NE 29, BUF 26 — week 4, 2026

29 at 26

BUF

Week 4 · 2026 · Final

NE season | BUF season

BASE CASE

before kickoff

NE 28%

Win expectancy

from how they played

NE 54%

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
BUF	64	26	3405.3	+7.4+0.116	+6.9+0.107	+5.3+0.083	+1.5+0.024	+2.3+0.096
NE	80	29	4055.1	+11.7+0.147	+9.4+0.118	+9.8+0.122	−0.4−0.005	+2.7+0.097
NET	−16	−3	−650.2	−4.3−0.031	−2.5−0.010	−4.5−0.039	+1.9+0.029	−0.40.000
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is BUF minus NE.

Game Timeline

NE at BUF. NE won by 3. Two panels. Top: BUF's win probability across 162 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 0%; BUF was favored on 34% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at NE by 5.9 in the first quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +15% at play 43, D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards — FUMBLES; +21% at play 75, D.Maye pass short left intended for R.Doubs — INTERCEPTED; +14% at play 139, J.Allen pass short left to K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards; -40% at play 159, D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for….

Excitement

1.8 bits

#3 of 16 this week

88th percentile since 2006

Tension

0.95

#1 of 16 this week

98th percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

586 pts

#3 of 16 this week

90th percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

95%

#1 of 16 this week

98th percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#1 of 16 this week

96th percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

19%

#3 of 16 this week

82nd percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 0:16	NE	1st & 10	NE 36	(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).	−5.23	−5.63	+0.40	−3.14	−21%	1.4×
2	Q2 10:14	NE	2nd & 9	BUF 23	(10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.	−4.32	−4.50	+0.18	−5.43	−15%	1.4×
3	Q2 0:23	BUF	1st & 10	NE 47	(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.	−3.10	−3.50	+0.40	−1.78	−14%	1.3×
4	Q2 3:24	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).	+3.03	+2.93	+0.10	+3.52	+12%	1.3×
5	Q4 0:39	NE	3rd & 9	NE 32	(:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 31 for -1 yards.	+2.63	+1.77	+0.86	0.00	+1%	0.1×
6	Q2 6:25	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 27	(6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).	+2.42	+2.36	+0.07	+2.85	+8%	1.4×
7	Q4 1:55	NE	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.40	+3.49	−1.08	+3.55	+19%	0.9×
8	Q1 3:27	BUF	4th & 2	NE 41	(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).	+2.40	+2.43	−0.03	+2.92	+7%	1.3×
9	Q4 13:26	BUF	3rd & 7	NE 42	(13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).	+2.28	+2.31	−0.03	+2.80	+13%	1.3×
10	Q1 7:06	NE	1st & 10	BUF 14	(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].	+2.23	+2.72	−0.49	+2.05	+7%	1.4×
11	Q1 7:40	NE	4th & 3	BUF 29	(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).	+2.20	+2.12	+0.08	+3.08	+7%	1.4×
12	Q4 5:06	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 42	(5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).	+2.08	+2.11	−0.04	+2.36	+14%	1.1×
13	Q2 0:05	BUF	1st & 9	NE 9	(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	−2.03	−2.05	+0.02	+0.09	−6%	1.2×
14	Q2 1:48	BUF	3rd & 16	NE 16	(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs.	+1.88	+1.82	+0.07	+2.56	+7%	1.4×
15	Q2 8:17	NE	2nd & 10	NE 37	(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).	+1.88	+1.93	−0.05	+2.21	+7%	1.4×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 0:16	NE	1st & 10	NE 36	(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).	−5.23	−5.63	+0.40	−3.14	−21%	1.4×
2	Q2 10:14	NE	2nd & 9	BUF 23	(10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.	−4.32	−4.50	+0.18	−5.43	−15%	1.4×
3	Q2 0:23	BUF	1st & 10	NE 47	(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.	−3.10	−3.50	+0.40	−1.78	−14%	1.3×
4	Q2 3:24	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).	+3.03	+2.93	+0.10	+3.52	+12%	1.3×
5	Q2 6:25	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 27	(6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).	+2.42	+2.36	+0.07	+2.85	+8%	1.4×
6	Q1 3:27	BUF	4th & 2	NE 41	(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).	+2.40	+2.43	−0.03	+2.92	+7%	1.3×
7	Q1 7:40	NE	4th & 3	BUF 29	(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).	+2.20	+2.12	+0.08	+3.08	+7%	1.4×
8	Q1 7:06	NE	1st & 10	BUF 14	(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].	+2.23	+2.72	−0.49	+2.05	+7%	1.4×
9	Q4 13:26	BUF	3rd & 7	NE 42	(13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).	+2.28	+2.31	−0.03	+2.80	+13%	1.3×
10	Q2 8:17	NE	2nd & 10	NE 37	(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).	+1.88	+1.93	−0.05	+2.21	+7%	1.4×
