Week 3
DEN beat LA after falling to 9% win probability
The swing: M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams — INTERCEPTED, RETURNED FOR TD
What happened
Closest calls
LV beat NO after nearly losing it
The swing: T.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance — INTERCEPTED
LAC let BUF off the hook
The swing: J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards — TOUCHDOWN
BAL came back to beat DAL
The swing: L.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards — TOUCHDOWN
Wildest games
Nothing stayed decided in LA at DEN
The winner fell to 9%. 2.18 bits of surprise.
BAL and DAL traded control all game
The winner fell to 20%. 1.92 bits of surprise.
CIN at PIT kept changing its mind
The winner fell to 30%. 1.89 bits of surprise.
Tightest games
CIN at PIT stayed in doubt almost to the end
9 lead changes
BAL at DAL was close throughout
5 lead changes
No lead was safe in MIN at TB
3 lead changes
Results that ran against the play
DEN beat LA despite being outplayed
Final margin 4
BUF beat LAC in a game that could have gone either way
Final margin 8
Outplayed and lost
LA outplayed DEN and lost
−0.5 CASE to −1.6, and lost 26-30
Plays that impacted games
R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14. M.Price for 86 yards — TOUCHDOWN
TB, 9:00 in Q1, with the game within one score
B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards — TOUCHDOWN
SF, 8:40 in Q1, with the game within one score
A.Rodgers pass deep left to R.Wilson for 38 yards — TOUCHDOWN
PIT, 13:17 in Q1, with the game within one score
This week's teams
Best offenses
SF's offense against ARI
59 plays, +21.7 CASE, +0.384 EPA per play
CIN had no answer for PIT
68 plays, +16.1 CASE, +0.289 EPA per play
LV had its way with NO
74 plays, +14.2 CASE, +0.138 EPA per play
Offenses that stalled
Nothing worked for NE against JAX
70 plays, −14.1 CASE, −0.271 EPA per play
TB's offense stalled against MIN
81 plays, −17.7 CASE, −0.282 EPA per play
NYG shut down TEN
67 plays, −5.9 CASE, −0.127 EPA per play
Where the situation changed the story
NO did more than its raw numbers show
14th by CASE, 23rd by EPA, against LV
CAR's production came when it mattered least
24th by CASE, 17th by EPA, against CLE
CLE's week looks worse once the situation counts
18th by CASE, 14th by EPA, against CAR
On the move
PIT climbed to 22nd
−0.003 Contested CASE per play, season to date
NE slid to 27th
−0.056 Contested CASE per play, season to date
NO is up to 18th
+0.007 Contested CASE per play, season to date
What comes next
How each team's record stacks up against how it's actually played. Early in the season, take this with a big grain of salt.
Records can lie
DEN's record is ahead of how it has played
2–1, playing like 1.0 wins — 3 games in, an early read
MIN has won more than its play suggests
3–0, playing like 2.0 wins — 3 games in, an early read
CLE's wins have outrun its play
2–1, playing like 1.2 wins — 3 games in, an early read
LA has played better than its record
1–2, playing like 1.8 wins — 3 games in, an early read
TB's record undersells it
0–3, playing like 0.7 wins — 3 games in, an early read
NYJ's play has outrun its record
1–2, playing like 1.7 wins — 3 games in, an early read
Week 4, by BASE CASE: two good teams, close
KC at LV
Both in the top 12 by net Contested CASE (#3 and #4). BASE CASE: LV 55%.
JAX at CIN
Both in the top 12 by net Contested CASE (#2 and #6). BASE CASE: JAX 52%.
Week 4, by BASE CASE: the mismatches
MIA at MIN
BASE CASE: MIN 78%. By net Contested CASE, #9 against #32.
DEN at SF
BASE CASE: SF 78%. By net Contested CASE, #1 against #20.
Leaders
Quarterbacks
B.Purdy, SF
89 plays, +0.58 per play
J.Allen, BUF
102 plays, +0.35 per play
L.Jackson, BAL
90 plays, +0.38 per play
Rushers
J.Allen, BUF
28 plays, +0.59 per play
K.Walker, KC
65 plays, +0.19 per play
L.Jackson, BAL
17 plays, +0.75 per play
Receivers
J.Smith-Njigba, SEA
36 plays, +0.69 per play
C.Lamb, DAL
26 plays, +1.05 per play
M.Evans, SF
16 plays, +1.34 per play