MIN 23, TB 16 — week 3, 2026

23 at 16

Week 3 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
TB	81	16	2433.0	−22.8−0.282	−17.7−0.218	−18.0−0.222	+0.3+0.004	−6.3−0.231
MIN	72	23	2303.2	−14.6−0.203	−8.1−0.112	−11.8−0.163	+3.7+0.051	−2.8−0.113
NET	9	−7	13−0.2	−8.2−0.079	−9.6−0.106	−6.2−0.058	−3.4−0.047	−3.5−0.118
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is TB minus MIN.

Game Timeline

MIN at TB. MIN won by 7. Two panels. Top: TB's win probability across 167 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; TB was favored on 11% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at MIN by 9.6 in the first quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -19% at play 14, R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14. M.Price for… — TOUCHDOWN; -17% at play 62, K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41… — TOUCHDOWN; +17% at play 134, B.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10…; -23% at play 151, W.Reichard 56 yard field goal — GOOD.

Excitement

1.3 bits

#7 of 16 this week

74th percentile since 2006

Tension

0.89

#3 of 16 this week

87th percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

536 pts

#4 of 16 this week

83rd percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

87%

#1 of 16 this week

91st percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#10 of 16 this week

53rd percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

41%

#8 of 16 this week

40th percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q1 9:00	TB	4th & 5	TB 45	(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.	−7.60	−6.75	−0.85	−6.90	−19.1%	1.4×
2	Q2 4:17	MIN	3rd & 8	TB 41	(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].	+4.30	+5.37	−1.06	+5.36	+17.2%	1.4×
3	Q1 6:50	TB	1st & 10	MIN 40	(6:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+4.16	+3.99	+0.17	+3.39	+9.1%	1.3×
4	Q3 8:41	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 31	(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (50-V.Vea) at MIN 22. 91-A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (64-B.Brandel).	−3.52	−3.95	+0.43	−4.49	−15.6%	1.2×
5	Q2 8:42	TB	3rd & 2	MIN 44	(8:42) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to MIN 7 for 37 yards (44-J.Metellus; 55-E.Wilson).	+2.80	+2.77	+0.02	+3.00	+9.8%	1.4×
6	Q4 10:49	TB	3rd & 29	TB 36	(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.	+2.64	+2.69	−0.05	+3.22	+16.5%	1.2×
7	Q4 3:15	MIN	4th & 16	TB 38	(3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+2.51	+2.40	+0.11	+2.47	+23.1%	1.0×
8	Q1 10:20	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 40 for 40 yards (98-B.Richter; 23-J.Pierre).	+2.40	+0.66	+1.74	+0.91	+7.6%	1.4×
9	Q1 10:24	MIN	4th & 9	TB 36	(10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.82	+1.18	+0.65	+2.23	+6.1%	1.4×
10	Q2 10:58	MIN	3rd & 4	MIN 19	(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 10 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).	−1.74	−1.82	+0.08	−1.95	−6.4%	1.4×
11	Q1 4:42	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 29	(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at MIN 41 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.70	+1.71	−0.01	+1.81	+3.8%	1.4×
12	Q4 0:37	MIN	4th & 6	TB 25	(:37) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.68	+1.84	−0.16	+0.68	−4.1%	0.1×
13	Q2 5:26	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 27	(5:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison ran ob at TB 43 for 30 yards. Tampa Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)	+1.58	+1.64	−0.06	+1.85	+6.1%	1.4×
14	Q4 6:08	MIN	4th & 1	TB 35	(6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.53	+1.52	+0.01	+1.80	+10.4%	1.2×
15	Q2 0:06	TB	4th & 7	TB 40	(:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIN 15, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 25 for 10 yards (29-M.Killebrew).	+1.43	+1.55	−0.12	−0.07	+6.5%	1.1×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q1 9:00	TB	4th & 5	TB 45	(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.	−7.60	−6.75	−0.85	−6.90	−19.1%	1.4×
2	Q2 4:17	MIN	3rd & 8	TB 41	(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].	+4.30	+5.37	−1.06	+5.36	+17.2%	1.4×
3	Q1 6:50	TB	1st & 10	MIN 40	(6:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+4.16	+3.99	+0.17	+3.39	+9.1%	1.3×
4	Q3 8:41	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 31	(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (50-V.Vea) at MIN 22. 91-A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (64-B.Brandel).	−3.52	−3.95	+0.43	−4.49	−15.6%	1.2×
5	Q2 8:42	TB	3rd & 2	MIN 44	(8:42) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to MIN 7 for 37 yards (44-J.Metellus; 55-E.Wilson).	+2.80	+2.77	+0.02	+3.00	+9.8%	1.4×
6	Q1 10:20	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 40 for 40 yards (98-B.Richter; 23-J.Pierre).	+2.40	+0.66	+1.74	+0.91	+7.6%	1.4×
7	Q4 10:49	TB	3rd & 29	TB 36	(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.	+2.64	+2.69	−0.05	+3.22	+16.5%	1.2×
8	Q1 10:24	MIN	4th & 9	TB 36	(10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.82	+1.18	+0.65	+2.23	+6.1%	1.4×
9	Q4 3:15	MIN	4th & 16	TB 38	(3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+2.51	+2.40	+0.11	+2.47	+23.1%	1.0×
