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History: 2018

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   KC 12–4 120 +0.159 +50.1 +0.115 +143.5 565 421 +322 +0.204 12.0 1.17 0.64
2   CHI 12–4 119 +0.145 +46.1 +0.106 +137.8 421 283 +707 −0.003 12.7 1.17 0.66
3   NE 11–5 114 +0.111 +37.5 +0.082 +111.3 436 325 +549 +0.051 11.3 0.69 0.63
4   LA 13–3 114 +0.109 +39.2 +0.104 +143.0 527 384 +1,001 +0.116 11.7 1.02 0.69
5   LAC 12–4 112 +0.095 +29.6 +0.081 +99.5 428 329 +653 +0.062 10.5 0.88 0.68
6   NO 13–3 111 +0.084 +28.9 +0.117 +151.0 504 353 +482 +0.126 10.7 1.02 0.67
7   HOU 11–5 109 +0.068 +24.6 +0.063 +85.4 402 316 +312 +0.008 10.3 1.38 0.71
8   BAL 10–6 108 +0.064 +24.9 +0.075 +101.8 389 287 +1,313 +0.012 10.7 1.16 0.72
9   PIT 9.5–6.5 106 +0.046 +18.0 +0.050 +68.0 428 360 +1,217 +0.056 10.0 1.55 0.75
10   SEA 10–6 105 +0.042 +16.8 +0.059 +81.0 428 347 0 +0.061 9.5 1.03 0.75
11   IND 10–6* 105 +0.040 +13.6 +0.058 +74.2 433 344 +634 +0.019 8.4 1.12 0.69
12   DAL 10–6 105 +0.040 +14.6 +0.011 +15.3 339 324 +233 −0.024 9.7 1.12 0.72
13   PHI 9–7 103 +0.023 +9.4 +0.013 +18.5 367 348 −14 +0.022 9.1 1.32 0.74
14   MIN 8.5–7.5 101 +0.003 +0.9 +0.015 +19.5 360 341 +574 −0.107 8.0 0.84 0.64
15   CAR 7–9 100 −0.002 +0.7 −0.008 −5.8 376 382 +321 +0.053 7.3 1.07 0.67
16   ATL 7–9 100 −0.004 −3.2 −0.004 −9.2 414 423 +74 +0.066 7.7 1.04 0.70
17   TEN 9–7 97 −0.026 −8.8 +0.007 +7.6 310 303 −336 −0.033 7.6 0.89 0.70
18   DET 6–10 96 −0.033 −9.9 −0.030 −36.2 324 360 −124 −0.048 6.6 0.79 0.67
19   NYG 5–11 95 −0.037 −13.8 −0.029 −43.3 369 412 −245 +0.016 6.3 1.25 0.70
20   CLE 7.5–8.5 95 −0.038 −14.0 −0.023 −32.7 359 392 −388 −0.045 7.1 1.90 0.69
21   WAS 7–9 94 −0.046 −14.8 −0.062 −77.8 281 359 −859 −0.062 7.2 0.79 0.67
22   GB 6.5–9.5 94 −0.047 −16.8 −0.019 −24.6 376 400 +235 +0.019 6.1 1.12 0.68
23   DEN 6–10 93 −0.055 −20.2 −0.015 −20.0 329 349 −240 −0.036 5.6 1.09 0.72
24   JAX 5–11 93 −0.056 −18.0 −0.055 −71.0 245 316 −151 −0.125 6.1 0.78 0.67
25   MIA 7–9 93 −0.058 −20.1 −0.090 −113.2 319 433 −1,619 −0.112 6.6 1.08 0.72
26   TB 5–11 92 −0.067 −21.1 −0.053 −67.7 396 464 +514 +0.021 6.1 0.98 0.63
27   CIN 6–10 91 −0.073 −25.8 −0.063 −87.6 368 455 −1,646 −0.014 5.6 1.01 0.66
28   BUF 6–10 90 −0.081 −23.5 −0.079 −104.8 269 374 +45 −0.166 5.7 0.76 0.59
29   SF 4–12 90 −0.081 −27.0 −0.070 −93.0 342 435 +223 −0.032 5.6 0.95 0.66
30   NYJ 4–12 89 −0.087 −28.4 −0.083 −108.3 333 441 −1,302 −0.125 5.8 0.99 0.66
31   OAK 4–12* 84 −0.126 −39.4 −0.135 −161.8 290 467 −609 −0.091 3.9 1.04 0.68
32   ARI 3–13 80 −0.160 −49.6 −0.163 −200.3 225 425 −1,876 −0.236 3.2 0.82 0.67

