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History: 2020

Every completed season since 2006, on one scale. CASE+ measures each team, game and player against its own season: 100 is that year's average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. A 130 in 2007 and a 130 in 2023 mean the same thing.

All-time 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Teams

# Team Record CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
Standard
Context
/ play Total / play Total PF PA Net yds Off. EPA Exp. wins Excitement Tension
1   GB 13–3 119 +0.169 +51.7 +0.111 +140.2 509 369 +880 +0.178 13.2 0.73 0.61
2   BUF 13–3 117 +0.151 +50.2 +0.094 +126.0 501 375 +703 +0.131 12.6 0.97 0.65
3   BAL 11–5 116 +0.146 +44.4 +0.130 +165.0 468 303 +534 +0.090 11.5 0.73 0.62
4   KC 14–2 112 +0.109 +41.6 +0.081 +110.7 473 362 +920 +0.143 11.9 1.03 0.73
5   NO 12–4 111 +0.101 +34.8 +0.109 +144.8 482 337 +1,049 +0.067 10.8 0.92 0.69
6   PIT 12–4 109 +0.085 +29.9 +0.079 +104.2 416 312 +461 +0.011 11.2 0.99 0.70
7   SEA 12–4 109 +0.085 +29.9 +0.070 +87.8 459 371 −177 +0.096 10.9 1.20 0.72
8   IND 11–5 108 +0.077 +27.3 +0.066 +88.5 451 362 +735 +0.047 10.7 0.93 0.71
9   TB 11–5 108 +0.076 +23.5 +0.105 +137.2 492 355 +911 +0.098 10.8 0.80 0.63
10   CLE 11–5 107 +0.060 +20.6 −0.009 −11.0 408 419 +178 +0.048 10.4 1.07 0.67
11   LA 10–6 106 +0.055 +19.3 +0.059 +75.7 372 296 +1,521 −0.051 10.3 0.94 0.70
12   MIA 10–6 105 +0.046 +15.1 +0.050 +65.7 404 338 −462 +0.012 8.4 0.79 0.66
13   TEN 11–5 104 +0.041 +12.7 +0.041 +52.0 491 439 −29 +0.144 9.2 0.97 0.66
14   ARI 8–8 101 +0.008 +3.3 +0.031 +42.8 410 367 +522 +0.022 7.2 1.38 0.73
15   ATL 4–12 100 +0.002 +2.5 −0.015 −17.4 396 414 −479 +0.031 8.4 1.07 0.68
16   LAC 7–9 98 −0.015 −3.4 −0.035 −42.2 384 426 +618 −0.026 8.1 1.41 0.74
17   CHI 8–8 98 −0.017 −6.1 +0.001 +2.0 372 370 −217 −0.027 6.5 1.04 0.68
18   SF 6–10 98 −0.018 −6.1 −0.012 −13.7 376 390 +892 −0.001 7.3 0.90 0.67
19   LV 8–8* 97 −0.024 −11.0 −0.037 −49.3 434 478 −76 +0.039 7.1 1.76 0.78
20   MIN 7–9 97 −0.028 −8.7 −0.037 −45.3 430 475 0 +0.035 7.0 1.26 0.72
21   CAR 5–11* 96 −0.033 −10.8 −0.038 −46.8 350 402 −185 +0.005 6.5 0.95 0.69
22   NYG 6–10 95 −0.046 −17.0 −0.059 −77.0 280 357 −795 −0.049 6.5 1.15 0.74
23   NE 7–9 94 −0.050 −16.4 −0.021 −27.2 326 353 −424 +0.015 6.1 0.80 0.70
24   WAS 7–9 93 −0.062 −21.3 +0.005 +6.5 335 329 +203 −0.046 6.0 0.94 0.69
25   CIN 4.5–11.5 92 −0.069 −24.0 −0.087 −113.0 311 424 −1,111 −0.047 5.0 1.25 0.70
26   HOU 4–12 91 −0.079 −32.2 −0.051 −79.5 384 464 −664 +0.063 5.2 1.00 0.73
27   DAL 6–10 91 −0.080 −29.8 −0.058 −78.5 395 473 −234 −0.040 5.8 1.03 0.70
28   PHI 4.5–11.5 90 −0.089 −33.5 −0.061 −83.8 334 418 −456 −0.070 4.3 1.22 0.73
29   DEN 5–11 90 −0.091 −31.9 −0.092 −122.7 323 446 −518 −0.066 5.6 1.10 0.69
30   DET 5–11 88 −0.104 −37.7 −0.102 −142.5 377 519 −1,113 −0.011 4.6 0.97 0.66
31   NYJ 2–14 81 −0.169 −53.3 −0.163 −213.7 243 457 −1,722 −0.139 3.8 1.01 0.63
32   JAX 1–15 79 −0.182 −63.5 −0.137 −185.5 306 492 −1,465 −0.063 2.1 0.93 0.67

Ranked by CASE+ of Contested CASE per play. For Allowed, CASE+ is flipped, so above 100 is always better. Records are regular season; games include the playoffs, marked.

Exp. wins: how many games a team that played this way usually wins. Win exp.: the same for one game. Off. EPA: the offense's EPA per play. Post: a playoff game.

12 games since 2006 aren't scored, because their play-by-play doesn't add up to the final score. CASE only reports games it can reconcile exactly. A * marks a team missing one.

