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History: 2024

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   DET 15–2 118 +0.158 +55.3 +0.158 +221.2 564 342 +1,142 +0.136 13.2 0.89 0.65
2   MIN 14–3 114 +0.130 +47.0 +0.071 +98.2 432 332 +196 +0.010 13.2 1.14 0.70
3   PHI 14–3 114 +0.125 +47.1 +0.114 +158.5 463 303 +1,510 +0.076 13.8 1.09 0.72
4   BAL 12–5 113 +0.120 +42.2 +0.116 +157.8 518 361 +1,688 +0.145 12.1 0.93 0.67
5   BUF 13–4 112 +0.110 +39.1 +0.117 +157.8 525 368 +299 +0.131 12.3 0.81 0.67
6   LAC 11–6 110 +0.092 +33.4 +0.077 +102.0 402 301 −3 +0.026 11.2 0.80 0.72
7   WAS 12–5 109 +0.081 +28.5 +0.062 +92.2 485 391 +726 +0.104 10.7 1.24 0.69
8   KC 15–2 109 +0.079 +32.9 +0.042 +59.8 385 326 +119 +0.045 12.6 0.93 0.77
9   GB 11–6 108 +0.071 +23.5 +0.091 +122.1 460 338 +956 +0.061 10.9 0.91 0.65
10   HOU 10–7 106 +0.058 +22.5 0.000 +1.0 372 372 +80 −0.033 10.7 1.07 0.73
11   DEN 10–7 106 +0.056 +19.8 +0.083 +115.3 425 311 +127 +0.007 9.8 0.98 0.66
12   TB 10–7 105 +0.045 +16.5 +0.083 +116.3 502 385 +983 +0.101 10.2 1.07 0.70
13   CIN 9–8 105 +0.044 +19.1 +0.028 +39.5 472 434 +293 +0.078 9.9 1.23 0.75
14   PIT 10–7 102 +0.018 +7.3 +0.024 +33.8 380 347 −124 −0.008 9.7 1.15 0.75
15   SF 6–11 101 +0.011 +4.7 −0.037 −47.5 389 436 +1,004 +0.016 8.9 0.96 0.69
16   ATL 8–9 99 −0.011 −4.1 −0.026 −34.5 389 423 +419 −0.001 7.8 1.35 0.78
17   SEA 10–7 99 −0.012 −5.3 +0.005 +6.2 375 368 −9 −0.013 9.1 1.19 0.75
18   LA 10–7 98 −0.014 −6.3 −0.013 −20.2 367 386 −370 +0.005 8.1 1.09 0.78
19   ARI 8–9 98 −0.017 −5.4 +0.014 +20.2 400 379 +267 +0.043 7.3 0.85 0.69
20   NO 5–12 97 −0.026 −11.2 −0.041 −60.8 338 398 −1,017 −0.070 6.9 1.12 0.70
21   MIA 8–9 97 −0.026 −9.5 −0.014 −17.8 345 364 +187 −0.035 8.0 0.84 0.72
22   NYJ 5–12 96 −0.036 −14.8 −0.046 −65.5 338 404 −59 −0.028 6.8 1.22 0.76
23   IND 8–9 96 −0.038 −15.5 −0.034 −48.8 377 427 −448 −0.060 6.4 1.16 0.76
24   DAL 7–10 93 −0.064 −21.5 −0.086 −118.3 350 468 −472 −0.081 6.9 1.22 0.67
25   JAX 4–13 93 −0.066 −28.5 −0.075 −114.2 320 435 −1,423 −0.013 5.8 1.05 0.73
26   CHI 5–12 88 −0.103 −35.3 −0.047 −61.2 310 370 −1,202 −0.070 4.7 1.04 0.68
27   LV 4–13 88 −0.111 −43.0 −0.089 −124.2 309 434 −484 −0.140 3.4 0.87 0.73
28   NE 4–13 87 −0.112 −39.5 −0.094 −126.7 289 417 −868 −0.092 4.7 0.87 0.68
29   CAR 5–12 87 −0.116 −43.5 −0.132 −194.0 341 534 −1,811 −0.064 4.9 0.95 0.65
30   NYG 3–14 85 −0.131 −47.5 −0.105 −143.5 273 415 −885 −0.107 4.1 1.04 0.70
31   TEN 3–14 85 −0.134 −45.8 −0.111 −148.2 311 460 −119 −0.121 4.5 0.86 0.68
32   CLE 3–14 81 −0.171 −62.1 −0.124 −176.7 258 435 −702 −0.185 3.3 0.94 0.68

