LAC 16, BUF 24 — week 3, 2026

16 at 24

Week 3 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
BUF	70	24	3505.0	−7.9−0.113	−1.2−0.018	−1.7−0.025	+0.5+0.007	−1.1−0.049
LAC	79	16	3484.4	−10.3−0.131	−7.7−0.097	−9.8−0.125	+2.1+0.027	−2.1−0.081
NET	−9	8	20.6	+2.4+0.018	+6.5+0.080	+8.1+0.100	−1.7−0.020	+1.0+0.032
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is BUF minus LAC.

Game Timeline

LAC at BUF. BUF won by 8. Two panels. Top: BUF's win probability across 163 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; BUF was favored on 29% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at LAC by 12.6 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -8% at play 29, J.Allen pass short middle intended for D.Moore — INTERCEPTED; +10% at play 75, J.Allen pass deep right to K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards; -10% at play 93, J.Herbert pass deep left to L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for…; +20% at play 127, J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43… — TOUCHDOWN.

Excitement

1.0 bits

#10 of 16 this week

53rd percentile since 2006

Tension

0.83

#6 of 16 this week

73rd percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

441 pts

#8 of 16 this week

64th percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

74%

#5 of 16 this week

78th percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#8 of 16 this week

68th percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

18%

#3 of 16 this week

83rd percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q1 3:31	BUF	1st & 20	BUF 34	(3:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).	−3.99	−3.89	−0.10	−4.58	−8.5%	1.3×
2	Q2 10:26	LAC	4th & 3	BUF 27	(10:26) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−3.80	−3.84	+0.04	−3.64	−4.9%	1.0×
3	Q4 13:38	LAC	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (76-J.Alt).	−3.78	−4.80	+1.02	−5.82	−18.7%	1.1×
4	Q4 11:15	BUF	4th & 6	LAC 43	(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.	+3.36	+3.38	−0.02	+4.36	+20.3%	1.2×
5	Q2 0:26	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 38	(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.71	+2.61	+0.10	+3.60	+9.7%	1.3×
6	Q4 15:00	BUF	3rd & 13	BUF 34	(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.	−2.59	−3.53	+0.94	−4.16	−10.9%	1.3×
7	Q4 0:31	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 32	(:31) 17-J.Allen kneels to LAC 33 for -1 yards.	−2.33	−1.67	−0.66	−1.97	+0.0%	0.0×
8	Q3 9:31	LAC	3rd & 15	BUF 25	(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [9-B.Chubb].	+2.31	+2.24	+0.07	+2.87	+9.9%	1.4×
9	Q1 14:53	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(14:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 47 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). FUMBLES (92-J.Eboigbe), RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 47.	−2.26	−4.33	+2.06	−5.40	−5.8%	1.4×
10	Q1 10:37	LAC	3rd & 1	BUF 1	(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.16	+2.39	−0.22	+1.34	+6.1%	1.4×
11	Q4 3:23	BUF	3rd & 10	LAC 19	(3:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at LAC 3 for 16 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.09	+2.00	+0.09	+2.81	+4.5%	0.4×
12	Q2 12:54	LAC	3rd & 12	LAC 40	(12:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to BUF 47 for 13 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 8-T.Bernard). Penalty on BUF-9-B.Chubb, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.86	+1.89	−0.02	+2.49	+3.7%	1.1×
13	Q1 8:21	BUF	3rd & 9	BUF 47	(8:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -13 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−1.86	−1.93	+0.07	−2.17	−5.6%	1.3×
14	Q2 4:59	LAC	3rd & 9	50	(4:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 44 for -6 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−1.82	−1.78	−0.04	−1.80	−5.3%	1.2×
