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History: 2015

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   CAR 15–1 122 +0.187 +63.8 +0.141 +191.7 500 308 +704 +0.060 13.2 1.07 0.65
2   ARI 13–3 118 +0.149 +50.4 +0.132 +177.0 489 313 +1,386 +0.082 12.9 0.93 0.66
3   NE 12–4 115 +0.129 +44.0 +0.109 +149.2 465 315 +560 +0.071 11.8 0.96 0.65
4   KC 11–5 115 +0.126 +39.5 +0.090 +117.5 405 287 +30 +0.019 11.6 0.96 0.63
5   CIN 12–4 114 +0.117 +40.1 +0.106 +139.8 419 279 +275 +0.049 11.2 0.94 0.68
6   SEA 10–6 113 +0.108 +36.2 +0.112 +145.4 423 277 +1,390 +0.064 11.7 0.98 0.68
7   MIN 11–5 108 +0.069 +23.3 +0.050 +63.3 365 302 −368 +0.007 9.8 0.88 0.69
8   PIT 10–6 107 +0.060 +22.4 +0.079 +105.1 423 319 +518 +0.036 9.7 1.19 0.73
9   DEN 12–4 106 +0.048 +19.6 +0.043 +59.2 355 296 +1,158 −0.068 10.6 1.44 0.77
10   NYJ 10–6 105 +0.043 +13.8 +0.056 +73.6 387 314 +827 −0.020 9.5 0.93 0.66
11   WAS 9–7 104 +0.037 +11.8 +0.007 +9.3 388 379 −429 −0.002 8.9 0.91 0.64
12   GB 10–6 104 +0.033 +11.8 +0.033 +45.0 368 323 −197 −0.009 9.2 1.22 0.67
13   NYG 6–10 99 −0.004 −2.0 −0.015 −22.5 420 442 −773 +0.018 8.2 1.33 0.73
14   DET 7–9 99 −0.006 −2.1 −0.033 −41.8 358 400 −44 −0.022 7.9 1.37 0.67
15   HOU 9–7 99 −0.007 −2.9 +0.024 +26.2 339 313 +601 −0.067 8.3 0.73 0.62
16   NO 7–9 99 −0.010 −1.6 −0.056 −67.5 408 476 −154 +0.028 7.2 1.11 0.69
17   ATL 8–8 98 −0.012 −3.5 −0.006 −6.6 339 345 +423 −0.023 8.4 1.13 0.75
18   STL 7–9 98 −0.017 −3.6 −0.045 −49.5 280 330 −1,124 −0.156 7.8 1.06 0.70
19   OAK 7–9 96 −0.030 −11.3 −0.029 −40.3 359 399 −482 −0.034 6.7 1.32 0.73
20   PHI 7–9 96 −0.030 −11.9 −0.036 −52.8 377 430 −596 −0.050 6.8 1.14 0.70
21   IND 8–8* 96 −0.032 −11.3 −0.049 −63.0 333 408 −886 −0.084 6.4 1.30 0.73
22   BUF 8–8* 96 −0.033 −10.7 +0.006 +7.5 379 359 +35 +0.004 5.9 0.96 0.68
23   TB 6–10 92 −0.064 −22.7 −0.056 −75.6 342 417 +568 −0.032 6.6 0.95 0.68
24   SD 4–12 92 −0.065 −23.6 −0.060 −78.6 320 398 +158 −0.026 6.5 1.07 0.72
25   DAL 4–12 92 −0.068 −26.2 −0.077 −98.8 275 374 −205 −0.069 5.1 1.19 0.78
26   CHI 6–10 91 −0.074 −27.7 −0.048 −62.0 335 397 −13 −0.021 5.7 1.39 0.77
27   BAL 5–11 91 −0.076 −31.3 −0.054 −73.5 328 401 +351 −0.059 4.6 1.64 0.79
28   MIA 6–10 90 −0.083 −27.4 −0.058 −78.8 310 389 −712 −0.051 5.4 0.85 0.65
29   JAX 5–11 89 −0.093 −35.8 −0.052 −72.0 376 448 −419 −0.049 4.5 1.31 0.73
30   TEN 3–13 87 −0.106 −34.2 −0.096 −123.0 299 423 −487 −0.092 5.2 1.05 0.66
31   CLE 3–13 85 −0.125 −43.8 −0.116 −154.6 278 432 −756 −0.091 3.0 1.17 0.68
32   SF 5–11 85 −0.127 −43.0 −0.113 −148.5 238 387 −1,339 −0.100 4.5 0.94 0.66

