JAX 22, CIN 17 — week 4, 2026

JAX

22 at 17

CIN

Week 4 · 2026 · Final

JAX season | CIN season

BASE CASE

before kickoff

JAX 52%

Win expectancy

from how they played

JAX 96%

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
CIN	80	17	4375.5	+2.1+0.026	+5.5+0.068	+5.7+0.071	−0.2−0.003	+0.1+0.002
JAX	69	22	3234.7	+12.4+0.179	+13.9+0.201	+12.6+0.182	+1.3+0.019	+3.6+0.165
NET	11	−5	1140.8	−10.3−0.153	−8.4−0.133	−6.9−0.111	−1.5−0.022	−3.5−0.163
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is CIN minus JAX.

Game Timeline

JAX at CIN. JAX won by 5. Two panels. Top: CIN's win probability across 163 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; CIN was favored on 16% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at JAX by 10.1 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -18% at play 62, J.Burrow pass short middle intended for… — INTERCEPTED; -21% at play 112, J.Burrow pass short right intended for… — INTERCEPTED; -9% at play 144, J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard — TOUCHDOWN; -26% at play 161, J.Burrow pass short middle to C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards.

Excitement

1.5 bits

#5 of 16 this week

80th percentile since 2006

Tension

0.83

#7 of 16 this week

73rd percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

518 pts

#5 of 16 this week

80th percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

64%

#7 of 16 this week

65th percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#8 of 16 this week

53rd percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

42%

#10 of 16 this week

37th percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 2:00	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 45	(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).	−5.16	−5.42	+0.26	−6.16	−18%	1.4×
2	Q4 14:16	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 10	(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).	−4.08	−4.72	+0.64	−5.03	−21%	1.3×
3	Q4 0:30	JAX	2nd & 11	JAX 11	(:30) 16-T.Lawrence kneels to JAX 10 for -1 yards.	+3.05	+2.38	+0.67	0.00	0%	0.0×
4	Q3 1:58	CIN	3rd & 16	CIN 20	(1:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).	+2.88	+2.94	−0.06	+3.64	+14%	1.0×
5	Q4 6:42	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 25	(6:42) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.63	+3.47	−0.83	+3.03	+5%	0.5×
6	Q1 6:25	JAX	3rd & 18	JAX 11	(6:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+2.60	+2.57	+0.03	+3.21	+9%	1.4×
7	Q3 8:48	CIN	3rd & 7	JAX 15	(8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.	+2.60	+3.16	−0.55	+2.99	+8%	1.2×
8	Q2 5:49	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 32	(5:49) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at CIN 3 for 29 yards (42-O.Burks).	+1.95	+1.90	+0.06	+2.26	+7%	1.4×
9	Q1 12:27	JAX	4th & 10	JAX 20	(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.	+1.95	+1.29	+0.66	+1.92	+6%	1.4×
10	Q2 13:36	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 39	(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 22 for 17 yards (4-J.Jones) [23-F.Oluokun].	+1.87	+1.94	−0.06	+2.58	+6%	1.4×
11	Q4 2:34	JAX	3rd & 8	JAX 30	(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+1.75	+1.75	0.00	+1.25	+10%	0.7×
12	Q1 1:24	CIN	3rd & 7	CIN 26	(1:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30 yards (30-C.Brown). PENALTY on JAX-91-A.Armstead, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.	+1.72	+1.75	−0.03	+2.24	+6%	1.4×
13	Q2 12:11	CIN	2nd & 21	JAX 33	(12:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 29 for 4 yards (4-J.Jones). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-4-J.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 29.	+1.66	+1.66	0.00	+2.20	+6%	1.4×
14	Q1 11:00	CIN	2nd & 15	CIN 19	(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 16 yards (29-E.Murray).	+1.59	+1.57	+0.03	+2.12	+5%	1.4×
15	Q3 3:05	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 36	(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.56	+1.11	+0.45	+2.07	+9%	1.3×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 2:00	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 45	(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).	−5.16	−5.42	+0.26	−6.16	−18%	1.4×
2	Q4 14:16	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 10	(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).	−4.08	−4.72	+0.64	−5.03	−21%	1.3×
3	Q1 6:25	JAX	3rd & 18	JAX 11	(6:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+2.60	+2.57	+0.03	+3.21	+9%	1.4×
4	Q3 8:48	CIN	3rd & 7	JAX 15	(8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.	+2.60	+3.16	−0.55	+2.99	+8%	1.2×
5	Q3 1:58	CIN	3rd & 16	CIN 20	(1:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).	+2.88	+2.94	−0.06	+3.64	+14%	1.0×
6	Q1 12:27	JAX	4th & 10	JAX 20	(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.	+1.95	+1.29	+0.66	+1.92	+6%	1.4×
7	Q2 5:49	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 32	(5:49) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at CIN 3 for 29 yards (42-O.Burks).	+1.95	+1.90	+0.06	+2.26	+7%	1.4×
8	Q2 13:36	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 39	(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 22 for 17 yards (4-J.Jones) [23-F.Oluokun].	+1.87	+1.94	−0.06	+2.58	+6%	1.4×
9	Q1 1:24	CIN	3rd & 7	CIN 26	(1:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30 yards (30-C.Brown). PENALTY on JAX-91-A.Armstead, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.	+1.72	+1.75	−0.03	+2.24	+6%	1.4×
