MIA 10, MIN 15 — week 4, 2026

MIA

10 at 15

MIN

Week 4 · 2026 · Final

MIA season | MIN season

BASE CASE

before kickoff

MIA 22%

Win expectancy

from how they played

MIA 4%

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
MIN	91	15	3363.7	−9.6−0.105	−2.6−0.028	−5.8−0.064	+3.2+0.036	+0.2+0.009
MIA	48	10	1984.1	−12.6−0.263	−6.8−0.143	−7.6−0.159	+0.8+0.016	−2.9−0.184
NET	43	5	138−0.4	+3.1+0.158	+4.3+0.114	+1.8+0.095	+2.5+0.019	+3.1+0.193
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is MIN minus MIA.

Game Timeline

MIA at MIN. MIN won by 5. Two panels. Top: MIN's win probability across 148 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; MIN was favored on 100% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at MIN by 10.6 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +10% at play 60, M.Willis pass incomplete short left to J.Wright… — FUMBLES; -13% at play 83, O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards; +8% at play 121, K.Murray pass short middle to T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14….

Excitement

0.5 bits

#13 of 16 this week

26th percentile since 2006

Tension

0.78

#8 of 16 this week

61st percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

310 pts

#12 of 16 this week

36th percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

53%

#10 of 16 this week

51st percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#14 of 16 this week