10	Q2 10:58	MIN	3rd & 4	MIN 19	(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 10 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).	−1.74	−1.82	+0.08	−1.95	−6.4%	1.4×
11	Q1 4:42	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 29	(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at MIN 41 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.70	+1.71	−0.01	+1.81	+3.8%	1.4×
12	Q2 5:26	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 27	(5:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison ran ob at TB 43 for 30 yards. Tampa Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)	+1.58	+1.64	−0.06	+1.85	+6.1%	1.4×
13	Q1 14:54	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 24	(14:54) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 46 for 22 yards (25-J.Parrish).	+1.39	+1.18	+0.20	+1.73	+3.9%	1.4×
14	Q4 6:08	MIN	4th & 1	TB 35	(6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.53	+1.52	+0.01	+1.80	+10.4%	1.2×
15	Q1 9:05	TB	3rd & 5	TB 45	(9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 11-J.McMillan (44-J.Metellus). TB-11-J.McMillan was injured during the play. Penalty on TB-78-T.Wirfs, Illegal Formation, declined.	−1.21	−1.19	−0.02	−1.64	−3.7%	1.4×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q4 3:15	MIN	4th & 16	TB 38	(3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+2.51	+2.40	+0.11	+2.47	+23.1%	1.0×
2	Q1 9:00	TB	4th & 5	TB 45	(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.	−7.60	−6.75	−0.85	−6.90	−19.1%	1.4×
3	Q2 4:17	MIN	3rd & 8	TB 41	(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].	+4.30	+5.37	−1.06	+5.36	+17.2%	1.4×
4	Q4 10:49	TB	3rd & 29	TB 36	(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.	+2.64	+2.69	−0.05	+3.22	+16.5%	1.2×
5	Q3 8:41	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 31	(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (50-V.Vea) at MIN 22. 91-A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (64-B.Brandel).	−3.52	−3.95	+0.43	−4.49	−15.6%	1.2×
6	Q4 1:54	TB	4th & 13	TB 39	(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.	−0.62	−0.53	−0.09	−2.11	−13.4%	0.8×
7	Q4 6:08	MIN	4th & 1	TB 35	(6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.53	+1.52	+0.01	+1.80	+10.4%	1.2×
8	Q2 8:42	TB	3rd & 2	MIN 44	(8:42) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to MIN 7 for 37 yards (44-J.Metellus; 55-E.Wilson).	+2.80	+2.77	+0.02	+3.00	+9.8%	1.4×
9	Q1 6:50	TB	1st & 10	MIN 40	(6:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+4.16	+3.99	+0.17	+3.39	+9.1%	1.3×
10	Q4 2:00	TB	3rd & 13	TB 39	(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.	−1.16	−1.17	0.00	−1.22	−8.3%	0.9×
11	Q1 10:20	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 40 for 40 yards (98-B.Richter; 23-J.Pierre).	+2.40	+0.66	+1.74	+0.91	+7.6%	1.4×
12	Q4 15:00	TB	3rd & 2	TB 24	(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 22 for -2 yards (sack split by 15-D.Turner and 44-J.Metellus).	−1.34	−1.31	−0.04	−1.95	−7.3%	1.3×
13	Q4 11:33	TB	2nd & 19	TB 46	(11:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 36 for -10 yards (51-B.Cashman).	−1.07	−1.07	+0.01	−1.58	−7.1%	1.3×
14	Q4 2:58	TB	1st & 10	TB 42	(2:58) 1-K.Gainwell right end to TB 38 for -4 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−0.98	−1.01	+0.03	−0.73	−7.1%	1.0×
15	Q4 13:23	TB	1st & 10	TB 34	(13:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to MIN 45 for 21 yards (44-J.Metellus).	+1.11	+1.17	−0.06	+1.26	+6.6%	1.3×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 167 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	MIN	Kickoff	TB 35	4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to MIN 3. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 21 yards (22-K.Scott; 51-D.Walker).	+0.01	+0.03	−0.02	−0.23	−0.0%	1.4×
Q1 14:54	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 24	(14:54) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 46 for 22 yards (25-J.Parrish).	+1.39	+1.18	+0.20	+1.73	+3.9%	1.4×
Q1 14:11	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 46	(14:11) 33-A.Jones left guard to TB 46 for 8 yards (97-A.Muhammad; 50-V.Vea).	+0.70	+0.52	+0.18	+0.60	+2.0%	1.4×
Q1 13:30	MIN	2nd & 2	TB 46	(13:30) 33-A.Jones right tackle to TB 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Winfield; 23-T.Smith).	+0.58	+0.45	+0.13	+0.58	+1.6%	1.4×
Q1 12:55	MIN	1st & 10	TB 37	(12:55) (No Huddle) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 35 for 2 yards (50-V.Vea).	−0.10	−0.24	+0.14	−0.44	−0.2%	1.4×
Q1 12:14	MIN	2nd & 8	TB 35	(12:14) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 36 for -1 yards (92-E.Simmons).	−0.64	−0.74	+0.10	−0.90	−1.8%	1.4×
Q1 11:33	MIN	3rd & 9	TB 36	(11:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked ob at TB 37 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play.	−0.87	−0.93	+0.06	−1.35	−2.6%	1.4×
Q1 11:07	MIN	3rd & 19	TB 46	(11:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to TB 36 for 10 yards (50-V.Vea; 23-T.Smith).	−0.12	−0.14	+0.01	0.00	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 10:24	MIN	4th & 9	TB 36	(10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.82	+1.18	+0.65	+2.23	+6.1%	1.4×
Q1 10:20	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 40 for 40 yards (98-B.Richter; 23-J.Pierre).	+2.40	+0.66	+1.74	+0.91	+7.6%	1.4×
