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CASE
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History: 2014

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   GB 12–4* 115 +0.125 +36.8 +0.095 +116.8 486 348 +774 +0.087 10.6 0.85 0.60
2   DEN 12–4 114 +0.119 +37.8 +0.092 +127.7 482 354 +1,563 +0.045 11.2 0.76 0.60
3   NE 12–4 114 +0.114 +38.7 +0.112 +154.2 468 313 +342 +0.067 11.6 0.69 0.65
4   SEA 12–4 113 +0.111 +38.4 +0.112 +140.0 394 254 +1,738 +0.030 12.4 0.86 0.72
5   IND 11–5 112 +0.101 +30.4 +0.065 +89.5 458 369 +1,023 +0.026 10.6 0.83 0.57
6   DAL 12–4 111 +0.093 +30.3 +0.088 +115.3 467 352 +457 +0.090 11.0 1.00 0.62
7   PIT 11–5 108 +0.068 +23.7 +0.047 +68.8 436 368 +923 +0.082 11.4 0.96 0.66
8   PHI 10–6 107 +0.061 +22.0 +0.050 +74.0 474 400 +339 −0.028 8.8 1.06 0.65
9   BAL 10–6 107 +0.058 +19.5 +0.081 +107.2 409 302 +447 +0.050 9.6 0.96 0.68
10   CIN 10.5–5.5 107 +0.057 +19.5 +0.015 +20.8 365 344 −181 −0.034 10.1 1.13 0.66
11   HOU 9–7 105 +0.038 +13.7 +0.047 +65.2 372 307 −58 −0.047 8.9 0.97 0.67
12   DET 11–5 104 +0.029 +9.5 +0.031 +39.0 321 282 +637 −0.062 9.1 1.02 0.68
13   KC 9–7 103 +0.027 +8.9 +0.056 +72.0 353 281 −188 +0.014 8.6 0.82 0.69
14   ARI 11–5 102 +0.020 +7.4 +0.009 +11.5 310 299 −775 −0.065 9.7 1.06 0.76
15   SF 8–8 102 +0.017 +6.2 −0.026 −34.2 306 340 +96 −0.056 9.0 1.15 0.73
16   MIA 8–8 102 +0.015 +5.2 +0.011 +14.8 388 373 +107 −0.016 8.7 1.22 0.70
17   BUF 9–7 101 +0.010 +4.2 +0.038 +54.0 343 289 +101 −0.084 8.1 1.03 0.72
18   MIN 7–9 100 −0.002 −0.7 −0.015 −18.5 325 343 −467 −0.063 7.6 1.07 0.73
19   NYG 6–10 99 −0.011 −2.6 −0.015 −19.7 380 400 −137 −0.031 6.9 0.89 0.66
20   NO 7–9 98 −0.018 −5.3 −0.021 −22.8 401 424 +438 +0.039 7.6 1.09 0.69
21   CLE 7–9 98 −0.019 −5.9 −0.031 −38.8 299 337 −664 −0.085 7.6 1.16 0.72
22   ATL 6–10 96 −0.036 −12.4 −0.027 −36.0 381 417 −321 +0.003 6.8 0.89 0.65
23   SD 9–7* 96 −0.037 −12.2 −0.025 −31.0 348 348 −236 −0.016 5.9 1.10 0.71
24   CAR 7.5–8.5 95 −0.041 −13.3 −0.026 −34.7 339 374 +110 −0.042 7.2 0.96 0.64
25   STL 6–10 95 −0.041 −13.1 −0.025 −30.0 324 354 −591 −0.115 5.7 1.11 0.68
26   NYJ 4–12* 91 −0.077 −25.9 −0.071 −87.2 283 401 +279 −0.071 4.3 1.02 0.73
27   CHI 5–11* 90 −0.087 −27.1 −0.083 −101.0 319 442 −938 −0.081 5.4 0.89 0.67
28   WAS 4–12 87 −0.110 −39.7 −0.105 −137.3 301 438 +26 −0.057 5.3 0.97 0.72
29   TB 2–14 86 −0.118 −40.6 −0.106 −133.5 277 410 −1,231 −0.122 3.9 1.21 0.72
30   JAX 3–13 82 −0.154 −52.1 −0.125 −163.2 249 412 −1,298 −0.162 3.0 1.00 0.67
31   TEN 2–14 81 −0.160 −48.7 −0.143 −184.3 254 438 −1,109 −0.124 3.7 0.81 0.62
32   OAK 3–13 80 −0.163 −52.6 −0.149 −198.7 253 452 −1,206 −0.162 3.9 0.74 0.63