17th percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

51%

#16 of 16 this week

9th percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 5:50	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 48	(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.	−3.91	−3.97	+0.06	−4.71	−10%	1.2×
2	Q3 14:08	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 36	(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).	+3.75	+3.80	−0.05	+4.68	+13%	0.9×
3	Q4 0:38	MIN	3rd & 6	MIA 6	(:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 7 for -1 yards.	−2.84	−2.21	−0.63	−3.46	0%	0.0×
4	Q3 2:43	MIN	3rd & 1	MIN 35	(2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).	−2.44	−2.42	−0.02	−3.50	−6%	0.7×
5	Q1 3:27	MIA	3rd & 4	MIN 48	(3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).	−2.04	−2.00	−0.04	−2.61	−7%	1.4×
6	Q4 4:22	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 33	(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents).	+1.85	+1.83	+0.02	+1.94	+7%	0.6×
7	Q4 12:21	MIN	3rd & 6	MIN 47	(12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).	+1.65	+1.68	−0.03	+2.08	+8%	1.2×
8	Q2 0:04	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 15	(:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	−1.61	−1.44	−0.17	+0.15	−1%	0.9×
9	Q2 14:56	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 30	(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).	−1.60	−1.65	+0.05	−2.15	−6%	1.4×
10	Q4 2:07	MIN	3rd & 5	MIA 10	(2:07) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 2 for 8 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	+1.60	+1.54	+0.06	+2.48	+1%	0.1×
11	Q2 9:17	MIN	2nd & 15	MIN 36	(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).	+1.52	+1.51	+0.02	+1.62	+4%	1.3×
12	Q3 4:57	MIA	3rd & 2	MIA 41	(4:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−1.51	−1.56	+0.05	−2.16	−5%	0.9×
13	Q3 10:13	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 46	(10:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIA 35 for 19 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+1.48	+1.57	−0.08	+1.63	+4%	1.0×
14	Q4 3:01	MIN	2nd & 7	MIA 37	(3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 22 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+1.46	+1.35	+0.11	+1.94	+4%	0.3×
15	Q1 11:04	MIA	4th & 9	MIA 26	(11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).	−1.40	−1.80	+0.40	−2.17	−3%	1.4×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 5:50	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 48	(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.	−3.91	−3.97	+0.06	−4.71	−10%	1.2×
2	Q3 14:08	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 36	(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).	+3.75	+3.80	−0.05	+4.68	+13%	0.9×
3	Q1 3:27	MIA	3rd & 4	MIN 48	(3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).	−2.04	−2.00	−0.04	−2.61	−7%	1.4×
4	Q2 14:56	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 30	(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).	−1.60	−1.65	+0.05	−2.15	−6%	1.4×
5	Q1 11:04	MIA	4th & 9	MIA 26	(11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).	−1.40	−1.80	+0.40	−2.17	−3%	1.4×
6	Q2 9:17	MIN	2nd & 15	MIN 36	(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).	+1.52	+1.51	+0.02	+1.62	+4%	1.3×
7	Q4 12:21	MIN	3rd & 6	MIN 47	(12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).	+1.65	+1.68	−0.03	+2.08	+8%	1.2×
8	Q2 10:15	MIN	3rd & 2	MIN 26	(10:15) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIN 41 for 15 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).	+1.38	+1.34	+0.04	+1.39	+4%	1.3×
9	Q1 7:57	MIN	4th & 14	MIA 29	(7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.24	+0.74	+0.50	+1.34	+5%	1.4×
10	Q1 5:13	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 38	(5:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles up the middle to MIA 46 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith).	+1.20	+1.27	−0.07	+1.80	+4%	1.4×
11	Q2 14:15	MIN	4th & 19	MIN 22	(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).	+1.16	+0.72	+0.44	+0.78	+5%	1.4×
12	Q3 2:43	MIN	3rd & 1	MIN 35	(2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).	−2.44	−2.42	−0.02	−3.50	−6%	0.7×
13	Q1 15:00	MIN	Kickoff	MIA 35	47-R.Patterson kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 47 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	+1.09	+1.20	−0.10	+1.33	+3%	1.4×
14	Q1 11:08	MIA	3rd & 9	MIA 26	(11:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 18-C.Bell.	−1.07	−1.07	0.00	−1.41	−3%	1.4×
15	Q3 10:13	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 46	(10:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIA 35 for 19 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+1.48	+1.57	−0.08	+1.63	+4%	1.0×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q3 14:08	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 36	(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).	+3.75	+3.80	−0.05	+4.68	+13%	0.9×
2	Q2 5:50	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 48	(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.	−3.91	−3.97	+0.06	−4.71	−10%	1.2×
3	Q4 12:21	MIN	3rd & 6	MIN 47	(12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).	+1.65	+1.68	−0.03	+2.08	+8%	1.2×
4	Q4 4:22	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 33	(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents).	+1.85	+1.83	+0.02	+1.94	+7%	0.6×
5	Q1 3:27	MIA	3rd & 4	MIN 48	(3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).	−2.04	−2.00	−0.04	−2.61	−7%	1.4×
