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History: 2011

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   GB 15–1 122 +0.216 +67.9 +0.152 +200.4 560 359 −110 +0.190 14.5 0.96 0.62
2   SF 13–3 113 +0.129 +42.8 +0.118 +150.2 380 229 +43 +0.002 11.6 0.96 0.69
3   NO 13–3* 113 +0.129 +41.1 +0.147 +194.3 547 339 +1,607 +0.159 10.9 0.90 0.64
4   NE 13–3 112 +0.121 +45.0 +0.122 +169.9 513 342 +271 +0.185 12.5 1.06 0.69
5   BAL 12–4 112 +0.118 +37.0 +0.088 +112.0 378 266 +797 −0.005 10.9 0.94 0.63
6   PIT 12–4 112 +0.113 +36.2 +0.079 +97.5 325 227 +1,609 +0.020 12.1 1.02 0.67
7   HOU 10–6 109 +0.090 +30.2 +0.082 +103.5 381 278 +1,383 −0.003 9.9 1.02 0.68
8   PHI 8–8 109 +0.084 +26.6 +0.053 +68.6 396 328 +1,188 +0.026 9.8 1.00 0.65
9   ATL 10–6 107 +0.065 +21.6 +0.041 +51.8 402 350 +688 +0.019 9.3 0.99 0.64
10   DET 10–6* 104 +0.035 +11.3 +0.077 +100.8 474 387 +436 +0.023 8.3 1.08 0.64
11   DAL 8–8 103 +0.029 +10.0 +0.017 +22.3 369 347 +517 +0.013 9.1 1.34 0.69
12   MIA 6–10 102 +0.022 +8.2 +0.007 +15.4 329 313 −444 −0.024 9.0 0.95 0.69
13   CHI 8–8 102 +0.019 +7.9 +0.005 +12.3 353 341 −589 −0.086 7.7 1.03 0.68
14   SD 8–8 102 +0.017 +6.3 +0.021 +28.8 406 377 +744 +0.074 9.1 1.12 0.69
15   CIN 9–7 101 +0.009 +2.9 +0.017 +20.5 344 323 +58 −0.037 8.4 1.22 0.76
16   TEN 9–7 101 +0.006 +3.0 +0.004 +7.7 325 317 −321 −0.017 7.9 0.95 0.66
17   OAK 8–8 100 +0.004 +1.0 −0.053 −73.8 359 433 −122 +0.013 9.5 1.25 0.68
18   CAR 6–10 100 +0.004 +2.3 −0.020 −22.7 406 429 +195 +0.050 8.0 1.14 0.71
19   SEA 7–9 99 −0.009 −2.7 +0.003 +6.5 321 315 −454 −0.083 7.5 1.12 0.73
20   NYG 9–7 98 −0.020 −8.5 −0.004 −5.8 394 400 +161 +0.037 6.7 1.56 0.76
21   NYJ 8–8 97 −0.026 −10.9 +0.014 +14.0 377 363 −4 −0.067 7.4 1.08 0.70
22   ARI 8–8 94 −0.056 −19.4 −0.034 −36.3 312 348 −490 −0.097 7.2 1.49 0.77
23   BUF 6–10 94 −0.058 −18.3 −0.048 −62.2 372 434 −314 −0.022 6.1 0.94 0.63
24   KC 7–9 94 −0.061 −21.3 −0.096 −125.7 212 338 −360 −0.105 6.7 1.09 0.69
25   WAS 5–11 94 −0.062 −23.4 −0.059 −78.5 288 367 −72 −0.076 5.3 1.10 0.74
26   DEN 8–8 92 −0.074 −27.4 −0.061 −80.8 309 390 −659 −0.082 4.4 1.37 0.75
27   JAX 5–11 91 −0.086 −28.6 −0.066 −86.3 243 329 −859 −0.136 5.6 0.90 0.68
28   MIN 3–13 91 −0.089 −29.8 −0.082 −108.7 340 449 −456 −0.066 5.6 1.17 0.67
29   CLE 4–12 90 −0.097 −35.5 −0.068 −88.4 218 307 −697 −0.090 5.3 1.01 0.74
30   IND 2–14 82 −0.176 −56.0 −0.147 −186.5 243 430 −1,346 −0.129 3.1 0.81 0.65
31   STL 2–14 81 −0.181 −60.6 −0.159 −213.8 193 407 −1,197 −0.205 2.1 0.83 0.64
32   TB 4–12 79 −0.203 −58.9 −0.162 −207.0 287 494 −1,203 −0.082 3.3 0.80 0.59

