TB 27, CIN 33 — week 1, 2026

27 at 33

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
CIN	71	33	3514.9	+2.9+0.040	+2.6+0.037	+3.2+0.045	−0.6−0.009	+1.3+0.110
TB	64	27	2824.4	−4.7−0.073	−4.3−0.068	−6.2−0.097	+1.9+0.029	−3.6−0.239
NET	7	6	690.5	+7.5+0.114	+6.9+0.104	+9.4+0.142	−2.5−0.038	+4.9+0.349
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is CIN minus TB.

Game Timeline

TB at CIN. CIN won by 6. Two panels. Top: CIN's win probability across 155 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 100%; CIN was favored on 90% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at CIN by 18.9 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +20% at play 21, B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for… — FUMBLES, RETURNED FOR TD; +12% at play 45, B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8… — FUMBLES; -12% at play 105, J.Burrow pass short right… — INTERCEPTED, RETURNED FOR TD; +8% at play 144, PENALTY on TB-C.Mauch, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at….

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	M.Gesicki	CIN	7	—	—	+6.3+0.90	+6.3+0.90	+1.5+1.03	+6.9+0.98
	E.Egbuka	TB	6	—	—	+4.3+0.71	+4.3+0.71	+1.3+0.69	+4.8+0.79
	T.Higgins	CIN	6	—	—	+3.1+0.51	+3.1+0.51	+0.2+0.16	+2.3+0.39
	B.Irving	TB	15	—	+3.4+0.42	−0.5−0.08	+2.9+0.19	0.0−0.01	+3.3+0.22
	C.Godwin	TB	5	—	0.0−0.03	+2.7+0.69	+2.7+0.54	+0.6+0.46	+2.7+0.55
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Mayfield	23	28	0	0	4	2167.7	−7.9−0.25	−5.4−0.17	−2.9−0.39

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	J.Burrow	25	35	1	1	1	2547.3	−2.6−0.07	+0.8+0.02	+0.5+0.08

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Irving	8	1	455.6	+3.6+0.44	+3.4+0.42	+0.9+0.39
	K.Gainwell	5	0	153.0	−1.1−0.22	−0.6−0.12	0.0−0.03
	B.Mayfield	5	1	306.0	−2.6−0.52	−4.2−0.83	−1.8−2.25
	T.Johnson	1	0	−4−4.0	−1.2−1.22	−0.7−0.73	−0.3−0.73
	C.Godwin	1	0	33.0	−0.1−0.13	0.0−0.03	0.0−0.03

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	C.Brown	16	1	563.5	−1.1−0.07	−0.8−0.05	−0.1−0.06
	J.Burrow	5	0	204.0	+0.5+0.10	−0.6−0.12	+0.5+0.78
	S.Perine	5	0	204.0	−0.6−0.11	0.0+0.01	−0.1−0.10
	D.Meyers	1	0	1010.0	+0.5+0.48	+0.5+0.53	+0.1+0.53

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Irving	7	7	0	486.9	−0.3−0.04	−0.5−0.08	−0.9−0.64
	E.Egbuka	6	5	0	6312.6	+4.8+0.79	+4.3+0.71	+1.3+0.69
	C.Otton	5	3	0	268.7	−0.1−0.02	+0.1+0.02	0.0+0.03
	C.Godwin	4	4	0	4010.0	+2.9+0.72	+2.7+0.69	+0.6+0.61
	T.Hurst	3	3	0	3612.0	+2.3+0.77	+2.0+0.66	+0.1+0.63
	K.Gainwell	1	1	0	33.0	−0.4−0.39	−0.1−0.06	0.0−0.06
	T.Johnson	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.60	−0.4−0.38	0.0−0.38

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CIN
	M.Gesicki	7	5	1	7815.6	+6.9+0.98	+6.3+0.90	+1.5+1.03
	C.Brown	6	5	0	224.4	−1.1−0.19	−0.6−0.10	−0.1−0.10
	T.Higgins	6	3	0	5919.7	+2.3+0.39	+3.1+0.51	+0.2+0.16
	J.Chase	4	2	0	126.0	−2.5−0.63	−1.8−0.44	−0.5−0.51
	A.Iosivas	3	2	0	126.0	−8.4−2.79	−6.7−2.23	−0.6−1.07
	S.Perine	3	3	0	3010.0	+3.1+1.04	+2.6+0.88	+0.5+0.98
	D.Sample	3	3	0	196.3	+0.9+0.29	+0.7+0.23	+0.1+0.21
	T.Hudson	1	1	0	44.0	−0.1−0.06	−0.2−0.16	0.0−0.16
	D.Meyers	1	1	0	1818.0	+1.0+1.03	+0.9+0.86	+0.1+0.86