GB 22, MIN 39 — week 1, 2026

22 at 39

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
MIN	73	39	2393.3	+1.6+0.021	+7.5+0.102	+9.9+0.136	−2.4−0.033	+0.8+0.034
GB	78	22	4195.4	−11.5−0.147	−5.2−0.066	−5.8−0.074	+0.6+0.008	+1.5+0.075
NET	−5	17	−180−2.1	+13.1+0.169	+12.6+0.168	+15.7+0.210	−3.1−0.041	−0.7−0.041
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is MIN minus GB.

Game Timeline

GB at MIN. MIN won by 17. Two panels. Top: MIN's win probability across 171 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; MIN was favored on 24% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at MIN by 17.0 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -17% at play 22, J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards — TOUCHDOWN; +12% at play 76, C.Wentz pass deep left to J.Jefferson for 39… — TOUCHDOWN; -11% at play 124, J.Love pass deep middle to M.Golden to MIN 26 for 42 yards; +14% at play 147, J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards — FUMBLES.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	J.Jefferson	MIN	9	—	—	+10.6+1.18	+10.6+1.18	+2.5+0.92	+11.4+1.27
	C.Watson	GB	8	—	—	+6.8+0.85	+6.8+0.85	+3.6+1.60	+6.9+0.86
	C.Wentz	MIN	27	+6.1+0.28	+0.1+0.02	—	+6.2+0.23	+0.5+0.07	+4.0+0.15
	J.Smith	GB	3	—	—	+3.1+1.04	+3.1+1.04	+0.5+0.73	+4.0+1.32
	T.Hockenson	MIN	5	—	—	+2.7+0.54	+2.7+0.54	+0.7+0.45	+3.2+0.63
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	J.Love	21	42	2	1	4	3879.2	−2.7−0.06	+1.4+0.03	+2.8+0.27

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	C.Wentz	12	19	3	0	3	1337.0	+3.9+0.18	+6.1+0.28	+0.9+0.14
	K.Murray	3	5	0	1	0	183.6	−4.5−0.89	−1.8−0.36	−0.7−0.36

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	M.Lloyd	13	0	372.8	−3.8−0.30	−2.4−0.18	−0.7−0.19
	C.Brooks	7	0	294.1	−0.8−0.12	−0.4−0.06	+0.1+0.04
	J.Love	1	0	00.0	−4.4−4.35	−2.9−2.91	−0.7−2.91

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	J.Mason	15	1	593.9	−3.0−0.20	−0.6−0.04	−0.3−0.07
	A.Jones	12	1	403.3	−1.0−0.09	−0.9−0.07	−0.2−0.06
	C.Wentz	5	0	−1−0.2	0.0+0.01	+0.1+0.02	−0.4−0.36
	K.Murray	2	0	94.5	+2.3+1.15	+1.7+0.85	+0.5+0.75

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	M.Golden	12	6	0	9515.8	+0.8+0.06	+1.1+0.10	+0.2+0.08
	C.Watson	8	6	2	14724.5	+6.9+0.86	+6.8+0.85	+3.6+1.60
	J.Reed	7	3	0	206.7	−1.2−0.17	−1.8−0.25	−0.4−0.38
	T.Kraft	6	3	0	6521.7	+1.8+0.30	+2.1+0.36	+0.7+0.34
	J.Smith	3	2	0	5025.0	+4.0+1.32	+3.1+1.04	+0.5+0.73
	C.Brooks	1	0	0	0—	−0.9−0.91	−0.7−0.66	−0.2−0.66
	B.Melton	1	1	0	1010.0	+1.0+1.00	+1.0+1.00	+0.4+1.00
	M.Lloyd	1	0	0	0—	−0.5−0.51	−0.4−0.42	0.0−0.42
	S.Moore	1	0	0	0—	−3.7−3.66	−1.4−1.39	0.0−1.39

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
MIN
	J.Jefferson	9	8	2	9211.5	+11.4+1.27	+10.6+1.18	+2.5+0.92
	T.Hockenson	5	4	1	369.0	+3.2+0.63	+2.7+0.54	+0.7+0.45
	J.Oliver	4	2	0	2211.0	0.0−0.01	+0.1+0.04	0.0+0.01
	J.Addison	2	0	0	0—	−3.3−1.64	−1.9−0.95	−0.6−0.92
	J.Jennings	1	0	0	0—	−4.1−4.07	−1.3−1.28	−0.5−1.28
	A.Jones	1	0	0	0—	−0.9−0.88	−0.7−0.66	−0.2−0.66
	D.Dallas	1	1	0	11.0	−1.6−1.63	−1.1−1.06	−0.3−1.06