 +0.079 +41.7 489 3,622 7.4 25 10
10 E.Manning   NYG 107 +0.123 +16.3 +0.072 +39.7 +0.060 +33.5 539 4,002 7.4 31 25
11 M.Cassel   KC 106 +0.122 +14.7 +0.117 +56.0 +0.127 +60.5 450 3,116 6.9 27 7
12 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 106 +0.121 +13.8 +0.139 +58.6 +0.165 +69.3 389 3,200 8.2 17 5
13 J.Kitna   DAL 104 +0.093 +7.4 +0.102 +34.9 +0.053 +18.0 318 2,365 7.4 16 12
14 M.Schaub   HOU 102 +0.079 +11.5 +0.123 +74.5 +0.127 +77.2 574 4,370 7.6 24 12
15 T.Romo   DAL 102 +0.076 +5.3 +0.119 +26.2 +0.065 +14.2 213 1,605 7.5 11 7
16 A.Smith   SF 100 +0.059 +4.7 +0.008 +2.5 −0.031 −10.4 342 2,370 6.9 14 10
17 D.Garrard   JAX 100 +0.052 +5.9 +0.056 +22.1 +0.047 +18.8 366 2,734 7.5 23 15
18 J.Campbell   OAK 100 +0.051 +4.9 +0.016 +5.9 +0.019 +6.9 329 2,387 7.3 13 8
19 Sh.Hill   DET 100 +0.050 +5.5 +0.071 +30.1 +0.040 +16.9 416 2,686 6.5 16 12
20 C.Henne   MIA 99 +0.047 +8.0 +0.004 +2.3 −0.014 −7.3 491 3,298 6.7 15 18
21 K.Collins   TEN 99 +0.038 +2.5 +0.050 +14.5 +0.058 +16.9 278 1,823 6.6 14 8
22 M.Sanchez   NYJ 98 +0.032 +5.2 +0.004 +2.4 −0.023 −12.4 507 3,291 6.5 17 13
23 S.Bradford   STL 95 +0.004 +0.8 −0.041 −25.4 −0.082 −51.1 590 3,512 6.0 18 15
24 K.Orton   DEN 95 +0.004 +0.5 +0.054 +29.0 +0.050 +26.6 498 3,652 7.3 20 9
25 C.Palmer   CIN 95 −0.002 −0.3 +0.049 +30.4 +0.039 +23.8 586 3,970 6.8 26 20
26 R.Fitzpatrick   BUF 94 −0.005 −0.7 +0.002 +1.1 −0.016 −7.2 441 2,992 6.8 23 15
27 D.McNabb   WAS 94 −0.009 −1.3 −0.035 −17.8 −0.059 −30.1 472 3,377 7.2 14 15
28 C.McCoy   CLE 93 −0.022 −1.3 −0.018 −4.4 −0.040 −9.7 222 1,576 7.1 6 9
29 J.Cutler   CHI 92 −0.034 −5.1 −0.039 −18.8 −0.074 −35.9 432 3,274 7.6 23 16
30 M.Hasselbeck   SEA 90 −0.052 −5.9 −0.053 −25.0 −0.064 −30.1 444 2,998 6.8 12 17
31 K.Kolb   PHI 86 −0.092 −5.3 −0.077 −15.7 −0.071 −14.4 189 1,197 6.3 7 7
32 D.Anderson   ARI 83 −0.124 −10.7 −0.124 −43.7 −0.169 −59.7 327 2,065 6.3 7 10
33 B.Favre   MIN 83 −0.126 −13.6 −0.103 −39.2 −0.130 −49.6 358 2,509 7.0 11 19
34 J.Clausen   CAR 73 −0.237 −16.0 −0.256 −85.1 −0.280 −93.0 299 1,558 5.2 3 9

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2010 row, on GitHub .