11	Q1 13:41	BUF	4th & 5	BUF 38	(13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.	+1.82	+0.57	+1.25	+1.11	+5%	1.4×
12	Q2 1:48	BUF	3rd & 16	NE 16	(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs.	+1.88	+1.82	+0.07	+2.56	+7%	1.4×
13	Q2 0:05	BUF	1st & 9	NE 9	(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	−2.03	−2.05	+0.02	+0.09	−6%	1.2×
14	Q2 14:21	BUF	1st & 8	NE 8	(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.74	+2.19	−0.46	+1.56	+5%	1.4×
15	Q4 5:06	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 42	(5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).	+2.08	+2.11	−0.04	+2.36	+14%	1.1×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q4 0:55	NE	3rd & 10	NE 19	(:55) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+1.72	+1.71	0.00	+0.53	+40%	1.1×
2	Q2 0:16	NE	1st & 10	NE 36	(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).	−5.23	−5.63	+0.40	−3.14	−21%	1.4×
3	Q4 1:55	NE	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.40	+3.49	−1.08	+3.55	+19%	0.9×
4	Q2 10:14	NE	2nd & 9	BUF 23	(10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.	−4.32	−4.50	+0.18	−5.43	−15%	1.4×
5	Q4 5:06	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 42	(5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).	+2.08	+2.11	−0.04	+2.36	+14%	1.1×
6	Q2 0:23	BUF	1st & 10	NE 47	(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.	−3.10	−3.50	+0.40	−1.78	−14%	1.3×
7	Q4 13:26	BUF	3rd & 7	NE 42	(13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).	+2.28	+2.31	−0.03	+2.80	+13%	1.3×
8	Q4 1:14	BUF	2nd & 6	BUF 40	(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).	+0.05	−0.31	+0.35	−1.73	−12%	1.1×
9	Q2 3:24	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).	+3.03	+2.93	+0.10	+3.52	+12%	1.3×
10	Q4 3:00	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 47	(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game.	+1.40	+1.42	−0.02	+1.40	+10%	0.8×
11	Q4 4:33	BUF	1st & 10	NE 34	(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.81	+2.56	−0.75	+3.47	+10%	0.9×
12	Q4 8:31	NE	2nd & 2	NE 44	(8:31) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 39 for -5 yards (96-D.Walker).	−1.29	−1.30	+0.01	−1.35	−9%	1.2×
13	Q2 6:25	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 27	(6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).	+2.42	+2.36	+0.07	+2.85	+8%	1.4×
14	Q4 1:00	NE	2nd & 10	NE 19	(1:00) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism.	−0.64	−0.65	+0.01	−0.20	−8%	1.0×
15	Q4 1:50	NE	Try	BUF 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.	+1.21	+0.44	+0.77	+1.05	+8%	1.0×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 162 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	BUF	Kickoff	NE 35	8-A.Borregales kicks 54 yards from NE 35 to BUF 11. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 22 yards (49-E.Hunter; 33-M.Brown).	+0.29	+0.38	−0.10	+0.53	+1%	1.4×
Q1 14:55	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 33	(14:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at BUF 37 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).	+0.08	−0.07	+0.15	−0.10	0%	1.4×
Q1 14:26	BUF	2nd & 6	BUF 37	(14:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 1 yard (25-M.Jones; 14-R.Spillane).	−0.31	−0.50	+0.19	−0.78	−1%	1.4×
Q1 13:48	BUF	3rd & 5	BUF 38	(13:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-K.Byard).	−1.08	−1.12	+0.03	−1.56	−3%	1.4×
Q1 13:41	BUF	4th & 5	BUF 38	(13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.	+1.82	+0.57	+1.25	+1.11	+5%	1.4×
Q1 13:29	NE	1st & 10	NE 3	(13:29) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 5 for 2 yards (15-G.Rousseau; 91-E.Oliver).	−0.12	−0.29	+0.17	−0.37	−1%	1.4×
Q1 12:47	NE	2nd & 8	NE 5	(12:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard pushed ob at NE 20 for 15 yards (42-D.Williams).	+1.24	+1.16	+0.08	+1.51	+3%	1.4×
Q1 12:16	NE	1st & 10	NE 20	(12:16) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 21 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).	−0.28	−0.38	+0.10	−0.60	−1%	1.4×
Q1 11:35	NE	2nd & 9	NE 21	(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 33 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+1.13	+1.08	+0.05	+1.51	+4%	1.4×
Q1 10:53	NE	1st & 10	NE 33	(10:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 36 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).	−0.14	−0.17	+0.03	−0.25	0%	1.4×
Q1 10:16	NE	2nd & 7	NE 36	(10:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to NE 44 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker).	+0.77	+0.76	+0.01	+0.97	+2%	1.4×
Q1 9:38	NE	1st & 10	NE 44	(9:38) 10-D.Maye to NE 43 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 43. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 36 for 20 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	+1.12	+1.15	−0.03	+1.39	+3%	1.4×