15	Q4 5:14	LAC	4th & 10	LAC 45	(5:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal [91-E.Oliver].	−1.78	−2.12	+0.35	−2.57	−8.3%	0.8×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q1 3:31	BUF	1st & 20	BUF 34	(3:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).	−3.99	−3.89	−0.10	−4.58	−8.5%	1.3×
2	Q4 13:38	LAC	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (76-J.Alt).	−3.78	−4.80	+1.02	−5.82	−18.7%	1.1×
3	Q4 11:15	BUF	4th & 6	LAC 43	(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.	+3.36	+3.38	−0.02	+4.36	+20.3%	1.2×
4	Q2 10:26	LAC	4th & 3	BUF 27	(10:26) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−3.80	−3.84	+0.04	−3.64	−4.9%	1.0×
5	Q2 0:26	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 38	(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.71	+2.61	+0.10	+3.60	+9.7%	1.3×
6	Q4 15:00	BUF	3rd & 13	BUF 34	(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.	−2.59	−3.53	+0.94	−4.16	−10.9%	1.3×
7	Q1 14:53	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(14:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 47 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). FUMBLES (92-J.Eboigbe), RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 47.	−2.26	−4.33	+2.06	−5.40	−5.8%	1.4×
8	Q3 9:31	LAC	3rd & 15	BUF 25	(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [9-B.Chubb].	+2.31	+2.24	+0.07	+2.87	+9.9%	1.4×
9	Q1 10:37	LAC	3rd & 1	BUF 1	(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.16	+2.39	−0.22	+1.34	+6.1%	1.4×
10	Q1 8:21	BUF	3rd & 9	BUF 47	(8:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -13 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−1.86	−1.93	+0.07	−2.17	−5.6%	1.3×
11	Q3 11:46	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 49	(11:46) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris to BUF 20 for 29 yards (47-C.Benford) [15-G.Rousseau]. Penalty on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.64	+1.69	−0.05	+1.94	+6.9%	1.4×
12	Q1 4:29	BUF	4th & 1	BUF 43	(4:29) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 44 for 1 yard (3-D.James).	+1.70	+1.69	+0.01	+2.15	+4.6%	1.3×
13	Q2 4:59	LAC	3rd & 9	50	(4:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 44 for -6 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−1.82	−1.78	−0.04	−1.80	−5.3%	1.2×
14	Q2 12:54	LAC	3rd & 12	LAC 40	(12:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to BUF 47 for 13 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 8-T.Bernard). Penalty on BUF-9-B.Chubb, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.86	+1.89	−0.02	+2.49	+3.7%	1.1×
15	Q2 7:06	BUF	3rd & 6	LAC 27	(7:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson ran ob at LAC 11 for 16 yards (22-G.Smith). LAC-92-J.Eboigbe was injured during the play.	+1.61	+1.55	+0.05	+1.84	+5.0%	1.2×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q4 11:15	BUF	4th & 6	LAC 43	(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.	+3.36	+3.38	−0.02	+4.36	+20.3%	1.2×
2	Q4 13:38	LAC	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (76-J.Alt).	−3.78	−4.80	+1.02	−5.82	−18.7%	1.1×
3	Q4 15:00	BUF	3rd & 13	BUF 34	(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.	−2.59	−3.53	+0.94	−4.16	−10.9%	1.3×
4	Q3 9:31	LAC	3rd & 15	BUF 25	(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [9-B.Chubb].	+2.31	+2.24	+0.07	+2.87	+9.9%	1.4×
5	Q2 0:26	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 38	(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.71	+2.61	+0.10	+3.60	+9.7%	1.3×
6	Q4 9:36	BUF	2nd & 26	LAC 40	(9:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 27. PENALTY on LAC-24-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (20-C.Hart; 90-A.Mesidor). PENALTY on LAC-24-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 32.	+1.43	+1.45	−0.01	+1.92	+8.7%	1.3×