10	Q2 12:11	CIN	2nd & 21	JAX 33	(12:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 29 for 4 yards (4-J.Jones). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-4-J.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 29.	+1.66	+1.66	0.00	+2.20	+6%	1.4×
11	Q1 11:00	CIN	2nd & 15	CIN 19	(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 16 yards (29-E.Murray).	+1.59	+1.57	+0.03	+2.12	+5%	1.4×
12	Q1 5:09	JAX	2nd & 7	JAX 37	(5:09) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to CIN 41 for 22 yards (49-B.Carter).	+1.50	+1.54	−0.04	+2.01	+5%	1.4×
13	Q3 3:05	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 36	(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.56	+1.11	+0.45	+2.07	+9%	1.3×
14	Q1 2:23	JAX	4th & 6	CIN 37	(2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.31	+1.23	+0.08	+2.56	+6%	1.4×
15	Q2 12:55	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 22	(12:55) 9-J.Burrow sacked at JAX 33 for -11 yards (92-D.Striggow).	−1.31	−1.25	−0.06	−1.80	−4%	1.4×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q4 0:56	CIN	4th & 10	JAX 21	(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).	−0.57	−0.42	−0.15	−2.30	−26%	0.9×
2	Q4 14:16	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 10	(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).	−4.08	−4.72	+0.64	−5.03	−21%	1.3×
3	Q2 2:00	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 45	(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).	−5.16	−5.42	+0.26	−6.16	−18%	1.4×
4	Q3 1:58	CIN	3rd & 16	CIN 20	(1:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).	+2.88	+2.94	−0.06	+3.64	+14%	1.0×
5	Q4 1:44	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 17	(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.	+1.51	+1.53	−0.02	+1.45	+10%	0.6×
6	Q4 2:34	JAX	3rd & 8	JAX 30	(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+1.75	+1.75	0.00	+1.25	+10%	0.7×
7	Q3 3:05	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 36	(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.56	+1.11	+0.45	+2.07	+9%	1.3×
8	Q4 3:33	CIN	1st & 1	JAX 1	(3:33) (No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+0.09	+0.79	−0.70	+0.60	−9%	0.7×
9	Q1 6:25	JAX	3rd & 18	JAX 11	(6:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+2.60	+2.57	+0.03	+3.21	+9%	1.4×
10	Q3 8:48	CIN	3rd & 7	JAX 15	(8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.	+2.60	+3.16	−0.55	+2.99	+8%	1.2×
11	Q4 1:38	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 46	(1:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards [41-J.Hines-Allen].	+0.96	+1.01	−0.04	+0.84	+8%	0.9×
12	Q4 11:33	CIN	2nd & 10	CIN 20	(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 38 for 18 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).	+1.47	+1.49	−0.03	+1.64	+8%	1.0×
13	Q4 15:00	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 36	(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 10 for 26 yards (6-A.Johnson; 25-R.Lane).	+1.43	+1.44	−0.01	+1.39	+7%	1.3×
14	Q3 0:05	CIN	3rd & 4	JAX 45	(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 36 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane) [51-V.Miller].	+1.34	+1.37	−0.03	+1.43	+7%	1.2×
15	Q4 1:32	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 36	(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).	+0.74	+0.73	+0.01	+1.01	+7%	1.0×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 163 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	JAX	Kickoff	CIN 35	2-E.McPherson kicks 61 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 4. 20-A.Abdullah pushed ob at CIN 49 for 47 yards (2-E.McPherson). PENALTY on JAX-80-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.	−0.21	−0.19	−0.02	−0.40	−1%	1.4×
Q1 14:54	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 20	(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe]. PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20 - No Play.	−0.69	−0.73	+0.04	−1.03	−2%	1.4×
Q1 14:49	JAX	1st & 20	JAX 10	(14:49) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 25 for 15 yards (37-P.Jules).	+0.96	+0.76	+0.20	+1.20	+2%	1.4×
Q1 14:08	JAX	2nd & 5	JAX 25	(14:08) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 21 for -4 yards (44-D.Knight).	−0.81	−1.04	+0.23	−1.44	−3%	1.4×
Q1 13:21	JAX	3rd & 9	JAX 21	(13:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 21 - No Play.	−0.44	−0.51	+0.07	−0.62	−1%	1.4×
Q1 13:06	JAX	3rd & 14	JAX 16	(13:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 20 for 4 yards (27-J.Battle).	−0.39	−0.53	+0.14	−0.67	−1%	1.4×
Q1 12:27	JAX	4th & 10	JAX 20	(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.	+1.95	+1.29	+0.66	+1.92	+6%	1.4×
Q1 12:16	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 10	(12:16) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 24 for 14 yards (29-E.Murray) [44-T.Walker].	+0.81	+0.73	+0.07	+0.86	+3%	1.4×
Q1 11:41	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 24	(11:41) 30-C.Brown left tackle to CIN 19 for -5 yards (6-A.Johnson).	−0.91	−0.97	+0.07	−1.27	−3%	1.4×
Q1 11:00	CIN	2nd & 15	CIN 19	(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 16 yards (29-E.Murray).	+1.59	+1.57	+0.03	+2.12	+5%	1.4×
Q1 10:16	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 35	(10:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to CIN 40 for 5 yards (4-J.Jones) [52-D.Hamilton].	+0.06	+0.05	+0.01	+0.08	0%	1.4×