Q1 9:03	NE	1st & 10	BUF 36	(9:03) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 37 for -1 yards (9-B.Chubb).	−0.51	−0.54	+0.03	−0.89	−1%	1.4×
Q1 8:24	NE	2nd & 11	BUF 37	(8:24) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 38-R.Stevenson (21-D.Igbinosun).	−0.64	−0.65	+0.01	−0.92	−2%	1.4×
Q1 8:19	NE	3rd & 11	BUF 37	(8:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 29 for 8 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).	+0.32	+0.28	+0.04	+0.19	+1%	1.4×
Q1 7:40	NE	4th & 3	BUF 29	(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).	+2.20	+2.12	+0.08	+3.08	+7%	1.4×
Q1 7:06	NE	1st & 10	BUF 14	(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].	+2.23	+2.72	−0.49	+2.05	+7%	1.4×
Q1 7:01	NE	Try	BUF 15	8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	−0.08	−0.81	+0.73	+0.07	0%	1.3×
Q1 7:01	BUF	Kickoff	NE 35	8-A.Borregales kicks 53 yards from NE 35 to BUF 12. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 26 yards (49-E.Hunter).	+0.51	+0.51	0.00	+0.82	+2%	1.3×
Q1 6:56	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 38	(6:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -4 yards (91-E.Ponder).	−0.77	−0.84	+0.07	−1.11	−3%	1.3×
Q1 6:15	BUF	2nd & 14	BUF 34	(6:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 40 for 6 yards (25-M.Jones).	+0.03	−0.01	+0.04	−0.13	0%	1.3×
Q1 5:43	BUF	3rd & 8	BUF 40	(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at NE 49 for 11 yards (7-C.Davis).	+1.63	+1.61	+0.02	+2.05	+5%	1.3×
Q1 5:12	BUF	1st & 10	NE 49	(5:12) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 46, recovered by BUF-4-J.Cook at BUF 49.	−0.60	−0.64	+0.04	−0.87	−2%	1.4×
Q1 4:31	BUF	2nd & 12	BUF 49	(4:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at NE 47 for 4 yards.	−0.27	−0.27	0.00	−0.39	−1%	1.3×
Q1 4:01	BUF	3rd & 8	NE 47	(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore left end to NE 41 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane).	−0.46	−0.44	−0.01	−0.56	+2%	1.3×
Q1 3:27	BUF	4th & 2	NE 41	(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).	+2.40	+2.43	−0.03	+2.92	+7%	1.3×
Q1 2:43	BUF	1st & 10	NE 32	(2:43) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 27 for 5 yards (54-D.Muasau).	+0.13	+0.15	−0.01	+0.06	0%	1.4×
Q1 2:03	BUF	2nd & 5	NE 27	(2:03) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 26 for 1 yard (22-C.Woods). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Offensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.	−0.55	−0.54	0.00	−0.50	−2%	1.4×
Q1 1:46	BUF	2nd & 10	NE 32	(1:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 19 for 13 yards (25-M.Jones).	+1.16	+1.16	+0.01	+1.15	+4%	1.4×
Q1 1:07	BUF	1st & 10	NE 19	(1:07) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at NE 20 for -1 yards (54-D.Muasau).	−0.47	−0.46	−0.01	−0.87	−2%	1.4×
Q1 0:35	BUF	2nd & 11	NE 20	(:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 15 for 5 yards (53-C.Elliss).	+0.01	−0.01	+0.01	−0.04	0%	1.4×
Q2 15:00	BUF	3rd & 6	NE 15	(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 7 yards (7-C.Davis).	+1.14	+1.11	+0.03	+1.50	+4%	1.4×
Q2 14:21	BUF	1st & 8	NE 8	(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.74	+2.19	−0.46	+1.56	+5%	1.4×
Q2 14:15	BUF	Try	NE 15	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	+0.12	−0.46	+0.58	+0.07	−2%	1.4×
Q2 14:15	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 44 yards from BUF 35 to NE 21, short of landing zone. PENALTY on BUF-16-T.Bass, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NE 40.	+0.90	+0.88	+0.02	+0.89	+3%	1.4×
Q2 14:15	NE	1st & 10	NE 40	(14:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Henderson.	−0.46	−0.46	0.00	−0.52	−2%	1.4×
Q2 14:10	NE	2nd & 10	NE 40	(14:10) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left end to BUF 49 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+1.02	+1.06	−0.03	+1.32	+4%	1.4×
Q2 13:31	NE	1st & 10	BUF 49	(13:31) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 41 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+0.51	+0.55	−0.03	+0.62	+2%	1.4×
Q2 12:56	NE	2nd & 2	BUF 41	(12:56) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (91-E.Oliver; 24-C.Bishop).	+0.25	+0.28	−0.03	+0.40	+1%	1.4×
Q2 12:18	NE	1st & 10	BUF 35	(12:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to BUF 27 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams).	+0.60	+0.61	−0.01	+0.63	+2%	1.4×
Q2 11:41	NE	2nd & 2	BUF 27	(11:41) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines).	+0.04	+0.04	0.00	+0.24	0%	1.4×
Q2 10:56	NE	1st & 10	BUF 24	(10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to BUF 23 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).	−0.27	−0.28	+0.01	−0.39	−1%	1.4×
Q2 10:14	NE	2nd & 9	BUF 23	(10:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at BUF 30.	−4.32	−4.50	+0.18	−5.43	−15%	1.4×