6	Q4 10:08	MIN	4th & 1	MIA 30	(10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).	+1.26	+1.25	+0.01	+1.85	+6%	1.1×
7	Q3 2:43	MIN	3rd & 1	MIN 35	(2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).	−2.44	−2.42	−0.02	−3.50	−6%	0.7×
8	Q2 14:56	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 30	(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).	−1.60	−1.65	+0.05	−2.15	−6%	1.4×
9	Q1 7:57	MIN	4th & 14	MIA 29	(7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.24	+0.74	+0.50	+1.34	+5%	1.4×
10	Q2 14:15	MIN	4th & 19	MIN 22	(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).	+1.16	+0.72	+0.44	+0.78	+5%	1.4×
11	Q3 4:57	MIA	3rd & 2	MIA 41	(4:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−1.51	−1.56	+0.05	−2.16	−5%	0.9×
12	Q2 9:17	MIN	2nd & 15	MIN 36	(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).	+1.52	+1.51	+0.02	+1.62	+4%	1.3×
13	Q4 5:48	MIA	4th & 8	MIA 20	(5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.	+1.20	+0.80	+0.41	+0.78	+4%	0.6×
14	Q2 7:04	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 28	(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.	+0.96	+0.97	−0.01	+1.19	+4%	1.2×
15	Q1 5:13	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 38	(5:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles up the middle to MIA 46 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith).	+1.20	+1.27	−0.07	+1.80	+4%	1.4×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 148 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	MIN	Kickoff	MIA 35	47-R.Patterson kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 47 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	+1.09	+1.20	−0.10	+1.33	+3%	1.4×
Q1 14:52	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 48	(14:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (92-Z.Sieler).	−1.00	−1.14	+0.15	−1.44	−3%	1.4×
Q1 14:27	MIN	2nd & 18	MIN 40	(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 42 for 2 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).	−0.37	−0.53	+0.16	−0.85	−1%	1.4×
Q1 13:55	MIN	3rd & 16	MIN 42	(13:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to MIA 48 for 10 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks).	−0.05	−0.28	+0.23	−0.57	0%	1.4×
Q1 13:00	MIN	4th & 6	MIA 48	(13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.	+0.62	−0.32	+0.93	−0.36	+2%	1.4×
Q1 12:50	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 10	(12:50) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 89-W.Kacmarek to MIA 25 for 15 yards (51-B.Cashman).	+0.88	+0.79	+0.09	+1.07	+3%	1.4×
Q1 12:20	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 25	(12:20) 5-J.Wright up the middle to MIA 27 for 2 yards (61-J.Redmond).	−0.19	−0.28	+0.08	−0.56	−1%	1.4×
Q1 11:48	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 27	(11:48) 5-J.Wright left end to MIA 26 for -1 yards (17-K.Van Noy, 43-A.Van Ginkel).	−0.63	−0.70	+0.07	−0.85	−2%	1.4×
Q1 11:08	MIA	3rd & 9	MIA 26	(11:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 18-C.Bell.	−1.07	−1.07	0.00	−1.41	−3%	1.4×
Q1 11:04	MIA	4th & 9	MIA 26	(11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).	−1.40	−1.80	+0.40	−2.17	−3%	1.4×
Q1 10:51	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 38	(10:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIA 33 for 5 yards (94-J.Phillips; 10-J.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 38 - No Play.	+0.54	+0.54	+0.01	+0.48	+1%	1.4×
Q1 10:30	MIN	1st & 5	MIA 33	(10:30) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIA 25 for 8 yards (11-D.Trader).	+0.25	+0.23	+0.02	+0.35	+1%	1.4×
Q1 9:48	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 25	(9:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 33-A.Jones.	−0.39	−0.39	0.00	−0.47	−1%	1.4×
Q1 9:44	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 25	(9:44) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 21 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 23.	−0.74	−0.74	+0.01	−1.14	−2%	1.4×
Q1 9:30	MIN	2nd & 18	MIA 33	(9:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play.	−0.25	−0.27	+0.01	−0.44	−1%	1.4×
Q1 9:19	MIN	2nd & 23	MIA 38	(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 14-J.Jennings to MIA 30 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.05	−0.06	+0.01	−0.07	0%	1.4×
Q1 8:41	MIN	3rd & 15	MIA 30	(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 29 for 1 yard (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.64	−0.69	+0.05	−0.92	−2%	1.4×
Q1 7:57	MIN	4th & 14	MIA 29	(7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.24	+0.74	+0.50	+1.34	+5%	1.4×
Q1 7:54	MIA	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 64 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 1. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 2. 5-J.Wright to MIA 23 for 21 yards (24-J.Ward; 82-J.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-59-R.McGraw, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 23.	+0.87	−0.37	+1.24	−0.52	+3%	1.4×
Q1 7:49	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 18	(7:49) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman pushed ob at MIA 21 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus).	−0.24	−0.19	−0.05	−0.40	−1%	1.4×
Q1 7:18	MIA	2nd & 7	MIA 21	(7:18) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 33 for 12 yards (26-T.Jackson; 51-B.Cashman).	+0.95	+1.00	−0.05	+1.41	+3%	1.4×