Q1 9:35	CIN	2nd & 5	CIN 40	(9:35) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 42 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 51-V.Miller).	−0.32	−0.34	+0.02	−0.50	−1%	1.4×
Q1 8:52	CIN	3rd & 3	CIN 42	(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 44 for 2 yards (12-T.Hunter).	−0.80	−0.84	+0.04	−1.07	−3%	1.4×
Q1 8:04	CIN	4th & 1	CIN 44	(8:04) (Run formation) PENALTY on CIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 44 - No Play.	−0.66	−0.69	+0.02	−0.89	−2%	1.4×
Q1 7:50	CIN	4th & 6	CIN 39	(7:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.	−0.14	−0.20	+0.06	+0.03	0%	1.4×
Q1 7:43	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 19	(7:43) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 18 for -1 yards (49-B.Carter, 93-J.Allen).	−0.52	−0.57	+0.05	−0.85	−2%	1.4×
Q1 7:06	JAX	2nd & 11	JAX 18	(7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 11 for -7 yards (99-M.Murphy).	−1.15	−1.21	+0.07	−1.32	−4%	1.4×
Q1 6:25	JAX	3rd & 18	JAX 11	(6:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+2.60	+2.57	+0.03	+3.21	+9%	1.4×
Q1 5:41	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 34	(5:41) 11-P.Washington left end pushed ob at JAX 37 for 3 yards (20-T.Davis).	−0.16	−0.18	+0.02	−0.24	−1%	1.4×
Q1 5:09	JAX	2nd & 7	JAX 37	(5:09) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to CIN 41 for 22 yards (49-B.Carter).	+1.50	+1.54	−0.04	+2.01	+5%	1.4×
Q1 4:28	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 41	(4:28) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to CIN 36 for 5 yards (98-T.Slaton; 90-K.Jenkins).	+0.06	+0.08	−0.03	0.00	0%	1.4×
Q1 3:44	JAX	2nd & 5	CIN 36	(3:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 33-B.Tuten. PENALTY on JAX-87-N.Boerkircher, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 36 - No Play.	−1.06	−1.08	+0.02	−1.04	−3%	1.4×
Q1 3:40	JAX	2nd & 15	CIN 46	(3:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Boerkircher.	−0.69	−0.69	0.00	−1.02	−2%	1.4×
Q1 3:36	JAX	3rd & 15	CIN 46	(3:36) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to CIN 35 for 11 yards (49-B.Carter). PENALTY on JAX, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46 - No Play.	−0.25	−0.24	−0.01	−0.18	−1%	1.4×
Q1 3:09	JAX	3rd & 20	JAX 49	(3:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CIN 37 for 14 yards (27-J.Battle).	+0.02	+0.09	−0.07	−0.50	0%	1.4×
Q1 2:23	JAX	4th & 6	CIN 37	(2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.31	+1.23	+0.08	+2.56	+6%	1.4×
Q1 2:18	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 64 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 1. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 23 for 22 yards (35-J.Mcleod).	+0.26	−0.24	+0.50	−0.28	+1%	1.4×
Q1 2:13	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 23	(2:13) 30-C.Brown left guard to CIN 26 for 3 yards (2-J.Lewis).	−0.24	−0.18	−0.06	−0.23	−1%	1.4×
Q1 1:29	CIN	2nd & 7	CIN 26	(1:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins.	−0.61	−0.60	−0.01	−0.79	−2%	1.4×
Q1 1:24	CIN	3rd & 7	CIN 26	(1:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30 yards (30-C.Brown). PENALTY on JAX-91-A.Armstead, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.	+1.72	+1.75	−0.03	+2.24	+6%	1.4×
Q1 1:10	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 41	(1:10) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at CIN 47 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter).	+0.13	+0.19	−0.06	+0.28	0%	1.4×
Q1 0:31	CIN	2nd & 4	CIN 47	(:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 43 for 10 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).	+0.65	+0.71	−0.06	+0.60	+2%	1.4×
Q2 15:00	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 43	(15:00) 30-C.Brown right tackle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (44-T.Walker).	−0.40	−0.35	−0.05	−0.49	−1%	1.4×
Q2 14:17	CIN	2nd & 9	JAX 42	(14:17) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to JAX 39 for 3 yards (91-A.Armstead).	−0.41	−0.35	−0.06	−0.51	−1%	1.4×
Q2 13:36	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 39	(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 22 for 17 yards (4-J.Jones) [23-F.Oluokun].	+1.87	+1.94	−0.06	+2.58	+6%	1.4×
Q2 12:55	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 22	(12:55) 9-J.Burrow sacked at JAX 33 for -11 yards (92-D.Striggow).	−1.31	−1.25	−0.06	−1.80	−4%	1.4×
Q2 12:11	CIN	2nd & 21	JAX 33	(12:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 29 for 4 yards (4-J.Jones). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-4-J.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 29.	+1.66	+1.66	0.00	+2.20	+6%	1.4×
Q2 11:45	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 14	(11:45) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 12.	−0.68	−0.65	−0.03	−1.03	−2%	1.4×
Q2 11:40	CIN	1st & 18	JAX 22	(11:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 13 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis; 51-V.Miller).	+0.37	+0.38	−0.01	+0.57	+1%	1.4×
Q2 11:00	CIN	2nd & 9	JAX 13	(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 82-M.Tinsley (12-T.Hunter).	−0.52	−0.51	−0.01	−0.79	−2%	1.4×
Q2 10:54	CIN	3rd & 9	JAX 13	(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end to JAX 10 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).	−0.62	−0.60	−0.02	−0.81	−2%	1.4×
