NE 10, SEA 13 — week 1, 2026

10 at 13

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
SEA	63	13	2854.5	+0.2+0.002	+1.5+0.023	+0.5+0.008	+1.0+0.015	−0.1−0.005
NE	79	10	2773.5	−2.8−0.035	−1.1−0.014	−1.6−0.021	+0.5+0.006	0.0+0.001
NET	−16	3	81.0	+2.9+0.038	+2.6+0.038	+2.2+0.029	+0.5+0.009	−0.1−0.006
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is SEA minus NE.

Game Timeline

NE at SEA. SEA won by 3. Two panels. Top: SEA's win probability across 151 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; SEA was favored on 42% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at NE by 8.5 in the third quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -10% at play 44, D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to A.Brown. PENALTY on…; +9% at play 96, D.Lock pass deep right to C.Kupp to NE 13 for 24 yards…; +26% at play 115, D.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45… — TOUCHDOWN; +34% at play 150, D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins — INTERCEPTED.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	D.Lock	SEA	25	+6.2+0.27	+2.0+1.02	—	+8.2+0.33	+2.0+0.27	+8.2+0.33
	J.Smith-Njigba	SEA	11	—	—	+6.8+0.62	+6.8+0.62	+2.1+0.60	+7.7+0.70
	M.Hollins	NE	5	—	—	+3.5+0.70	+3.5+0.70	+0.7+0.51	+2.8+0.56
	D.Maye	NE	43	−3.0−0.08	+6.1+0.87	—	+3.1+0.07	+1.3+0.09	+2.7+0.06
	C.Kupp	SEA	3	—	—	+1.7+0.58	+1.7+0.58	+0.4+0.40	+1.7+0.57
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	D.Maye	23	33	1	3	3	1785.4	−4.6−0.13	−3.0−0.08	−0.7−0.06

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SEA
	D.Lock	16	22	1	0	1	1878.5	+6.4+0.28	+6.2+0.27	+1.6+0.23
	S.Darnold	1	2	0	0	1	136.5	−2.1−0.69	−1.3−0.44	−0.5−0.43

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	R.Stevenson	18	0	512.8	−8.1−0.45	−5.0−0.28	−1.8−0.29
	D.Maye	7	0	476.7	+7.3+1.04	+6.1+0.87	+2.0+0.80
	C.Kiner	6	0	111.8	−2.0−0.33	−1.8−0.31	−0.6−0.30

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SEA
	J.Price	10	0	525.2	+1.0+0.10	+1.1+0.11	+0.5+0.14
	G.Holani	8	0	293.6	−2.1−0.27	−1.4−0.18	−0.5−0.17
	E.Wilson	2	0	31.5	−1.9−0.95	−1.5−0.76	−0.5−0.69
	D.Lock	2	0	136.5	+1.7+0.87	+2.0+1.02	+0.4+1.33

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NE
	D.Douglas	7	5	0	204.0	+0.5+0.07	+0.2+0.02	+0.1+0.04
	R.Stevenson	6	5	0	448.8	−0.1−0.02	−0.2−0.04	−0.1−0.05
	M.Hollins	5	4	0	5112.8	+2.8+0.56	+3.5+0.70	+0.7+0.51
	A.Brown	4	3	0	268.7	+1.3+0.31	+1.6+0.40	+0.7+0.46
	H.Henry	3	3	0	268.7	+0.1+0.03	−0.2−0.07	0.0−0.03
	R.Doubs	3	0	0	0—	−6.0−1.99	−4.3−1.45	−1.1−1.32
	L.Larison	2	2	0	94.5	+0.1+0.04	−0.2−0.09	0.0+0.05
	E.Raridon	1	1	1	22.0	+0.8+0.84	+0.7+0.65	+0.2+0.65

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
SEA
	J.Smith-Njigba	11	8	1	12215.2	+7.7+0.70	+6.8+0.62	+2.1+0.60
	R.Shaheed	3	1	0	44.0	−2.9−0.97	−2.0−0.66	−0.6−0.66
	C.Kupp	3	2	0	3517.5	+1.7+0.57	+1.7+0.58	+0.4+0.40
	B.Russell	2	2	0	2010.0	+1.1+0.54	+1.1+0.56	+0.3+0.53
	A.Barner	2	2	0	136.5	+0.9+0.44	+0.7+0.37	+0.2+0.36
	J.Price	2	2	0	63.0	−0.7−0.35	−0.4−0.18	−0.1−0.18
	G.Holani	1	0	0	0—	0.0−0.03	−0.6−0.61	−0.2−0.61