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History: 2016

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   NE 14–2 126 +0.199 +63.0 +0.142 +191.2 441 250 +957 +0.108 13.2 0.74 0.62
2   ATL 11–5 120 +0.154 +49.7 +0.106 +133.8 540 406 +714 +0.166 12.1 0.89 0.65
3   DAL 13–3 115 +0.116 +42.6 +0.089 +116.0 421 306 +524 +0.085 11.9 0.96 0.73
4   KC 12–4 110 +0.078 +25.8 +0.058 +77.5 389 311 −408 +0.007 10.4 1.08 0.66
5   PIT 11–5 108 +0.063 +21.0 +0.054 +71.8 399 327 +480 +0.058 9.7 0.94 0.66
6   GB 10–6 106 +0.049 +18.6 +0.030 +44.3 432 388 +74 +0.091 10.2 0.88 0.69
7   SEA 10.5–5.5 105 +0.040 +14.3 +0.046 +61.5 354 292 +616 −0.009 9.6 1.27 0.70
8   NYG 11–5 103 +0.021 +8.7 +0.018 +26.2 310 284 −144 −0.071 9.6 1.33 0.78
9   OAK 12–4 103 +0.019 +8.7 +0.020 +30.7 416 385 −28 +0.025 8.5 1.10 0.74
10   BAL 8–8 102 +0.018 +6.3 +0.017 +22.2 343 321 +409 −0.040 8.1 1.18 0.73
11   TEN 9–7 102 +0.012 +3.7 +0.003 +3.0 381 378 +8 +0.021 8.0 0.93 0.64
12   ARI 7.5–8.5 101 +0.009 +2.8 +0.042 +57.1 418 362 +985 −0.038 8.4 1.31 0.69
13   MIN 8–8 101 +0.008 +2.5 +0.015 +19.8 327 307 +3 −0.063 9.0 0.93 0.68
14   IND 8–8 101 +0.006 +3.0 +0.013 +19.0 411 392 −296 +0.044 7.1 0.98 0.69
15   DEN 9–7 101 +0.006 +2.5 +0.024 +36.3 333 297 +112 −0.066 8.9 1.09 0.69
16   SD 5–11 100 +0.004 +1.4 −0.009 −12.5 410 423 +154 −0.009 7.7 1.41 0.72
17   CAR 6–10 100 +0.003 +0.9 −0.024 −33.2 369 402 −257 −0.047 8.3 1.03 0.65
18   CIN 6.5–9.5 100 +0.002 +0.6 +0.007 +9.8 325 315 +99 +0.015 7.5 1.09 0.71
19   WAS 8.5–7.5 100 +0.001 +0.4 +0.011 +12.5 396 383 +408 +0.069 7.6 1.47 0.78
20   DET 9–7 99 −0.010 −3.4 −0.010 −12.0 346 358 −255 +0.043 8.0 1.23 0.78
21   BUF 7–9 99 −0.011 −4.5 +0.016 +20.4 399 378 −46 +0.024 7.2 0.90 0.72
22   TB 9–7 98 −0.012 −4.6 −0.012 −15.2 354 369 −345 −0.026 8.3 1.09 0.74
23   PHI 7–9 98 −0.014 −4.4 +0.027 +35.7 367 331 −86 −0.026 7.2 1.02 0.70
24   HOU 9–7 97 −0.022 −9.2 −0.034 −48.7 279 328 +217 −0.095 8.2 0.92 0.72
25   MIA 10–6* 97 −0.023 −8.4 −0.031 −39.6 363 380 −741 −0.048 7.4 1.53 0.70
26   NO 7–9 96 −0.031 −7.5 +0.004 +15.6 469 454 +810 +0.061 7.2 1.03 0.70
27   NYJ 5–11* 89 −0.086 −26.9 −0.093 −112.0 275 409 −268 −0.075 5.6 0.84 0.69
28   JAX 3–13 88 −0.089 −32.8 −0.060 −82.3 318 400 +212 −0.061 4.3 1.11 0.72
29   LA 4–12 88 −0.094 −32.0 −0.132 −169.7 224 394 −1,189 −0.160 5.4 1.00 0.70
30   CHI 3–13 87 −0.101 −34.5 −0.092 −120.0 279 399 +156 −0.070 4.6 0.81 0.68
31   SF 2–14 79 −0.158 −52.5 −0.125 −171.2 309 480 −1,572 −0.091 2.8 0.74 0.63
32   CLE 1–15 79 −0.159 −55.7 −0.141 −188.2 264 452 −1,303 −0.064 2.8 1.01 0.68