Q2 10:07	CIN	4th & 6	JAX 10	(10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.	−0.35	−0.46	+0.10	+0.12	0%	1.4×
Q2 10:03	JAX	Kickoff	CIN 35	2-E.McPherson kicks 65 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 0. 20-A.Abdullah to JAX 27 for 27 yards (52-C.Johnson; 87-T.Hudson).	+0.17	+0.24	−0.08	+0.08	+1%	1.4×
Q2 9:58	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 27	(9:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to JAX 39 for 12 yards (37-P.Jules).	+0.67	+0.66	+0.01	+0.65	+2%	1.4×
Q2 9:21	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 39	(9:21) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 41 for 2 yards (37-P.Jules).	−0.24	−0.26	+0.02	−0.36	−1%	1.4×
Q2 8:38	JAX	2nd & 8	JAX 41	(8:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 87-N.Boerkircher to CIN 44 for 15 yards (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks).	+1.20	+1.22	−0.02	+1.41	+4%	1.4×
Q2 7:51	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 44	(7:51) 33-B.Tuten right guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-76-E.Cleveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 39.	−0.50	−0.51	+0.01	−0.56	−2%	1.4×
Q2 7:42	JAX	1st & 15	CIN 49	(7:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas pushed ob at CIN 39 for 10 yards (0-D.Turner).	+0.58	+0.61	−0.03	+0.65	+2%	1.4×
Q2 7:09	JAX	2nd & 5	CIN 39	(7:09) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez right tackle to CIN 38 for 1 yard (27-J.Battle).	−0.54	−0.51	−0.02	−0.44	−2%	1.4×
Q2 6:26	JAX	3rd & 4	CIN 38	(6:26) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez up the middle to CIN 32 for 6 yards (53-B.Mafe; 49-B.Carter).	+1.11	+1.15	−0.04	+1.10	+4%	1.4×
Q2 5:49	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 32	(5:49) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at CIN 3 for 29 yards (42-O.Burks).	+1.95	+1.90	+0.06	+2.26	+7%	1.4×
Q2 5:10	JAX	1st & 3	CIN 3	(5:10) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.	−1.08	−1.02	−0.06	−1.44	−4%	1.3×
Q2 5:05	JAX	1st & 13	CIN 13	(5:05) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez up the middle to CIN 10 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks).	−0.09	−0.09	−0.01	−0.06	0%	1.4×
Q2 4:28	JAX	2nd & 10	CIN 10	(4:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (49-B.Carter) [97-D.Lawrence].	−0.55	−0.55	0.00	−0.75	−2%	1.4×
Q2 4:23	JAX	3rd & 10	CIN 10	(4:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers (38-D.Ivey) [93-J.Allen].	−0.87	−0.87	0.00	−0.91	−3%	1.4×
Q2 4:19	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 10	(4:19) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	−0.56	−0.47	−0.09	+0.12	−1%	1.4×
Q2 4:16	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 59 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 6. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 29 yards (80-Q.Morris).	+0.09	+0.56	−0.47	+0.54	0%	1.4×
Q2 4:10	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 35	(4:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 41 for 6 yards (29-E.Murray; 99-R.Orhorhoro).	+0.19	+0.15	+0.03	+0.10	+1%	1.4×
Q2 3:27	CIN	2nd & 4	CIN 41	(3:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 49 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter).	+0.70	+0.66	+0.04	+0.89	+3%	1.4×
Q2 2:46	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 49	(2:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 81-D.Meyers ran ob at JAX 46 for 3 yards (12-T.Hunter; 2-J.Lewis).	−0.14	−0.19	+0.05	−0.15	−1%	1.4×
Q2 2:11	CIN	2nd & 7	JAX 46	(2:11) 30-C.Brown left guard to JAX 45 for 1 yard (6-A.Johnson).	−0.57	−0.59	+0.02	−0.33	−2%	1.4×
Q2 2:00	CIN	3rd & 6	JAX 45	(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).	−5.16	−5.42	+0.26	−6.16	−18%	1.4×
Q2 1:49	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 18	(1:49) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to CIN 9 for 9 yards (49-B.Carter; 22-R.Yeast).	+0.78	+0.75	+0.04	+0.48	+3%	1.2×
Q2 1:42	JAX	2nd & 1	CIN 9	(1:42) 33-B.Tuten left end pushed ob at CIN 7 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight; 0-D.Turner). PENALTY on CIN-99-M.Murphy, Face Mask, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 7.	+0.40	+0.37	+0.03	+0.85	+1%	1.1×
Q2 1:36	JAX	1st & 3	CIN 3	(1:36) 33-B.Tuten left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.	−1.08	−1.02	−0.05	−1.36	−3%	1.1×
Q2 1:33	JAX	1st & 13	CIN 13	(1:33) 33-B.Tuten left guard to CIN 7 for 6 yards (38-D.Ivey; 44-D.Knight).	+0.23	+0.20	+0.03	−0.48	+1%	1.2×
Q2 1:27	JAX	2nd & 7	CIN 7	(1:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.44	+2.73	−1.29	+3.06	+5%	1.1×
Q2 1:23	JAX	Try	CIN 15	39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	−0.02	−0.78	+0.75	+0.07	+1%	1.0×
Q2 1:23	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 2. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 40 for 38 yards (6-A.Johnson; 5-L.Allen). PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 30.	−0.59	−0.45	−0.13	−0.21	−2%	1.0×
Q2 1:15	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 20	(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis).	+0.34	+0.33	+0.01	−0.06	+1%	0.9×
Q2 0:53	CIN	2nd & 3	CIN 27	(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 41 for 14 yards (25-R.Lane).	+0.81	+0.81	0.00	+0.34	+3%	0.9×
Q2 0:30	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 41	(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to 50 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 25-R.Lane). PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 41 - No Play.	−0.73	−0.74	+0.01	−0.58	−3%	1.0×