7	Q1 3:31	BUF	1st & 20	BUF 34	(3:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).	−3.99	−3.89	−0.10	−4.58	−8.5%	1.3×
8	Q4 5:14	LAC	4th & 10	LAC 45	(5:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal [91-E.Oliver].	−1.78	−2.12	+0.35	−2.57	−8.3%	0.8×
9	Q4 11:23	BUF	3rd & 6	LAC 43	(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore.	−1.27	−1.27	0.00	−1.71	−7.7%	1.3×
10	Q4 12:41	BUF	3rd & 5	BUF 47	(12:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to LAC 47 for 6 yards (43-T.Dye).	+1.23	+1.25	−0.02	+1.43	+7.3%	1.3×
11	Q3 11:46	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 49	(11:46) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris to BUF 20 for 29 yards (47-C.Benford) [15-G.Rousseau]. Penalty on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.64	+1.69	−0.05	+1.94	+6.9%	1.4×
12	Q3 1:44	LAC	4th & 10	LAC 30	(1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.	+1.06	+0.27	+0.78	0.00	+6.5%	1.4×
13	Q4 5:18	LAC	3rd & 10	LAC 45	(5:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.	−1.19	−1.19	0.00	−1.36	−6.4%	1.0×
14	Q4 6:02	LAC	2nd & 7	LAC 48	(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 45 for -3 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−0.94	−0.96	+0.02	−1.12	−6.1%	1.1×
15	Q1 10:37	LAC	3rd & 1	BUF 1	(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.16	+2.39	−0.22	+1.34	+6.1%	1.4×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 163 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	BUF	Kickoff	LAC 35	11-C.Dicker kicks 61 yards from LAC 35 to BUF 4. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 43 for 39 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).	+0.82	+0.92	−0.10	+1.18	+2.1%	1.4×
Q1 14:53	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 43	(14:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 47 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). FUMBLES (92-J.Eboigbe), RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 47.	−2.26	−4.33	+2.06	−5.40	−5.8%	1.4×
Q1 14:44	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 47	(14:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on BUF-9-B.Chubb, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 47 - No Play.	+0.90	+0.89	+0.01	+1.05	+2.3%	1.4×
Q1 14:36	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 32	(14:36) 8-O.Hampton right guard to BUF 25 for 7 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	+0.62	+0.42	+0.20	+0.42	+1.7%	1.4×
Q1 13:58	LAC	2nd & 3	BUF 25	(13:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 30-A.Ingold (1-M.Hairston).	−0.46	−0.49	+0.03	−0.65	−1.2%	1.4×
Q1 13:52	LAC	3rd & 3	BUF 25	(13:52) 10-J.Herbert right end to BUF 18 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+1.04	+0.83	+0.21	+1.23	+2.9%	1.4×
Q1 13:11	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 18	(13:11) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ingold to BUF 13 for 5 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	+0.27	+0.11	+0.16	+0.06	+0.9%	1.4×
Q1 12:36	LAC	2nd & 5	BUF 13	(12:36) 28-K.Vidal left guard to BUF 7 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).	+0.67	+0.53	+0.14	+0.59	+1.9%	1.4×
Q1 11:58	LAC	1st & 7	BUF 7	(11:58) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to BUF 3 for 4 yards (97-G.Gaines; 42-D.Williams).	+0.25	+0.15	+0.10	+0.22	+0.9%	1.4×
Q1 11:17	LAC	2nd & 3	BUF 3	(11:17) (Shotgun) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton right end to BUF 1 for 2 yards (42-D.Williams; 23-D.Alford).	−0.21	−0.26	+0.05	+0.02	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 10:37	LAC	3rd & 1	BUF 1	(10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	+2.16	+2.39	−0.22	+1.34	+6.1%	1.4×
Q1 10:33	LAC	Try	BUF 15	11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−0.21	−0.84	+0.63	+0.07	−0.3%	1.3×
