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History: 2019

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   BAL 14–2 122 +0.187 +57.6 +0.188 +248.5 531 282 +1,712 +0.165 13.2 0.70 0.62
2   NE 12–4 117 +0.145 +44.8 +0.151 +195.0 420 225 +1,250 −0.015 11.5 0.74 0.63
3   KC 12–4 116 +0.139 +47.2 +0.111 +142.5 451 308 +473 +0.113 12.3 1.11 0.70
4   NO 13–3 115 +0.131 +45.4 +0.089 +116.8 458 341 +653 +0.059 12.3 0.92 0.68
5   SF 13–3 114 +0.121 +43.8 +0.130 +168.5 479 310 +1,588 +0.042 12.8 1.53 0.74
6   GB 13–3 111 +0.092 +31.3 +0.047 +62.8 376 313 −114 +0.021 10.9 0.82 0.68
7   MIN 10–6 109 +0.078 +25.1 +0.082 +103.8 407 303 +191 +0.028 9.4 0.82 0.67
8   LA 9–7 104 +0.039 +13.7 +0.021 +29.5 394 364 +564 −0.014 9.9 0.94 0.67
9   BUF 10–6 104 +0.035 +12.2 +0.043 +54.8 314 259 +511 −0.050 9.4 1.00 0.75
10   SEA 11–5 102 +0.021 +8.0 +0.004 +6.8 405 398 −115 −0.004 9.0 1.35 0.73
11   TEN 9–7 102 +0.020 +6.0 +0.057 +70.8 402 331 +53 +0.026 8.5 1.15 0.72
12   DEN 7–9 102 +0.019 +6.2 −0.027 −33.7 282 316 −615 −0.060 8.8 0.95 0.67
13   DAL 8–8 102 +0.019 +7.1 +0.084 +113.2 434 321 +1,672 +0.065 8.5 0.71 0.64
14   TB 7–9 101 +0.006 +2.2 +0.007 +9.8 458 449 +863 −0.032 7.1 1.33 0.72
15   HOU 10–6 101 +0.005 +2.5 −0.005 −7.0 378 385 −421 +0.027 8.8 1.02 0.73
16   PHI 9–7 101 +0.004 +3.2 +0.021 +31.0 385 354 +465 −0.003 8.9 1.01 0.71
17   CHI 8–8 100 +0.004 +1.0 −0.013 −17.7 280 298 −437 −0.090 8.8 0.98 0.70
18   IND 7–9 99 −0.006 −1.4 −0.011 −12.5 361 373 −311 −0.023 8.1 1.07 0.75
19   PIT 8–8 99 −0.008 −0.7 −0.017 −14.5 289 303 −438 −0.142 7.6 1.11 0.75
20   CLE 6–10 96 −0.034 −11.2 −0.044 −57.5 335 393 −330 −0.039 5.9 0.80 0.67
21   OAK 7–9 96 −0.037 −12.6 −0.082 −105.7 313 419 +142 −0.001 7.6 0.93 0.67
22   DET 3.5–12.5 96 −0.037 −15.8 −0.058 −82.1 341 423 −857 −0.045 6.7 1.35 0.77
23   ATL 7–9 94 −0.051 −15.3 −0.016 −17.2 381 399 +382 −0.007 6.1 1.13 0.64
24   ARI 5.5–10.5 93 −0.058 −22.6 −0.057 −80.8 361 442 −965 −0.022 6.3 1.09 0.71
25   NYJ 7–9 93 −0.058 −17.0 −0.067 −82.5 276 359 −802 −0.145 7.5 0.67 0.59
26   LAC 5–11 93 −0.060 −19.3 −0.009 −7.4 337 345 +870 +0.010 5.2 1.07 0.71
27   CAR 5–11 89 −0.096 −31.5 −0.095 −130.0 340 470 −523 −0.085 5.3 0.88 0.62
28   MIA 5–11 88 −0.099 −33.5 −0.139 −188.0 306 494 −1,404 −0.081 5.0 0.93 0.65
29   NYG 4–12 88 −0.099 −37.6 −0.082 −110.5 341 451 −621 −0.077 3.9 0.91 0.71
30   JAX 6–10 87 −0.112 −35.6 −0.074 −97.2 300 397 −539 −0.037 4.8 0.82 0.64
31   CIN 2–14 83 −0.148 −51.0 −0.106 −141.2 279 420 −1,130 −0.082 3.2 0.94 0.67
32   WAS 3–13 82 −0.158 −52.2 −0.131 −168.6 266 435 −1,767 −0.118 2.7 0.85 0.68

