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History: 2009

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   GB 11–5 114 +0.147 +46.6 +0.129 +167.8 461 297 +1,514 +0.051 11.6 1.14 0.63
2   MIN 12–4 113 +0.133 +42.1 +0.116 +157.1 470 312 +1,186 +0.042 11.3 1.06 0.63
3   SD 13–3 112 +0.125 +40.2 +0.109 +135.0 454 320 +531 +0.129 11.9 1.06 0.69
4   NE 10–6 112 +0.125 +42.1 +0.106 +140.1 427 285 +1,234 +0.073 12.2 1.00 0.67
5   NO 13–3 112 +0.125 +40.0 +0.129 +170.9 510 341 +737 +0.082 11.4 1.15 0.64
6   PHI 11–5 111 +0.115 +35.2 +0.069 +90.2 429 337 +589 +0.016 11.2 0.80 0.61
7   IND 14–2 111 +0.113 +36.1 +0.091 +111.9 416 307 +382 +0.079 12.5 0.98 0.69
8   DAL 11–5 109 +0.092 +32.8 +0.087 +113.9 361 250 +1,326 +0.043 10.8 0.96 0.71
9   PIT 9–7 108 +0.082 +32.1 +0.033 +44.0 368 324 +1,053 +0.027 11.7 1.77 0.80
10   ARI 10–6 107 +0.077 +22.4 +0.038 +50.0 375 325 −38 −0.024 10.1 0.99 0.60
11   NYJ 9–7 107 +0.067 +22.6 +0.088 +109.1 348 236 +1,099 −0.075 9.3 1.04 0.69
12   BAL 9–7 105 +0.050 +16.7 +0.096 +124.3 391 261 +811 +0.023 9.2 1.11 0.70
13   HOU 9–7 103 +0.035 +13.1 +0.045 +59.8 388 333 +928 +0.021 8.6 1.10 0.69
14   CIN 10–6 102 +0.024 +8.3 +0.013 +15.0 305 291 +124 −0.050 9.2 1.49 0.71
15   ATL 9–7 102 +0.020 +7.3 +0.031 +41.8 363 325 −135 −0.009 8.3 1.05 0.70
16   CAR 8–8 102 +0.019 +5.6 +0.011 +12.7 315 308 +244 −0.071 8.2 0.89 0.68
17   SF 8–8 101 +0.007 +2.9 +0.032 +45.2 330 281 −570 −0.063 8.6 1.02 0.69
18   DEN 8–8 99 −0.008 −2.7 +0.003 +3.9 326 324 +423 −0.042 7.3 1.11 0.72
19   NYG 8–8 99 −0.010 −1.0 −0.022 −25.0 402 427 +677 +0.023 8.2 0.74 0.56
20   BUF 6–10 98 −0.024 −8.0 −0.055 −69.0 258 326 −1,067 −0.116 7.0 1.08 0.75
21   TEN 8–8 97 −0.030 −10.5 −0.034 −49.0 354 402 −227 +0.006 8.2 1.13 0.68
22   MIA 7–9 96 −0.037 −11.6 −0.033 −35.7 360 390 −189 −0.001 6.1 1.26 0.74
23   CHI 7–9 95 −0.054 −18.4 −0.037 −48.0 327 375 −439 −0.095 6.9 0.99 0.69
24   JAX 7–9 93 −0.072 −22.6 −0.078 −94.8 290 380 −244 −0.024 6.4 1.05 0.68
25   WAS 4–12 92 −0.079 −28.2 −0.058 −73.9 266 336 −107 −0.070 6.3 1.06 0.73
26   CLE 5–11 92 −0.079 −27.0 −0.097 −127.2 245 375 −2,064 −0.146 4.8 1.06 0.67
27   SEA 5–11 90 −0.101 −31.7 −0.082 −110.0 280 390 −634 −0.097 5.5 0.71 0.61
28   KC 4–12 88 −0.117 −44.2 −0.097 −131.9 294 424 −1,378 −0.105 4.5 1.17 0.73
29   OAK 5–11 85 −0.147 −51.0 −0.139 −178.2 197 379 −1,533 −0.123 3.1 1.30 0.70
30   TB 3–13 82 −0.181 −59.1 −0.124 −157.0 244 400 −1,248 −0.173 2.1 1.15 0.67
31   DET 2–14 81 −0.193 −64.4 −0.174 −232.0 262 494 −1,490 −0.173 1.9 0.90 0.66
32   STL 1–15 80 −0.198 −65.6 −0.204 −261.0 175 436 −1,495 −0.184 1.6 0.88 0.68