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 A.Rodgers   GB 123 +0.408 +55.8 +0.382 +205.6 +0.415 +223.4 501 4,636 9.3 45 6
2 D.Brees   NO 117 +0.309 +51.6 +0.299 +192.7 +0.310 +200.3 660 5,535 8.4 46 14
3 M.Schaub   HOU 115 +0.288 +24.7 +0.207 +63.6 +0.206 +63.5 292 2,479 8.5 15 6
4 T.Brady   NE 114 +0.271 +49.3 +0.279 +179.2 +0.301 +193.3 611 5,235 8.6 39 12
5 T.Romo   DAL 111 +0.229 +34.2 +0.178 +99.2 +0.152 +84.9 522 4,184 8.0 31 10
6 C.Palmer   OAK 109 +0.183 +14.8 +0.067 +23.2 +0.073 +25.1 328 2,753 8.4 13 16
7 P.Rivers   SD 108 +0.173 +27.9 +0.157 +96.4 +0.168 +102.7 582 4,624 7.9 27 20
8 J.Cutler   CHI 108 +0.172 +13.7 +0.025 +8.3 −0.005 −1.6 314 2,319 7.4 13 7
9 M.Ryan   ATL 107 +0.162 +24.3 +0.141 +83.4 +0.134 +79.3 566 4,177 7.4 29 12
10 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 106 +0.146 +20.6 +0.109 +60.3 +0.123 +67.9 513 4,077 7.9 21 14
11 M.Stafford   DET 106 +0.143 +24.2 +0.141 +93.1 +0.111 +72.8 673 5,100 7.6 41 16
12 M.Vick   PHI 106 +0.139 +16.6 +0.084 +37.4 +0.076 +33.8 423 3,303 7.8 18 14
13 J.Flacco   BAL 104 +0.107 +15.2 +0.046 +26.6 +0.053 +30.5 542 3,610 6.7 20 12
14 E.Manning   NYG 103 +0.091 +15.8 +0.131 +80.9 +0.137 +84.3 589 4,933 8.4 29 16
15 C.Newton   CAR 102 +0.080 +12.3 +0.083 +45.9 +0.058 +32.2 517 4,051 7.8 21 17
16 M.Cassel   KC 100 +0.057 +4.0 −0.064 −18.6 −0.086 −24.9 269 1,713 6.4 10 9
17 Alex Smith   SF 100 +0.048 +6.1 +0.052 +22.6 +0.055 +23.8 445 3,144 7.1 17 5
18 M.Hasselbeck   TEN 99 +0.039 +5.4 +0.014 +7.4 −0.015 −8.3 518 3,571 6.9 18 14
19 R.Fitzpatrick   BUF 99 +0.030 +4.3 −0.001 −0.6 −0.020 −12.1 569 3,832 6.7 24 23
20 A.Dalton   CIN 98 +0.024 +3.9 +0.032 +17.2 −0.003 −1.7 516 3,398 6.6 20 13
21 M.Moore   MIA 98 +0.014 +1.6 −0.022 −8.6 −0.034 −13.1 347 2,497 7.2 16 9
22 R.Grossman   WAS 97 +0.009 +1.3 −0.018 −8.7 −0.037 −18.0 458 3,151 6.9 16 20
23 T.Jackson   SEA 94 −0.040 −5.3 −0.017 −8.3 −0.030 −14.8 450 3,091 6.9 14 13
24 C.McCoy   CLE 94 −0.047 −5.9 −0.056 −27.9 −0.072 −35.8 463 2,733 5.9 14 11
25 K.Kolb   ARI 93 −0.065 −5.3 −0.048 −13.7 −0.045 −12.9 253 1,955 7.7 9 8
26 J.Freeman   TB 92 −0.078 −9.7 −0.094 −55.0 −0.104 −61.1 551 3,592 6.5 16 22
27 D.Orlovsky   IND 92 −0.079 −3.4 +0.041 +8.5 +0.001 +0.3 193 1,201 6.2 6 4
28 M.Sanchez   NYJ 88 −0.140 −22.3 −0.109 −63.6 −0.127 −74.1 543 3,474 6.4 26 18
29 C.Painter   IND 88 −0.142 −9.9 −0.161 −41.8 −0.226 −58.7 243 1,541 6.3 6 9
30 C.Ponder   MIN 87 −0.150 −11.5 −0.122 −39.3 −0.192 −61.7 291 1,853 6.4 13 13
31 J.Skelton   ARI 86 −0.163 −14.3 −0.141 −41.9 −0.189 −56.3 275 1,913 7.0 11 14
32 B.Gabbert   JAX 86 −0.167 −19.6 −0.197 −89.3 −0.240 −108.8 413 2,214 5.4 12 11
33 S.Bradford   STL 85 −0.179 −17.1 −0.161 −63.3 −0.223 −87.5 357 2,164 6.1 6 6
34 T.Tebow   DEN 85 −0.184 −12.9 −0.229 −70.0 −0.220 −67.0 271 1,729 6.4 12 6

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2011 row, on GitHub .