Q1 10:33	BUF	Kickoff	LAC 35	11-C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to BUF 7. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 30 for 23 yards (43-T.Dye).	−0.06	+0.04	−0.10	+0.33	−0.2%	1.3×
Q1 10:26	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 30	(10:26) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at BUF 38 for 8 yards (27-R.Mickens) [52-K.Mack].	+0.49	+0.50	−0.01	+0.53	+1.6%	1.3×
Q1 9:52	BUF	2nd & 2	BUF 38	(9:52) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 46 for 8 yards (20-C.Hart).	+0.34	+0.35	−0.01	+0.53	+1.0%	1.3×
Q1 9:11	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 46	(9:11) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 17-J.Allen to BUF 47 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−0.34	−0.36	+0.02	−0.50	−1.1%	1.4×
Q1 8:27	BUF	2nd & 9	BUF 47	(8:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid (23-T.Jefferson).	−0.64	−0.65	+0.01	−0.86	−1.8%	1.3×
Q1 8:21	BUF	3rd & 9	BUF 47	(8:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -13 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−1.86	−1.93	+0.07	−2.17	−5.6%	1.3×
Q1 7:37	BUF	4th & 22	BUF 34	(7:37) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-D.Davis to LAC 29 for 14 yards (33-T.Couch). ** Injury Update: BUF-42-D.Williams has returned to the game.	−0.57	−0.23	−0.34	−0.45	−0.5%	1.2×
Q1 7:27	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 29	(7:27) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 36 for 7 yards (1-M.Hairston).	+0.29	+0.34	−0.05	+0.38	+0.4%	1.2×
Q1 6:54	LAC	2nd & 3	LAC 36	(6:54) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 30 for -6 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−1.35	−1.29	−0.05	−1.67	−2.7%	1.2×
Q1 6:14	LAC	3rd & 9	LAC 30	(6:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 86-O.Gadsden [91-E.Oliver].	−1.08	−1.07	−0.01	−1.31	−3.0%	1.2×
Q1 6:09	LAC	4th & 9	LAC 30	(6:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 34 for 8 yards (32-K.Williamson).	−0.95	−0.55	−0.39	−0.52	−1.6%	1.3×
Q1 5:58	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 34	(5:58) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 0-K.Coleman.	−0.44	−0.45	+0.01	−0.54	−1.3%	1.3×
Q1 5:51	BUF	2nd & 10	BUF 34	(5:51) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 43 for 9 yards (0-D.Henley).	+0.58	+0.54	+0.04	+0.82	+1.9%	1.3×
Q1 5:07	BUF	3rd & 1	BUF 43	(5:07) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 88-D.Knox. 88-D.Knox up the middle to BUF 43 for no gain (53-D.Phillips).	−1.15	−1.17	+0.03	−1.79	−3.3%	1.3×
Q1 4:29	BUF	4th & 1	BUF 43	(4:29) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 44 for 1 yard (3-D.James).	+1.70	+1.69	+0.01	+2.15	+4.6%	1.3×
Q1 3:42	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 44	(3:42) 4-J.Cook left tackle to BUF 49 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 44 - No Play.	−0.73	−0.74	+0.01	−0.89	−2.7%	1.4×
Q1 3:31	BUF	1st & 20	BUF 34	(3:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).	−3.99	−3.89	−0.10	−4.58	−8.5%	1.3×
Q1 3:23	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 43	(3:23) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to BUF 41 for 2 yards (15-G.Rousseau; 42-D.Williams).	−0.36	−0.28	−0.08	−0.30	−0.7%	1.1×
Q1 2:51	LAC	2nd & 8	BUF 41	(2:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to BUF 35 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop). PENALTY on BUF-15-G.Rousseau, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 35.	+1.51	+1.57	−0.06	+1.97	+2.6%	1.2×
Q1 2:29	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 20	(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to BUF 17 for 3 yards (24-C.Bishop).	−0.18	−0.12	−0.05	−0.14	−0.2%	1.1×
Q1 1:56	LAC	2nd & 7	BUF 17	(1:56) 8-O.Hampton left guard to BUF 15 for 2 yards (42-D.Williams).	−0.35	−0.30	−0.05	−0.40	−0.5%	1.1×