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 M.Ryan   ATL 119 +0.314 +48.4 +0.283 +163.0 +0.296 +170.2 534 4,944 9.3 38 7
2 T.Brady   NE 119 +0.308 +36.4 +0.285 +127.9 +0.305 +136.9 432 3,554 8.2 28 2
3 D.Prescott   DAL 111 +0.205 +29.9 +0.221 +107.5 +0.216 +105.1 459 3,667 8.0 23 4
4 B.Hoyer   CHI 110 +0.197 +9.4 +0.139 +28.4 +0.129 +26.4 200 1,445 7.2 6 0
5 K.Cousins   WAS 109 +0.190 +36.2 +0.181 +114.3 +0.165 +104.1 606 4,917 8.1 25 12
6 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 109 +0.182 +24.4 +0.162 +86.5 +0.157 +83.9 509 3,819 7.5 29 13
7 D.Brees   NO 107 +0.168 +31.1 +0.174 +121.9 +0.142 +100.0 673 5,208 7.7 37 15
8 A.Rodgers   GB 107 +0.165 +29.5 +0.186 +120.6 +0.190 +123.0 610 4,428 7.3 40 7
9 M.Stafford   DET 106 +0.145 +26.9 +0.141 +89.5 +0.117 +74.0 594 4,327 7.3 24 10
10 D.Carr   OAK 105 +0.143 +25.3 +0.134 +77.9 +0.138 +80.2 560 3,937 7.0 28 6
11 A.Dalton   CIN 103 +0.111 +18.1 +0.103 +61.9 +0.079 +47.6 563 4,206 7.5 18 8
12 P.Rivers   SD 102 +0.105 +18.1 +0.075 +46.1 +0.059 +36.5 578 4,386 7.6 33 21
13 M.Mariota   TEN 102 +0.101 +12.0 +0.120 +57.4 +0.102 +48.6 451 3,426 7.6 26 9
14 S.Bradford   MIN 102 +0.098 +14.2 +0.102 +60.1 +0.060 +35.3 552 3,877 7.0 20 5
15 R.Wilson   SEA 102 +0.097 +15.8 +0.061 +35.7 +0.061 +35.8 546 4,219 7.7 21 11
16 A.Smith   KC 101 +0.088 +11.0 +0.085 +43.9 +0.085 +44.2 489 3,502 7.2 15 8
17 J.Winston   TB 101 +0.087 +14.6 +0.091 +55.2 +0.088 +53.3 567 4,090 7.2 28 18
18 C.Kessler   CLE 101 +0.086 +5.2 +0.106 +23.1 +0.097 +21.2 195 1,380 7.1 6 2
19 R.Fitzpatrick   NYJ 99 +0.061 +6.8 −0.020 −8.4 −0.064 −26.3 403 2,710 6.7 12 17
20 A.Luck   IND 99 +0.060 +9.6 +0.089 +52.5 +0.093 +54.8 545 4,240 7.8 31 13
21 T.Taylor   BUF 98 +0.050 +6.6 +0.066 +31.8 +0.071 +34.1 436 3,023 6.9 17 6
22 M.Barkley   CHI 97 +0.044 +2.3 +0.055 +12.1 −0.005 −1.2 216 1,611 7.5 8 14
23 C.Palmer   ARI 97 +0.040 +6.6 +0.058 +37.1 +0.031 +19.8 597 4,233 7.1 26 14
24 T.Siemian   DEN 97 +0.039 +5.5 +0.016 +8.1 −0.020 −10.2 486 3,401 7.0 18 10
25 R.Tannehill   MIA 97 +0.036 +3.9 +0.044 +18.4 +0.017 +7.1 389 2,995 7.7 19 12
26 C.Wentz   PHI 96 +0.023 +4.0 +0.031 +20.0 +0.014 +8.8 607 3,782 6.2 16 14
27 E.Manning   NYG 96 +0.021 +3.9 +0.014 +8.6 −0.038 −23.6 598 4,027 6.7 26 16
28 J.Flacco   BAL 94 +0.008 +1.6 −0.008 −5.8 −0.042 −30.1 672 4,317 6.4 20 15
29 C.Newton   CAR 92 −0.023 −3.0 −0.023 −12.4 −0.050 −27.5 510 3,509 6.9 19 14
30 C.Kaepernick   SF 92 −0.027 −2.3 −0.010 −3.8 −0.065 −23.9 331 2,241 6.8 16 4
31 C.Keenum   LA 91 −0.031 −3.2 −0.062 −21.2 −0.119 −41.1 322 2,201 6.8 9 11
32 B.Osweiler   HOU 90 −0.047 −6.2 −0.062 −33.3 −0.095 −50.9 510 2,957 5.8 15 16
33 B.Bortles   JAX 88 −0.069 −11.5 −0.025 −16.3 −0.074 −48.7 625 3,905 6.2 23 16
34 J.Goff   LA 62 −0.391 −18.4 −0.320 −74.0 −0.415 −96.0 205 1,089 5.3 5 7

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2016 row, on GitHub .