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Manning   IND 118 +0.329 +53.8 +0.294 +170.9 +0.290 +168.7 571 4,500 7.9 33 16
2 P.Rivers   SD 116 +0.302 +44.2 +0.312 +159.5 +0.325 +166.0 486 4,254 8.8 28 9
3 D.Brees   NO 114 +0.268 +37.8 +0.289 +154.7 +0.270 +144.6 514 4,388 8.5 34 11
4 M.Schaub   HOU 113 +0.245 +41.5 +0.206 +125.8 +0.186 +113.6 583 4,770 8.2 29 15
5 T.Brady   NE 111 +0.216 +32.5 +0.210 +122.7 +0.224 +130.7 565 4,398 7.8 28 13
6 E.Manning   NYG 110 +0.201 +25.0 +0.149 +80.3 +0.157 +84.7 509 4,021 7.9 27 14
7 B.Favre   MIN 110 +0.197 +28.8 +0.247 +140.0 +0.221 +125.2 532 4,202 7.9 33 7
8 K.Warner   ARI 109 +0.181 +23.6 +0.079 +42.7 +0.069 +37.0 514 3,758 7.3 27 14
9 A.Rodgers   GB 108 +0.177 +27.7 +0.171 +101.5 +0.189 +112.6 541 4,434 8.2 30 7
10 V.Young   TEN 108 +0.177 +13.9 +0.098 +26.2 +0.086 +22.9 259 1,879 7.3 10 7
11 T.Romo   DAL 107 +0.158 +25.1 +0.159 +92.9 +0.177 +103.1 550 4,483 8.2 26 9
12 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 107 +0.148 +25.3 +0.133 +73.7 +0.139 +77.5 506 4,328 8.6 26 12
13 D.McNabb   PHI 106 +0.145 +17.9 +0.100 +48.2 +0.075 +36.2 443 3,553 8.0 22 10
14 M.Ryan   ATL 103 +0.092 +11.3 +0.095 +44.6 +0.093 +43.6 451 2,916 6.5 22 14
15 J.Flacco   BAL 102 +0.079 +11.5 +0.091 +48.9 +0.083 +44.3 499 3,613 7.2 21 12
16 K.Orton   DEN 102 +0.073 +11.5 +0.043 +24.7 +0.038 +21.5 541 3,802 7.0 21 12
17 C.Henne   MIA 102 +0.065 +8.3 +0.025 +11.9 +0.019 +9.0 451 2,878 6.4 12 14
18 C.Palmer   CIN 100 +0.037 +5.4 +0.038 +18.7 +0.052 +25.6 466 3,094 6.6 21 13
19 J.Campbell   WAS 98 +0.013 +1.9 +0.023 +12.6 −0.012 −6.8 507 3,618 7.1 20 15
20 J.Cutler   CHI 97 −0.015 −2.4 −0.039 −23.3 −0.087 −51.4 555 3,666 6.6 27 26
21 D.Garrard   JAX 96 −0.031 −4.4 −0.028 −15.5 −0.041 −22.6 516 3,597 7.0 15 10
22 M.Stafford   DET 95 −0.035 −3.4 −0.114 −45.9 −0.190 −76.4 377 2,267 6.0 13 20
23 M.Hasselbeck   SEA 92 −0.085 −10.2 −0.082 −42.7 −0.135 −70.4 488 3,029 6.2 17 17
24 K.Collins   TEN 92 −0.089 −4.7 −0.124 −27.6 −0.123 −27.4 216 1,225 5.7 6 8
25 M.Bulger   STL 92 −0.089 −6.1 −0.125 −32.6 −0.172 −45.1 247 1,469 5.9 5 6
26 A.Smith   SF 91 −0.098 −10.7 −0.039 −15.4 −0.064 −25.2 372 2,350 6.3 18 12
27 T.Edwards   BUF 91 −0.104 −6.1 −0.151 −30.9 −0.157 −32.2 183 1,169 6.4 6 7
28 M.Sanchez   NYJ 90 −0.124 −14.2 −0.158 −62.3 −0.209 −82.5 363 2,444 6.7 12 20
29 R.Fitzpatrick   BUF 90 −0.129 −9.3 −0.137 −34.0 −0.194 −48.2 227 1,422 6.3 9 10
30 B.Quinn   CLE 89 −0.136 −9.2 −0.145 −39.9 −0.192 −52.9 256 1,339 5.2 8 7
31 M.Cassel   KC 89 −0.139 −21.2 −0.114 −61.3 −0.152 −81.5 494 2,924 5.9 16 16
32 J.Freeman   TB 89 −0.140 −11.0 −0.130 −40.7 −0.187 −58.3 291 1,857 6.4 10 18
33 J.Delhomme   CAR 88 −0.161 −14.6 −0.148 −51.2 −0.166 −57.2 321 2,015 6.3 8 18
34 J.Russell   OAK 76 −0.346 −24.8 −0.370 −103.2 −0.450 −125.5 247 1,290 5.2 3 11

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2009 row, on GitHub .