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History: 2023

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   BAL 13–4 121 +0.169 +61.9 +0.143 +202.2 483 280 +1,173 +0.048 14.5 0.99 0.68
2   SF 12–5 120 +0.158 +50.6 +0.149 +194.2 491 298 +1,606 +0.135 13.3 0.74 0.64
3   DAL 12–5 116 +0.125 +40.9 +0.139 +195.2 509 315 +1,222 +0.098 11.4 0.69 0.60
4   MIA 11–6 112 +0.096 +31.2 +0.077 +103.5 496 391 +1,411 +0.076 11.4 0.86 0.63
5   DET 12–5 110 +0.076 +27.0 +0.045 +66.8 461 395 +998 +0.021 11.3 0.90 0.66
6   BUF 11–6 109 +0.076 +28.9 +0.100 +139.0 451 311 +1,147 +0.069 10.9 0.97 0.71
7   KC 11–6 109 +0.071 +27.2 +0.057 +76.0 371 294 +1,046 −0.005 11.3 0.90 0.74
8   PHI 11–6 106 +0.047 +17.3 +0.005 +5.7 433 428 −30 +0.055 11.4 1.22 0.73
9   NO 9–8 103 +0.027 +9.8 +0.054 +76.0 402 327 +170 −0.050 9.7 0.84 0.67
10   LA 10–7 103 +0.026 +9.9 +0.019 +27.3 404 377 +364 −0.005 9.0 1.04 0.72
11   CLE 11–6 103 +0.025 +7.2 +0.028 +33.8 396 362 +1,117 −0.108 8.7 1.18 0.67
12   HOU 10–7 102 +0.019 +6.8 +0.017 +23.2 377 353 +198 −0.024 9.4 1.23 0.72
13   GB 9–8 102 +0.015 +5.7 +0.025 +33.8 383 350 +177 +0.035 8.5 0.96 0.73
14   JAX 9–8 101 +0.009 +3.3 +0.004 +5.0 377 371 −56 −0.037 9.2 0.87 0.66
15   CHI 7–10 101 +0.009 +3.4 −0.012 −17.4 360 379 −16 −0.065 9.0 0.92 0.66
16   TB 9–8 100 −0.001 −0.3 +0.018 +24.3 348 325 −531 −0.021 9.1 1.04 0.73
17   IND 9–8 99 −0.003 −1.3 −0.013 −19.7 396 415 −222 −0.045 8.3 1.38 0.74
18   CIN 9–8 99 −0.007 −2.3 −0.014 −18.8 366 384 −946 −0.006 8.1 1.00 0.71
19   PIT 10–7 99 −0.010 −3.7 −0.015 −20.5 304 324 −643 −0.086 8.6 0.99 0.74
20   SEA 9–8 99 −0.010 −6.0 −0.022 −37.7 364 402 −823 +0.009 8.1 1.11 0.79
21   LV 8–9 98 −0.014 −5.4 0.000 +0.1 332 331 −703 −0.088 7.1 0.88 0.69
22   MIN 7–10 98 −0.017 −6.8 −0.012 −17.5 344 362 +248 −0.050 7.6 1.41 0.78
23   LAC 5–12 96 −0.029 −11.5 −0.037 −52.7 346 398 −574 −0.064 6.8 1.20 0.76
24   TEN 6–11 96 −0.033 −13.0 −0.045 −63.0 305 367 −784 −0.035 7.1 1.12 0.73
25   DEN 8–9 95 −0.039 −14.3 −0.042 −58.1 357 413 −1,231 −0.046 7.6 1.07 0.70
26   ATL 7–10 95 −0.039 −16.4 −0.037 −51.3 321 373 +225 −0.095 6.8 1.06 0.78
27   NYJ 7–10 88 −0.089 −31.7 −0.064 −88.3 268 355 −403 −0.195 5.9 1.07 0.70
28   ARI 4–13 88 −0.095 −34.2 −0.092 −123.5 330 455 −538 −0.045 4.9 0.83 0.69
29   NE 4–13 87 −0.098 −36.8 −0.101 −130.7 236 366 −431 −0.211 5.3 1.16 0.74
30   NYG 6–11 86 −0.109 −37.1 −0.102 −139.8 266 407 −1,389 −0.163 5.6 1.03 0.65
31   WAS 4–13 82 −0.140 −51.4 −0.133 −187.5 329 518 −1,295 −0.094 3.8 1.08 0.69
32   CAR 2–15 80 −0.155 −59.3 −0.131 −179.7 236 416 −487 −0.145 2.2 0.80 0.74