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Mahomes   KC 123 +0.333 +53.0 +0.308 +186.8 +0.348 +211.4 580 5,097 8.8 50 12
2 D.Brees   NO 115 +0.238 +35.3 +0.276 +140.2 +0.272 +138.0 489 3,992 8.2 32 5
3 T.Brady   NE 114 +0.227 +35.4 +0.166 +98.0 +0.139 +82.0 570 4,355 7.6 29 11
4 J.Goff   LA 112 +0.209 +34.4 +0.192 +114.5 +0.191 +114.1 561 4,688 8.4 32 12
5 P.Rivers   LAC 110 +0.192 +27.4 +0.222 +121.5 +0.231 +126.1 508 4,308 8.5 32 12
6 M.Ryan   ATL 109 +0.172 +29.6 +0.166 +109.0 +0.155 +101.7 608 4,924 8.1 35 7
7 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 106 +0.149 +30.9 +0.151 +106.0 +0.174 +122.4 675 5,129 7.6 34 16
8 A.Dalton   CIN 106 +0.147 +15.0 +0.066 +25.7 +0.055 +21.1 365 2,566 7.0 21 11
9 M.Trubisky   CHI 106 +0.141 +17.7 +0.120 +55.6 +0.103 +47.8 434 3,223 7.4 24 12
10 D.Prescott   DAL 104 +0.120 +19.5 +0.063 +36.8 +0.027 +15.9 526 3,885 7.4 22 8
11 N.Foles   PHI 104 +0.119 +7.3 +0.115 +23.6 +0.079 +16.3 195 1,413 7.2 7 4
12 A.Luck   IND 104 +0.119 +20.4 +0.142 +89.4 +0.112 +70.3 639 4,593 7.2 39 15
13 R.Wilson   SEA 104 +0.118 +16.2 +0.112 +53.5 +0.135 +64.5 427 3,448 8.1 35 7
14 R.Fitzpatrick   TB 103 +0.109 +6.3 +0.183 +47.8 +0.170 +44.3 246 2,366 9.6 17 12
15 D.Watson   HOU 103 +0.107 +16.2 +0.101 +57.1 +0.082 +46.6 505 4,165 8.2 26 9
16 N.Mullens   SF 102 +0.101 +7.0 +0.113 +33.0 +0.110 +32.2 274 2,277 8.3 13 10
17 J.Flacco   BAL 101 +0.091 +9.5 +0.050 +19.8 +0.032 +12.8 379 2,465 6.5 12 6
18 C.Wentz   PHI 101 +0.090 +11.2 +0.096 +41.7 +0.086 +37.3 401 3,074 7.7 21 7
19 J.Winston   TB 101 +0.084 +8.4 +0.102 +41.7 +0.095 +38.9 378 2,992 7.9 19 14
20 A.Rodgers   GB 100 +0.073 +12.1 +0.091 +58.8 +0.077 +50.1 597 4,442 7.4 25 2
21 K.Cousins   MIN 99 +0.070 +11.1 +0.022 +14.1 −0.031 −19.9 606 4,298 7.1 30 10
22 C.Newton   CAR 97 +0.050 +6.5 +0.063 +31.8 +0.054 +27.3 471 3,395 7.2 24 13
23 M.Stafford   DET 97 +0.050 +7.4 +0.045 +27.1 +0.003 +2.1 555 3,777 6.8 21 11
24 A.Smith   WAS 96 +0.040 +3.4 −0.021 −7.5 −0.046 −16.1 328 2,180 6.6 10 5
25 B.Mayfield   CLE 96 +0.036 +4.8 +0.061 +31.5 +0.035 +18.3 486 3,725 7.7 27 14
26 M.Mariota   TEN 94 +0.017 +1.9 +0.014 +5.1 +0.001 +0.3 331 2,528 7.6 11 8
27 D.Carr   OAK 93 +0.004 +0.6 −0.024 −13.6 −0.030 −17.2 553 4,049 7.3 19 10
28 E.Manning   NYG 93 +0.004 +0.7 +0.056 +35.5 +0.036 +22.6 576 4,299 7.5 21 11
29 C.Keenum   DEN 91 −0.020 −3.4 −0.002 −1.4 −0.046 −28.8 586 3,890 6.6 18 15
30 S.Darnold   NYJ 89 −0.044 −4.8 −0.051 −22.6 −0.068 −30.2 414 2,865 6.9 17 15
31 B.Bortles   JAX 86 −0.073 −7.2 −0.075 −32.8 −0.112 −48.9 403 2,718 6.7 13 11
32 R.Tannehill   MIA 85 −0.080 −6.9 −0.130 −40.1 −0.187 −57.7 274 1,979 7.2 17 9
33 J.Allen   BUF 85 −0.087 −7.2 −0.093 −32.5 −0.130 −45.3 319 2,044 6.4 10 12
34 J.Rosen   ARI 71 −0.235 −26.9 −0.250 −110.0 −0.353 −155.0 393 2,278 5.8 11 14

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2018 row, on GitHub .