Q1 6:38	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 33	(6:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon to MIA 33 for no gain (41-J.Golday) [15-D.Turner].	−0.49	−0.45	−0.04	−0.59	−2%	1.4×
Q1 5:55	MIA	2nd & 10	MIA 33	(5:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon pushed ob at MIA 33 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, declined.	−0.62	−0.59	−0.02	−0.79	−2%	1.4×
Q1 5:30	MIA	3rd & 10	MIA 33	(5:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play.	+0.47	+0.49	−0.02	+0.46	+2%	1.4×
Q1 5:13	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 38	(5:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles up the middle to MIA 46 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith).	+1.20	+1.27	−0.07	+1.80	+4%	1.4×
Q1 4:26	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 46	(4:26) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 21-K.Coleman (44-J.Metellus) [51-B.Cashman].	−0.47	−0.46	−0.01	−0.56	−2%	1.4×
Q1 4:20	MIA	2nd & 10	MIA 46	(4:20) 5-J.Wright left end pushed ob at MIA 46 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.	−0.77	−0.74	−0.02	−1.00	−3%	1.4×
Q1 3:56	MIA	2nd & 20	MIA 36	(3:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington pushed ob at MIN 48 for 16 yards (15-D.Turner).	+0.65	+0.72	−0.07	+0.82	+2%	1.4×
Q1 3:27	MIA	3rd & 4	MIN 48	(3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).	−2.04	−2.00	−0.04	−2.61	−7%	1.4×
Q1 2:50	MIA	4th & 12	MIA 44	(2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game.	+0.10	−0.20	+0.30	−0.33	0%	1.4×
Q1 2:39	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 21	(2:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 25 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.10	−0.10	0.00	−0.05	0%	1.4×
Q1 2:07	MIN	2nd & 6	MIN 25	(2:07) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 29 for 4 yards (90-M.Herring; 20-J.Brooks).	−0.02	−0.04	+0.01	+0.04	0%	1.4×
Q1 1:23	MIN	3rd & 2	MIN 29	(1:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIN 31 for 2 yards (3-C.Johnson). The first down was assisted by replay.	+0.63	+0.62	+0.02	+0.67	+2%	1.4×
Q1 0:56	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 31	(:56) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIA 48 for 21 yards (3-C.Johnson; 4-J.Marshall). PENALTY on MIN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play.	−0.49	−0.51	+0.02	−0.65	−1%	1.3×
Q1 0:33	MIN	1st & 15	MIN 26	(:33) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 16-M.Taaffe).	−0.03	−0.06	+0.03	−0.23	0%	1.4×
Q2 15:00	MIN	2nd & 11	MIN 30	(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones (20-J.Brooks) [93-Z.Biggers].	−0.59	−0.59	0.00	−0.83	−2%	1.4×
Q2 14:56	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 30	(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).	−1.60	−1.65	+0.05	−2.15	−6%	1.4×
Q2 14:15	MIN	4th & 19	MIN 22	(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).	+1.16	+0.72	+0.44	+0.78	+5%	1.4×
Q2 14:06	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 26	(14:06) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (0-I.Pace; 55-E.Wilson).	−0.23	−0.17	−0.06	−0.40	−2%	1.4×
Q2 13:24	MIA	2nd & 7	MIA 29	(13:24) 6-M.Washington right end to MIA 32 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman; 44-J.Metellus).	−0.29	−0.23	−0.06	−0.34	−1%	1.4×
Q2 12:40	MIA	3rd & 4	MIA 32	(12:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell. PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 32.	−1.08	−1.06	−0.02	−1.44	−4%	1.3×
Q2 12:26	MIA	4th & 4	MIA 32	(12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson).	+0.52	+0.09	+0.43	−0.23	+2%	1.3×
Q2 12:15	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 18	(12:15) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 22 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 20-J.Brooks).	−0.05	−0.08	+0.03	−0.30	0%	1.3×
Q2 11:51	MIN	2nd & 6	MIN 22	(11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 23 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 9-J.Uche). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 22 - No Play.	+0.82	+0.78	+0.04	+1.11	+3%	1.3×
Q2 11:21	MIN	2nd & 1	MIN 27	(11:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIN 28 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). PENALTY on MIN-3-J.Addison, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 27 - No Play.	−0.72	−0.77	+0.05	−1.09	−2%	1.3×
Q2 10:53	MIN	2nd & 6	MIN 22	(10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 26 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.05	−0.01	+0.06	+0.12	0%	1.3×
Q2 10:15	MIN	3rd & 2	MIN 26	(10:15) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIN 41 for 15 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).	+1.38	+1.34	+0.04	+1.39	+4%	1.3×
Q2 9:45	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 41	(9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play.	−0.46	−0.50	+0.04	−0.59	−1%	1.3×
Q2 9:25	MIN	1st & 15	MIN 36	(9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right [59-R.McGraw].	−0.44	−0.45	+0.01	−0.56	−1%	1.3×
Q2 9:17	MIN	2nd & 15	MIN 36	(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).	+1.52	+1.51	+0.02	+1.62	+4%	1.3×
Q2 8:50	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 49	(8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 34 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).	+0.91	+0.89	+0.02	+0.77	+2%	1.2×
Q2 8:06	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 34	(8:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [44-C.Robinson].	−0.42	−0.43	0.00	−0.43	−1%	1.2×