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 T.Romo   DAL 123 +0.335 +40.3 +0.272 +126.2 +0.271 +125.8 435 3,705 8.5 34 9
2 A.Rodgers   GB 119 +0.290 +39.9 +0.302 +157.1 +0.270 +140.8 520 4,381 8.4 38 5
3 P.Manning   DEN 118 +0.284 +42.6 +0.236 +145.3 +0.190 +117.2 597 4,727 7.9 39 15
4 E.Manning   NYG 111 +0.203 +33.5 +0.112 +70.4 +0.059 +37.3 601 4,410 7.3 30 14
5 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 111 +0.200 +32.2 +0.233 +149.8 +0.216 +139.2 608 4,952 8.1 32 9
6 M.Sanchez   PHI 110 +0.197 +15.3 +0.151 +50.2 +0.101 +33.6 309 2,418 7.8 14 11
7 T.Brady   NE 110 +0.194 +30.4 +0.199 +120.5 +0.169 +102.2 582 4,109 7.1 33 9
8 M.Ryan   ATL 107 +0.161 +26.4 +0.140 +92.5 +0.081 +53.5 628 4,694 7.5 28 14
9 P.Rivers   SD 107 +0.157 +24.0 +0.129 +74.5 +0.095 +54.8 570 4,286 7.5 31 18
10 C.Palmer   ARI 105 +0.137 +10.9 +0.147 +34.5 +0.136 +31.9 224 1,626 7.3 11 3
11 D.Brees   NO 105 +0.136 +24.6 +0.159 +109.4 +0.104 +71.4 659 4,952 7.5 33 17
12 M.Stafford   DET 103 +0.117 +20.0 +0.089 +58.0 +0.047 +30.5 602 4,257 7.1 22 12
13 K.Cousins   WAS 103 +0.112 +6.2 +0.069 +14.7 +0.020 +4.2 204 1,710 8.4 10 9
14 A.Luck   IND 102 +0.102 +15.5 +0.154 +99.1 +0.111 +71.6 616 4,761 7.7 40 16
15 R.Tannehill   MIA 102 +0.099 +16.5 +0.063 +40.3 +0.037 +23.5 590 4,045 6.9 27 12
16 R.Wilson   SEA 101 +0.098 +13.8 +0.093 +46.2 +0.066 +32.5 452 3,475 7.7 20 7
17 J.Flacco   BAL 101 +0.096 +14.6 +0.123 +70.8 +0.100 +57.4 554 3,986 7.2 27 12
18 A.Smith   KC 101 +0.095 +12.9 +0.094 +48.2 +0.073 +37.5 464 3,265 7.0 18 6
19 A.Dalton   CIN 100 +0.087 +11.6 +0.024 +12.1 −0.018 −9.2 481 3,398 7.1 19 17
20 C.Kaepernick   SF 100 +0.082 +12.1 +0.028 +14.6 −0.006 −3.2 478 3,369 7.0 19 10
21 N.Foles   PHI 98 +0.058 +5.2 +0.025 +7.9 −0.011 −3.6 311 2,163 7.0 13 10
22 T.Bridgewater   MIN 98 +0.057 +7.6 +0.052 +23.0 +0.001 +0.4 402 2,919 7.3 14 12
23 B.Hoyer   CLE 97 +0.046 +6.1 +0.037 +17.4 −0.006 −3.0 438 3,326 7.6 12 13
24 R.Fitzpatrick   HOU 96 +0.041 +3.5 +0.110 +36.6 +0.066 +22.0 312 2,483 8.0 17 8
25 D.Stanton   ARI 96 +0.034 +2.5 +0.019 +4.7 −0.019 −4.8 240 1,711 7.1 7 5
26 G.Smith   NYJ 95 +0.029 +3.2 +0.014 +5.5 −0.024 −9.3 367 2,525 6.9 13 13
27 A.Davis   STL 95 +0.023 +1.6 −0.044 −13.7 −0.106 −33.2 284 2,001 7.0 12 9
28 J.Cutler   CHI 94 +0.014 +2.0 −0.012 −6.6 −0.063 −36.0 561 3,812 6.8 28 18
29 C.Newton   CAR 93 +0.005 +0.6 +0.017 +8.1 −0.031 −15.0 448 3,127 7.0 18 12
30 S.Hill   STL 93 +0.004 +0.3 +0.002 +0.4 −0.117 −28.9 229 1,657 7.2 8 7
31 C.Whitehurst   TEN 92 −0.012 −0.7 −0.011 −2.2 −0.044 −9.0 185 1,326 7.2 7 2
32 K.Orton   BUF 91 −0.018 −2.4 +0.020 +9.7 −0.012 −5.7 447 3,018 6.8 18 10
33 D.Carr   OAK 91 −0.020 −2.8 −0.060 −37.3 −0.120 −74.8 599 3,270 5.5 21 12
34 R.Griffin   WAS 90 −0.034 −2.2 −0.127 −31.5 −0.185 −45.7 214 1,694 7.9 4 6
35 J.McCown   TB 85 −0.082 −7.9 −0.061 −22.0 −0.126 −45.6 327 2,206 6.7 11 14
36 M.Glennon   TB 85 −0.087 −4.3 −0.042 −9.1 −0.040 −8.7 203 1,417 7.0 10 6
37 B.Bortles   JAX 72 −0.228 −30.5 −0.171 −91.3 −0.226 −120.8 475 2,908 6.1 11 17

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2014 row, on GitHub .