Q2 0:22	CIN	1st & 20	CIN 31	(:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 39 for 8 yards (4-J.Jones).	+0.09	+0.10	−0.01	+0.11	+1%	0.9×
Q2 0:16	CIN	2nd & 12	CIN 39	(:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones).	−0.61	−0.61	0.00	−0.14	−1%	1.0×
Q2 0:09	CIN	3rd & 12	CIN 39	(:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 46 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).	−0.52	−0.51	−0.01	−0.02	−1%	0.9×
Q2 0:04	CIN	4th & 5	CIN 46	(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).	+1.30	+1.09	+0.21	−0.11	+4%	0.9×
Q3 15:00	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 60 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 5. 81-D.Meyers pushed ob at CIN 33 for 28 yards (80-Q.Morris).	+0.07	+0.27	−0.19	+0.53	0%	1.0×
Q3 14:55	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 33	(14:55) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 30 for -3 yards (91-A.Armstead).	−0.74	−0.73	−0.02	−1.09	−3%	1.0×
Q3 14:13	CIN	2nd & 13	CIN 30	(14:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 46 for 16 yards (4-J.Jones).	+1.46	+1.50	−0.04	+1.98	+5%	0.9×
Q3 13:40	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 46	(13:40) 30-C.Brown right end to CIN 49 for 3 yards (99-R.Orhorhoro).	−0.16	−0.12	−0.03	−0.29	−1%	1.1×
Q3 13:03	CIN	2nd & 7	CIN 49	(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 46 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).	+0.02	+0.06	−0.04	+0.01	0%	1.1×
Q3 12:23	CIN	3rd & 2	JAX 46	(12:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end to JAX 44 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (23-F.Oluokun), ball out of bounds at JAX 44.	+0.76	+0.78	−0.02	+0.75	+2%	1.1×
Q3 11:45	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 44	(11:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 34-S.Perine.	−0.45	−0.44	0.00	−0.52	−2%	1.1×
Q3 11:39	CIN	2nd & 10	JAX 44	(11:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at JAX 30 for 14 yards (29-E.Murray).	+1.31	+1.34	−0.03	+1.35	+5%	1.1×
Q3 11:01	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 30	(11:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to JAX 23 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).	+0.49	+0.48	+0.02	+0.48	+2%	1.2×
Q3 10:17	CIN	2nd & 3	JAX 23	(10:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 18 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane).	+0.31	+0.27	+0.03	+0.34	+1%	1.2×
Q3 9:38	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 18	(9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones) [44-T.Walker].	−0.37	−0.37	0.00	−0.46	−1%	1.2×
Q3 9:34	CIN	2nd & 10	JAX 18	(9:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 83-E.All [44-T.Walker]. PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play.	+0.52	+0.49	+0.02	+0.52	+2%	1.2×
Q3 9:31	CIN	2nd & 5	JAX 13	(9:31) 30-C.Brown right end to JAX 15 for -2 yards (51-V.Miller).	−0.66	−0.68	+0.02	−1.07	−3%	1.3×
Q3 8:48	CIN	3rd & 7	JAX 15	(8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.	+2.60	+3.16	−0.55	+2.99	+8%	1.2×
Q3 8:44	CIN	Try	JAX 15	2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.	+0.11	−0.51	+0.62	+0.07	0%	1.3×
Q3 8:44	JAX	Kickoff	CIN 35	2-E.McPherson kicks 62 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 3. 19-J.Cameron to JAX 25 for 22 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).	−0.16	+0.18	−0.34	0.00	−1%	1.3×
Q3 8:38	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 25	(8:38) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 20 for -5 yards (53-B.Mafe).	−1.00	−0.97	−0.03	−1.35	−5%	1.3×
Q3 7:52	JAX	2nd & 15	JAX 20	(7:52) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 33-B.Tuten pushed ob at JAX 29 for 9 yards (49-B.Carter).	+0.27	+0.30	−0.03	+0.06	+1%	1.4×
Q3 7:10	JAX	3rd & 6	JAX 29	(7:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 36 for 7 yards (44-D.Knight) [93-J.Allen].	+1.22	+1.24	−0.02	+1.60	+6%	1.4×
Q3 6:28	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 36	(6:28) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 40 for 4 yards (99-M.Murphy; 98-T.Slaton).	−0.10	−0.08	−0.01	−0.14	0%	1.3×
Q3 5:47	JAX	2nd & 6	JAX 40	(5:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron to CIN 47 for 13 yards (38-D.Ivey; 37-P.Jules).	+0.95	+0.98	−0.02	+1.41	+5%	1.3×
Q3 5:03	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 47	(5:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CIN 36 for 11 yards (23-D.Hill). FUMBLES (23-D.Hill), touched at CIN 29, ball out of bounds at CIN 29.	+0.61	+0.63	−0.02	+0.79	+2%	1.2×
Q3 4:35	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 36	(4:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at CIN 39 for -3 yards (90-K.Jenkins).	−0.76	−0.78	+0.02	−1.19	−3%	1.2×
Q3 3:54	JAX	2nd & 13	CIN 39	(3:54) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to CIN 36 for 3 yards (49-B.Carter; 44-D.Knight).	−0.31	−0.32	+0.01	−0.19	−1%	1.2×
Q3 3:11	JAX	3rd & 10	CIN 36	(3:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 11-P.Washington (0-D.Turner).	−1.07	−1.07	0.00	−0.92	−5%	1.3×
Q3 3:05	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 36	(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.	+1.56	+1.11	+0.45	+2.07	+9%	1.3×
Q3 3:00	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 2. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 26 for 24 yards (35-J.Mcleod).	−0.03	−0.24	+0.21	+0.02	0%	1.2×