Q2 8:01	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 34	(8:01) (Shotgun) 4-M.Price left end to MIA 32 for 2 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	−0.33	−0.35	+0.02	−0.49	−1%	1.2×
Q2 7:19	MIN	3rd & 8	MIA 32	(7:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle [44-C.Robinson].	−0.88	−0.88	0.00	−1.24	−3%	1.2×
Q2 7:13	MIN	4th & 8	MIA 32	(7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+0.65	+0.73	−0.07	+1.44	+4%	1.3×
Q2 7:08	MIA	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 0. 5-J.Wright pushed ob at MIA 28 for 28 yards (41-J.Golday).	+0.08	+0.26	−0.18	+0.06	0%	1.2×
Q2 7:04	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 28	(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.	+0.96	+0.97	−0.01	+1.19	+4%	1.2×
Q2 6:46	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 46	(6:46) PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.	−0.49	−0.50	+0.02	−0.72	−2%	1.3×
Q2 6:25	MIA	1st & 15	MIA 41	(6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright right guard to MIA 48 for 7 yards (44-J.Metellus).	+0.24	+0.23	0.00	+0.18	+1%	1.2×
Q2 5:50	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 48	(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.	−3.91	−3.97	+0.06	−4.71	−10%	1.2×
Q2 5:45	MIN	1st & 10	50	(5:45) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (59-R.McGraw). MIN-71-C.Darrisaw was injured during the play.	−0.32	−0.27	−0.05	−0.50	−1%	1.0×
Q2 5:09	MIN	2nd & 8	MIA 48	(5:09) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones.	−0.68	−0.68	0.00	−0.71	−2%	1.0×
Q2 5:06	MIN	3rd & 8	MIA 48	(5:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison.	−1.21	−1.20	−0.01	−1.60	−4%	1.1×
Q2 5:01	MIN	4th & 8	MIA 48	(5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.	−1.04	−1.10	+0.06	−1.00	−1%	1.2×
Q2 4:55	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 28	(4:55) 5-J.Wright right tackle to MIA 30 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus).	−0.25	−0.29	+0.04	−0.26	−1%	1.2×
Q2 4:12	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 30	(4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end ran ob at MIA 41 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play.	−0.85	−0.90	+0.04	−0.83	−3%	1.2×
Q2 3:46	MIA	2nd & 18	MIA 20	(3:46) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 31 for 11 yards (61-J.Redmond).	+0.43	+0.35	+0.08	+0.50	+1%	1.1×
Q2 2:59	MIA	3rd & 7	MIA 31	(2:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).	−1.06	−1.07	+0.01	−1.23	−3%	1.1×
Q2 2:53	MIA	4th & 7	MIA 31	(2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay.	+0.10	+0.14	−0.03	−0.30	+2%	1.0×
Q2 2:43	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 24	(2:43) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 43 for 19 yards (8-J.Brents).	+0.96	+1.00	−0.04	+1.01	+2%	1.1×
Q2 2:04	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 43	(2:04) (Shotgun) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end to MIN 49 for 6 yards (8-J.Brents; 16-M.Taaffe).	+0.17	+0.18	−0.01	+0.19	0%	1.0×
Q2 1:59	MIN	2nd & 4	MIN 49	(1:59) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (93-Z.Biggers).	−0.20	−0.17	−0.03	+0.05	0%	1.0×
Q2 1:26	MIN	3rd & 1	MIA 48	(1:26) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 46 for 2 yards (23-Z.Anderson).	+0.53	+0.56	−0.04	+0.29	+2%	1.0×
Q2 0:55	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 46	(:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 26 for 20 yards (23-Z.Anderson).	+1.13	+1.18	−0.04	+1.08	+1%	0.9×
Q2 0:46	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 26	(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIA 33 for -7 yards (92-Z.Sieler).	−1.10	−1.10	−0.01	−0.99	−3%	0.9×
Q2 0:40	MIN	2nd & 17	MIA 33	(:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-T.Felton to MIA 19 for 14 yards (23-Z.Anderson).	+1.00	+1.02	−0.03	+0.46	+3%	1.0×
Q2 0:16	MIN	3rd & 3	MIA 19	(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 4 yards (20-J.Brooks; 10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.64	+0.64	0.00	−0.27	+1%	0.9×
Q2 0:10	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 15	(:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left.	−0.38	−0.37	−0.01	−0.10	−1%	0.9×
Q2 0:04	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 15	(:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	−1.61	−1.44	−0.17	+0.15	−1%	0.9×
Q3 15:00	MIA	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 58 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 7. 5-J.Wright to MIA 31 for 24 yards (32-C.Chambliss).	+0.06	+0.20	−0.14	+0.33	0%	0.9×
Q3 14:55	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 31	(14:55) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 89-W.Kacmarek.	−0.46	−0.45	0.00	−0.56	−1%	0.9×
Q3 14:50	MIA	2nd & 10	MIA 31	(14:50) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson).	−0.09	−0.06	−0.03	−0.25	0%	0.9×
Q3 14:08	MIA	3rd & 5	MIA 36	(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).	+3.75	+3.80	−0.05	+4.68	+13%	0.9×
Q3 13:28	MIA	1st & 10	MIN 11	(13:28) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).	−0.15	−0.13	−0.02	−0.46	−1%	1.2×
Q3 12:48	MIA	2nd & 8	MIN 9	(12:48) 6-M.Washington left end to MIN 9 for no gain (43-A.Van Ginkel).	−0.53	−0.51	−0.03	−0.78	−2%	1.2×
Q3 12:06	MIA	3rd & 8	MIN 9	(12:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (2-I.Rodgers).	−0.89	−0.89	0.00	−1.03	−3%	1.2×