Players

# Player Team CASE+
Contested CASE
CASE
EPA
Passing
/ play Total / play Total / play Total Att Yds Y/A TD INT
1 A.Rodgers   GB 119 +0.341 +48.0 +0.293 +160.2 +0.322 +175.7 526 4,299 8.2 48 5
2 P.Mahomes   KC 113 +0.263 +47.7 +0.259 +159.0 +0.274 +167.9 588 4,740 8.1 38 6
3 J.Allen   BUF 110 +0.227 +37.5 +0.248 +148.3 +0.266 +159.3 572 4,544 7.9 37 10
4 P.Rivers   IND 110 +0.226 +35.8 +0.185 +104.1 +0.166 +93.8 543 4,169 7.7 24 11
5 R.Tannehill   TEN 110 +0.226 +29.5 +0.249 +126.4 +0.236 +119.8 481 3,819 7.9 33 7
6 T.Brady   TB 110 +0.220 +35.5 +0.205 +129.6 +0.189 +119.7 610 4,633 7.6 40 12
7 R.Fitzpatrick   MIA 109 +0.212 +15.7 +0.173 +49.0 +0.172 +48.7 267 2,091 7.8 13 8
8 D.Brees   NO 109 +0.202 +22.7 +0.178 +72.1 +0.155 +62.4 390 2,942 7.5 24 6
9 D.Watson   HOU 108 +0.200 +33.1 +0.217 +129.6 +0.193 +115.5 544 4,823 8.9 33 7
10 J.Herbert   LAC 108 +0.197 +33.8 +0.145 +91.1 +0.130 +81.8 595 4,336 7.3 31 10
11 B.Mayfield   CLE 107 +0.180 +25.9 +0.139 +71.5 +0.154 +78.7 486 3,563 7.3 26 8
12 M.Stafford   DET 106 +0.161 +22.9 +0.132 +75.2 +0.098 +56.1 528 4,084 7.7 26 10
13 L.Jackson   BAL 105 +0.156 +16.3 +0.124 +50.2 +0.141 +57.3 376 2,757 7.3 26 9
14 K.Cousins   MIN 105 +0.153 +23.3 +0.169 +94.7 +0.150 +84.5 516 4,265 8.3 35 13
15 D.Carr   LV 105 +0.150 +23.3 +0.103 +53.1 +0.060 +31.0 517 4,103 7.9 27 9
16 M.Trubisky   CHI 104 +0.142 +10.7 +0.096 +30.5 +0.077 +24.3 297 2,055 6.9 16 8
17 M.Ryan   ATL 103 +0.132 +22.7 +0.126 +84.5 +0.086 +57.8 626 4,581 7.3 26 11
18 D.Prescott   DAL 103 +0.129 +7.3 +0.162 +37.9 +0.113 +26.3 222 1,856 8.4 9 4
19 J.Burrow   CIN 100 +0.091 +11.1 +0.067 +29.4 +0.078 +33.8 404 2,688 6.7 13 5
20 R.Wilson   SEA 100 +0.089 +15.3 +0.110 +67.0 +0.117 +71.0 558 4,212 7.5 40 13
21 T.Bridgewater   CAR 100 +0.082 +10.8 +0.073 +35.8 +0.047 +23.2 492 3,733 7.6 15 11
22 B.Roethlisberger   PIT 99 +0.079 +13.8 +0.080 +49.8 +0.072 +45.2 608 3,803 6.3 33 10
23 J.Goff   LA 99 +0.071 +11.4 +0.066 +37.8 +0.026 +14.9 552 3,952 7.2 20 13
24 K.Murray   ARI 97 +0.041 +6.9 +0.062 +36.6 +0.028 +16.5 558 3,971 7.1 26 12
25 A.Dalton   DAL 96 +0.036 +3.2 +0.020 +7.1 −0.043 −15.2 333 2,170 6.5 14 8
26 G.Minshew II   JAX 96 +0.027 +1.2 +0.051 +12.3 +0.027 +6.5 327 2,259 6.9 16 5
27 T.Tagovailoa   MIA 94 +0.012 +1.0 −0.010 −3.2 −0.061 −19.0 290 1,814 6.3 11 5
28 C.Newton   NE 92 −0.026 −2.9 −0.017 −6.8 −0.055 −22.1 368 2,657 7.2 8 10
29 D.Jones   NYG 91 −0.035 −4.7 −0.034 −17.0 −0.072 −35.6 448 2,943 6.6 11 10
30 D.Lock   DEN 90 −0.052 −6.2 −0.055 −25.8 −0.103 −48.2 443 2,933 6.6 16 15
31 N.Mullens   SF 88 −0.072 −5.9 +0.042 +14.7 +0.009 +3.1 326 2,437 7.5 12 12
32 S.Darnold   NYJ 87 −0.085 −8.5 −0.148 −59.4 −0.214 −85.8 364 2,208 6.1 9 11
33 N.Foles   CHI 85 −0.111 −9.3 −0.078 −26.0 −0.137 −45.5 312 1,852 5.9 10 8
34 A.Smith   WAS 84 −0.130 −10.3 −0.094 −25.7 −0.135 −37.1 252 1,582 6.3 6 8
35 C.Wentz   PHI 81 −0.162 −22.3 −0.143 −70.4 −0.168 −82.7 437 2,620 6.0 16 15
36 D.Haskins   WAS 76 −0.232 −14.6 −0.127 −33.3 −0.169 −44.4 241 1,439 6.0 5 7

Great seasons and great games - not a verdict on the best players ever. Case Keenum's 2017 belongs on this list, and it should. Qualifying: passing 200 a season and 15 a game; rushing 100 a season and 10 a game; receiving 50 a season and 5 a game, and a full play's worth of leverage. Receiving starts in 2009.

All of it, down to the play: every 2020 row, on GitHub .