MIN 9, CHI 3 — week 2, 2026

9 at 3

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
CHI	83	3	2973.6	−11.7−0.140	−7.6−0.091	−8.7−0.104	+1.1+0.013	−2.5−0.081
MIN	62	9	2464.0	−2.2−0.036	+0.4+0.006	−3.5−0.056	+3.8+0.062	−0.3−0.012
NET	21	−6	51−0.3	−9.5−0.105	−7.9−0.097	−5.2−0.048	−2.8−0.049	−2.2−0.070
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is CHI minus MIN.

Game Timeline

MIN at CHI. MIN won by 6. Two panels. Top: CHI's win probability across 151 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; CHI was favored on 29% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at MIN by 6.0 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -20% at play 89, D.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain — FUMBLES; +17% at play 121, C.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to MIN 32 for 32 yards; -13% at play 136, C.Wentz pass short right to T.Hockenson to CHI 44 for 19…; -10% at play 151, T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	K.Raymond	CHI	5	—	—	+4.6+0.93	+4.6+0.93	+1.8+0.94	+5.2+1.04
	C.Williams	CHI	34	+0.3+0.01	+2.6+0.51	—	+2.9+0.08	+1.0+0.08	+1.9+0.06
	R.Odunze	CHI	4	—	—	+2.0+0.50	+2.0+0.50	+0.4+0.32	+1.6+0.39
	T.Hockenson	MIN	4	—	—	+1.6+0.39	+1.6+0.39	+0.6+0.47	+3.3+0.82
	J.Oliver	MIN	1	—	—	+1.3+1.27	+1.3+1.27	+0.5+1.27	+1.6+1.61
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	C.Wentz	11	20	0	0	3	1437.2	+0.5+0.02	−1.5−0.06	−0.6−0.08

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	C.Williams	15	26	0	1	3	1385.3	−1.0−0.04	+0.3+0.01	0.00.00
	T.Bagent	5	9	0	0	1	546.0	−2.8−0.28	−3.5−0.35	−0.9−0.39

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	A.Jones	23	0	1054.6	−2.4−0.10	−1.0−0.04	−0.2−0.03
	C.Wentz	3	0	62.0	−2.2−0.72	−1.4−0.48	−0.6−0.49
	D.Dallas	2	0	84.0	0.0+0.01	−0.2−0.08	−0.1−0.08

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	D.Swift	16	0	452.8	−8.9−0.55	−6.9−0.43	−2.5−0.41
	K.Monangai	10	0	474.7	+1.0+0.10	+1.2+0.12	+0.4+0.11
	C.Williams	5	0	428.4	+3.0+0.59	+2.6+0.51	+1.0+0.50

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	J.Jefferson	6	3	0	5518.3	+1.5+0.25	+1.2+0.20	+0.5+0.22
	J.Addison	5	2	0	2110.5	−0.6−0.12	−0.2−0.05	−0.2−0.12
	T.Hockenson	4	3	0	299.7	+3.3+0.82	+1.6+0.39	+0.6+0.47
	D.Claiborne	1	1	0	22.0	−0.7−0.73	−0.6−0.57	−0.2−0.57
	M.Price	1	0	0	0—	−0.2−0.21	−0.5−0.47	−0.2−0.47
	J.Oliver	1	1	0	2424.0	+1.6+1.61	+1.3+1.27	+0.5+1.27
	D.Dallas	1	1	0	1212.0	+0.4+0.36	+0.4+0.41	+0.2+0.41

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	L.Burden	7	3	0	3210.7	−3.6−0.51	−2.4−0.35	−1.2−0.58
	D.Swift	5	5	0	5410.8	+4.6+0.92	+4.2+0.83	+1.6+0.85
	K.Raymond	5	5	0	408.0	+5.2+1.04	+4.6+0.93	+1.8+0.94
	R.Odunze	4	3	0	4314.3	+1.6+0.39	+2.0+0.50	+0.4+0.32
	C.Loveland	3	1	0	33.0	−1.5−0.50	−1.6−0.55	−0.5−0.51
	S.Roush	3	1	0	99.0	−0.2−0.06	−0.1−0.04	0.0−0.04
	K.Monangai	2	2	0	115.5	−0.7−0.34	0.00.00	0.0−0.03
	C.Kmet	1	0	0	0—	−1.2−1.19	−1.2−1.18	−0.5−1.18