Q3 11:58	MIA	4th & 8	MIN 9	(11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.	−0.18	−0.40	+0.23	+0.06	−3%	1.1×
Q3 11:56	MIN	Kickoff	MIA 35	47-R.Patterson kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the MIN 35.	+0.36	+0.62	−0.27	+0.52	+1%	1.0×
Q3 11:56	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 35	(11:56) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left end to MIN 36 for 1 yard (92-Z.Sieler). ** Injury Update: MIN-71-C.Darrisaw has returned to the game.	−0.40	−0.34	−0.05	−0.42	−1%	1.0×
Q3 11:30	MIN	2nd & 9	MIN 36	(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 42 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+0.02	+0.09	−0.07	−0.15	0%	1.0×
Q3 10:54	MIN	3rd & 3	MIN 42	(10:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at MIN 46 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	+0.85	+0.91	−0.06	+1.27	+3%	1.0×
Q3 10:22	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 46	(10:22) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right.	−0.47	−0.45	−0.01	−0.58	−1%	1.0×
Q3 10:13	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 46	(10:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIA 35 for 19 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+1.48	+1.57	−0.08	+1.63	+4%	1.0×
Q3 9:42	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 35	(9:42) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 27 for 8 yards (90-M.Herring).	+0.57	+0.61	−0.04	+0.52	+1%	0.9×
Q3 9:06	MIN	2nd & 2	MIA 27	(9:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Jennings. PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 27 - No Play.	+0.14	+0.14	0.00	+0.41	0%	0.8×
Q3 9:01	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 22	(9:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 21-D.Claiborne to MIA 23 for -1 yards (3-C.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-14-J.Jennings, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22 - No Play.	−0.81	−0.78	−0.03	−1.23	−2%	0.8×
Q3 8:30	MIN	1st & 20	MIA 32	(8:30) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.31	−0.29	−0.02	−0.38	−1%	0.9×
Q3 8:01	MIN	2nd & 17	MIA 29	(8:01) (No Huddle) 3-J.Addison left end to MIA 30 for -1 yards (4-J.Marshall, 9-J.Uche).	−0.63	−0.60	−0.03	−0.74	−1%	0.9×
Q3 7:18	MIN	3rd & 18	MIA 30	(7:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at MIA 23 for 7 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.08	−0.07	−0.01	−0.47	0%	0.9×
Q3 6:38	MIN	4th & 11	MIA 23	(6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+0.48	0.00	+0.48	+0.86	+3%	0.9×
Q3 6:35	MIA	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 55 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 10. 5-J.Wright to MIA 33 for 23 yards (0-I.Pace; 32-C.Chambliss).	+0.35	+0.57	−0.22	+0.46	+1%	0.8×
Q3 6:30	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 33	(6:30) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 39 for 6 yards (51-B.Cashman; 95-C.Banks).	+0.22	+0.17	+0.05	+0.23	+1%	0.9×
Q3 5:45	MIA	2nd & 4	MIA 39	(5:45) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).	−0.25	−0.30	+0.06	−0.50	−1%	0.9×
Q3 4:57	MIA	3rd & 2	MIA 41	(4:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−1.51	−1.56	+0.05	−2.16	−5%	0.9×
Q3 4:21	MIA	4th & 5	MIA 38	(4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert).	−0.17	−0.59	+0.42	−0.80	−1%	0.7×
Q3 4:11	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 26	(4:11) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (44-C.Robinson). ** Injury Update: MIA-11-D.Trader has returned to the game.	−0.10	−0.09	−0.02	−0.15	0%	0.7×
Q3 3:28	MIN	2nd & 6	MIN 30	(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 35 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks).	+0.13	+0.16	−0.02	+0.28	0%	0.7×
Q3 2:43	MIN	3rd & 1	MIN 35	(2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).	−2.44	−2.42	−0.02	−3.50	−6%	0.7×
Q3 2:00	MIN	4th & 12	MIN 24	(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.	−0.28	−0.61	+0.34	−0.64	−1%	0.9×
Q3 1:52	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 45	(1:52) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 38 for 17 yards.	+0.96	+0.99	−0.03	+1.15	+4%	0.9×
Q3 1:23	MIA	1st & 10	MIN 38	(1:23) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIN 29 for 9 yards (26-T.Jackson).	+0.82	+0.82	0.00	+0.79	+3%	1.0×
Q3 0:47	MIA	2nd & 1	MIN 29	(:47) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 12 for 17 yards.	+0.70	+0.65	+0.05	+0.92	+3%	1.1×
Q3 0:15	MIA	1st & 10	MIN 12	(:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.14	+2.49	−1.35	+1.81	+2%	1.1×
Q3 0:11	MIA	Try	MIN 15	47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.	−0.12	−1.07	+0.95	+0.05	0%	1.2×
Q3 0:11	MIN	Kickoff	MIA 35	47-R.Patterson kicks 59 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 6. 4-M.Price to MIN 29 for 23 yards (59-R.McGraw; 42-J.Woodard).	−0.27	−0.13	−0.13	+0.26	−1%	1.2×
Q3 0:05	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 29	(:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 37 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.50	+0.50	−0.01	+0.48	+2%	1.2×
Q4 15:00	MIN	2nd & 2	MIN 37	(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 37 for no gain (94-J.Phillips).	−0.65	−0.64	−0.01	−0.84	−3%	1.2×
Q4 14:18	MIN	3rd & 2	MIN 37	(14:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 43 for 6 yards (3-C.Johnson; 10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.80	+0.81	−0.01	+1.05	+4%	1.2×
