SF 27, LA 7 — week 1, 2026

27 at 7

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

SF season | LA season

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
LA	65	7	2904.5	−14.4−0.221	−9.6−0.148	−10.6−0.163	+1.0+0.015	−0.6−0.036
SF	70	27	3795.4	+9.7+0.139	+10.3+0.147	+11.4+0.163	−1.1−0.016	+3.6+0.176
NET	−5	−20	−89−1.0	−24.1−0.360	−19.9−0.294	−22.0−0.326	+2.1+0.032	−4.1−0.212
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is LA minus SF.

Game Timeline

SF at LA. SF won by 20. Two panels. Top: LA's win probability across 147 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 0%; LA was favored on 22% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at SF by 20.5 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +11% at play 44, B.Purdy pass short right intended for G.Kittle — INTERCEPTED; -14% at play 60, B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39… — TOUCHDOWN; -9% at play 100, M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain. The Replay….

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	B.Purdy	SF	39	+6.5+0.19	+2.6+0.51	—	+9.0+0.23	+2.7+0.22	+8.0+0.21
	M.Evans	SF	7	—	—	+6.4+0.91	+6.4+0.91	+2.3+0.89	+8.2+1.17
	D.Samuel	SF	8	—	+0.6+0.57	+3.2+0.46	+3.8+0.47	+0.7+0.29	+3.3+0.41
	D.Robinson	SF	3	—	—	+3.4+1.13	+3.4+1.13	+1.3+1.13	+3.0+0.98
	K.Williams	LA	14	—	+1.7+0.15	+0.5+0.18	+2.2+0.16	+1.1+0.24	+1.6+0.11
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SF
	B.Purdy	25	34	3	1	0	2056.0	+4.8+0.14	+6.5+0.19	+2.2+0.20

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LA
	M.Stafford	15	25	0	1	0	1556.2	−11.2−0.45	−7.4−0.30	−0.8−0.13
	S.Bennett	2	3	0	0	0	134.3	+0.2+0.06	−0.2−0.08	0.0−0.10

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SF
	K.Black	14	0	654.6	+0.3+0.02	+0.3+0.02	+0.4+0.12
	C.McCaffrey	10	0	686.8	+2.7+0.27	+2.2+0.22	+0.8+0.31
	B.Purdy	5	0	295.8	+3.2+0.64	+2.6+0.51	+0.4+0.44
	D.Samuel	1	0	1212.0	+0.4+0.38	+0.6+0.57	+0.2+0.57

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LA
	K.Williams	11	1	413.7	+1.1+0.10	+1.7+0.15	+0.9+0.24
	B.Corum	10	0	545.4	+0.8+0.08	+1.2+0.12	+0.5+0.15
	R.Rivers	5	0	193.8	−2.7−0.55	−3.4−0.69	0.0+0.08
	M.Stafford	2	0	−1−0.5	−3.8−1.91	−3.6−1.82	−1.2−1.73
	S.Bennett	1	0	99.0	+0.8+0.83	+0.6+0.65	0.0+0.65

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SF
	C.McCaffrey	8	5	0	204.0	−4.9−0.61	−3.6−0.45	−0.5−0.24
	M.Evans	7	6	1	498.2	+8.2+1.17	+6.4+0.91	+2.3+0.89
	D.Samuel	7	6	1	488.0	+2.9+0.42	+3.2+0.46	+0.5+0.24
	G.Kittle	5	2	0	126.0	−5.6−1.12	−3.8−0.77	−1.5−0.75
	D.Robinson	3	2	1	5025.0	+3.0+0.98	+3.4+1.13	+1.3+1.13
	L.Farrell	2	2	0	199.5	+1.5+0.76	+1.1+0.56	+0.3+0.46
	K.Black	1	1	0	55.0	+0.2+0.18	0.0+0.02	0.0+0.02
	J.Brendel	1	1	0	22.0	−0.4−0.44	−0.2−0.23	−0.1−0.23

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LA
	P.Nacua	9	5	0	7414.8	−2.6−0.29	−1.7−0.19	−0.2−0.07
	D.Adams	6	3	0	268.7	−1.7−0.28	−1.1−0.19	−0.6−0.45
	K.Williams	3	3	0	248.0	+0.4+0.14	+0.5+0.18	+0.2+0.26
	C.Parkinson	2	1	0	66.0	−0.3−0.13	−0.3−0.13	−0.1−0.16
	T.Higbee	2	2	0	126.0	−4.7−2.37	−3.3−1.63	−0.2−1.83
	D.Allen	1	1	0	1313.0	+1.2+1.20	+1.1+1.14	+0.3+1.14
	T.Ferguson	1	0	0	0—	−2.8−2.78	−2.1−2.12	0.0−2.12
	K.Mumpfield	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.57	−0.7−0.69	0.0−0.69
	J.Whittington	1	1	0	88.0	+0.3+0.32	+0.4+0.45	0.0+0.45
	R.Rivers	1	1	0	55.0	+0.4+0.44	0.00.00	0.00.00