Q1 10:11	TB	1st & 10	TB 40	(10:11) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 44 for 4 yards (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).	−0.25	−0.07	−0.18	−0.08	−0.8%	1.4×
Q1 9:28	TB	2nd & 6	TB 44	(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 45 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus).	−0.61	−0.52	−0.09	−0.73	−1.9%	1.4×
Q1 9:05	TB	3rd & 5	TB 45	(9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 11-J.McMillan (44-J.Metellus). TB-11-J.McMillan was injured during the play. Penalty on TB-78-T.Wirfs, Illegal Formation, declined.	−1.21	−1.19	−0.02	−1.64	−3.7%	1.4×
Q1 9:00	TB	4th & 5	TB 45	(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.	−7.60	−6.75	−0.85	−6.90	−19.1%	1.4×
Q1 8:43	MIN	Try	TB 30	16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	−0.39	−0.76	+0.37	+0.30	−0.6%	1.2×
Q1 8:43	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 57 yards from MIN 35 to TB 8. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 20 for 12 yards (41-J.Golday).	−0.44	−0.02	−0.42	−0.47	−1.0%	1.2×
Q1 8:38	TB	1st & 10	TB 20	(8:38) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Irving.	−0.50	−0.49	−0.01	−0.56	−1.2%	1.2×
Q1 8:29	TB	2nd & 10	TB 20	(8:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 34 for 14 yards (51-B.Cashman).	+1.14	+1.15	−0.02	+1.60	+2.7%	1.1×
Q1 7:50	TB	1st & 10	TB 34	(7:50) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 42 for 8 yards (26-T.Jackson).	+0.45	+0.45	0.00	+0.56	+1.4%	1.2×
Q1 7:14	TB	2nd & 2	TB 42	(7:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 45 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus; 50-L.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 45.	+0.88	+0.91	−0.03	+1.07	+2.4%	1.2×
Q1 6:50	TB	1st & 10	MIN 40	(6:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+4.16	+3.99	+0.17	+3.39	+9.1%	1.3×
Q1 6:44	TB	Try	MIN 15	4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	+0.54	−0.39	+0.93	+0.07	+2.1%	1.4×
Q1 6:44	MIN	Kickoff	TB 35	4-C.McLaughlin kicks 66 yards from TB 35 to MIN -1. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 31 yards (22-K.Scott).	+0.45	+0.83	−0.38	+0.30	+1.5%	1.4×
Q1 6:39	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 30	(6:39) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIN 35 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).	+0.06	+0.02	+0.04	−0.04	+0.1%	1.4×
Q1 5:50	MIN	2nd & 5	MIN 35	(5:50) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 36 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson). TB-0-Y.Diaby was injured during the play. PENALTY on MIN-84-J.Oliver, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at MIN 35 - No Play.	−1.10	−1.12	+0.02	−1.41	−3.4%	1.4×
Q1 5:26	MIN	2nd & 16	MIN 24	(5:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 29 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).	−0.12	−0.13	+0.01	−0.04	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 4:42	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 29	(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at MIN 41 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.70	+1.71	−0.01	+1.81	+3.8%	1.4×
Q1 4:02	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 41	(4:02) 21-D.Claiborne up the middle to MIN 44 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 31-A.Winfield).	−0.22	−0.20	−0.01	−0.20	−0.6%	1.4×
Q1 3:22	MIN	2nd & 7	MIN 44	(3:22) 21-D.Claiborne left end to MIN 43 for -1 yards (51-D.Walker).	−0.77	−0.76	−0.01	−1.02	−2.3%	1.4×
Q1 2:39	MIN	3rd & 8	MIN 43	(2:39) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Felton (27-Z.McCollum).	−1.20	−1.19	0.00	−1.43	−3.9%	1.4×
Q1 2:34	MIN	4th & 8	MIN 43	(2:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 16 yards (45-M.Bredeson).	−0.19	−0.53	+0.34	−0.54	−1.8%	1.4×
Q1 2:25	TB	1st & 10	TB 25	(2:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 29 for 4 yards (51-B.Cashman; 23-J.Pierre).	−0.10	−0.07	−0.04	−0.11	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 2:02	TB	2nd & 6	TB 29	(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (61-J.Redmond).	−0.60	−0.59	−0.01	−0.77	−2.2%	1.4×
Q1 1:56	TB	3rd & 6	TB 29	(1:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 33 for 4 yards (2-I.Rodgers).	−0.53	−0.48	−0.06	−1.02	−1.9%	1.4×
Q1 1:16	TB	4th & 2	TB 33	(1:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to MIN 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.	+0.15	−0.25	+0.40	+0.04	−0.7%	1.4×
Q1 1:09	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 19	(1:09) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 20 for 1 yard (95-E.Roberts). ** Injury Update: TB-0-Y.Diaby has returned to the game.	−0.36	−0.40	+0.03	−0.47	−1.1%	1.4×
Q1 0:25	MIN	2nd & 9	MIN 20	(:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 24 for 4 yards (25-J.Parrish).	−0.17	−0.20	+0.02	−0.37	−0.5%	1.4×
Q2 15:00	MIN	3rd & 5	MIN 24	(15:00) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -2 yards (34-A.Anzalone).	−1.17	−1.23	+0.06	−1.43	−4.2%	1.4×
Q2 14:11	MIN	4th & 7	MIN 22	(14:11) (Punt formation) PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 22 - No Play.	−0.36	−0.39	+0.02	−0.35	−1.3%	1.4×
Q2 13:56	MIN	4th & 12	MIN 17	(13:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.	+0.44	0.00	+0.45	+0.17	+0.4%	1.4×