Q2 10:08	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 30	(10:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).	−0.04	−0.06	+0.02	−0.25	0%	1.4×
Q2 9:29	BUF	2nd & 6	BUF 34	(9:29) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis right guard to BUF 37 for 3 yards (50-G.Jacas; 99-Da.Jones).	−0.17	−0.19	+0.02	−0.16	−1%	1.4×
Q2 8:43	BUF	3rd & 3	BUF 37	(8:43) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.	−1.09	−1.09	0.00	−1.50	−4%	1.4×
Q2 8:35	BUF	4th & 3	BUF 37	(8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).	−1.23	−1.26	+0.03	−1.19	−5%	1.4×
Q2 8:21	NE	1st & 10	NE 37	(8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.46	−2%	1.4×
Q2 8:17	NE	2nd & 10	NE 37	(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 37 for 26 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).	+1.88	+1.93	−0.05	+2.21	+7%	1.4×
Q2 7:35	NE	1st & 10	BUF 37	(7:35) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 27 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).	+0.58	+0.60	−0.02	+0.65	+2%	1.4×
Q2 6:58	NE	1st & 10	BUF 27	(6:58) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 27 for no gain (21-D.Igbinosun).	−0.41	−0.39	−0.02	−0.41	−1%	1.4×
Q2 6:25	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 27	(6:25) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).	+2.42	+2.36	+0.07	+2.85	+8%	1.4×
Q2 5:41	NE	1st & 1	BUF 1	(5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game.	+0.34	+1.49	−1.15	+0.71	+2%	1.3×
Q2 5:38	NE	Try	BUF 15	8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	+0.02	−0.82	+0.84	+0.07	−1%	1.3×
Q2 5:38	BUF	Kickoff	NE 35	8-A.Borregales kicks 57 yards from NE 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 33 for 25 yards (36-C.Latu).	+0.25	+0.42	−0.18	+0.56	+1%	1.3×
Q2 5:32	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 33	(5:32) 4-J.Cook right end to BUF 34 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).	−0.35	−0.38	+0.03	−0.58	−1%	1.3×
Q2 4:51	BUF	2nd & 9	BUF 34	(4:51) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 42 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).	+0.44	+0.40	+0.04	+0.61	+2%	1.3×
Q2 4:07	BUF	3rd & 1	BUF 42	(4:07) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 43 for 1 yard (94-C.Durden; 14-R.Spillane).	+0.50	+0.44	+0.07	+0.30	+2%	1.3×
Q2 3:24	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).	+3.03	+2.93	+0.10	+3.52	+12%	1.3×
Q2 2:43	BUF	1st & 6	NE 6	(2:43) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (4-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).	−0.28	−0.37	+0.09	−0.49	−1%	1.4×
Q2 2:00	BUF	2nd & 6	NE 6	(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NE 6 - No Play.	−0.97	−0.94	−0.03	−1.33	−4%	1.4×
Q2 1:51	BUF	2nd & 16	NE 16	(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore.	−0.48	−0.49	+0.01	−0.62	−2%	1.4×
Q2 1:48	BUF	3rd & 16	NE 16	(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 16 - No Play. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced between downs.	+1.88	+1.82	+0.07	+2.56	+7%	1.4×
Q2 1:40	BUF	1st & 5	NE 6	(1:40) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 2 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas; 53-C.Elliss).	+0.36	+0.27	+0.09	+0.39	+1%	1.4×
Q2 1:06	BUF	2nd & 1	NE 2	(1:06) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 0-K.Coleman (25-M.Jones).	−0.61	−0.62	+0.01	−0.42	−2%	1.4×
Q2 1:03	BUF	3rd & 1	NE 2	(1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.35	+2.49	−1.14	+1.51	+5%	1.4×
Q2 1:00	BUF	Try	NE 15	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	+0.10	−0.44	+0.54	+0.07	−1%	1.4×
Q2 1:00	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NE 35.	+0.45	+0.57	−0.13	+0.30	+2%	1.4×
Q2 1:00	NE	1st & 10	NE 35	(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right.	−0.46	−0.46	0.00	−0.23	−2%	1.4×
Q2 0:53	NE	2nd & 10	NE 35	(:53) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Hollins.	−0.61	−0.61	0.00	−0.29	−3%	1.4×
Q2 0:45	NE	3rd & 10	NE 35	(:45) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 38-R.Stevenson [9-B.Chubb].	−1.07	−1.07	0.00	−0.55	−5%	1.4×
Q2 0:40	NE	4th & 10	NE 35	(:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).	+0.20	−0.14	+0.34	−0.28	0%	1.4×
Q2 0:29	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 31	(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman ran ob at NE 47 for 22 yards.	+1.16	+1.20	−0.04	+1.06	+5%	1.4×
Q2 0:23	BUF	1st & 10	NE 47	(:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 39 for 8 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 36.	−3.10	−3.50	+0.40	−1.78	−14%	1.3×
Q2 0:16	NE	1st & 10	NE 36	(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).	−5.23	−5.63	+0.40	−3.14	−21%	1.4×
Q2 0:05	BUF	1st & 9	NE 9	(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	−2.03	−2.05	+0.02	+0.09	−6%	1.2×
