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History: 2017

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   NE 13–3 117 +0.137 +48.5 +0.117 +162.2 458 296 +451 +0.123 11.3 0.93 0.66
2   MIN 13–3 116 +0.132 +44.5 +0.100 +129.5 382 252 +1,295 −0.004 12.4 0.70 0.67
3   PHI 13–3 114 +0.114 +41.8 +0.121 +161.7 457 295 +948 +0.039 11.7 1.00 0.71
4   LA 11–5 114 +0.113 +38.0 +0.112 +148.8 478 329 +352 +0.058 11.1 0.94 0.68
5   NO 11–5 113 +0.102 +31.3 +0.095 +122.0 448 326 +875 +0.070 10.5 0.83 0.64
6   PIT 13–3 111 +0.087 +32.9 +0.074 +98.6 406 308 +1,145 +0.053 10.4 1.14 0.74
7   JAX 10–6 110 +0.082 +26.4 +0.112 +148.8 417 268 +1,277 −0.010 9.7 0.96 0.64
8   KC 10–6 108 +0.064 +23.2 +0.059 +75.7 415 339 +165 +0.078 11.1 1.09 0.74
9   BAL 9–7 107 +0.057 +19.7 +0.068 +92.2 395 303 −315 −0.040 9.9 1.06 0.65
10   ATL 10–6 107 +0.053 +19.5 +0.031 +38.3 353 315 +743 +0.037 10.5 1.10 0.75
11   LAC 9–7 106 +0.048 +17.1 +0.064 +83.6 355 272 +772 +0.027 9.6 1.00 0.71
12   CAR 11–5 106 +0.046 +16.4 +0.028 +35.5 363 327 +105 −0.021 10.1 0.95 0.72
13   DAL 9–7 103 +0.027 +9.9 +0.018 +23.0 354 332 +222 −0.002 9.0 1.04 0.72
14   DET 9–7 101 +0.009 +3.1 +0.025 +34.3 410 376 −288 −0.061 8.7 1.05 0.71
15   TEN 9–7 101 +0.007 +2.7 −0.017 −22.3 334 356 −232 −0.061 8.6 1.05 0.78
16   BUF 9–7 100 +0.003 +1.0 −0.044 −57.2 302 359 −861 −0.061 8.5 0.95 0.70
17   SEA 9–7 100 −0.002 −0.7 +0.025 +34.0 366 332 +115 −0.047 8.4 1.24 0.77
18   WAS 7–9 98 −0.013 −4.6 −0.037 −46.3 342 388 −367 −0.081 8.2 1.01 0.72
19   ARI 8–8 97 −0.023 −9.6 −0.047 −65.5 295 361 +51 −0.134 7.0 1.13 0.71
20   CIN 7–9 96 −0.030 −9.7 −0.051 −59.2 290 349 −937 −0.102 8.2 1.09 0.72
21   IND 4–12 94 −0.051 −18.2 −0.108 −141.2 263 404 −1,299 −0.090 6.2 1.25 0.72
22   NYJ 5–11 94 −0.051 −19.2 −0.063 −84.3 298 382 −752 −0.076 5.4 1.08 0.72
23   CHI 5–11 92 −0.063 −19.4 −0.046 −56.6 264 320 −507 −0.114 5.7 1.11 0.67
24   GB 7–9 92 −0.064 −22.9 −0.050 −64.3 320 384 −691 −0.040 6.1 0.94 0.70
25   SF 6–10 92 −0.067 −25.5 −0.038 −52.0 331 383 −38 −0.028 6.1 1.18 0.72
26   OAK 6–10 92 −0.068 −22.6 −0.056 −71.5 301 373 −416 −0.041 5.8 1.01 0.68
27   TB 5–11 91 −0.076 −27.2 −0.037 −47.0 335 382 −233 −0.014 5.8 1.05 0.72
28   NYG 3–13 90 −0.078 −30.1 −0.105 −142.2 246 388 −943 −0.143 4.2 1.02 0.75
29   HOU 4–12 90 −0.083 −28.9 −0.075 −98.0 338 436 −426 −0.061 5.4 1.06 0.69
30   DEN 5–11 87 −0.105 −33.0 −0.065 −92.5 289 382 +545 −0.132 5.2 0.67 0.60
31   MIA 6–10 85 −0.124 −39.7 −0.087 −112.2 281 393 −448 −0.112 3.6 0.93 0.65
32   CLE 0–16 77 −0.187 −64.7 −0.135 −176.0 234 410 −308 −0.151 1.7 0.92 0.69