Q4 13:39	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 43	(13:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 45 for 2 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader).	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	−0.46	−1%	1.1×
Q4 12:58	MIN	2nd & 8	MIN 45	(12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 47 for 2 yards (20-J.Brooks).	−0.49	−0.49	0.00	−0.60	−2%	1.2×
Q4 12:21	MIN	3rd & 6	MIN 47	(12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).	+1.65	+1.68	−0.03	+2.08	+8%	1.2×
Q4 11:40	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 39	(11:40) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.58	−2%	1.0×
Q4 11:35	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 39	(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIA 35 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	−0.24	−0.24	0.00	−0.33	−1%	1.1×
Q4 10:53	MIN	3rd & 6	MIA 35	(10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 30 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.03	+0.03	+0.01	−0.17	0%	1.1×
Q4 10:08	MIN	4th & 1	MIA 30	(10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).	+1.26	+1.25	+0.01	+1.85	+6%	1.1×
Q4 9:25	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 27	(9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIA 16 for 11 yards (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.60	+0.57	+0.04	+0.64	+3%	0.9×
Q4 8:47	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 16	(8:47) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (90-M.Herring).	−0.68	−0.68	0.00	−1.13	−3%	0.8×
Q4 8:12	MIN	2nd & 13	MIA 19	(8:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to MIA 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Brooks).	−0.01	−0.04	+0.03	−0.04	0%	0.9×
Q4 7:28	MIN	3rd & 8	MIA 14	(7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIA 11 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche). FUMBLES (9-J.Uche), ball out of bounds at MIA 9.	−0.55	−0.58	+0.03	−0.85	−3%	0.9×
Q4 6:43	MIN	4th & 5	MIA 11	(6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	−0.15	−0.51	+0.36	+0.09	+3%	0.9×
Q4 6:41	MIA	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 51 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 14. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 17. 5-J.Wright to MIA 18 for 1 yard (24-J.Ward).	+0.03	0.00	+0.03	−0.54	0%	0.9×
Q4 6:39	MIA	1st & 10	MIA 18	(6:39) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 20 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 61-J.Redmond).	−0.28	−0.28	0.00	−0.44	−2%	0.9×
Q4 5:59	MIA	2nd & 8	MIA 20	(5:59) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Tolbert.	−0.62	−0.62	0.00	−0.72	−4%	0.8×
Q4 5:54	MIA	3rd & 8	MIA 20	(5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Bell (22-H.Smith).	−0.94	−0.94	0.00	−1.06	−3%	0.7×
Q4 5:48	MIA	4th & 8	MIA 20	(5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.	+1.20	+0.80	+0.41	+0.78	+4%	0.6×
Q4 5:41	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 19	(5:41) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 33 for 14 yards (8-J.Brents; 11-D.Trader).	+0.73	+0.69	+0.05	+0.89	+4%	0.7×
Q4 5:02	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 33	(5:02) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 33 for no gain (9-J.Uche; 93-Z.Biggers).	−0.49	−0.55	+0.06	−0.51	−1%	0.6×
Q4 4:22	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 33	(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents).	+1.85	+1.83	+0.02	+1.94	+7%	0.6×
Q4 3:41	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 40	(3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. PENALTY on MIN-78-C.Tiernan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.	−0.51	−0.52	+0.01	−0.58	−1%	0.3×
Q4 3:41	MIN	1st & 15	MIA 45	(3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 21-D.Claiborne right end to MIA 37 for 8 yards (20-J.Brooks; 3-C.Johnson).	+0.29	+0.24	+0.06	+0.31	+2%	0.4×
Q4 3:01	MIN	2nd & 7	MIA 37	(3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 22 yards (20-J.Brooks).	+1.46	+1.35	+0.11	+1.94	+4%	0.3×
Q4 2:17	MIN	1st & 10	MIA 15	(2:17) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 15 - No Play.	−0.50	−0.48	−0.02	−0.71	0%	0.1×
Q4 2:17	MIN	1st & 15	MIA 20	(2:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).	+0.12	+0.09	+0.03	−0.03	0%	0.1×
Q4 2:12	MIN	2nd & 10	MIA 15	(2:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 10 for 5 yards (40-W.Gay).	−0.05	−0.09	+0.03	−0.79	0%	0.1×
Q4 2:07	MIN	3rd & 5	MIA 10	(2:07) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 2 for 8 yards (16-M.Taaffe).	+1.60	+1.54	+0.06	+2.48	+1%	0.1×
Q4 2:00	MIN	1st & 2	MIA 2	(2:00) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 4 for -2 yards.	−0.77	−0.85	+0.08	−0.92	0%	0.0×
Q4 1:18	MIN	2nd & 4	MIA 4	(1:18) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 6 for -2 yards.	−0.96	−1.04	+0.08	−1.34	0%	0.0×
Q4 0:38	MIN	3rd & 6	MIA 6	(:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 7 for -1 yards.	−2.84	−2.21	−0.63	−3.46	0%	0.0×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	T.Hockenson	MIN	13	—	—	+9.9+0.76	+9.9+0.76	+2.3+0.73	+11.2+0.86
	O.Gordon	MIA	11	—	+5.7+0.63	−1.1−0.55	+4.6+0.41	+1.2+0.33	+5.3+0.48
	M.Washington	MIA	7	—	−0.8−0.41	+3.0+0.59	+2.1+0.31	+0.6+0.27	+2.5+0.36
	T.Felton	MIN	1	—	—	+1.0+1.00	+1.0+1.00	+0.3+1.00	+0.5+0.46
	J.Addison	MIN	7	—	−0.6−0.63	+1.5+0.26	+0.9+0.13	+0.1+0.05	+0.4+0.05
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIA
	M.Willis	9	17	0	0	2	855.0	−12.4−0.65	−10.0−0.53	−3.5−0.56