Q3 2:55	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 26	(2:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-R.Lane).	−0.47	−0.46	0.00	−0.55	−2%	1.2×
Q3 2:51	CIN	2nd & 10	CIN 26	(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 30 for 4 yards (92-D.Striggow).	−0.20	−0.18	−0.02	−0.31	−1%	1.1×
Q3 2:22	CIN	3rd & 6	CIN 30	(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right tackle to CIN 35 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun). PENALTY on CIN-75-O.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 30 - No Play.	−1.01	−0.99	−0.01	−1.41	−5%	1.1×
Q3 1:58	CIN	3rd & 16	CIN 20	(1:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).	+2.88	+2.94	−0.06	+3.64	+14%	1.0×
Q3 1:26	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 49	(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to JAX 49 for 2 yards (51-V.Miller; 44-T.Walker).	−0.29	−0.23	−0.05	−0.55	−2%	1.3×
Q3 0:44	CIN	2nd & 8	JAX 49	(:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at JAX 45 for 4 yards (51-V.Miller).	−0.25	−0.19	−0.06	−0.23	−2%	1.2×
Q3 0:05	CIN	3rd & 4	JAX 45	(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 36 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane) [51-V.Miller].	+1.34	+1.37	−0.03	+1.43	+7%	1.2×
Q4 15:00	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 36	(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 10 for 26 yards (6-A.Johnson; 25-R.Lane).	+1.43	+1.44	−0.01	+1.39	+7%	1.3×
Q4 14:16	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 10	(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).	−4.08	−4.72	+0.64	−5.03	−21%	1.3×
Q4 14:10	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 15	(14:10) 33-B.Tuten up the middle pushed ob at JAX 35 for 20 yards (23-D.Hill).	+1.03	+1.04	−0.01	+1.22	+5%	1.1×
Q4 13:33	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 35	(13:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 19-J.Cameron. PENALTY on CIN-0-D.Turner, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at JAX 35 - No Play.	+1.00	+1.04	−0.03	+1.38	+3%	1.0×
Q4 13:28	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 46	(13:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 85-B.Strange.	−0.46	−0.46	0.00	−0.53	−2%	0.9×
Q4 13:24	JAX	2nd & 10	CIN 46	(13:24) 24-C.Rodriguez left tackle to CIN 44 for 2 yards (49-B.Carter; 97-D.Lawrence).	−0.54	−0.55	+0.01	−0.80	−2%	0.9×
Q4 12:41	JAX	3rd & 8	CIN 44	(12:41) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez left guard to CIN 46 for -2 yards (53-B.Mafe).	−1.47	−1.50	+0.03	−1.65	−6%	1.0×
Q4 11:53	JAX	4th & 10	CIN 46	(11:53) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on CIN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46 - No Play.	+0.49	+0.50	−0.01	+0.45	+2%	1.1×
Q4 11:47	JAX	4th & 5	CIN 41	(11:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.	−0.32	−1.09	+0.78	−1.05	+1%	1.1×
Q4 11:38	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 20	(11:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins.	−0.47	−0.47	0.00	−0.51	−2%	1.0×
Q4 11:33	CIN	2nd & 10	CIN 20	(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 38 for 18 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).	+1.47	+1.49	−0.03	+1.64	+8%	1.0×
Q4 10:53	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 38	(10:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle.	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.45	−2%	1.1×
Q4 10:49	CIN	2nd & 10	CIN 38	(10:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones).	−0.61	−0.61	0.00	−0.78	−3%	1.1×
Q4 10:45	CIN	3rd & 10	CIN 38	(10:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley (12-T.Hunter) [47-D.Gardeck].	−1.11	−1.11	0.00	−1.36	−5%	1.0×
Q4 10:39	CIN	4th & 10	CIN 38	(10:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 24 for 3 yards (46-W.Wagner).	+0.61	−0.10	+0.71	−0.20	+3%	0.9×
Q4 10:29	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 24	(10:29) 33-B.Tuten left guard to JAX 24 for no gain (93-J.Allen).	−0.48	−0.51	+0.03	−0.46	−2%	1.0×
Q4 9:50	JAX	2nd & 10	JAX 24	(9:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to JAX 33 for 9 yards (20-T.Davis).	+0.57	+0.53	+0.03	+0.71	+3%	1.0×
Q4 9:06	JAX	3rd & 1	JAX 33	(9:06) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 35 for 2 yards (49-B.Carter).	+0.50	+0.46	+0.04	+0.36	+3%	0.9×
Q4 8:26	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 35	(8:26) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 38 for 3 yards (44-D.Knight). PENALTY on CIN-53-B.Mafe, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 38.	+0.96	+0.97	−0.01	+1.25	+4%	0.8×
Q4 8:05	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 47	(8:05) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to CIN 41 for 6 yards (49-B.Carter; 93-J.Allen).	+0.21	+0.19	+0.03	+0.41	+1%	0.7×
Q4 7:25	JAX	2nd & 4	CIN 41	(7:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to CIN 25 for 16 yards (38-D.Ivey).	+1.08	+1.05	+0.03	+1.11	+3%	0.7×
Q4 6:42	JAX	1st & 10	CIN 25	(6:42) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.63	+3.47	−0.83	+3.03	+5%	0.5×
Q4 6:35	JAX	Try	CIN 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-Bri.Thomas is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.	−0.66	−1.76	+1.10	−0.95	0%	0.3×
Q4 6:35	CIN	Kickoff	JAX 35	39-C.Little kicks 66 yards from JAX 35 to CIN -1. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 29 for 30 yards (50-B.Combs).	+0.85	+0.69	+0.17	+0.31	+2%	0.3×
