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History: 2006

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   SD 14–2 119 +0.140 +46.8 +0.147 +190.0 492 303 +1,014 +0.119 12.8 1.04 0.67
2   BAL 13–3 118 +0.131 +40.0 +0.124 +151.0 353 201 +847 −0.047 10.7 1.06 0.66
3   NE 12–4 116 +0.115 +39.8 +0.118 +150.9 385 237 +661 +0.004 11.0 0.90 0.70
4   CHI 13–3 115 +0.113 +35.0 +0.126 +172.0 427 255 +475 −0.051 10.7 1.11 0.60
5   IND 12–4 110 +0.076 +28.0 +0.048 +66.0 427 360 +749 +0.111 11.7 1.11 0.73
6   PHI 10–6 109 +0.064 +21.9 +0.053 +69.0 398 328 +820 −0.005 10.2 1.18 0.69
7   NO 10–6* 108 +0.059 +20.9 +0.076 +99.5 413 322 +1,366 +0.040 9.6 0.91 0.70
8   NYJ 10–6 108 +0.055 +17.9 +0.018 +22.9 316 295 −412 −0.031 9.7 0.93 0.65
9   CIN 8–8 106 +0.046 +15.3 +0.033 +42.0 373 331 −218 +0.034 9.1 1.01 0.69
10   DEN 9–7 106 +0.041 +15.6 +0.012 +15.9 319 305 −269 −0.056 9.3 1.06 0.76
11   JAX 8–8 104 +0.030 +9.5 +0.076 +97.0 371 274 +885 −0.037 9.2 0.88 0.67
12   KC 9–7 102 +0.015 +4.5 +0.011 +14.1 331 315 −119 −0.018 8.5 1.16 0.67
13   NYG 8–8 101 +0.011 +3.9 −0.008 −9.9 355 362 −265 −0.050 8.4 0.92 0.68
14   DAL 9–7 101 +0.010 +3.9 +0.055 +72.1 425 350 +607 +0.037 8.5 1.21 0.73
15   CAR 8–8* 101 +0.007 +2.7 −0.041 −49.3 270 305 +170 −0.076 8.7 1.15 0.77
16   SEA 9–7 101 +0.006 +2.2 −0.003 −5.0 335 341 −302 −0.090 7.4 1.28 0.70
17   PIT 8–8 101 +0.005 +1.8 +0.032 +40.9 353 315 +913 −0.023 8.5 1.20 0.68
18   GB 8–8 99 −0.005 −2.0 −0.047 −65.0 301 366 +306 −0.108 8.2 1.07 0.68
19   BUF 7–9 99 −0.006 −2.0 −0.011 −12.0 300 311 −1,008 −0.091 7.7 1.12 0.72
20   ATL 7–9 97 −0.021 −7.4 −0.025 −32.2 292 328 −15 −0.087 6.7 1.10 0.73
21   STL 8–8 96 −0.025 −6.9 −0.019 −15.0 367 381 +405 +0.012 8.3 1.25 0.73
22   MIA 6–10 96 −0.029 −11.3 −0.016 −22.0 260 283 +335 −0.117 6.1 1.08 0.75
23   TEN 8–8 95 −0.036 −13.4 −0.057 −76.0 324 400 −1,100 −0.090 6.5 1.23 0.71
24   ARI 5–11 93 −0.050 −15.6 −0.058 −75.0 314 389 −591 −0.093 6.9 1.19 0.62
25   MIN 6–10 93 −0.052 −20.6 −0.032 −45.0 282 327 +159 −0.157 7.1 1.28 0.75
26   WAS 5–11 91 −0.063 −24.7 −0.052 −68.0 307 376 −410 −0.033 4.5 1.37 0.76
27   HOU 6–10 90 −0.073 −23.7 −0.080 −99.0 267 366 −936 −0.096 5.5 0.86 0.69
28   SF 7–9 88 −0.088 −28.3 −0.089 −114.0 298 412 −636 −0.103 6.4 0.87 0.64
29   DET 3–13 86 −0.097 −36.3 −0.072 −94.0 305 398 −581 −0.109 4.1 1.06 0.74
30   CLE 4–12 84 −0.116 −37.9 −0.098 −118.9 238 356 −1,282 −0.180 4.5 1.18 0.69
31   OAK 2–14 83 −0.119 −38.8 −0.132 −162.1 168 332 −618 −0.254 4.5 0.92 0.68
32   TB 4–12 83 −0.121 −40.7 −0.112 −141.1 211 353 −950 −0.191 4.0 1.00 0.69

