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History: 2012

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   NE 12–4 118 +0.166 +57.7 +0.155 +225.7 557 331 +874 +0.161 13.4 1.02 0.62
2   DEN 13–3 114 +0.130 +40.9 +0.139 +192.0 481 289 +1,714 +0.092 12.1 0.68 0.60
3   SF 11.5–4.5 113 +0.121 +37.4 +0.096 +124.3 397 273 +1,079 +0.057 11.8 0.95 0.62
4   ATL 13–3 111 +0.103 +35.0 +0.094 +120.6 419 299 +57 +0.069 11.0 1.08 0.70
5   SEA 11–5 109 +0.085 +30.2 +0.132 +166.7 412 245 +711 +0.093 10.2 1.29 0.74
6   HOU 12–4 109 +0.085 +27.9 +0.064 +85.6 416 331 +781 +0.033 10.9 0.99 0.62
7   CIN 10–6 109 +0.080 +29.2 +0.053 +70.5 391 320 +208 +0.005 10.4 0.93 0.71
8   GB 11–5 108 +0.075 +27.0 +0.071 +96.2 433 336 +363 +0.067 11.2 1.17 0.69
9   MIN 10–6 108 +0.075 +23.0 +0.024 +31.5 379 348 −215 +0.007 9.8 0.81 0.62
10   CHI 10–6 108 +0.074 +24.5 +0.074 +97.2 375 277 −81 −0.057 9.3 0.85 0.62
11   NYG 9–7 106 +0.057 +17.6 +0.068 +86.6 429 344 −447 +0.078 9.0 1.03 0.62
12   WAS 10–6 106 +0.055 +19.0 +0.036 +47.0 436 388 +88 +0.088 9.7 1.18 0.72
13   SD 7–9 105 +0.044 +14.3 0.000 +0.3 350 350 −467 −0.028 8.7 0.93 0.65
14   BAL 10–6 104 +0.035 +13.7 +0.038 +53.4 398 344 +25 +0.036 9.9 1.22 0.73
15   CAR 7–9 103 +0.027 +9.2 −0.004 −5.5 357 363 +442 +0.034 9.2 1.00 0.69
16   TB 7–9 101 +0.008 +3.0 −0.005 −5.8 389 394 −258 +0.014 8.1 1.32 0.70
17   PIT 8–8 100 +0.004 +1.2 +0.018 +22.0 336 314 +911 −0.014 7.4 1.15 0.82
18   NO 7–9 100 0.000 0.0 +0.006 +7.0 461 454 −468 +0.079 7.8 1.11 0.65
19   IND 11–5 99 −0.003 −0.7 −0.024 −30.0 357 387 −189 +0.021 7.2 1.45 0.73
20   MIA 7–9 98 −0.015 −4.5 −0.025 −29.0 288 317 −724 −0.041 7.8 1.03 0.69
21   STL 7.5–8.5 95 −0.043 −15.6 −0.037 −48.8 299 348 −218 −0.054 7.0 1.34 0.74
22   BUF 6–10 95 −0.043 −13.8 −0.070 −91.6 344 435 −320 −0.040 6.3 0.98 0.64
23   DAL 8–8 94 −0.056 −21.4 −0.020 −24.5 376 400 +307 +0.027 6.8 1.41 0.77
24   DET 4–12 93 −0.063 −24.1 −0.047 −64.0 372 437 +1,082 −0.020 5.7 1.70 0.72
25   CLE 5–11 93 −0.066 −23.6 −0.054 −66.5 302 368 −793 −0.068 5.6 1.12 0.74
26   NYJ 6–10 91 −0.080 −28.7 −0.071 −94.2 281 375 −387 −0.108 5.7 0.99 0.67
27   ARI 5–11 90 −0.092 −31.6 −0.081 −107.0 250 357 −1,196 −0.197 4.9 1.22 0.68
28   TEN 6–10 89 −0.095 −29.2 −0.109 −140.7 330 471 −989 −0.101 6.5 1.06 0.63
29   PHI 4–12 85 −0.132 −49.4 −0.120 −163.7 280 444 +174 −0.076 3.9 1.32 0.71
30   JAX 2–14 85 −0.136 −49.7 −0.141 −188.7 255 444 −1,300 −0.093 3.1 1.30 0.70
31   OAK 4–12 82 −0.160 −52.8 −0.116 −152.8 290 443 −168 −0.036 3.8 0.94 0.65
32   KC 2–14 78 −0.197 −65.6 −0.166 −213.8 211 425 −596 −0.109 1.8 0.87 0.67

