Week 1
MIN beat GB after falling to 10% win probability
The swing: J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards — TOUCHDOWN
What happened
Closest calls
SEA escaped NE
The swing: D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins — INTERCEPTED
SF beat LA after nearly losing it
The swing: B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards — TOUCHDOWN
CAR let CHI off the hook
The swing: T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22. Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-K.Davis at CAR 28
Wildest games
BUF at HOU kept changing its mind
The winner fell to 27%. 2.32 bits of surprise.
NO at DET never settled
The winner fell to 30%. 1.77 bits of surprise.
Nothing stayed decided in NE at SEA
The winner fell to 15%. 1.71 bits of surprise.
Tightest games
BUF at HOU was close throughout
10 lead changes
No lead was safe in NE at SEA
3 lead changes
WAS at PHI stayed in doubt almost to the end
2 lead changes
Results that ran against the play
GB outplayed MIN and lost
Final margin 17
SEA beat NE in a game that could have gone either way
Final margin 3
Outplayed and lost
WAS outplayed PHI and lost
+1.9 CASE to +0.7, and lost 22-24
Plays that impacted games
J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards — TOUCHDOWN
GB, 7:54 in Q1, with the game within one score
B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards — FUMBLES, RETURNED FOR TD
TB, 6:29 in Q1, with the game within one score
C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson — INTERCEPTED, RETURNED FOR TD
ATL, 14:16 in Q4, with the game within one score
This week's teams
Best offenses
JAX had its way with CLE
66 plays, +16.4 CASE, +0.289 EPA per play
BAL moved the ball at will on IND
76 plays, +15.9 CASE, +0.147 EPA per play
CHI's offense against CAR
80 plays, +29.9 CASE, +0.409 EPA per play
Offenses that stalled
JAX shut down CLE
59 plays, −7.1 CASE, −0.207 EPA per play
ATL couldn't get going against PIT
71 plays, −21.6 CASE, −0.361 EPA per play
Nothing worked for TB against CIN
64 plays, −4.3 CASE, −0.073 EPA per play
Where the situation changed the story
The game state was kinder to DET's week than EPA is
13th by CASE, 21st by EPA, against NO
PHI's week looks worse once the situation counts
19th by CASE, 13th by EPA, against WAS
MIN did more than its raw numbers show
10th by CASE, 15th by EPA, against GB
What comes next
How each record compares with what the team has produced. Early in the season this is only a few games of evidence.
Winning more than they have played
MIN has won more than its play suggests
1–0, playing like 0.3 wins — 1 games in, an early read
SEA's wins have outrun its play
1–0, playing like 0.4 wins — 1 games in, an early read
Playing better than their record
GB has played better than its record
0–1, playing like 0.7 wins — 1 games in, an early read
NE's record undersells it
0–1, playing like 0.6 wins — 1 games in, an early read
Leaders
Quarterbacks
J.Allen, BUF
33 plays, +0.48 per play
C.Williams, CHI
38 plays, +0.43 per play
J.Dart, NYG
33 plays, +0.55 per play
Rushers
K.Walker, KC
23 plays, +0.56 per play
D.Swift, CHI
18 plays, +0.32 per play
J.Gibbs, DET
29 plays, +0.15 per play