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 T.Brady   NE 117 +0.240 +39.9 +0.216 +133.5 +0.228 +140.6 581 4,577 7.9 32 8
2 C.Wentz   PHI 115 +0.215 +27.3 +0.190 +89.7 +0.197 +93.0 440 3,296 7.5 33 7
3 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 113 +0.194 +33.5 +0.180 +105.2 +0.148 +86.7 562 4,259 7.6 28 14
4 A.Smith   KC 113 +0.194 +30.5 +0.164 +88.7 +0.168 +91.1 505 4,042 8.0 26 5
5 P.Rivers   LAC 112 +0.183 +30.9 +0.177 +105.0 +0.181 +107.5 575 4,515 7.9 28 10
6 C.Keenum   MIN 112 +0.177 +24.8 +0.144 +72.4 +0.109 +54.7 481 3,547 7.4 22 7
7 D.Brees   NO 111 +0.172 +24.7 +0.172 +95.4 +0.155 +86.4 536 4,334 8.1 23 8
8 D.Watson   HOU 111 +0.166 +8.8 +0.097 +21.8 +0.110 +24.8 204 1,699 8.3 19 8
9 M.Ryan   ATL 110 +0.160 +25.6 +0.140 +77.5 +0.127 +70.4 529 4,095 7.7 20 12
10 J.Goff   LA 109 +0.147 +20.8 +0.163 +82.0 +0.154 +77.4 477 3,804 8.0 28 7
11 J.McCown   NYJ 103 +0.074 +9.4 +0.052 +22.5 +0.010 +4.5 397 2,926 7.4 18 9
12 J.Winston   TB 103 +0.074 +10.2 +0.094 +44.8 +0.073 +34.7 442 3,504 7.9 19 11
13 K.Cousins   WAS 102 +0.061 +9.7 +0.026 +14.9 −0.007 −4.3 540 4,093 7.6 27 13
14 M.Stafford   DET 101 +0.045 +7.8 +0.059 +36.2 +0.046 +28.2 565 4,446 7.9 29 10
15 T.Taylor   BUF 101 +0.043 +5.6 +0.001 +0.3 −0.009 −4.1 420 2,799 6.7 14 4
16 C.Newton   CAR 101 +0.042 +6.4 +0.023 +12.3 −0.008 −4.1 492 3,302 6.7 22 16
17 D.Carr   OAK 101 +0.038 +5.1 +0.049 +26.2 −0.002 −1.3 515 3,496 6.8 22 13
18 B.Bortles   JAX 100 +0.034 +5.0 +0.071 +39.3 +0.051 +28.0 523 3,687 7.0 21 13
19 A.Dalton   CIN 99 +0.017 +2.6 −0.047 −24.9 −0.088 −47.3 496 3,320 6.7 25 12
20 M.Mariota   TEN 98 +0.012 +1.8 −0.006 −2.7 −0.050 −24.0 453 3,232 7.1 13 15
21 A.Rodgers   GB 98 +0.008 +0.5 +0.070 +18.3 +0.070 +18.4 238 1,675 7.0 16 6
22 C.Palmer   ARI 98 +0.005 +0.4 −0.028 −8.2 −0.061 −17.6 267 1,978 7.4 9 7
23 R.Wilson   SEA 97 −0.006 −1.0 +0.048 +28.8 +0.036 +21.5 553 3,983 7.2 34 11
24 J.Brissett   IND 97 −0.008 −1.1 −0.059 −30.7 −0.104 −54.1 469 3,098 6.6 13 7
25 D.Prescott   DAL 96 −0.013 −1.9 −0.036 −18.7 −0.070 −36.9 490 3,324 6.8 22 13
26 E.Manning   NYG 95 −0.026 −4.3 −0.058 −34.9 −0.104 −63.0 571 3,468 6.1 19 13
27 J.Cutler   MIA 95 −0.034 −3.8 −0.067 −30.2 −0.097 −43.7 429 2,666 6.2 19 14
28 T.Siemian   DEN 91 −0.078 −6.5 −0.104 −39.9 −0.155 −59.6 349 2,285 6.5 12 14
29 M.Trubisky   CHI 91 −0.081 −7.1 −0.110 −39.9 −0.142 −51.6 330 2,193 6.6 7 7
30 J.Flacco   BAL 91 −0.085 −13.0 −0.070 −40.1 −0.099 −56.9 549 3,141 5.7 18 13
31 B.Hundley   GB 90 −0.093 −7.9 −0.139 −48.1 −0.217 −75.2 316 1,836 5.8 9 12
32 T.Savage   HOU 86 −0.136 −10.4 −0.151 −36.9 −0.198 −48.4 223 1,412 6.3 5 6
33 D.Kizer   CLE 81 −0.200 −24.8 −0.188 −96.5 −0.264 −135.5 476 2,894 6.1 11 22
34 B.Hoyer   SF 80 −0.213 −14.3 −0.108 −23.9 −0.131 −29.2 205 1,245 6.1 4 4
35 C.Beathard   SF 80 −0.215 −11.7 −0.162 −39.4 −0.222 −54.0 224 1,430 6.4 4 6

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2017 row, on GitHub .