Week 2
GB beat NYJ after falling to 8% win probability
The swing: B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain
What happened
Closest calls
NO came back to beat BAL
The swing: T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard — TOUCHDOWN
PHI escaped TEN
The swing: J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards — TOUCHDOWN
CLE beat TB after nearly losing it
The swing: B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka
Wildest games
PHI and TEN traded control all game
The winner fell to 12%. 2.55 bits of surprise.
IND at KC kept changing its mind
The winner fell to 33%. 2.27 bits of surprise.
LV at LAC never settled
The winner fell to 29%. 1.69 bits of surprise.
Tightest games
No lead was safe in MIN at CHI
3 lead changes
PHI at TEN stayed in doubt almost to the end
6 lead changes
IND at KC was close throughout
10 lead changes
Results that ran against the play
NO won a game it did not control
Final margin 7
CLE beat TB despite being outplayed
Final margin 4
GB beat NYJ in a game that could have gone either way
Final margin 3
Outplayed and lost
GB won a game NYJ played better
−1.4 CASE to −1.7, and lost 17-20
Plays that impacted games
J.Hurts pass short right intended for D.Smith — INTERCEPTED
PHI, 6:11 in Q1, with the game within one score
D.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards — TOUCHDOWN
SEA, 12:38 in Q1, with the game within one score
B.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton — INTERCEPTED
DEN, 2:15 in Q2, with the game within one score
This week's teams
Best offenses
MIA had no answer for SF
56 plays, +19.3 CASE, +0.331 EPA per play
BUF had its way with DET
76 plays, +27.3 CASE, +0.362 EPA per play
DAL moved the ball at will on WAS
59 plays, +18.7 CASE, +0.267 EPA per play
Offenses that stalled
ATL couldn't get going against CAR
75 plays, −25.6 CASE, −0.526 EPA per play
Nothing worked for PIT against NE
81 plays, −18.3 CASE, −0.317 EPA per play
NYG's offense stalled against LA
68 plays, −12.2 CASE, −0.319 EPA per play
Where the situation changed the story
LV's week looks better once the situation counts
16th by CASE, 25th by EPA, against LAC
NE's numbers flatter it
25th by CASE, 20th by EPA, against PIT
The game state was kinder to CIN's week than EPA is
18th by CASE, 22nd by EPA, against HOU
On the move
HOU dropped to 22nd
+0.006 Contested CASE per play, season to date
LA climbed to 11th
+0.067 Contested CASE per play, season to date
ARI slid to 20th
+0.013 Contested CASE per play, season to date
What comes next
How each record compares with what the team has produced. Early in the season this is only a few games of evidence.
Winning more than they have played
MIN's wins have outrun its play
2–0, playing like 1.1 wins — 2 games in, an early read
PHI's record is ahead of how it has played
2–0, playing like 1.3 wins — 2 games in, an early read
NO has won more than its play suggests
1–1, playing like 0.3 wins — 2 games in, an early read
Playing better than their record
BAL's record undersells it
1–1, playing like 1.7 wins — 2 games in, an early read
TB's play has outrun its record
0–2, playing like 0.7 wins — 2 games in, an early read
NYJ has played better than its record
1–1, playing like 1.6 wins — 2 games in, an early read
Leaders
Quarterbacks
J.Allen, BUF
71 plays, +0.57 per play
B.Purdy, SF
61 plays, +0.44 per play
D.Lock, SEA
51 plays, +0.43 per play
Rushers
K.Walker, KC
47 plays, +0.27 per play
J.Allen, BUF
20 plays, +0.64 per play
C.Williams, CHI
15 plays, +0.43 per play
Receivers
J.Smith-Njigba, SEA
22 plays, +0.99 per play
C.Lamb, DAL
17 plays, +1.09 per play
J.Jefferson, MIN
16 plays, +0.62 per play