Q2 13:49	TB	1st & 10	TB 40	(13:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 33 for -7 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−1.15	−1.09	−0.06	−1.50	−5.4%	1.4×
Q2 13:00	TB	2nd & 17	TB 33	(13:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.	−0.60	−0.60	−0.01	−0.86	−2.2%	1.4×
Q2 12:56	TB	3rd & 17	TB 33	(12:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 46 for 13 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 44-J.Metellus).	−0.02	+0.04	−0.07	+0.07	+0.2%	1.4×
Q2 12:19	TB	4th & 4	TB 46	(12:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.	+0.22	−0.22	+0.44	−0.09	−0.6%	1.4×
Q2 12:11	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 13	(12:11) 33-A.Jones right end to MIN 18 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 52-C.Rozeboom).	+0.08	+0.03	+0.05	+0.11	+0.4%	1.4×
Q2 11:29	MIN	2nd & 5	MIN 18	(11:29) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 19 for 1 yard (94-C.Kancey).	−0.44	−0.49	+0.05	−0.57	−1.5%	1.4×
Q2 10:58	MIN	3rd & 4	MIN 19	(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 10 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).	−1.74	−1.82	+0.08	−1.95	−6.4%	1.4×
Q2 10:15	MIN	4th & 13	MIN 10	(10:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-31-D.Dallas.	+0.35	−0.05	+0.40	−0.22	+0.2%	1.4×
Q2 10:06	TB	1st & 10	TB 48	(10:06) 7-B.Irving left guard to MIN 47 for 5 yards (61-J.Redmond).	+0.04	+0.07	−0.03	−0.02	+0.1%	1.4×
Q2 9:28	TB	2nd & 5	MIN 47	(9:28) 7-B.Irving right guard to MIN 44 for 3 yards (17-K.Van Noy; 51-B.Cashman).	−0.23	−0.21	−0.02	−0.25	−1.0%	1.4×
Q2 8:42	TB	3rd & 2	MIN 44	(8:42) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to MIN 7 for 37 yards (44-J.Metellus; 55-E.Wilson).	+2.80	+2.77	+0.02	+3.00	+9.8%	1.4×
Q2 7:56	TB	1st & 7	MIN 7	(7:56) 7-B.Irving right tackle to MIN 3 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 7 - No Play.	−0.91	−0.85	−0.06	−1.39	−3.1%	1.4×
Q2 7:31	TB	1st & 17	MIN 17	(7:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to MIN 12 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 17 - No Play.	−0.48	−0.45	−0.04	−0.64	−1.7%	1.4×
Q2 7:02	TB	1st & 27	MIN 27	(7:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to MIN 14 for 13 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 26-T.Jackson).	+0.32	+0.31	+0.01	+0.58	+1.1%	1.4×
Q2 6:23	TB	2nd & 14	MIN 14	(6:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at MIN 10 for 4 yards (55-E.Wilson).	−0.16	−0.16	0.00	−0.17	−0.6%	1.4×
Q2 5:41	TB	3rd & 10	MIN 10	(5:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Gainwell.	−0.87	−0.87	0.00	−0.80	−3.2%	1.4×
Q2 5:35	TB	4th & 10	MIN 10	(5:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	−0.09	−0.32	+0.23	+0.12	−0.8%	1.4×
Q2 5:33	MIN	Kickoff	TB 35	4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 27 for 27 yards (5-I.Melifonwu).	+0.22	+0.33	−0.11	+0.06	+0.9%	1.4×
Q2 5:26	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 27	(5:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison ran ob at TB 43 for 30 yards. Tampa Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)	+1.58	+1.64	−0.06	+1.85	+6.1%	1.4×
Q2 5:01	MIN	1st & 10	TB 43	(5:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones.	−0.46	−0.45	0.00	−0.44	−1.7%	1.4×
Q2 4:57	MIN	2nd & 10	TB 43	(4:57) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to TB 41 for 2 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 50-V.Vea).	−0.53	−0.50	−0.03	−0.61	−2.0%	1.4×
Q2 4:17	MIN	3rd & 8	TB 41	(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea].	+4.30	+5.37	−1.06	+5.36	+17.2%	1.4×
Q2 4:11	MIN	Try	TB 15	16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+0.01	−0.82	+0.83	+0.07	−0.1%	1.2×
Q2 4:11	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 33 for 33 yards (32-C.Chambliss; 0-I.Pace). PENALTY on TB-29-M.Killebrew, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 26.	−0.68	−0.54	−0.14	−0.55	−2.2%	1.2×
Q2 4:06	TB	1st & 10	TB 16	(4:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 20 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus).	−0.05	−0.12	+0.07	+0.06	−0.7%	1.2×
Q2 3:22	TB	2nd & 6	TB 20	(3:22) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to TB 24 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre).	+0.02	−0.06	+0.09	+0.06	−0.5%	1.2×
Q2 2:36	TB	3rd & 2	TB 24	(2:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 26 for 2 yards (15-D.Turner). The first down was assisted by replay.	+0.69	+0.62	+0.07	+0.52	+2.2%	1.2×
Q2 2:00	TB	1st & 10	TB 26	(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton (55-E.Wilson).	−0.46	−0.47	0.00	−0.33	−1.7%	1.2×
Q2 1:58	TB	2nd & 10	TB 26	(1:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Otton.	−0.59	−0.60	+0.01	−0.44	−2.2%	1.2×
Q2 1:53	TB	3rd & 10	TB 26	(1:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.	−1.06	−1.08	+0.01	−0.74	−3.4%	1.1×
Q2 1:46	TB	4th & 10	TB 26	(1:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.	+0.69	+0.81	−0.11	+0.01	+3.9%	1.0×
Q2 1:39	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 20	(1:39) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 26 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish).	+0.14	+0.16	−0.03	−0.05	+0.8%	1.1×
Q2 1:13	MIN	2nd & 4	MIN 26	(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Felton (50-V.Vea).	−0.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.21	−1.8%	1.1×