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 L.Jackson   BAL 119 +0.256 +36.3 +0.287 +143.2 +0.337 +168.3 474 4,172 8.8 41 4
2 J.Goff   DET 118 +0.242 +36.3 +0.275 +157.0 +0.274 +156.5 539 4,629 8.6 37 12
3 J.Allen   BUF 113 +0.195 +27.0 +0.221 +110.0 +0.261 +130.1 483 3,731 7.7 28 6
4 B.Purdy   SF 113 +0.194 +26.1 +0.165 +80.6 +0.160 +77.8 455 3,864 8.5 20 12
5 D.Carr   NO 111 +0.172 +15.3 +0.151 +43.9 +0.146 +42.3 279 2,145 7.7 15 5
6 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 111 +0.172 +19.8 +0.178 +75.2 +0.203 +85.8 399 2,867 7.2 19 7
7 J.Herbert   LAC 111 +0.169 +27.3 +0.137 +75.3 +0.118 +64.9 504 3,870 7.7 23 3
8 J.Burrow   CIN 110 +0.164 +34.7 +0.140 +98.2 +0.142 +99.7 652 4,918 7.5 43 9
9 B.Mayfield   TB 109 +0.147 +24.1 +0.160 +97.8 +0.175 +107.0 570 4,500 7.9 41 16
10 S.Darnold   MIN 108 +0.138 +23.0 +0.086 +50.9 +0.060 +35.9 545 4,319 7.9 35 12
11 P.Mahomes   KC 108 +0.136 +26.5 +0.118 +72.8 +0.109 +67.5 581 3,928 6.8 26 11
12 K.Cousins   ATL 106 +0.117 +17.6 +0.075 +35.9 +0.033 +15.8 453 3,508 7.7 18 16
13 J.Love   GB 106 +0.114 +12.2 +0.137 +60.4 +0.120 +53.2 425 3,389 8.0 25 11
14 J.Hurts   PHI 105 +0.101 +12.4 +0.110 +44.1 +0.101 +40.4 361 2,903 8.0 18 5
15 K.Murray   ARI 104 +0.090 +14.1 +0.109 +62.1 +0.078 +44.7 541 3,851 7.1 21 11
16 J.Daniels   WAS 102 +0.071 +10.1 +0.119 +63.3 +0.100 +53.0 480 3,568 7.4 25 9
17 C.Stroud   HOU 101 +0.061 +10.4 +0.007 +4.2 −0.022 −13.1 532 3,727 7.0 20 12
18 A.O'Connell   LV 100 +0.053 +3.4 +0.066 +16.8 +0.009 +2.4 243 1,612 6.6 8 4
19 M.Jones   JAX 100 +0.052 +3.9 +0.010 +2.7 −0.019 −5.3 262 1,672 6.4 8 8
20 M.Stafford   LA 100 +0.048 +7.8 +0.085 +46.6 +0.060 +32.9 517 3,762 7.3 20 8
21 D.Prescott   DAL 98 +0.034 +2.6 −0.038 −11.6 −0.062 −19.0 286 1,978 6.9 11 8
22 G.Smith   SEA 98 +0.033 +5.9 +0.046 +28.8 +0.005 +3.0 578 4,320 7.5 21 15
23 A.Rodgers   NYJ 98 +0.026 +4.7 +0.010 +6.0 −0.002 −1.3 584 3,897 6.7 28 11
24 B.Young   CAR 97 +0.022 +2.2 −0.040 −16.5 −0.073 −30.3 384 2,403 6.3 15 9
25 B.Nix   DEN 97 +0.020 +3.1 +0.065 +38.7 +0.030 +17.6 567 3,775 6.7 29 12
26 C.Rush   DAL 97 +0.015 +1.2 −0.037 −12.0 −0.100 −32.3 308 1,844 6.0 12 5
27 T.Lawrence   JAX 96 +0.013 +1.0 +0.008 +2.6 −0.011 −3.4 284 2,045 7.2 11 7
28 M.Rudolph   TEN 96 +0.012 +0.6 −0.005 −1.1 −0.023 −5.5 228 1,530 6.7 9 9
29 D.Maye   NE 96 +0.006 +0.5 −0.037 −13.8 −0.085 −31.7 338 2,276 6.7 15 10
30 R.Wilson   PIT 96 +0.005 +0.5 +0.018 +6.8 −0.013 −4.7 336 2,482 7.4 16 5
31 J.Flacco   IND 96 +0.002 +0.2 +0.049 +13.1 +0.008 +2.1 248 1,761 7.1 12 7
32 D.Jones   NYG 93 −0.031 −3.2 −0.067 −25.2 −0.102 −38.1 341 2,070 6.1 8 7
33 J.Winston   CLE 89 −0.071 −5.9 −0.040 −12.9 −0.093 −30.5 296 2,121 7.2 13 12
34 G.Minshew   LV 86 −0.102 −9.5 −0.077 −25.9 −0.137 −46.0 306 2,013 6.6 9 10
35 C.Williams   CHI 86 −0.104 −16.7 −0.054 −34.5 −0.087 −56.0 562 3,541 6.3 20 6
36 D.Watson   CLE 84 −0.124 −8.0 −0.173 −43.2 −0.246 −61.5 216 1,148 5.3 5 3
37 S.Rattler   NO 83 −0.138 −7.6 −0.231 −58.0 −0.338 −84.8 228 1,317 5.8 4 5
38 A.Richardson   IND 82 −0.147 −11.3 −0.116 −32.4 −0.158 −44.2 264 1,814 6.9 8 12
39 W.Levis   TEN 79 −0.175 −15.2 −0.133 −45.7 −0.190 −65.5 301 2,091 6.9 13 12

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2024 row, on GitHub .