Q2 0:02	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 69 yards from BUF 35 to NE -4. 18-K.Williams to NE 30 for 34 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 21-D.Igbinosun).	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.02	0%	1.3×
Q3 15:00	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 23 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).	−0.02	+0.05	−0.07	+0.12	0%	1.3×
Q3 14:53	NE	1st & 10	NE 27	(14:53) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end to NE 30 for 3 yards (94-L.Jackson; 9-B.Chubb).	−0.16	−0.18	+0.02	−0.27	−1%	1.3×
Q3 14:16	NE	2nd & 7	NE 30	(14:16) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at NE 36 for 6 yards [15-G.Rousseau].	+0.27	+0.27	+0.01	+0.63	+1%	1.3×
Q3 13:47	NE	3rd & 1	NE 36	(13:47) 76-M.Moses reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for 6 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	+0.72	+0.72	0.00	+0.70	+3%	1.3×
Q3 13:08	NE	1st & 10	NE 42	(13:08) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 13 yards (90-D.Carter).	+0.71	+0.73	−0.03	+0.93	+3%	1.4×
Q3 12:33	NE	1st & 10	BUF 45	(12:33) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to BUF 44 for 1 yard (99-T.Parker).	−0.33	−0.34	0.00	−0.57	−2%	1.4×
Q3 11:49	NE	2nd & 9	BUF 44	(11:49) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 25 for 19 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Penalty on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.	+1.52	+1.54	−0.02	+1.91	+7%	1.4×
Q3 11:32	NE	1st & 10	BUF 25	(11:32) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to BUF 23 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 94-L.Jackson).	−0.16	−0.17	+0.02	−0.30	−1%	1.4×
Q3 10:47	NE	2nd & 8	BUF 23	(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+0.34	+0.31	+0.03	+0.26	+1%	1.4×
Q3 10:13	NE	3rd & 2	BUF 17	(10:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas. NE-13-M.Hollins was injured during the play.	−0.71	−0.72	0.00	−1.41	−3%	1.4×
Q3 10:09	NE	4th & 2	BUF 17	(10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.	+1.61	+1.56	+0.06	+2.54	+7%	1.4×
Q3 9:33	NE	1st & 8	BUF 8	(9:33) 32-T.Henderson right guard to BUF 2 for 6 yards (90-D.Carter; 1-M.Hairston). BUF-23-D.Alford was injured during the play.	+0.46	+0.41	+0.04	+0.50	+2%	1.4×
Q3 9:11	NE	2nd & 2	BUF 2	(9:11) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 82-E.Raridon.	−0.61	−0.62	0.00	−0.86	−3%	1.4×
Q3 9:06	NE	3rd & 2	BUF 2	(9:06) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 4 for -2 yards (94-L.Jackson). PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at BUF 2 - No Play.	+1.13	+1.12	+0.01	+1.41	+5%	1.4×
Q3 8:54	NE	1st & 1	BUF 1	(8:54) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 2, and recovers at BUF 2.	−0.51	−0.51	0.00	−0.54	−2%	1.4×
Q3 8:18	NE	2nd & 2	BUF 2	(8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+0.61	+2.12	−1.51	+1.16	+4%	1.4×
Q3 8:15	NE	Try	BUF 15	8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	−0.03	−0.95	+0.92	+0.07	0%	1.3×
Q3 8:15	BUF	Kickoff	NE 35	8-A.Borregales kicks 60 yards from NE 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 29 yards (54-D.Muasau; 49-E.Hunter).	+0.59	+0.54	+0.05	+0.56	+3%	1.3×
Q3 8:08	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 34	(8:08) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 36 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden). PENALTY on NE-94-C.Durden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 36.	+0.38	+0.38	0.00	+0.43	+2%	1.4×
Q3 7:52	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 41	(7:52) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook to BUF 43 for 2 yards (53-C.Elliss).	−0.26	−0.27	+0.01	−0.35	−1%	1.4×
Q3 7:11	BUF	2nd & 8	BUF 43	(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer [97-M.Williams].	−0.63	−0.63	0.00	−0.83	−3%	1.4×
Q3 7:07	BUF	3rd & 8	BUF 43	(7:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 44 for 1 yard (7-C.Davis).	−1.10	−1.10	0.00	−1.48	−5%	1.3×
Q3 6:32	BUF	4th & 7	BUF 44	(6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.	−0.22	−0.65	+0.43	−0.65	−2%	1.3×
Q3 6:23	NE	1st & 10	NE 26	(6:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 26 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).	−0.49	−0.49	−0.01	−0.57	−2%	1.3×
Q3 5:42	NE	2nd & 10	NE 26	(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NE 31 for 5 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	−0.10	−0.10	0.00	−0.20	0%	1.3×
Q3 4:59	NE	3rd & 5	NE 31	(4:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 41 for 10 yards.	+1.34	+1.34	0.00	+1.75	+6%	1.3×
Q3 4:30	NE	1st & 10	NE 41	(4:30) PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.	−0.49	−0.50	+0.01	−0.55	−2%	1.2×