Q2 1:10	MIN	3rd & 4	MIN 26	(1:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison (27-Z.McCollum).	−1.08	−1.08	−0.01	−0.53	−3.7%	1.2×
Q2 1:03	MIN	4th & 4	MIN 26	(1:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.	+0.21	+0.38	−0.17	−0.27	+2.3%	1.2×
Q2 0:56	TB	1st & 10	TB 23	(:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Otton [43-A.Van Ginkel].	−0.47	−0.47	+0.01	−0.23	−1.8%	1.2×
Q2 0:52	TB	2nd & 10	TB 23	(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 37 for 14 yards (22-H.Smith).	+1.23	+1.22	+0.02	+0.47	+4.9%	1.2×
Q2 0:34	TB	1st & 10	TB 37	(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 32 for -5 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 55-E.Wilson).	−0.95	−0.96	+0.01	−0.62	−4.9%	1.3×
Q2 0:27	TB	2nd & 15	TB 32	(:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-T.Johnson to TB 40 for 8 yards (23-J.Pierre).	+0.17	+0.16	+0.01	+0.07	+1.0%	1.2×
Q2 0:12	TB	3rd & 7	TB 40	(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 15-T.Johnson.	−1.15	−1.16	+0.01	−0.20	−3.9%	1.2×
Q2 0:06	TB	4th & 7	TB 40	(:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIN 15, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 25 for 10 yards (29-M.Killebrew).	+1.43	+1.55	−0.12	−0.07	+6.5%	1.1×
Q3 15:00	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 62 yards from MIN 35 to TB 3. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 30 for 27 yards (23-J.Pierre).	+0.16	+0.02	+0.14	+0.33	+0.6%	1.2×
Q3 14:55	TB	1st & 10	TB 30	(14:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson).	−0.15	−0.17	+0.03	−0.27	−0.7%	1.2×
Q3 14:14	TB	2nd & 7	TB 33	(14:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 41 for 8 yards (2-I.Rodgers).	+0.77	+0.77	0.00	+0.97	+3.4%	1.2×
Q3 13:38	TB	1st & 10	TB 41	(13:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 44 for 3 yards (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).	−0.16	−0.16	0.00	−0.19	−0.7%	1.3×
Q3 12:58	TB	2nd & 7	TB 44	(12:58) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 42 for -2 yards (55-E.Wilson). Penalty on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, declined.	−0.80	−0.80	+0.01	−1.18	−3.3%	1.3×
Q3 12:34	TB	3rd & 9	TB 42	(12:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka [55-E.Wilson].	−1.18	−1.18	0.00	−1.52	−4.2%	1.2×
Q3 12:29	TB	4th & 9	TB 42	(12:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.	+0.20	+0.04	+0.16	−0.09	+0.6%	1.1×
Q3 12:21	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 20	(12:21) 33-A.Jones right end to MIN 34 for 14 yards (31-A.Winfield; 25-J.Parrish).	+0.68	+0.78	−0.10	+0.95	+2.3%	1.1×
Q3 11:36	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 34	(11:36) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 36 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 8-S.Dennis).	−0.32	−0.24	−0.08	−0.37	−1.0%	1.1×
Q3 10:51	MIN	2nd & 8	MIN 36	(10:51) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right.	−0.61	−0.60	−0.01	−0.82	−2.0%	1.1×
Q3 10:45	MIN	3rd & 8	MIN 36	(10:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-J.Jennings pushed ob at MIN 37 for 1 yard (22-K.Scott). Penalty on MIN-71-C.Darrisaw, Offensive Holding, declined.	−1.02	−0.99	−0.02	−1.23	−3.9%	1.1×
Q3 10:30	MIN	4th & 7	MIN 37	(10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to TB 0, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 14 for 14 yards (23-J.Pierre).	+0.59	+0.28	+0.31	+0.46	+3.1%	1.2×
Q3 10:19	TB	1st & 10	TB 14	(10:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 19 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus) [0-I.Pace].	+0.06	+0.04	+0.02	−0.06	−0.2%	1.2×
Q3 9:44	TB	2nd & 5	TB 19	(9:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka.	−0.62	−0.62	0.00	−0.86	−2.5%	1.2×
Q3 9:41	TB	3rd & 5	TB 19	(9:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.	−0.91	−0.91	0.00	−1.41	−3.1%	1.1×
Q3 9:38	TB	4th & 5	TB 19	(9:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to MIN 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 10 yards (84-B.Sharp).	+0.35	−0.01	+0.36	+0.43	+1.9%	1.0×
Q3 9:24	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 32	(9:24) 21-D.Claiborne left tackle to MIN 31 for -1 yards (95-E.Roberts).	−0.59	−0.55	−0.03	−0.88	−1.7%	1.1×
Q3 8:45	MIN	2nd & 11	MIN 31	(8:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 87-T.Hockenson.	−0.60	−0.59	0.00	−0.79	−2.1%	1.1×
Q3 8:41	MIN	3rd & 11	MIN 31	(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (50-V.Vea) at MIN 22. 91-A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (64-B.Brandel).	−3.52	−3.95	+0.43	−4.49	−15.6%	1.2×
Q3 8:35	TB	1st & 10	MIN 22	(8:35) 7-B.Irving left end to MIN 19 for 3 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).	−0.08	−0.10	+0.02	−0.32	−0.5%	1.4×
Q3 7:56	TB	2nd & 7	MIN 19	(7:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).	−0.47	−0.48	0.00	−0.65	−2.1%	1.4×
Q3 7:51	TB	3rd & 7	MIN 19	(7:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked ob at MIN 20 for -1 yards (55-E.Wilson).	−0.81	−0.82	0.00	−1.38	−3.6%	1.3×
Q3 7:16	TB	4th & 8	MIN 20	(7:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	−0.22	−0.07	−0.15	+0.55	−2.7%	1.3×
Q3 7:12	MIN	Kickoff	TB 35	4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 28 for 28 yards (29-M.Killebrew; 41-K.Kieft).	−0.02	+0.14	−0.16	+0.14	−0.0%	1.3×
