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History: 2022

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   PHI 14–3 121 +0.145 +52.1 +0.092 +130.9 477 344 +1,489 +0.056 13.7 0.88 0.67
2   SF 13–4 120 +0.138 +47.5 +0.129 +171.5 450 277 +1,106 +0.041 12.9 0.79 0.67
3   BUF 13–3 119 +0.136 +50.0 +0.130 +169.5 455 286 +1,255 +0.084 11.8 1.60 0.72
4   KC 14–3 118 +0.126 +49.0 +0.093 +128.3 496 369 +1,453 +0.142 13.8 1.15 0.72
5   CIN 12–4 114 +0.101 +34.5 +0.074 +98.6 418 322 +397 +0.047 11.3 1.10 0.67
6   DAL 12–5 110 +0.073 +28.7 +0.088 +124.8 467 342 +421 +0.023 10.9 0.90 0.71
7   BAL 10–7 109 +0.062 +23.9 +0.027 +36.0 350 315 +247 +0.004 11.9 1.02 0.76
8   DET 9–8 104 +0.027 +9.1 +0.018 +25.2 453 427 −210 +0.041 8.9 1.07 0.69
9   JAX 9–8 103 +0.020 +7.1 +0.040 +54.0 404 350 +69 +0.032 8.6 0.96 0.71
10   LAC 10–7 101 +0.012 +6.3 0.000 +7.3 391 384 +223 −0.015 8.5 1.17 0.77
11   TEN 7–10 101 +0.006 +1.3 −0.043 −59.8 298 359 −933 −0.075 9.0 1.05 0.75
12   MIA 9–8 101 +0.005 −0.3 +0.003 −1.3 397 399 +454 +0.026 9.7 1.02 0.74
13   SEA 9–8 100 −0.001 −1.1 +0.006 +5.2 407 401 −173 +0.010 8.6 1.03 0.74
14   CLE 7–10 99 −0.006 −2.1 −0.016 −18.5 361 381 +303 −0.005 8.0 1.16 0.74
15   NO 7–10 98 −0.009 −3.6 −0.012 −16.0 330 345 +322 −0.063 7.8 1.00 0.72
16   MIN 13–4 98 −0.010 −3.0 −0.004 −3.7 424 427 −463 −0.020 8.9 1.77 0.67
17   CAR 7–10 98 −0.010 −3.5 −0.019 −27.8 347 374 −747 −0.039 7.6 1.01 0.69
18   LV 6–11 98 −0.013 −4.1 −0.015 −21.2 395 418 −223 +0.003 8.5 1.42 0.74
19   NE 8–9 98 −0.013 −5.1 +0.011 +17.5 364 347 −126 −0.079 8.9 1.02 0.73
20   PIT 9–8 97 −0.021 −7.3 −0.030 −37.2 308 346 −133 −0.022 7.4 1.25 0.78
21   NYG 9.5–7.5 97 −0.021 −8.5 −0.006 −7.0 365 371 −413 +0.027 7.6 0.98 0.74
22   GB 8–9 96 −0.028 −10.0 −0.003 −2.5 370 371 +24 −0.013 6.7 1.01 0.72
23   WAS 8.5–8.5 96 −0.029 −11.3 −0.017 −23.5 321 343 +437 −0.053 7.1 1.13 0.74
24   TB 8–9 95 −0.036 −14.1 −0.032 −45.8 313 358 +381 −0.056 7.5 1.06 0.71
25   ATL 7–10 93 −0.049 −19.2 −0.014 −22.0 365 386 −739 −0.006 7.0 1.08 0.75
26   DEN 5–12 92 −0.054 −23.8 −0.051 −71.8 287 359 +87 −0.081 7.2 1.20 0.81
27   NYJ 7–10 91 −0.060 −23.6 −0.014 −19.3 296 316 +121 −0.098 5.9 1.16 0.75
28   LA 5–12 90 −0.067 −24.1 −0.059 −77.7 307 384 −1,029 −0.086 5.3 0.89 0.70
29   IND 4.5–12.5 88 −0.079 −30.7 −0.098 −136.7 289 427 −379 −0.151 5.5 1.33 0.72
30   ARI 4–13 87 −0.086 −34.0 −0.078 −110.0 340 449 −432 −0.099 5.2 1.04 0.73
31   CHI 3–14 86 −0.098 −36.3 −0.103 −137.2 326 463 −1,157 −0.048 5.4 0.97 0.74
32   HOU 3.5–13.5 83 −0.115 −43.8 −0.095 −129.8 289 420 −1,632 −0.145 3.8 1.15 0.73