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 A.Dalton   CIN 118 +0.256 +29.4 +0.248 +100.7 +0.277 +112.4 386 3,250 8.4 25 7
2 C.Palmer   ARI 118 +0.250 +39.1 +0.250 +140.4 +0.253 +142.1 537 4,671 8.7 35 11
3 D.Brees   NO 117 +0.236 +40.2 +0.176 +115.8 +0.138 +90.8 627 4,870 7.8 32 11
4 R.Wilson   SEA 116 +0.227 +31.5 +0.217 +115.3 +0.236 +125.3 483 4,024 8.3 34 8
5 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 113 +0.194 +28.0 +0.202 +100.9 +0.183 +91.3 469 3,938 8.4 21 16
6 K.Cousins   WAS 112 +0.191 +27.3 +0.174 +99.4 +0.156 +89.1 543 4,166 7.7 29 11
7 T.Brady   NE 110 +0.161 +27.5 +0.170 +112.8 +0.176 +116.8 624 4,770 7.6 36 7
8 M.Ryan   ATL 107 +0.130 +24.9 +0.132 +85.4 +0.105 +68.0 614 4,591 7.5 21 16
9 E.Manning   NYG 106 +0.125 +22.3 +0.092 +59.3 +0.076 +49.3 618 4,432 7.2 35 14
10 C.Newton   CAR 106 +0.124 +17.9 +0.131 +69.2 +0.135 +71.3 495 3,837 7.8 35 10
11 R.Fitzpatrick   NYJ 105 +0.106 +16.8 +0.111 +64.2 +0.096 +56.0 562 3,905 6.9 31 15
12 B.Hoyer   HOU 104 +0.101 +8.6 +0.042 +16.5 +0.019 +7.6 369 2,606 7.1 19 7
13 M.Stafford   DET 102 +0.083 +13.6 +0.061 +39.1 +0.013 +8.3 592 4,262 7.2 32 13
14 P.Rivers   SD 102 +0.078 +14.7 +0.078 +55.1 +0.071 +50.0 661 4,792 7.2 29 13
15 B.Osweiler   DEN 101 +0.070 +5.7 +0.034 +10.0 −0.018 −5.3 275 1,967 7.2 10 6
16 A.Smith   KC 101 +0.069 +8.6 +0.033 +17.2 +0.025 +13.1 470 3,486 7.4 20 7
17 J.Winston   TB 101 +0.064 +8.8 +0.085 +48.0 +0.065 +36.7 535 4,042 7.6 22 15
18 T.Taylor   BUF 101 +0.064 +6.6 +0.088 +35.2 +0.084 +33.5 380 3,035 8.0 20 6
19 J.Manziel   CLE 100 +0.061 +3.0 −0.037 −8.9 −0.087 −21.1 223 1,500 6.7 7 5
20 M.Hasselbeck   IND 100 +0.055 +4.8 +0.031 +8.4 −0.020 −5.4 256 1,690 6.6 9 5
21 J.Cutler   CHI 99 +0.051 +8.0 +0.071 +36.6 +0.052 +26.7 483 3,659 7.6 21 11
22 T.Bridgewater   MIN 97 +0.027 +3.7 +0.001 +0.6 −0.008 −4.1 447 3,231 7.2 14 9
23 D.Carr   OAK 96 +0.013 +2.3 −0.002 −1.1 −0.010 −6.3 573 3,987 7.0 32 13
24 A.Rodgers   GB 96 +0.013 +2.1 0.000 −0.2 −0.014 −8.6 572 3,821 6.7 31 8
25 S.Bradford   PHI 95 +0.003 +0.5 +0.022 +12.5 −0.009 −5.0 532 3,725 7.0 19 14
26 J.McCown   CLE 95 +0.001 +0.1 +0.054 +17.1 +0.012 +3.8 292 2,109 7.2 12 4
27 J.Flacco   BAL 94 −0.007 −0.9 +0.018 +7.9 +0.001 +0.4 413 2,791 6.8 14 12
28 M.Mariota   TEN 94 −0.008 −0.8 +0.011 +4.4 −0.017 −7.1 370 2,818 7.6 19 10
29 R.Tannehill   MIA 93 −0.017 −2.5 +0.013 +8.0 −0.012 −7.4 586 4,208 7.2 24 12
30 B.Bortles   JAX 91 −0.038 −6.9 +0.009 +6.1 −0.002 −1.0 606 4,428 7.3 35 18
31 P.Manning   DEN 88 −0.071 −7.9 −0.062 −21.5 −0.099 −34.5 331 2,249 6.8 9 17
32 A.Luck   IND 87 −0.086 −5.0 −0.013 −3.4 −0.041 −10.5 293 1,881 6.4 15 12
33 C.Kaepernick   SF 87 −0.087 −5.1 −0.068 −18.7 −0.100 −27.3 244 1,615 6.6 6 5
34 B.Gabbert   SF 86 −0.096 −7.8 −0.066 −20.3 −0.122 −37.6 282 2,031 7.2 10 7
35 M.Cassel   DAL 83 −0.132 −8.5 −0.123 −26.8 −0.191 −41.9 204 1,276 6.3 5 7
36 N.Foles   STL 79 −0.171 −15.1 −0.195 −68.7 −0.286 −100.5 337 2,052 6.1 7 10

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2015 row, on GitHub .