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	K.Murray	27	37	0	0	4	2476.7	−0.7−0.02	+2.9+0.07	−0.1−0.01

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIA
	O.Gordon	9	1	10011.1	+6.6+0.74	+5.7+0.63	+1.6+0.59
	J.Wright	5	0	71.4	−3.6−0.73	−2.3−0.47	−0.7−0.40
	M.Willis	2	0	115.5	+3.0+1.50	+2.2+1.08	+0.8+1.09
	M.Washington	2	0	31.5	−1.1−0.56	−0.8−0.41	−0.3−0.41

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	A.Jones	20	0	944.7	−0.9−0.05	+1.3+0.07	+0.3+0.05
	K.Murray	6	0	162.7	−5.6−0.94	−4.2−0.71	+0.1+0.13
	D.Claiborne	3	0	124.0	−0.5−0.16	−0.4−0.14	−0.2−0.25
	M.Price	1	0	22.0	−0.5−0.49	−0.3−0.33	−0.1−0.33
	J.Addison	1	0	−1−1.0	−0.7−0.74	−0.6−0.63	−0.2−0.63

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIA
	M.Washington	5	5	0	6713.4	+3.6+0.73	+3.0+0.59	+0.9+0.60
	K.Coleman	4	1	0	33.0	−3.2−0.80	−2.7−0.66	−0.9−0.63
	C.Bell	3	0	0	0—	−3.9−1.30	−3.1−1.03	−1.0−1.05
	W.Kacmarek	2	1	0	1515.0	+0.5+0.25	+0.4+0.21	+0.2+0.35
	O.Gordon	2	2	0	00.0	−1.4−0.69	−1.1−0.55	−0.4−0.55
	J.Tolbert	1	0	0	0—	−0.7−0.72	−0.6−0.62	−0.1−0.62

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	T.Hockenson	13	13	0	1199.2	+11.2+0.86	+9.9+0.76	+2.3+0.73
	A.Jones	8	4	0	348.5	−1.3−0.16	−0.7−0.08	−0.2−0.07
	J.Addison	6	4	0	5213.0	+1.1+0.18	+1.5+0.26	+0.3+0.15
	M.Price	2	2	0	63.0	−1.1−0.54	−0.6−0.31	−0.2−0.35
	D.Dallas	1	1	0	1010.0	−0.6−0.57	0.0−0.05	0.0−0.05
	J.Jennings	1	1	0	88.0	−0.1−0.07	0.0−0.05	0.0−0.05
	G.Bartholomew	1	1	0	44.0	+0.1+0.12	0.0+0.05	0.0+0.05
	T.Felton	1	1	0	1414.0	+0.5+0.46	+1.0+1.00	+0.3+1.00