Q4 6:31	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 29	(6:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CIN 31 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun) [91-A.Armstead]. PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29 - No Play.	−0.76	−0.74	−0.02	−1.04	−2%	0.4×
Q4 6:13	CIN	1st & 20	CIN 19	(6:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to CIN 18 for -1 yards (4-J.Jones).	−0.55	−0.52	−0.03	−0.70	−1%	0.3×
Q4 5:47	CIN	2nd & 21	CIN 18	(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at CIN 37 for 19 yards. CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play.	+1.07	+1.13	−0.07	+1.56	+2%	0.3×
Q4 5:10	CIN	3rd & 2	CIN 37	(5:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 38 for 1 yard (51-V.Miller). PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 38.	+1.32	+1.38	−0.06	+1.49	+3%	0.4×
Q4 4:51	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 47	(4:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 30 for 17 yards (6-A.Johnson). ** Injury Update: CIN-5-T.Higgins has returned to the game.	+0.87	+0.94	−0.08	+1.03	+3%	0.5×
Q4 4:23	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 30	(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at JAX 23 for 7 yards (25-R.Lane).	+0.40	+0.41	−0.01	+0.42	+1%	0.6×
Q4 4:17	CIN	2nd & 3	JAX 23	(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at JAX 12 for 11 yards. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.	+0.55	+0.52	+0.03	+0.69	+2%	0.6×
Q4 4:13	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 12	(4:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to JAX 10 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun).	−0.27	−0.25	−0.03	−0.45	−1%	0.7×
Q4 3:51	CIN	2nd & 8	JAX 10	(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 82-M.Tinsley to JAX 1 for 9 yards (4-J.Jones).	+1.32	+1.30	+0.02	+1.96	+5%	0.6×
Q4 3:33	CIN	1st & 1	JAX 1	(3:33) (No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+0.09	+0.79	−0.70	+0.60	−9%	0.7×
Q4 3:28	CIN	Try	JAX 15	2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.	−0.15	−0.68	+0.53	+0.07	+1%	0.5×
Q4 3:28	JAX	Kickoff	CIN 35	2-E.McPherson kicks 60 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 5. 19-J.Cameron to JAX 28 for 23 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).	−0.93	−0.89	−0.04	+0.12	−5%	0.5×
Q4 3:24	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 28	(3:24) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 26 for -2 yards (53-B.Mafe, 27-J.Battle).	−0.75	−0.83	+0.08	−0.54	−2%	0.7×
Q4 2:42	JAX	2nd & 12	JAX 26	(2:42) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 30 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter).	−0.22	−0.24	+0.01	−0.02	0%	0.7×
Q4 2:34	JAX	3rd & 8	JAX 30	(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (22-R.Yeast).	+1.75	+1.75	0.00	+1.25	+10%	0.7×
Q4 2:28	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 45	(2:28) 33-B.Tuten right guard to JAX 45 for no gain (53-B.Mafe; 97-D.Lawrence).	−0.47	−0.48	+0.01	−0.85	−1%	0.4×
Q4 2:23	JAX	2nd & 10	JAX 45	(2:23) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 45 for 0 yards (97-D.Lawrence).	−0.70	−0.75	+0.05	−0.37	0%	0.4×
Q4 2:00	JAX	3rd & 10	JAX 45	(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to CIN 16 for 39 yards (23-D.Hill). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at CIN 48 for 7 yards (0-D.Turner).	−0.46	−0.46	−0.01	−0.40	−2%	0.4×
Q4 1:56	JAX	4th & 3	CIN 48	(1:56) (Run formation) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 48 - No Play.	−0.55	−0.56	+0.01	−0.21	−3%	0.5×
Q4 1:56	JAX	4th & 8	JAX 47	(1:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).	+1.18	+1.20	−0.02	−0.27	−1%	0.6×
Q4 1:44	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 17	(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.	+1.51	+1.53	−0.02	+1.45	+10%	0.6×
Q4 1:38	CIN	1st & 10	CIN 46	(1:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards [41-J.Hines-Allen].	+0.96	+1.01	−0.04	+0.84	+8%	0.9×
Q4 1:32	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 36	(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).	+0.74	+0.73	+0.01	+1.01	+7%	1.0×
Q4 1:08	CIN	1st & 10	JAX 21	(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Meyers.	−0.40	−0.40	0.00	−0.36	−4%	1.1×
Q4 1:05	CIN	2nd & 10	JAX 21	(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki.	−0.50	−0.50	0.00	−0.40	−5%	1.1×
Q4 1:01	CIN	3rd & 10	JAX 21	(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley [41-J.Hines-Allen].	−0.74	−0.74	0.00	−0.87	−7%	1.0×
Q4 0:56	CIN	4th & 10	JAX 21	(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).	−0.57	−0.42	−0.15	−2.30	−26%	0.9×
Q4 0:50	JAX	1st & 10	JAX 12	(:50) 16-T.Lawrence kneels to JAX 11 for -1 yards.	−0.62	−0.67	+0.05	0.00	0%	0.0×
Q4 0:30	JAX	2nd & 11	JAX 11	(:30) 16-T.Lawrence kneels to JAX 10 for -1 yards.	+3.05	+2.38	+0.67	0.00	0%	0.0×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	T.Lawrence	JAX	30	+8.1+0.30	+2.9+0.98	—	+11.0+0.37	+3.1+0.33	+10.6+0.35
	J.Burrow	CIN	59	+9.2+0.16	+0.2+0.07	—	+9.4+0.16	+1.7+0.10	+7.9+0.13
	T.Higgins	CIN	16	—	—	+6.7+0.42	+6.7+0.42	+1.6+0.34	+7.0+0.43
	B.Strange	JAX	8	—	—	+6.1+0.76	+6.1+0.76	+1.9+0.80	+6.0+0.74
	J.Chase	CIN	3	—	—	+3.7+1.22	+3.7+1.22	+1.5+1.22	+5.1+1.69
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	T.Lawrence	18	23	1	0	4	2279.9	+10.2+0.38	+8.1+0.30	+2.9+0.33

