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History: 2021

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   BUF 11–6 116 +0.122 +41.1 +0.139 +192.4 483 289 +1,856 +0.061 11.9 0.74 0.65
2   TB 13–4 112 +0.090 +33.8 +0.111 +159.3 511 353 +1,266 +0.088 11.4 0.92 0.68
3   KC 12–5 112 +0.088 +33.4 +0.078 +114.4 480 364 +474 +0.131 11.8 0.90 0.67
4   DAL 12–5 111 +0.085 +33.6 +0.117 +173.6 530 358 +952 +0.055 11.2 1.02 0.65
5   IND 9–8 111 +0.080 +28.3 +0.062 +84.7 451 365 +67 +0.035 10.5 0.93 0.67
6   GB 13–4 110 +0.077 +29.9 +0.058 +80.2 450 371 +636 +0.105 12.5 1.09 0.70
7   LA 12–5 110 +0.073 +23.7 +0.068 +89.0 460 372 +462 +0.069 11.6 0.89 0.65
8   ARI 11–6 110 +0.072 +25.8 +0.058 +83.2 449 366 +755 +0.035 10.9 0.93 0.66
9   NE 10–7 108 +0.059 +19.8 +0.118 +158.0 462 303 +724 +0.048 9.4 0.91 0.66
10   TEN 12–5 106 +0.048 +17.9 +0.045 +64.0 419 354 +215 +0.005 10.3 1.13 0.68
11   SEA 7–10 106 +0.042 +12.3 +0.033 +30.0 395 366 −939 +0.011 9.1 0.97 0.72
12   SF 10–7 105 +0.041 +14.4 +0.047 +63.0 427 365 +1,117 +0.073 9.9 1.02 0.69
13   MIN 8–9 104 +0.029 +11.0 +0.002 +0.2 425 426 −354 −0.008 9.3 1.49 0.74
14   CIN 10–7 103 +0.022 +7.8 +0.061 +82.8 460 376 +181 +0.038 9.4 1.29 0.70
15   CLE 8–9 103 +0.022 +8.0 −0.016 −22.3 349 371 +495 −0.025 9.1 0.91 0.70
16   LAC 9–8 102 +0.015 +6.2 +0.009 +14.3 474 459 +512 +0.046 8.5 1.15 0.73
17   LV 10–7 102 +0.011 +4.7 −0.046 −66.3 374 439 +452 −0.006 9.4 1.18 0.73
18   PHI 9–8 101 +0.004 +1.0 +0.044 +59.7 444 385 +529 +0.041 8.4 0.71 0.68
19   MIA 9–8 100 0.000 0.0 −0.023 −32.3 341 373 −519 −0.064 8.7 0.95 0.69
20   NO 9–8 100 −0.001 −0.4 +0.021 +29.8 364 335 −233 −0.083 9.1 0.82 0.68
21   DEN 7–10 97 −0.021 −6.8 +0.009 +11.8 335 322 +74 +0.013 7.8 0.74 0.67
22   BAL 8–9 97 −0.026 −9.7 −0.007 −6.0 387 392 +262 +0.006 7.4 1.50 0.75
23   PIT 9.5–7.5 94 −0.047 −17.3 −0.038 −55.5 343 398 −778 −0.062 7.9 1.26 0.68
24   ATL 7–10 93 −0.054 −21.3 −0.105 −145.0 313 459 −1,030 −0.089 7.3 0.94 0.71
25   CAR 5–12 92 −0.062 −21.8 −0.070 −99.0 304 404 −120 −0.148 6.2 0.83 0.66
26   WAS 7–10 91 −0.069 −26.1 −0.073 −98.2 335 434 −606 −0.041 6.1 1.02 0.73
27   CHI 6–11 91 −0.072 −23.9 −0.071 −94.8 311 407 −159 −0.094 5.4 1.00 0.66
28   HOU 4–13 87 −0.101 −33.5 −0.127 −172.7 280 452 −1,808 −0.129 4.9 0.65 0.64
29   NYG 4–13 84 −0.119 −43.8 −0.115 −157.2 258 416 −1,148 −0.137 4.7 0.72 0.70
30   DET 3.5–13.5 84 −0.124 −43.3 −0.103 −141.2 325 467 −972 −0.075 3.7 1.15 0.67
31   NYJ 4–13 83 −0.131 −48.5 −0.137 −195.0 310 504 −1,552 −0.087 4.1 0.98 0.66
32   JAX 3–14 77 −0.173 −56.5 −0.151 −204.8 253 457 −811 −0.097 4.0 0.70 0.63