Q3 7:06	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 28	(7:06) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle.	−0.47	−0.46	0.00	−0.58	−2.1%	1.3×
Q3 7:00	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 28	(7:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 28 - No Play.	−0.51	−0.51	0.00	−0.76	−2.4%	1.3×
Q3 6:58	MIN	2nd & 15	MIN 23	(6:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 29 for 6 yards (94-C.Kancey).	−0.03	−0.01	−0.02	+0.20	+0.0%	1.3×
Q3 6:15	MIN	3rd & 9	MIN 29	(6:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left.	−1.08	−1.08	0.00	−1.31	−5.5%	1.3×
Q3 6:09	MIN	4th & 9	MIN 29	(6:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to TB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 34 for 10 yards (41-J.Golday; 29-Jac.Thomas).	+0.09	−0.34	+0.42	−0.51	+0.5%	1.4×
Q3 5:58	TB	1st & 10	TB 34	(5:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 35 for 1 yard (51-B.Cashman; 0-I.Pace).	−0.36	−0.36	0.00	−0.55	−2.0%	1.4×
Q3 5:18	TB	2nd & 9	TB 35	(5:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 29 for -6 yards (sack split by 0-I.Pace and 17-K.Van Noy).	−1.18	−1.19	0.00	−1.41	−6.5%	1.3×
Q3 4:28	TB	3rd & 15	TB 29	(4:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to TB 44 for 15 yards (17-K.Van Noy) [51-B.Cashman]. PENALTY on TB-7-B.Irving, Chop Block, 14 yards, enforced at TB 29 - No Play.	−0.76	−0.77	+0.01	−1.35	−3.7%	1.3×
Q3 4:03	TB	3rd & 29	TB 15	(4:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15 - No Play.	−0.38	−0.39	+0.01	−0.53	−1.4%	1.2×
Q3 3:50	TB	3rd & 30	TB 8	(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell left tackle to TB 14 for 6 yards (55-E.Wilson).	−0.55	−0.53	−0.02	−0.39	−3.1%	1.2×
Q3 3:09	TB	4th & 30	TB 14	(3:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to MIN 39, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.	+0.70	+0.34	+0.37	+0.52	+4.0%	1.1×
Q3 2:57	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 39	(2:57) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 41 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 52-C.Rozeboom).	−0.26	−0.28	+0.02	−0.40	−1.1%	1.2×
Q3 2:13	MIN	2nd & 8	MIN 41	(2:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 42 for 1 yard (97-A.Muhammad).	−0.52	−0.54	+0.01	−0.69	−2.4%	1.2×
Q3 1:30	MIN	3rd & 7	MIN 42	(1:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison.	−1.18	−1.18	0.00	−1.42	−6.1%	1.2×
Q3 1:27	MIN	4th & 7	MIN 42	(1:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.	+0.37	−0.03	+0.40	+0.04	+2.9%	1.3×
Q3 1:20	TB	1st & 10	TB 16	(1:20) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 21 for 5 yards (15-D.Turner).	+0.02	+0.06	−0.04	−0.20	−0.2%	1.3×
Q3 0:40	TB	2nd & 5	TB 21	(:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 24 for 3 yards (55-E.Wilson).	−0.16	−0.12	−0.04	−0.20	−1.2%	1.3×
Q4 15:00	TB	3rd & 2	TB 24	(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 22 for -2 yards (sack split by 15-D.Turner and 44-J.Metellus).	−1.34	−1.31	−0.04	−1.95	−7.3%	1.3×
Q4 14:23	TB	4th & 4	TB 22	(14:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to MIN 25, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 25 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).	+0.66	+0.16	+0.50	+0.71	+4.2%	1.1×
Q4 14:17	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 25	(14:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Hockenson.	−0.47	−0.47	0.00	−0.57	−2.5%	1.2×
Q4 14:11	MIN	2nd & 10	MIN 25	(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.	−0.61	−0.61	0.00	−0.74	−3.3%	1.2×
Q4 14:06	MIN	3rd & 10	MIN 25	(14:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 29 for 4 yards (22-K.Scott). PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 25 - No Play.	+0.50	+0.50	0.00	+0.55	+2.9%	1.3×
Q4 13:35	MIN	3rd & 5	MIN 30	(13:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 14-J.Jennings (22-K.Scott).	−1.08	−1.08	0.00	−1.31	−6.2%	1.2×
Q4 13:30	MIN	4th & 5	MIN 30	(13:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TB 34, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.	−0.06	−0.62	+0.56	−0.59	+0.4%	1.3×
Q4 13:23	TB	1st & 10	TB 34	(13:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to MIN 45 for 21 yards (44-J.Metellus).	+1.11	+1.17	−0.06	+1.26	+6.6%	1.3×
Q4 12:44	TB	1st & 10	MIN 45	(12:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to MIN 44 for 1 yard (55-E.Wilson; 95-C.Banks).	−0.35	−0.33	−0.02	−0.52	−2.2%	1.3×
Q4 12:02	TB	2nd & 9	MIN 44	(12:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 14 yards (51-B.Cashman). PENALTY on TB-87-P.Durham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 44 - No Play.	−0.80	−0.81	+0.01	−0.76	−5.0%	1.3×
Q4 11:33	TB	2nd & 19	TB 46	(11:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 36 for -10 yards (51-B.Cashman).	−1.07	−1.07	+0.01	−1.58	−7.1%	1.3×
Q4 10:49	TB	3rd & 29	TB 36	(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.	+2.64	+2.69	−0.05	+3.22	+16.5%	1.2×
Q4 10:20	TB	1st & 10	MIN 39	(10:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to MIN 45 for -6 yards (17-K.Van Noy, 43-A.Van Ginkel).	−1.02	−1.03	+0.02	−1.27	−6.6%	1.3×
Q4 9:56	TB	2nd & 16	MIN 45	(9:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 87-P.Durham.	−0.68	−0.68	0.00	−0.96	−4.4%	1.3×
Q4 9:46	TB	3rd & 16	MIN 45	(9:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to MIN 36 for 9 yards (51-B.Cashman; 23-J.Pierre).	−0.05	−0.03	−0.02	−0.48	−0.2%	1.2×
