PIT 3, NE 20 — week 2, 2026

3 at 20

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
NE	64	20	3275.1	−5.4−0.085	−2.4−0.038	−3.0−0.046	+0.5+0.008	+1.0+0.072
PIT	81	3	2352.9	−25.7−0.317	−18.3−0.226	−22.0−0.272	+3.7+0.046	−4.5−0.233
NET	−17	17	922.2	+20.3+0.232	+15.9+0.188	+19.1+0.226	−3.2−0.037	+5.4+0.305
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is NE minus PIT.

Game Timeline

PIT at NE. NE won by 17. Two panels. Top: NE's win probability across 153 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 100%; NE was favored on 100% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at NE by 18.6 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +9% at play 18, T.Henderson left guard for 39 yards — TOUCHDOWN; +10% at play 51, A.Rodgers sacked at NE 31 for -9 yards — FUMBLES; +9% at play 107, D.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs pushed ob at PIT 29 for….

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	R.Doubs	NE	4	—	—	+4.4+1.09	+4.4+1.09	+1.5+1.76	+5.6+1.39
	P.Freiermuth	PIT	6	—	+1.7+1.70	+1.2+0.24	+2.9+0.49	+0.7+0.44	+1.8+0.30
	E.Raridon	NE	1	—	—	+1.9+1.89	+1.9+1.89	+0.6+1.89	+2.2+2.17
	C.Kiner	NE	2	—	+1.0+0.52	—	+1.0+0.52	0.0−0.10	−0.3−0.14
	M.Hollins	NE	2	—	—	+1.0+0.48	+1.0+0.48	+0.2+0.48	+1.1+0.53
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
PIT
	A.Rodgers	23	39	0	1	4	1874.8	−21.4−0.50	−18.2−0.42	−4.0−0.42
	M.Rudolph	0	1	0	0	0	00.0	−0.4−0.42	−0.5−0.50	0.0−0.50

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	D.Maye	14	22	0	1	3	2089.5	−5.3−0.21	−3.4−0.14	−0.1−0.02

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
PIT
	J.Warren	11	0	433.9	−2.2−0.20	−1.6−0.15	−0.5−0.18
	R.Dowdle	7	0	223.1	−2.4−0.34	−1.0−0.15	−0.3−0.14
	T.Homer	2	0	168.0	+0.9+0.46	+0.9+0.47	+0.2+0.42
	P.Freiermuth	1	0	22.0	+2.1+2.13	+1.7+1.70	+0.4+1.70
	A.Rodgers	1	0	55.0	+0.2+0.23	0.0−0.04	0.0−0.04
	M.Rudolph	1	0	33.0	−0.7−0.70	−0.9−0.93	0.0−0.93

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	T.Henderson	16	1	764.8	−1.6−0.10	−1.1−0.07	+0.9+0.26
	R.Stevenson	6	0	437.2	+1.8+0.30	+1.8+0.31	+0.7+0.58
	D.Maye	4	0	174.2	+1.8+0.44	+1.2+0.29	+0.1+0.32
	C.Kiner	2	0	00.0	−0.3−0.14	+1.0+0.52	0.0−0.10

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
PIT
	D.Metcalf	9	4	0	276.8	−3.2−0.35	−2.2−0.24	−1.0−0.59
	G.Bernard	8	4	0	358.8	−3.7−0.46	−3.7−0.46	+0.1+0.08
	R.Wilson	6	5	0	285.6	+0.4+0.06	+0.2+0.04	−0.1−0.15
	P.Freiermuth	5	4	0	328.0	−0.3−0.07	+1.2+0.24	+0.2+0.17
	J.Warren	4	2	0	3417.0	0.0−0.01	+0.4+0.10	−0.6−0.67
	D.Washington	2	1	0	77.0	−0.1−0.03	−0.1−0.03	0.0−0.02
	R.Dowdle	2	2	0	2211.0	+1.4+0.68	+1.3+0.67	+0.4+0.65
	B.Skowronek	1	1	0	22.0	−0.5−0.47	−0.4−0.36	−0.1−0.36

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	H.Henry	5	3	0	4013.3	−2.9−0.57	−1.8−0.36	−0.1−0.10
	R.Doubs	4	3	0	9632.0	+5.6+1.39	+4.4+1.09	+1.5+1.76
	D.Douglas	2	1	0	99.0	−0.2−0.09	−0.2−0.11	+0.1+0.13
	R.Stevenson	2	1	0	33.0	−4.9−2.47	−3.7−1.86	−1.4−2.12
	R.Gilliam	2	1	0	44.0	−0.6−0.31	−0.6−0.28	−0.2−0.32
	M.Hollins	2	2	0	189.0	+1.1+0.53	+1.0+0.48	+0.2+0.48
	K.Williams	2	1	0	1010.0	+1.0+0.48	+0.7+0.34	+0.4+1.31
	E.Raridon	1	1	0	3030.0	+2.2+2.17	+1.9+1.89	+0.6+1.89
	E.Chism	1	1	0	−2−2.0	−2.4−2.38	−1.2−1.20	−0.2−1.20