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 A.Rodgers   GB 120 +0.274 +23.1 +0.278 +79.9 +0.306 +87.8 531 4,115 7.7 37 4
2 Aa.Rodgers   GB 114 +0.212 +17.6 +0.139 +38.1 +0.149 +41.0 531 4,115 7.7 37 4
3 D.Prescott   DAL 113 +0.203 +34.1 +0.182 +114.9 +0.172 +108.3 596 4,449 7.5 37 10
4 M.Stafford   LA 112 +0.196 +32.8 +0.208 +131.6 +0.185 +117.6 601 4,886 8.1 41 17
5 T.Brady   TB 112 +0.188 +37.6 +0.180 +133.8 +0.184 +136.6 719 5,316 7.4 43 12
6 P.Mahomes   KC 111 +0.184 +34.4 +0.173 +118.8 +0.186 +128.3 658 4,839 7.4 37 13
7 J.Garoppolo   SF 111 +0.181 +23.1 +0.178 +83.8 +0.165 +78.0 441 3,810 8.6 20 12
8 J.Burrow   CIN 110 +0.172 +27.4 +0.164 +93.8 +0.154 +88.5 520 4,611 8.9 34 14
9 J.Herbert   LAC 110 +0.167 +32.1 +0.156 +110.5 +0.150 +106.4 672 5,014 7.5 38 15
10 K.Murray   ARI 108 +0.150 +21.1 +0.135 +69.3 +0.117 +60.0 481 3,787 7.9 24 10
11 K.Cousins   MIN 108 +0.145 +25.5 +0.123 +72.8 +0.107 +63.1 561 4,221 7.5 33 7
12 D.Carr   LV 105 +0.118 +22.1 +0.086 +57.3 +0.034 +22.8 626 4,804 7.7 23 14
13 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 104 +0.098 +11.9 +0.071 +29.0 +0.051 +21.0 388 2,653 6.8 16 10
14 R.Tannehill   TEN 102 +0.080 +12.3 +0.033 +19.2 +0.021 +12.1 531 3,734 7.0 21 14
15 R.Wilson   SEA 101 +0.073 +9.0 +0.063 +27.2 +0.014 +6.2 400 3,113 7.8 25 6
16 M.Ryan   ATL 101 +0.064 +10.6 +0.006 +3.4 −0.028 −17.1 560 3,968 7.1 20 12
17 T.Bridgewater   DEN 100 +0.059 +6.9 +0.113 +52.1 +0.113 +52.0 426 3,052 7.2 18 7
18 C.Wentz   IND 100 +0.058 +8.8 +0.064 +35.5 +0.013 +7.1 516 3,563 6.9 27 7
19 J.Allen   BUF 100 +0.057 +9.9 +0.096 +60.4 +0.092 +58.1 646 4,407 6.8 36 15
20 M.Jones   NE 100 +0.053 +7.3 +0.080 +44.3 +0.058 +31.7 521 3,801 7.3 22 13
21 D.Jones   NYG 99 +0.052 +5.6 −0.015 −5.7 −0.038 −14.4 361 2,428 6.7 10 7
22 L.Jackson   BAL 97 +0.029 +3.5 +0.048 +20.6 +0.026 +11.3 382 2,882 7.5 16 13
23 J.Hurts   PHI 97 +0.024 +3.0 +0.070 +32.2 +0.027 +12.3 432 3,144 7.3 16 9
24 J.Goff   DET 97 +0.021 +2.6 +0.011 +5.7 −0.065 −34.7 494 3,245 6.6 19 8
25 T.Heinicke   WAS 96 +0.011 +1.7 −0.025 −13.5 −0.079 −42.2 494 3,419 6.9 20 15
26 D.Mills   HOU 95 +0.005 +0.5 −0.053 −22.5 −0.118 −50.2 394 2,664 6.8 16 10
27 A.Dalton   CHI 94 −0.010 −0.6 −0.050 −12.7 −0.117 −30.1 236 1,515 6.4 8 9
28 B.Mayfield   CLE 93 −0.016 −2.1 −0.033 −15.3 −0.034 −15.6 418 3,010 7.2 17 13
29 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 92 −0.031 −4.9 −0.034 −22.0 −0.077 −50.2 605 3,740 6.2 22 10
30 T.Lawrence   JAX 91 −0.045 −6.4 −0.052 −33.3 −0.112 −71.9 602 3,641 6.0 12 17
31 J.Brissett   MIA 89 −0.061 −3.8 −0.069 −16.9 −0.106 −26.0 225 1,283 5.7 5 4
32 S.Darnold   CAR 88 −0.079 −8.8 −0.126 −55.6 −0.186 −82.3 406 2,527 6.2 9 13
33 T.Siemian   NO 84 −0.122 −5.4 +0.001 +0.2 −0.052 −10.5 188 1,154 6.1 11 3
34 T.Huntley   BAL 83 −0.133 −7.6 −0.137 −28.6 −0.147 −30.7 188 1,081 5.8 3 4
35 Z.Wilson   NYJ 81 −0.150 −15.1 −0.182 −78.1 −0.223 −95.7 383 2,334 6.1 9 11
36 J.Fields   CHI 81 −0.151 −10.7 −0.193 −59.2 −0.212 −64.9 270 1,870 6.9 7 10

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2021 row, on GitHub .