Q3 4:19	NE	1st & 15	NE 36	(4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 44 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams; 99-T.Parker).	+0.32	+0.32	+0.01	+0.34	+1%	1.2×
Q3 3:42	NE	2nd & 7	NE 44	(3:42) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Williams (55-M.Hoecht).	−0.63	−0.64	0.00	−0.87	−3%	1.2×
Q3 3:38	NE	3rd & 7	NE 44	(3:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 87-R.Doubs (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].	−1.19	−1.19	0.00	−1.52	−6%	1.3×
Q3 3:33	NE	4th & 7	NE 44	(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).	+0.57	+0.19	+0.38	+0.36	+4%	1.3×
Q3 3:24	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 11	(3:24) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left [94-C.Durden].	−0.47	−0.47	0.00	−0.55	−2%	1.3×
Q3 3:16	BUF	2nd & 10	BUF 11	(3:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 17 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).	−0.01	+0.01	−0.02	−0.08	−1%	1.3×
Q3 2:40	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 17	(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Shakir.	−0.88	−0.88	0.00	−1.55	−4%	1.2×
Q3 2:36	BUF	4th & 4	BUF 17	(2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.	+0.11	−0.25	+0.37	+0.16	+1%	1.2×
Q3 2:29	NE	1st & 10	NE 37	(2:29) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 45 for 8 yards (24-C.Bishop). BUF-94-L.Jackson was injured during the play.	+0.50	+0.50	0.00	+0.59	+2%	1.2×
Q3 2:14	NE	2nd & 2	NE 45	(2:14) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 46 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker).	−0.45	−0.46	+0.01	−0.39	−2%	1.2×
Q3 1:38	NE	3rd & 1	NE 46	(1:38) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 45 for -1 yards (42-D.Williams, 52-K.Elarms-Orr).	−1.37	−1.38	+0.01	−2.17	−7%	1.2×
Q3 0:56	NE	4th & 2	NE 45	(:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.	−0.38	−0.81	+0.44	−0.52	−1%	1.3×
Q3 0:47	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 20	(:47) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 28 for 8 yards (92-J.Farmer; 14-R.Spillane).	+0.48	+0.54	−0.05	+0.60	+2%	1.3×
Q4 15:00	BUF	2nd & 2	BUF 28	(15:00) 4-J.Cook left end pushed ob at BUF 45 for 17 yards (25-M.Jones).	+0.81	+0.87	−0.05	+1.01	+5%	1.3×
Q4 14:26	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 45	(14:26) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 45 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).	+0.52	+0.58	−0.06	+0.58	+3%	1.3×
Q4 13:50	BUF	1st & 10	NE 45	(13:50) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to NE 42 for 3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.	−0.17	−0.14	−0.02	−0.33	−1%	1.3×
Q4 13:31	BUF	2nd & 7	NE 42	(13:31) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right.	−0.69	−0.69	0.00	−0.82	−4%	1.3×
Q4 13:26	BUF	3rd & 7	NE 42	(13:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).	+2.28	+2.31	−0.03	+2.80	+13%	1.3×
Q4 13:00	BUF	1st & 10	NE 20	(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 17 for 3 yards (91-E.Ponder).	−0.09	−0.07	−0.01	−0.18	0%	1.3×
Q4 12:21	BUF	2nd & 7	NE 17	(12:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 20 for -3 yards (28-K.Vildor).	−0.76	−0.74	−0.02	−0.97	−4%	1.3×
Q4 11:53	BUF	3rd & 10	NE 20	(11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 20 for no gain (25-M.Jones).	−0.69	−0.68	−0.01	−1.06	−4%	1.3×
Q4 11:11	BUF	4th & 10	NE 20	(11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	−0.60	−0.94	+0.34	+0.53	−3%	1.3×
Q4 11:07	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to NE 4. 9-C.Kiner to NE 26 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).	−0.48	−0.53	+0.05	+0.03	−3%	1.3×
Q4 11:02	NE	1st & 10	NE 26	(11:02) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 34 for 8 yards (9-B.Chubb).	+0.48	+0.48	0.00	+0.46	+3%	1.3×
Q4 10:24	NE	2nd & 2	NE 34	(10:24) 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NE 35 for 1 yard (15-G.Rousseau; 42-D.Williams).	−0.43	−0.43	0.00	−0.28	−3%	1.3×
Q4 9:49	NE	3rd & 1	NE 35	(9:49) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 36 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).	+0.43	+0.43	0.00	+0.44	+3%	1.3×
Q4 9:09	NE	1st & 10	NE 36	(9:09) 32-T.Henderson left end pushed ob at NE 44 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: NE-82-E.Raridon has returned to the game.	+0.49	+0.50	−0.01	+0.56	+3%	1.2×
Q4 8:31	NE	2nd & 2	NE 44	(8:31) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 39 for -5 yards (96-D.Walker).	−1.29	−1.30	+0.01	−1.35	−9%	1.2×
Q4 7:47	NE	3rd & 7	NE 39	(7:47) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left guard to NE 49 for 10 yards (1-M.Hairston). PENALTY on NE-66-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 39 - No Play.	−0.90	−0.91	+0.01	−1.00	−7%	1.2×
Q4 7:30	NE	3rd & 17	NE 29	(7:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 42 for 13 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	+0.04	+0.04	0.00	−0.18	0%	1.2×