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Manning   IND 125 +0.312 +51.3 +0.291 +166.5 +0.291 +166.5 557 4,397 7.9 31 9
2 T.Romo   DAL 117 +0.218 +22.8 +0.234 +84.4 +0.231 +83.2 337 2,903 8.6 19 13
3 D.Brees   NO 117 +0.213 +33.8 +0.226 +128.6 +0.195 +110.9 555 4,424 8.0 26 11
4 D.Huard   KC 116 +0.198 +11.3 +0.151 +39.4 +0.112 +29.3 244 1,878 7.7 11 1
5 C.Palmer   CIN 110 +0.121 +18.7 +0.102 +56.8 +0.102 +57.0 520 4,036 7.8 28 13
6 P.Rivers   SD 108 +0.108 +14.5 +0.155 +75.6 +0.169 +82.8 460 3,387 7.4 22 9
7 M.Leinart   ARI 108 +0.100 +8.5 +0.017 +6.7 −0.008 −3.3 376 2,542 6.8 11 12
8 T.Brady   NE 107 +0.094 +14.3 +0.094 +51.3 +0.087 +47.2 517 3,533 6.8 24 12
9 M.Bulger   STL 107 +0.085 +14.7 +0.099 +63.3 +0.065 +41.3 588 4,301 7.3 24 8
10 C.Pennington   NYJ 105 +0.070 +9.7 +0.061 +31.5 +0.037 +18.8 485 3,352 6.9 17 16
11 B.Favre   GB 105 +0.069 +11.7 +0.007 +4.2 −0.016 −10.1 613 3,885 6.3 18 18
12 S.McNair   BAL 105 +0.064 +8.2 +0.058 +28.1 +0.053 +25.6 468 3,050 6.5 16 12
13 M.Brunell   WAS 105 +0.061 +4.4 +0.010 +2.8 +0.007 +2.0 261 1,789 6.9 8 4
14 D.McNabb   PHI 103 +0.038 +3.6 +0.063 +21.2 +0.072 +24.4 316 2,612 8.3 17 6
15 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 102 +0.030 +4.0 +0.008 +4.1 −0.010 −5.0 470 3,528 7.5 18 23
16 J.Delhomme   CAR 101 +0.016 +2.1 −0.018 −7.8 −0.041 −17.3 431 2,805 6.5 17 11
17 E.Manning   NYG 101 +0.015 +2.2 −0.020 −11.1 −0.040 −22.0 522 3,244 6.2 24 18
18 J.Losman   BUF 98 −0.021 −2.8 −0.036 −17.2 −0.055 −26.4 430 3,050 7.1 19 14
19 A.Smith   SF 97 −0.035 −3.9 −0.039 −18.7 −0.095 −45.8 443 2,901 6.5 16 15
20 M.Hasselbeck   SEA 97 −0.036 −4.2 −0.018 −7.3 −0.032 −13.1 371 2,442 6.6 18 15
21 T.Green   KC 97 −0.042 −2.7 −0.057 −12.6 −0.033 −7.4 198 1,342 6.8 7 9
22 J.Kitna   DET 96 −0.045 −8.3 −0.033 −21.6 −0.080 −52.9 596 4,208 7.1 21 22
23 M.Vick   ATL 95 −0.056 −6.9 −0.121 −52.3 −0.168 −72.7 389 2,474 6.4 20 13
24 J.Plummer   DEN 95 −0.057 −5.9 −0.059 −19.9 −0.090 −30.1 317 1,994 6.3 11 13
25 J.Campbell   WAS 95 −0.057 −3.5 +0.010 +2.2 −0.025 −5.3 207 1,297 6.3 10 6
26 J.Harrington   MIA 93 −0.086 −10.0 −0.066 −26.8 −0.099 −40.2 388 2,236 5.8 12 15
27 D.Carr   HOU 93 −0.089 −11.8 −0.072 −35.0 −0.113 −54.4 442 2,765 6.3 11 12
28 R.Grossman   CHI 91 −0.105 −13.8 −0.051 −25.6 −0.088 −43.9 480 3,197 6.7 23 20
29 B.Johnson   MIN 91 −0.107 −15.4 −0.118 −55.4 −0.181 −84.7 439 2,750 6.3 9 15
30 V.Young   TEN 90 −0.123 −12.3 −0.134 −51.3 −0.145 −55.5 356 2,199 6.2 12 13
31 B.Gradkowski   TB 88 −0.144 −13.5 −0.208 −73.3 −0.250 −88.2 328 1,661 5.1 9 9
32 D.Garrard   JAX 88 −0.145 −10.8 −0.103 −26.8 −0.110 −28.7 241 1,735 7.2 10 9
33 C.Frye   CLE 87 −0.165 −18.4 −0.179 −77.9 −0.199 −86.6 391 2,449 6.3 10 17
34 A.Walter   OAK 83 −0.205 −15.8 −0.300 −96.5 −0.343 −110.3 276 1,677 6.1 3 13
35 A.Brooks   OAK 82 −0.222 −12.7 −0.213 −46.5 −0.263 −57.4 192 1,105 5.8 3 8

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2006 row, on GitHub .