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 B.Purdy   SF 120 +0.298 +37.6 +0.300 +141.8 +0.294 +138.9 444 4,280 9.6 31 11
2 D.Prescott   DAL 115 +0.229 +35.7 +0.183 +115.7 +0.176 +111.0 590 4,516 7.7 36 9
3 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 115 +0.228 +36.3 +0.166 +98.3 +0.184 +108.9 560 4,624 8.3 29 14
4 J.Goff   DET 112 +0.185 +29.2 +0.131 +83.7 +0.109 +69.7 605 4,575 7.6 30 12
5 C.Stroud   HOU 109 +0.143 +21.4 +0.120 +64.8 +0.097 +52.4 499 4,108 8.2 23 5
6 M.Stafford   LA 109 +0.142 +23.1 +0.105 +57.9 +0.082 +45.6 521 3,965 7.6 24 11
7 J.Love   GB 108 +0.140 +23.4 +0.140 +85.5 +0.135 +82.6 579 4,159 7.2 32 11
8 J.Browning   CIN 108 +0.131 +9.2 +0.068 +18.2 +0.087 +23.4 243 1,936 8.0 12 7
9 L.Jackson   BAL 107 +0.116 +16.9 +0.087 +42.9 +0.093 +45.8 457 3,678 8.0 24 7
10 G.Smith   SEA 107 +0.115 +18.9 +0.077 +41.1 +0.065 +34.5 499 3,624 7.3 20 9
11 J.Hurts   PHI 106 +0.103 +17.3 +0.067 +38.6 +0.071 +41.1 538 3,858 7.2 23 15
12 P.Mahomes   KC 105 +0.099 +17.8 +0.071 +44.2 +0.040 +24.8 597 4,183 7.0 27 14
13 J.Allen   BUF 105 +0.091 +16.0 +0.120 +72.7 +0.123 +74.5 579 4,306 7.4 29 18
14 J.Herbert   LAC 104 +0.075 +11.2 +0.057 +27.8 +0.023 +11.0 456 3,134 6.9 20 7
15 D.Carr   NO 103 +0.073 +11.8 +0.094 +54.3 +0.048 +28.0 548 3,878 7.1 25 8
16 B.Mayfield   TB 103 +0.070 +11.9 +0.084 +51.3 +0.063 +38.7 566 4,044 7.1 28 10
17 J.Flacco   CLE 103 +0.066 +3.7 −0.011 −2.3 −0.050 −10.7 204 1,616 7.9 13 8
18 J.Burrow   CIN 103 +0.063 +7.3 +0.028 +11.0 +0.003 +1.2 365 2,309 6.3 15 6
19 G.Minshew   IND 102 +0.061 +9.1 +0.022 +11.7 −0.013 −6.6 490 3,305 6.7 15 9
20 K.Cousins   MIN 102 +0.058 +5.6 +0.115 +37.6 +0.058 +19.0 311 2,331 7.5 18 5
21 T.Lawrence   JAX 101 +0.043 +6.8 −0.010 −6.1 −0.036 −21.9 564 4,016 7.1 21 14
22 J.Fields   CHI 101 +0.037 +4.0 −0.070 −29.3 −0.110 −45.9 370 2,562 6.9 16 9
23 D.Ridder   ATL 96 −0.024 −3.2 −0.041 −17.2 −0.092 −38.9 388 2,836 7.3 12 12
24 K.Murray   ARI 95 −0.042 −3.1 −0.028 −8.2 −0.054 −15.6 268 1,799 6.7 10 5
25 A.O'Connell   LV 94 −0.045 −4.1 +0.010 +3.7 −0.061 −22.4 343 2,218 6.5 12 7
26 R.Tannehill   TEN 94 −0.048 −3.5 −0.060 −15.6 −0.087 −22.9 230 1,616 7.0 4 7
27 W.Levis   TEN 93 −0.058 −4.7 −0.047 −13.2 −0.045 −12.8 255 1,808 7.1 8 4
28 K.Pickett   PIT 93 −0.064 −6.8 −0.069 −24.2 −0.135 −46.9 324 2,070 6.4 6 4
29 S.Howell   WAS 92 −0.073 −13.2 −0.110 −74.6 −0.176 −119.5 612 3,946 6.4 21 21
30 R.Wilson   DEN 92 −0.083 −10.6 −0.048 −23.9 −0.075 −37.3 447 3,070 6.9 26 8
31 J.Dobbs   ARI 90 −0.104 −7.0 −0.085 −24.2 −0.174 −49.5 266 1,569 5.9 8 5
32 M.Jones   NE 87 −0.143 −14.9 −0.148 −54.6 −0.186 −68.6 345 2,120 6.1 10 12
33 T.DeVito   NYG 86 −0.160 −8.5 −0.171 −36.8 −0.229 −49.3 178 1,101 6.2 8 3
34 Z.Wilson   NYJ 84 −0.185 −21.7 −0.179 −74.5 −0.255 −106.0 368 2,271 6.2 8 7
35 B.Zappe   NE 79 −0.250 −16.6 −0.265 −62.8 −0.363 −86.0 212 1,272 6.0 6 9
36 B.Young   CAR 79 −0.254 −38.7 −0.231 −136.2 −0.282 −166.6 527 2,877 5.5 11 10

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2023 row, on GitHub .