Q4 6:45	NE	4th & 4	NE 42	(6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.	−0.04	−0.64	+0.60	−0.38	+3%	1.2×
Q4 6:36	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 20	(6:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 36 for 16 yards (4-C.Woodson).	+0.90	+0.89	+0.01	+1.03	+6%	1.2×
Q4 5:54	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 36	(5:54) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for 6 yards (92-J.Farmer).	+0.19	+0.17	+0.02	+0.16	+1%	1.1×
Q4 5:11	BUF	2nd & 4	BUF 42	(5:11) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [91-E.Ponder]. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.	−0.63	−0.63	0.00	−0.68	−4%	1.1×
Q4 5:06	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 42	(5:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (31-K.Byard).	+2.08	+2.11	−0.04	+2.36	+14%	1.1×
Q4 4:33	BUF	1st & 10	NE 34	(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.81	+2.56	−0.75	+3.47	+10%	0.9×
Q4 4:27	BUF	Try	NE 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 5-J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.	−0.50	−1.38	+0.88	−0.95	+1%	0.8×
Q4 4:27	NE	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to NE 3. 18-K.Williams to NE 27 for 24 yards (41-K.Walker; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).	+0.54	+0.49	+0.05	+0.09	+3%	0.7×
Q4 4:21	NE	1st & 10	NE 27	(4:21) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-D.Williams).	+0.65	+0.66	0.00	+0.72	+4%	0.8×
Q4 3:47	NE	1st & 10	NE 41	(3:47) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Henderson.	−0.47	−0.47	0.00	−0.55	−3%	0.8×
Q4 3:42	NE	2nd & 10	NE 41	(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to BUF 47 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+0.97	+0.98	−0.02	+1.38	+6%	0.8×
Q4 3:06	NE	1st & 10	BUF 47	(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (1-M.Hairston).	−0.48	−0.48	0.00	−0.44	−3%	0.9×
Q4 3:00	NE	2nd & 10	BUF 47	(3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game.	+1.40	+1.42	−0.02	+1.40	+10%	0.8×
Q4 2:25	NE	1st & 10	BUF 28	(2:25) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to BUF 23 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+0.02	+0.01	+0.01	+0.38	+1%	1.0×
Q4 2:00	NE	2nd & 5	BUF 23	(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams.	−0.50	−0.51	0.00	−0.46	−4%	1.0×
Q4 1:55	NE	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.40	+3.49	−1.08	+3.55	+19%	0.9×
Q4 1:50	NE	Try	BUF 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.	+1.21	+0.44	+0.77	+1.05	+8%	1.0×
Q4 1:50	BUF	Kickoff	NE 35	8-A.Borregales kicks 59 yards from NE 35 to BUF 6. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 18 yards (91-E.Ponder; 54-D.Muasau).	−0.15	+0.09	−0.24	+0.07	−1%	1.0×
Q4 1:42	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 24	(1:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder).	+0.26	+0.27	0.00	+0.19	+3%	1.0×
Q4 1:26	BUF	2nd & 3	BUF 31	(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid (93-L.Taylor) [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.	+0.29	+0.29	0.00	+0.23	+3%	1.1×
Q4 1:21	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 36	(1:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).	−0.10	−0.10	0.00	−0.05	−1%	1.1×
Q4 1:14	BUF	2nd & 6	BUF 40	(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).	+0.05	−0.31	+0.35	−1.73	−12%	1.1×
Q4 1:05	NE	1st & 10	NE 19	(1:05) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 19 for no gain (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).	−0.49	−0.50	+0.01	−0.10	0%	1.0×
Q4 1:00	NE	2nd & 10	NE 19	(1:00) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism.	−0.64	−0.65	+0.01	−0.20	−8%	1.0×
Q4 0:55	NE	3rd & 10	NE 19	(:55) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+1.72	+1.71	0.00	+0.53	+40%	1.1×
Q4 0:49	NE	1st & 10	NE 31	(:49) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 33 for 2 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 8-T.Bernard).	−0.29	−0.31	+0.01	−0.69	+1%	0.2×
Q4 0:42	NE	2nd & 8	NE 33	(:42) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 32 for -1 yards.	−0.70	−0.70	+0.01	0.00	0%	0.1×
Q4 0:39	NE	3rd & 9	NE 32	(:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 31 for -1 yards.	+2.63	+1.77	+0.86	0.00	+1%	0.1×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	D.Maye	NE	46	+4.9+0.13	+6.0+0.75	—	+10.8+0.24	+2.9+0.18	+14.8+0.32
	K.Coleman	BUF	7	—	—	+6.8+0.97	+6.8+0.97	+2.2+0.88	+8.9+1.28
	H.Henry	NE	5	—	—	+4.9+0.97	+4.9+0.97	+1.7+0.97	+4.2+0.85
	J.Allen	BUF	39	+4.3+0.13	+0.4+0.08	—	+4.7+0.12	+1.4+0.10	+3.6+0.09
	J.Cook	BUF	14	—	+4.4+0.36	−0.2−0.12	+4.1+0.29	+1.5+0.29	+3.3+0.23
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	D.Maye	22	37	3	1	1	2697.3	+10.0+0.26	+4.9+0.13	+1.3+0.09