Q4 9:06	TB	4th & 7	MIN 36	(9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	+0.53	+0.23	+0.31	+2.33	+4.7%	1.2×
Q4 9:02	MIN	Kickoff	TB 35	4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to MIN 5. 4-M.Price to MIN 30 for 25 yards (8-S.Dennis). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 30.	+0.38	+0.38	0.00	+1.15	+2.2%	1.2×
Q4 8:56	MIN	1st & 10	MIN 45	(8:56) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIN 46 for 1 yard (27-Z.McCollum).	−0.37	−0.37	0.00	−0.40	−2.5%	1.2×
Q4 8:24	MIN	2nd & 9	MIN 46	(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 3-J.Addison to TB 44 for 10 yards (25-J.Parrish).	+0.96	+0.98	−0.02	+1.14	+6.2%	1.2×
Q4 7:43	MIN	1st & 10	TB 44	(7:43) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left.	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.42	−3.0%	1.2×
Q4 7:38	MIN	2nd & 10	TB 44	(7:38) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to TB 39 for 5 yards (0-Y.Diaby).	−0.15	−0.15	−0.01	−0.13	−1.2%	1.2×
Q4 6:53	MIN	3rd & 5	TB 39	(6:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to TB 35 for 4 yards (34-A.Anzalone).	−0.31	−0.31	0.00	−0.45	−2.3%	1.2×
Q4 6:08	MIN	4th & 1	TB 35	(6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).	+1.53	+1.52	+0.01	+1.80	+10.4%	1.2×
Q4 5:24	MIN	1st & 10	TB 32	(5:24) 1-K.Murray sacked at TB 37 for -5 yards (98-A.Nelson).	−1.02	−1.04	+0.02	−1.22	−6.4%	1.1×
Q4 4:49	MIN	2nd & 15	TB 37	(4:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to TB 35 for 2 yards (31-A.Winfield).	−0.51	−0.53	+0.02	−0.64	−3.3%	1.1×
Q4 4:02	MIN	3rd & 13	TB 35	(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 33-A.Jones (95-E.Roberts). PENALTY on MIN-76-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play.	−0.68	−0.70	+0.02	−0.69	−5.2%	1.1×
Q4 3:58	MIN	3rd & 22	TB 44	(3:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 3-J.Addison to TB 35 for 9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.	−0.25	−0.27	+0.02	−0.27	−2.0%	1.1×
Q4 3:52	MIN	3rd & 27	TB 49	(3:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to TB 38 for 11 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).	−0.72	−0.71	0.00	−0.38	−5.5%	1.1×
Q4 3:15	MIN	4th & 16	TB 38	(3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+2.51	+2.40	+0.11	+2.47	+23.1%	1.0×
Q4 3:10	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to TB 6. 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 29 for 23 yards (23-J.Pierre).	+0.43	+0.38	+0.04	+0.29	+3.2%	0.9×
Q4 3:05	TB	1st & 10	TB 29	(3:05) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 42 for 13 yards (51-B.Cashman).	+0.66	+0.67	−0.01	+0.61	+5.5%	1.0×
Q4 2:58	TB	1st & 10	TB 42	(2:58) 1-K.Gainwell right end to TB 38 for -4 yards (17-K.Van Noy).	−0.98	−1.01	+0.03	−0.73	−7.1%	1.0×
Q4 2:25	TB	2nd & 14	TB 38	(2:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to TB 39 for 1 yard (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel).	−0.62	−0.64	+0.02	−0.49	−4.5%	1.0×
Q4 2:00	TB	3rd & 13	TB 39	(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.	−1.16	−1.17	0.00	−1.22	−8.3%	0.9×
Q4 1:54	TB	4th & 13	TB 39	(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.	−0.62	−0.53	−0.09	−2.11	−13.4%	0.8×
Q4 1:39	MIN	1st & 10	TB 41	(1:39) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to TB 29 for 12 yards (23-T.Smith).	+0.67	+0.68	−0.01	+0.80	+3.9%	0.4×
Q4 1:32	MIN	1st & 10	TB 29	(1:32) 31-D.Dallas up the middle to TB 27 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis; 31-A.Winfield).	−0.22	−0.22	+0.01	−0.69	+0.8%	0.3×
Q4 1:28	MIN	2nd & 8	TB 27	(1:28) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 26 for 1 yard (92-E.Simmons).	−0.41	−0.42	+0.01	−1.41	+0.6%	0.2×
Q4 1:22	MIN	3rd & 7	TB 26	(1:22) 33-A.Jones left guard to TB 25 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis; 91-A.Robinson).	−0.78	−0.87	+0.09	+0.86	+2.8%	0.2×
Q4 0:37	MIN	4th & 6	TB 25	(:37) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.	+1.68	+1.84	−0.16	+0.68	−4.1%	0.1×
Q4 0:33	TB	Kickoff	MIN 35	16-W.Reichard kicks 66 yards from MIN 35 to TB -1. 1-K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 31 for 32 yards (32-C.Chambliss).	−0.19	−0.11	−0.08	+0.02	−1.0%	0.3×
Q4 0:28	TB	1st & 10	TB 31	(:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst.	−0.50	−0.50	0.00	−0.13	−1.7%	0.3×
Q4 0:21	TB	2nd & 10	TB 31	(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at TB 41 for 10 yards (55-E.Wilson). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at TB 40 for 9 yards (55-E.Wilson).	+0.49	+0.49	−0.01	+0.13	+0.4%	0.2×
Q4 0:14	TB	3rd & 1	TB 40	(:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Gainwell (51-B.Cashman).	−1.19	−1.19	0.00	−0.24	−1.8%	0.2×
Q4 0:08	TB	4th & 1	TB 40	(:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers at MIN 3. 2-I.Rodgers to MIN 3 for no gain (17-T.Hurst).	−0.42	+0.38	−0.80	−0.09	−0.6%	0.1×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	T.Hurst	TB	3	—	—	+3.1+1.02	+3.1+1.02	+1.2+1.45	+2.5+0.83
	C.Otton	TB	6	—	—	+2.5+0.41	+2.5+0.41	+1.0+0.48	+3.5+0.59
	J.Jefferson	MIN	2	—	—	+1.3+0.63	+1.3+0.63	+0.5+0.63	+1.7+0.86
	E.Egbuka	TB	9	—	—	+0.9+0.10	+0.9+0.10	+0.4+0.14	−0.5−0.05
	J.Addison	MIN	9	—	—	0.00.00	0.00.00	+0.4+0.13	+0.5+0.06
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	K.Murray	15	29	1	1	3	1685.8	−12.1−0.38	−11.8−0.37	−3.8−0.35

