JD
CASE
Subscribe

History: 2013

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   SF 12–4 119 +0.149 +49.9 +0.102 +133.4 406 272 +109 +0.039 12.2 0.91 0.68
2   DEN 13–3 119 +0.146 +52.4 +0.138 +206.2 606 399 +1,621 +0.179 12.9 0.91 0.63
3   SEA 13–3 118 +0.139 +46.6 +0.144 +185.5 417 231 +1,046 +0.037 12.0 0.91 0.69
4   KC 11–5 113 +0.099 +36.6 +0.091 +126.0 430 305 −489 +0.022 10.7 1.23 0.71
5   CAR 12–4 112 +0.093 +32.0 +0.100 +124.8 366 241 +249 +0.055 11.3 1.01 0.71
6   CIN 11–5 110 +0.078 +26.8 +0.094 +124.5 430 305 +1,003 +0.016 10.5 1.22 0.68
7   NO 11–5 109 +0.067 +23.3 +0.082 +109.8 414 304 +1,500 +0.082 10.3 1.05 0.67
8   PHI 10–6 108 +0.059 +20.1 +0.043 +59.8 442 382 +364 +0.069 10.1 0.92 0.64
9   NE 12–4 107 +0.053 +21.5 +0.074 +105.8 444 338 +183 +0.073 9.2 1.56 0.75
10   DAL 8–8 105 +0.042 +14.9 +0.010 +7.0 439 432 −1,187 +0.060 10.0 1.27 0.73
11   IND 11–5 104 +0.029 +9.1 +0.042 +55.5 391 336 −245 +0.042 9.1 0.78 0.63
12   ARI 10–6 103 +0.023 +8.5 +0.040 +55.5 379 324 +463 −0.030 8.7 1.20 0.72
13   SD 9–7 103 +0.020 +11.0 +0.031 +47.5 396 348 +437 +0.133 9.2 1.27 0.75
14   DET 7–9 101 +0.010 +4.3 +0.015 +20.0 395 376 +728 −0.013 8.3 1.46 0.81
15   PIT 8–8 100 0.000 +0.2 +0.006 +9.2 379 370 −2 −0.009 7.9 0.83 0.66
16   GB 8.5–7.5 99 −0.007 −2.4 −0.010 −11.3 417 428 +448 +0.060 7.9 1.47 0.72
17   BAL 8–8 99 −0.012 −5.2 −0.020 −32.5 320 352 −450 −0.066 7.3 1.60 0.74
18   MIA 8–8 98 −0.014 −5.2 −0.016 −17.7 317 335 −743 −0.023 7.9 1.28 0.80
19   CHI 8–8 98 −0.017 −6.3 −0.026 −33.0 445 478 −204 +0.053 7.7 1.53 0.73
20   STL 7–9 95 −0.037 −10.2 −0.014 −15.8 348 364 −643 −0.045 6.6 0.65 0.57
21   TEN 7–9 95 −0.040 −15.9 −0.014 −19.0 362 381 −17 +0.012 7.2 1.44 0.78
22   BUF 6–10 94 −0.045 −17.0 −0.035 −50.1 339 388 +76 −0.072 6.4 1.20 0.71
23   NYJ 8–8 94 −0.051 −17.4 −0.074 −97.3 290 387 −269 −0.089 7.2 0.88 0.69
24   CLE 4–12 93 −0.054 −20.9 −0.070 −98.0 308 406 +111 −0.076 6.1 1.27 0.74
25   ATL 4–12 92 −0.060 −20.9 −0.069 −89.0 353 443 −580 +0.009 5.2 1.28 0.73
26   MIN 5.5–10.5 92 −0.062 −25.7 −0.061 −88.4 391 480 −854 −0.017 5.6 1.82 0.73
27   TB 4–12 92 −0.062 −21.0 −0.077 −101.2 288 389 −1,136 −0.077 5.5 1.04 0.68
28   NYG 7–9 92 −0.065 −20.1 −0.073 −89.0 294 383 −396 −0.127 6.5 0.98 0.69
29   OAK 4–12 88 −0.095 −29.8 −0.099 −131.2 322 453 −479 −0.061 4.8 0.95 0.63
30   HOU 2–14 86 −0.114 −41.7 −0.109 −151.5 276 428 +475 −0.112 3.9 1.16 0.70
31   WAS 3–13 83 −0.132 −47.2 −0.104 −144.0 334 478 +250 −0.085 4.0 1.07 0.68
32   JAX 4–12 80 −0.161 −50.4 −0.151 −201.5 247 449 −1,369 −0.124 3.9 0.86 0.62