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	J.Burrow	39	54	1	2	2	4287.9	+7.4+0.13	+9.2+0.16	+1.7+0.10

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	B.Tuten	17	0	734.3	−0.5−0.03	+0.5+0.03	+0.2+0.03
	C.Rodriguez	6	1	355.8	+1.2+0.20	+1.1+0.18	0.0+0.02
	T.Lawrence	3	0	00.0	+0.4+0.12	+2.9+0.98	+0.1+0.50
	P.Washington	1	0	33.0	−0.2−0.24	−0.2−0.16	−0.1−0.16

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	C.Brown	9	0	101.1	−2.6−0.29	−1.8−0.19	−1.0−0.33
	S.Perine	3	0	72.3	−2.1−0.70	−1.4−0.46	−0.5−0.47
	J.Burrow	3	1	62.0	+0.5+0.18	+0.2+0.07	0.00.00

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	B.Strange	8	7	0	9513.6	+6.0+0.74	+6.1+0.76	+1.9+0.80
	J.Meyers	4	3	0	3311.0	+2.0+0.51	+1.5+0.37	+0.6+0.37
	P.Washington	3	1	0	77.0	−2.1−0.69	−2.1−0.70	−0.6−0.75
	N.Boerkircher	2	1	0	1515.0	+0.4+0.20	+0.5+0.26	+0.2+0.25
	Bri.Thomas	2	2	1	178.5	+3.7+1.86	+2.0+1.01	+0.7+0.96
	J.Cameron	2	2	0	4221.0	+3.7+1.83	+2.9+1.45	+1.1+1.47
	B.Tuten	2	2	0	189.0	+0.8+0.38	+0.8+0.42	+0.3+0.40

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	T.Higgins	16	11	0	15714.3	+7.0+0.43	+6.7+0.42	+1.6+0.34
	C.Brown	11	11	0	716.5	−0.7−0.06	+1.8+0.16	+0.7+0.22
	D.Meyers	9	7	0	8211.7	+1.0+0.11	+0.3+0.04	−0.2−0.07
	M.Tinsley	7	3	0	4916.3	−3.9−0.56	−3.1−0.44	−1.7−0.88
	M.Gesicki	5	3	1	4013.3	+3.3+0.66	+3.0+0.60	+0.9+0.64
	J.Chase	3	3	0	279.0	+5.1+1.69	+3.7+1.22	+1.5+1.22
	S.Perine	1	0	0	0—	−0.5−0.52	−0.4−0.45	−0.1−0.45
	T.Hudson	1	1	0	22.0	−0.5−0.45	−0.3−0.27	−0.1−0.27