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Mayfield	17	34	1	1	6	2176.4	−10.9−0.27	−6.1−0.15	−2.1−0.15
	J.Daniels	0	3	0	1	0	00.0	−0.5−0.15	−2.1−0.70	−0.1−0.75

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	A.Jones	17	0	583.4	−1.4−0.08	−1.0−0.06	−0.1−0.01
	D.Claiborne	3	0	10.3	−2.1−0.70	−1.6−0.52	−0.6−0.52
	K.Murray	2	0	178.5	+1.8+0.89	+1.8+0.88	+0.7+0.89
	D.Dallas	1	0	22.0	−0.7−0.69	−0.2−0.22	0.0−0.22

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Irving	15	0	463.1	−2.7−0.18	−1.8−0.12	−0.7−0.13
	K.Gainwell	3	0	−4−1.3	−2.4−0.79	−2.5−0.85	−0.8−0.85
	B.Mayfield	2	0	63.0	+0.6+0.29	+0.7+0.36	+0.2+0.36
	J.Daniels	1	0	99.0	+0.1+0.13	+0.5+0.49	0.0+0.49

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	J.Addison	9	5	1	9018.0	+0.5+0.06	0.00.00	+0.4+0.13
	A.Jones	6	5	0	346.8	−1.2−0.21	−1.5−0.24	−0.6−0.35
	T.Hockenson	4	2	0	115.5	−1.2−0.30	−1.2−0.30	−0.4−0.28
	J.Jefferson	2	2	0	3216.0	+1.7+0.86	+1.3+0.63	+0.5+0.63
	T.Felton	2	0	0	0—	−1.6−0.82	−1.8−0.90	−0.7−0.93
	J.Jennings	2	1	0	11.0	−2.5−1.27	−2.1−1.05	−0.7−1.05

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	E.Egbuka	9	5	0	6212.4	−0.5−0.05	+0.9+0.10	+0.4+0.14
	C.Otton	6	3	0	5618.7	+3.5+0.59	+2.5+0.41	+1.0+0.48
	K.Gainwell	5	2	0	147.0	−3.0−0.61	−2.6−0.53	−0.5−0.44
	B.Irving	4	2	0	126.0	−0.4−0.10	−0.4−0.09	−0.1−0.10
	C.Godwin	4	3	0	258.3	−1.5−0.37	−0.8−0.21	−0.3−0.22
	T.Hurst	3	1	1	4040.0	+2.5+0.83	+3.1+1.02	+1.2+1.45
	T.Johnson	2	1	0	88.0	−0.1−0.07	−1.0−0.49	−0.3−0.50
	J.McMillan	1	0	0	0—	−1.6−1.64	−1.2−1.21	−0.5−1.21
	P.Durham	1	0	0	0—	−1.0−0.96	−0.7−0.68	−0.2−0.68