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Manning   DEN 126 +0.378 +67.1 +0.369 +250.4 +0.374 +253.7 659 5,477 8.3 55 10
2 J.McCown   CHI 122 +0.322 +22.2 +0.304 +71.8 +0.336 +79.4 224 1,829 8.2 13 1
3 P.Rivers   SD 118 +0.273 +46.5 +0.271 +155.5 +0.276 +158.5 544 4,478 8.2 32 11
4 A.Rodgers   GB 116 +0.248 +21.6 +0.280 +87.2 +0.284 +88.6 290 2,536 8.7 17 6
5 N.Foles   PHI 115 +0.235 +21.3 +0.272 +95.2 +0.284 +99.3 317 2,891 9.1 27 2
6 D.Brees   NO 114 +0.227 +41.0 +0.223 +153.4 +0.215 +147.9 650 5,162 7.9 39 12
7 C.Kaepernick   SF 109 +0.157 +20.7 +0.114 +51.9 +0.115 +52.1 416 3,197 7.7 21 8
8 R.Wilson   SEA 107 +0.141 +18.5 +0.166 +74.9 +0.146 +66.2 407 3,357 8.2 26 9
9 M.Stafford   DET 105 +0.112 +23.7 +0.094 +62.1 +0.061 +40.6 634 4,650 7.3 29 19
10 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 104 +0.097 +14.8 +0.085 +53.4 +0.082 +51.1 584 4,261 7.3 28 14
11 T.Romo   DAL 103 +0.091 +15.0 +0.100 +57.0 +0.071 +40.8 535 3,828 7.2 31 10
12 T.Brady   NE 103 +0.086 +16.8 +0.094 +63.1 +0.099 +66.6 628 4,343 6.9 25 11
13 M.Ryan   ATL 103 +0.085 +16.1 +0.061 +42.5 +0.025 +17.6 651 4,515 6.9 26 17
14 A.Dalton   CIN 101 +0.063 +10.6 +0.078 +48.1 +0.082 +50.3 586 4,293 7.3 33 20
15 M.Cassel   MIN 101 +0.063 +4.1 +0.022 +5.9 −0.047 −12.8 254 1,807 7.1 11 9
16 A.Smith   KC 101 +0.058 +9.2 +0.054 +29.7 +0.029 +15.8 508 3,313 6.5 23 7
17 A.Luck   IND 100 +0.048 +7.1 +0.071 +43.4 +0.033 +20.2 570 3,822 6.7 23 9
18 M.Glennon   TB 100 +0.047 +5.0 −0.041 −18.8 −0.074 −33.9 416 2,608 6.3 19 9
19 R.Fitzpatrick   TEN 99 +0.031 +3.4 +0.065 +24.1 +0.065 +24.1 350 2,454 7.0 14 12
20 C.Palmer   ARI 98 +0.020 +3.4 +0.033 +20.1 +0.002 +0.9 572 4,274 7.5 24 22
21 C.Newton   CAR 97 +0.017 +2.6 +0.042 +21.8 +0.056 +28.7 473 3,379 7.1 24 13
22 R.Tannehill   MIA 97 +0.017 +3.3 −0.002 −1.4 −0.001 −0.8 588 3,913 6.7 24 17
23 M.McGloin   OAK 97 +0.010 +0.5 +0.029 +6.2 +0.019 +4.2 211 1,547 7.3 8 8
24 R.Griffin   WAS 95 −0.007 −0.8 +0.010 +5.2 −0.003 −1.4 456 3,203 7.0 16 12
25 J.Cutler   CHI 94 −0.022 −2.1 +0.008 +2.9 +0.010 +3.9 355 2,621 7.4 19 12
26 C.Henne   JAX 93 −0.035 −4.1 −0.066 −35.6 −0.085 −46.4 503 3,241 6.4 13 14
27 K.Clemens   STL 93 −0.041 −2.4 −0.022 −5.9 −0.063 −16.8 242 1,673 6.9 8 7
28 C.Keenum   HOU 92 −0.045 −3.4 −0.078 −21.2 −0.141 −38.4 253 1,760 7.0 9 6
29 S.Bradford   STL 92 −0.046 −2.5 0.000 +0.1 −0.064 −17.8 262 1,687 6.4 14 4
30 G.Smith   NYJ 92 −0.052 −6.7 −0.135 −65.6 −0.139 −67.4 443 3,046 6.9 12 21
31 T.Pryor   OAK 91 −0.057 −3.4 −0.106 −32.2 −0.138 −42.0 272 1,798 6.6 7 11
32 J.Flacco   BAL 91 −0.065 −11.9 −0.051 −33.5 −0.051 −33.5 614 3,912 6.4 19 22
33 C.Ponder   MIN 91 −0.068 −5.6 −0.084 −22.5 −0.103 −27.4 239 1,648 6.9 7 9
34 M.Schaub   HOU 90 −0.078 −7.7 −0.076 −28.9 −0.119 −45.1 358 2,310 6.5 10 14
35 E.Manuel   BUF 90 −0.080 −7.0 −0.122 −41.1 −0.155 −51.9 306 1,972 6.4 11 9
36 E.Manning   NYG 89 −0.091 −14.0 −0.092 −54.3 −0.107 −63.0 551 3,818 6.9 18 27
37 J.Campbell   CLE 87 −0.114 −9.6 −0.079 −26.4 −0.092 −30.8 317 2,015 6.4 11 8
38 B.Weeden   CLE 85 −0.137 −10.2 −0.137 −40.4 −0.140 −41.4 267 1,731 6.5 9 9

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2013 row, on GitHub .