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 T.Brady   NE 115 +0.248 +41.9 +0.240 +159.5 +0.269 +178.7 637 4,827 7.6 34 8
2 M.Ryan   ATL 114 +0.237 +42.7 +0.235 +151.2 +0.210 +135.5 615 4,719 7.7 32 14
3 C.Kaepernick   SF 114 +0.228 +13.6 +0.169 +39.5 +0.189 +44.3 218 1,814 8.3 10 3
4 R.Griffin   WAS 113 +0.224 +24.7 +0.176 +74.5 +0.194 +82.1 393 3,200 8.1 20 5
5 P.Manning   DEN 113 +0.223 +33.7 +0.235 +142.2 +0.250 +151.5 583 4,659 8.0 37 11
6 A.Smith   SF 112 +0.212 +13.5 +0.149 +36.1 +0.139 +33.6 218 1,737 8.0 13 5
7 D.Brees   NO 111 +0.187 +32.7 +0.165 +114.8 +0.140 +97.4 670 5,177 7.7 43 19
8 M.Schaub   HOU 110 +0.181 +26.8 +0.160 +91.3 +0.149 +84.8 544 4,008 7.4 22 12
9 A.Rodgers   GB 110 +0.176 +29.5 +0.187 +113.3 +0.184 +111.4 552 4,295 7.8 39 8
10 E.Manning   NYG 108 +0.154 +21.7 +0.110 +61.3 +0.104 +57.5 536 3,948 7.4 26 15
11 R.Wilson   SEA 108 +0.153 +19.4 +0.172 +73.3 +0.183 +77.8 393 3,118 7.9 26 10
12 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 107 +0.137 +20.7 +0.140 +67.3 +0.132 +63.4 449 3,265 7.3 26 8
13 C.Newton   CAR 104 +0.095 +13.5 +0.089 +46.3 +0.106 +55.1 485 3,869 8.0 19 12
14 T.Romo   DAL 104 +0.090 +17.7 +0.116 +79.8 +0.108 +74.3 648 4,903 7.6 28 19
15 A.Luck   IND 102 +0.072 +12.9 +0.037 +24.8 +0.019 +12.4 627 4,374 7.0 23 18
16 P.Rivers   SD 101 +0.053 +8.0 +0.032 +18.4 −0.011 −6.6 527 3,606 6.8 26 15
17 J.Freeman   TB 101 +0.053 +7.9 +0.049 +29.1 +0.040 +23.7 558 4,065 7.3 27 17
18 R.Fitzpatrick   BUF 100 +0.045 +6.0 +0.019 +10.0 −0.016 −8.6 505 3,400 6.7 24 16
19 J.Flacco   BAL 100 +0.036 +5.7 +0.039 +22.2 +0.030 +16.9 531 3,817 7.2 22 10
20 M.Stafford   DET 99 +0.028 +5.7 +0.029 +21.9 +0.010 +7.8 727 4,967 6.8 20 17
21 S.Bradford   STL 99 +0.027 +4.4 +0.023 +13.4 −0.008 −4.5 551 3,702 6.7 21 13
22 C.Palmer   OAK 99 +0.026 +3.8 +0.057 +33.8 +0.014 +8.6 565 4,018 7.1 22 14
23 C.Ponder   MIN 99 +0.022 +2.5 +0.001 +0.4 −0.024 −12.6 483 2,935 6.1 18 12
24 A.Dalton   CIN 97 −0.005 −0.8 −0.001 −0.8 −0.022 −12.4 528 3,669 6.9 27 16
25 M.Vick   PHI 95 −0.026 −2.6 −0.001 −0.5 −0.014 −5.1 351 2,362 6.7 12 10
26 M.Hasselbeck   TEN 95 −0.034 −1.8 −0.071 −16.8 −0.125 −29.6 221 1,367 6.2 7 5
27 R.Tannehill   MIA 95 −0.037 −5.0 −0.041 −21.5 −0.065 −33.7 484 3,294 6.8 12 13
28 N.Foles   PHI 95 −0.037 −2.9 −0.079 −22.7 −0.099 −28.6 265 1,699 6.4 6 5
29 B.Weeden   CLE 94 −0.045 −7.0 −0.033 −17.8 −0.063 −34.6 517 3,385 6.5 14 17
30 K.Kolb   ARI 93 −0.055 −3.5 −0.059 −12.4 −0.100 −21.1 183 1,169 6.4 8 3
31 J.Locker   TEN 92 −0.070 −5.7 −0.071 −24.2 −0.082 −27.9 314 2,176 6.9 10 11
32 C.Henne   JAX 92 −0.071 −5.9 −0.119 −40.0 −0.142 −48.0 308 2,084 6.8 11 11
33 B.Gabbert   JAX 92 −0.079 −6.1 −0.127 −38.7 −0.138 −41.8 278 1,662 6.0 9 6
34 J.Cutler   CHI 91 −0.093 −11.2 −0.036 −17.0 −0.059 −28.1 434 3,033 7.0 19 14
35 M.Cassel   KC 85 −0.166 −10.9 −0.121 −35.8 −0.157 −46.5 277 1,796 6.5 6 12
36 M.Sanchez   NYJ 83 −0.192 −23.8 −0.136 −66.1 −0.169 −82.6 453 2,883 6.4 13 18
37 B.Quinn   KC 80 −0.240 −12.9 −0.302 −65.8 −0.351 −76.6 197 1,141 5.8 2 8
38 J.Skelton   ARI 74 −0.321 −14.0 −0.243 −52.5 −0.312 −67.3 201 1,132 5.6 2 9

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2012 row, on GitHub .