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Allen	23	33	1	1	1	2537.7	+3.7+0.11	+4.3+0.13	+1.3+0.10

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	T.Henderson	14	0	423.0	−1.9−0.14	−1.3−0.10	−0.3−0.07
	R.Stevenson	13	1	473.6	−0.2−0.01	−0.2−0.01	0.0+0.01
	D.Maye	8	0	546.8	+4.8+0.60	+6.0+0.75	+1.6+0.69

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Cook	12	1	756.2	+3.7+0.31	+4.4+0.36	+1.6+0.36
	J.Allen	5	1	40.8	−0.1−0.02	+0.4+0.08	+0.2+0.10
	D.Moore	1	0	66.0	−0.6−0.56	−0.5−0.46	−0.2−0.46
	R.Davis	1	0	33.0	−0.2−0.16	−0.2−0.17	−0.1−0.17
	T.Johnson	1	0	33.0	−0.2−0.18	−0.1−0.09	0.0−0.09

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	R.Doubs	9	6	2	589.7	+5.7+0.64	+1.0+0.11	+0.3+0.10
	H.Henry	5	5	0	6212.4	+4.2+0.85	+4.9+0.97	+1.7+0.97
	R.Stevenson	5	3	0	279.0	−1.1−0.21	−1.0−0.20	−0.4−0.23
	M.Hollins	4	3	0	5317.7	+4.0+1.01	+3.1+0.78	+1.2+0.77
	E.Chism	4	2	1	4221.0	+4.3+1.07	+2.7+0.68	+0.6+0.49
	D.Douglas	3	2	0	157.5	+0.1+0.04	+0.5+0.18	+0.2+0.16
	E.Raridon	2	1	0	1212.0	+0.7+0.33	+0.5+0.26	+0.2+0.28
	T.Henderson	2	0	0	0—	−1.1−0.54	−0.9−0.46	−0.3−0.46
	K.Williams	2	0	0	0—	−1.3−0.66	−1.1−0.57	−0.4−0.58

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	K.Shakir	8	7	0	8211.7	+0.5+0.06	−0.3−0.03	−0.1−0.03
	K.Coleman	7	6	1	11619.3	+8.9+1.28	+6.8+0.97	+2.2+0.88
	J.Palmer	4	1	0	33.0	−4.4−1.10	−1.8−0.46	−0.7−0.49
	D.Kincaid	2	1	0	77.0	−1.4−0.68	−0.8−0.41	−0.4−0.52
	J.Cook	2	2	0	84.0	−0.5−0.24	−0.2−0.12	−0.1−0.12
	D.Moore	2	1	0	1111.0	+1.4+0.72	+1.1+0.57	+0.4+0.54
	T.Johnson	2	2	0	94.5	+1.9+0.93	+1.7+0.86	+0.7+0.88
	D.Knox	2	2	0	136.5	+0.6+0.29	+0.4+0.22	+0.2+0.21
	R.Davis	1	1	0	44.0	−0.3−0.25	0.0−0.04	0.0−0.04