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 P.Mahomes   KC 121 +0.300 +42.9 +0.246 +123.7 +0.252 +126.6 484 4,031 8.3 26 5
2 D.Brees   NO 117 +0.262 +27.5 +0.264 +103.1 +0.237 +92.8 378 2,979 7.9 27 4
3 M.Stafford   DET 116 +0.242 +23.3 +0.214 +66.2 +0.212 +65.8 291 2,499 8.6 19 5
4 D.Carr   OAK 114 +0.221 +30.8 +0.143 +77.8 +0.146 +79.2 513 4,054 7.9 21 8
5 K.Cousins   MIN 113 +0.219 +28.3 +0.170 +80.9 +0.160 +76.1 444 3,603 8.1 26 6
6 L.Jackson   BAL 113 +0.216 +22.8 +0.286 +121.5 +0.329 +139.8 401 3,127 7.8 36 6
7 D.Prescott   DAL 110 +0.186 +29.3 +0.215 +133.6 +0.185 +114.9 596 4,902 8.2 30 11
8 J.Garoppolo   SF 107 +0.149 +23.4 +0.170 +87.8 +0.155 +80.2 476 3,978 8.4 27 13
9 J.Goff   LA 105 +0.133 +23.0 +0.091 +58.9 +0.094 +60.9 626 4,638 7.4 22 16
10 R.Tannehill   TEN 105 +0.130 +11.3 +0.151 +48.1 +0.176 +56.0 286 2,742 9.6 22 6
11 R.Wilson   SEA 104 +0.122 +19.1 +0.096 +54.1 +0.095 +53.6 516 4,110 8.0 31 5
12 T.Bridgewater   NO 104 +0.115 +7.0 +0.130 +27.1 +0.115 +24.0 196 1,384 7.1 9 2
13 D.Watson   HOU 103 +0.109 +16.8 +0.127 +68.5 +0.120 +64.8 495 3,852 7.8 26 12
14 J.Brissett   IND 103 +0.104 +13.8 +0.055 +26.1 0.000 +0.2 447 2,942 6.6 18 6
15 R.Fitzpatrick   MIA 101 +0.091 +12.0 +0.035 +19.0 +0.007 +3.7 502 3,529 7.0 20 13
16 A.Rodgers   GB 101 +0.090 +14.9 +0.076 +46.1 +0.074 +45.1 569 4,002 7.0 26 4
17 M.Ryan   ATL 100 +0.074 +12.1 +0.056 +37.5 +0.027 +17.7 616 4,466 7.2 26 14
18 J.Winston   TB 99 +0.072 +13.1 +0.068 +46.2 +0.051 +34.8 626 5,109 8.2 33 30
19 P.Rivers   LAC 99 +0.071 +12.2 +0.109 +68.3 +0.091 +56.7 591 4,615 7.8 23 20
20 G.Minshew II   JAX 99 +0.069 +4.6 +0.007 +2.2 −0.036 −10.8 470 3,271 7.0 21 6
21 K.Murray   ARI 99 +0.062 +10.1 +0.014 +8.6 −0.017 −10.4 542 3,722 6.9 20 12
22 S.Darnold   NYJ 98 +0.061 +7.1 −0.012 −5.6 −0.030 −14.3 441 3,024 6.9 19 13
23 C.Wentz   PHI 97 +0.046 +8.1 +0.051 +33.2 +0.031 +20.1 607 4,039 6.7 27 7
24 T.Brady   NE 96 +0.030 +5.0 +0.042 +26.9 +0.022 +14.0 613 4,057 6.6 24 8
25 B.Mayfield   CLE 94 +0.011 +1.7 −0.019 −10.8 −0.037 −21.2 534 3,827 7.2 22 21
26 G.Minshew   JAX 93 +0.004 +0.2 +0.041 +8.6 −0.028 −5.8 470 3,271 7.0 21 6
27 D.Jones   NYG 91 −0.016 −2.1 −0.045 −22.6 −0.092 −45.8 459 3,027 6.6 24 12
28 J.Flacco   DEN 91 −0.017 −1.3 −0.063 −18.3 −0.096 −27.7 262 1,822 7.0 6 5
29 K.Allen   CAR 90 −0.025 −2.9 −0.026 −13.9 −0.056 −30.0 489 3,322 6.8 17 16
30 J.Allen   BUF 89 −0.037 −4.6 −0.045 −18.1 −0.072 −29.1 461 3,089 6.7 20 9
31 A.Dalton   CIN 89 −0.041 −5.4 −0.016 −9.3 −0.047 −26.9 528 3,494 6.6 16 14
32 M.Rudolph   PIT 88 −0.052 −4.8 −0.077 −23.0 −0.099 −29.5 283 1,765 6.2 13 9
33 M.Trubisky   CHI 87 −0.063 −9.5 −0.035 −19.4 −0.066 −36.9 516 3,138 6.1 17 10
34 C.Keenum   WAS 85 −0.080 −5.0 −0.004 −1.1 −0.039 −10.2 247 1,707 6.9 11 5
35 D.Haskins   WAS 79 −0.148 −8.6 −0.148 −34.7 −0.222 −52.2 203 1,365 6.7 7 7

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2019 row, on GitHub .