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Mahomes   KC 122 +0.297 +58.9 +0.254 +171.9 +0.258 +175.0 648 5,250 8.1 41 12
2 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 117 +0.244 +28.6 +0.227 +95.8 +0.214 +90.4 400 3,548 8.9 25 8
3 J.Goff   DET 112 +0.185 +29.0 +0.187 +114.5 +0.158 +96.5 587 4,438 7.6 29 7
4 J.Garoppolo   SF 112 +0.183 +16.8 +0.186 +60.5 +0.189 +61.7 308 2,437 7.9 16 4
5 J.Allen   BUF 111 +0.168 +30.3 +0.149 +89.8 +0.148 +89.2 567 4,283 7.6 35 14
6 J.Hurts   PHI 110 +0.150 +20.9 +0.084 +42.0 +0.073 +36.6 460 3,701 8.0 22 6
7 R.Tannehill   TEN 108 +0.134 +13.7 +0.055 +19.8 +0.045 +16.1 325 2,536 7.8 13 6
8 J.Burrow   CIN 108 +0.134 +23.8 +0.127 +82.7 +0.126 +82.3 606 4,475 7.4 35 12
9 T.Lawrence   JAX 108 +0.131 +22.1 +0.144 +89.0 +0.135 +83.5 584 4,113 7.0 25 8
10 A.Dalton   NO 104 +0.086 +9.4 +0.065 +26.2 +0.018 +7.3 378 2,871 7.6 18 9
11 D.Carr   LV 104 +0.086 +13.1 +0.060 +31.8 +0.024 +12.8 502 3,522 7.0 24 14
12 K.Cousins   MIN 103 +0.071 +13.0 +0.065 +45.3 +0.030 +20.4 643 4,547 7.1 29 14
13 J.Herbert   LAC 103 +0.070 +15.4 +0.075 +55.3 +0.011 +8.5 699 4,739 6.8 25 10
14 T.Brady   TB 103 +0.065 +13.4 +0.068 +51.7 +0.054 +41.3 733 4,694 6.4 25 9
15 L.Jackson   BAL 101 +0.048 +5.4 +0.038 +13.4 +0.013 +4.7 326 2,242 6.9 17 7
16 J.Brissett   CLE 101 +0.045 +5.0 +0.037 +14.5 +0.032 +12.8 369 2,608 7.1 12 6
17 D.Prescott   DAL 101 +0.045 +5.5 +0.073 +30.3 +0.089 +36.8 394 2,860 7.3 23 15
18 K.Pickett   PIT 100 +0.040 +4.4 +0.010 +4.1 −0.021 −9.0 389 2,404 6.2 7 9
19 G.Smith   SEA 100 +0.038 +6.8 +0.029 +18.3 +0.004 +2.6 572 4,282 7.5 30 11
20 D.Jones   NYG 100 +0.029 +4.4 +0.022 +11.6 +0.009 +4.6 472 3,205 6.8 15 5
21 M.Mariota   ATL 99 +0.022 +2.1 +0.036 +11.8 −0.019 −6.3 300 2,219 7.4 15 9
22 M.Stafford   LA 98 +0.011 +1.0 −0.020 −6.5 −0.088 −29.1 303 2,087 6.9 10 8
23 M.Jones   NE 96 −0.014 −2.0 −0.044 −21.2 −0.089 −42.7 442 2,997 6.8 14 11
24 M.Ryan   IND 96 −0.020 −2.9 −0.051 −25.6 −0.092 −46.1 461 3,057 6.6 14 13
25 A.Rodgers   GB 95 −0.025 −4.0 −0.011 −6.2 −0.031 −18.0 542 3,695 6.8 26 12
26 T.Heinicke   WAS 94 −0.036 −3.1 −0.009 −2.4 −0.046 −12.7 259 1,859 7.2 12 6
27 K.Murray   ARI 94 −0.041 −4.4 +0.005 +2.0 −0.043 −17.9 390 2,368 6.1 14 7
28 R.Wilson   DEN 92 −0.059 −9.7 −0.062 −33.3 −0.106 −56.9 483 3,524 7.3 16 11
29 D.Mills   HOU 90 −0.083 −11.1 −0.074 −37.9 −0.145 −74.2 479 3,118 6.5 17 15
30 J.Fields   CHI 89 −0.097 −10.7 −0.151 −56.8 −0.223 −84.1 318 2,242 7.1 17 11
31 Z.Wilson   NYJ 86 −0.134 −11.9 −0.095 −25.2 −0.137 −36.2 242 1,688 7.0 6 7
32 C.Wentz   WAS 86 −0.141 −9.5 −0.083 −25.5 −0.129 −39.9 276 1,755 6.4 11 9
33 J.Flacco   NYJ 82 −0.184 −8.6 −0.104 −20.9 −0.150 −30.2 191 1,051 5.5 5 3
34 B.Mayfield   CAR 74 −0.279 −15.4 −0.160 −36.2 −0.209 −47.2 206 1,313 6.4 6 6

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2022 row, on GitHub .