Q1 1:19	LAC	3rd & 5	BUF 15	(1:19) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right end to BUF 13 for 2 yards (96-D.Walker; 23-D.Alford).	−0.58	−0.54	−0.03	−1.17	−1.3%	1.1×
Q1 0:37	LAC	4th & 3	BUF 13	(:37) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−0.74	−1.01	+0.26	+0.18	+0.9%	1.1×
Q1 0:34	BUF	Kickoff	LAC 35	11-C.Dicker kicks 63 yards from LAC 35 to BUF 2. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 30 yards (53-D.Phillips; 48-B.Dupree).	−0.09	+0.24	−0.33	+0.48	−0.2%	1.1×
Q1 0:28	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 32	(:28) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 35 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor).	−0.14	−0.17	+0.04	−0.42	−0.3%	1.1×
Q2 15:00	BUF	2nd & 7	BUF 35	(15:00) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at LAC 10. 22-G.Smith to LAC 10 for no gain (2-D.Moore).	−0.72	−1.21	+0.49	−1.22	+0.7%	1.1×
Q2 14:49	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 10	(14:49) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right tackle pushed ob at LAC 17 for 7 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+0.30	+0.31	−0.01	+0.36	+1.4%	1.1×
Q2 14:21	LAC	2nd & 3	LAC 17	(14:21) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ingold to LAC 42 for 25 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 42-D.Williams).	+1.41	+1.42	−0.01	+1.71	+2.5%	1.1×
Q2 13:37	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 42	(13:37) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 40 for -2 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−0.63	−0.64	+0.01	−0.88	−1.0%	1.0×
Q2 12:59	LAC	2nd & 12	LAC 40	(12:59) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris (47-C.Benford).	−0.62	−0.62	0.00	−0.87	−1.3%	1.1×
Q2 12:54	LAC	3rd & 12	LAC 40	(12:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to BUF 47 for 13 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 8-T.Bernard). Penalty on BUF-9-B.Chubb, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.86	+1.89	−0.02	+2.49	+3.7%	1.1×
Q2 12:37	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 47	(12:37) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.49	−0.8%	1.0×
Q2 12:29	LAC	2nd & 10	BUF 47	(12:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston pushed ob at BUF 34 for 13 yards (47-C.Benford; 23-D.Alford).	+1.22	+1.24	−0.02	+1.29	+1.7%	1.0×
Q2 11:53	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 34	(11:53) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to BUF 33 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker).	−0.29	−0.31	+0.02	−0.32	−0.4%	1.0×
Q2 11:09	LAC	2nd & 9	BUF 33	(11:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end ran ob at BUF 27 for 6 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).	+0.28	+0.26	+0.02	+0.24	+0.5%	1.0×
Q2 10:31	LAC	3rd & 3	BUF 27	(10:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 15-L.McConkey.	−0.77	−0.77	0.00	−1.47	−1.6%	0.9×
Q2 10:26	LAC	4th & 3	BUF 27	(10:26) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−3.80	−3.84	+0.04	−3.64	−4.9%	1.0×
Q2 10:22	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 35	(10:22) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 40 for 5 yards (43-T.Dye).	+0.11	+0.05	+0.06	+0.13	+0.5%	1.1×
Q2 9:48	BUF	2nd & 5	BUF 40	(9:48) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to LAC 46 for 14 yards (0-D.Henley).	+1.04	+0.99	+0.05	+1.07	+3.0%	1.1×
Q2 9:06	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 46	(9:06) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LAC 31 for 15 yards (23-T.Jefferson).	+0.90	+0.89	+0.01	+0.93	+3.3%	1.2×
Q2 8:42	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 31	(8:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play.	−0.49	−0.53	+0.04	−0.63	−1.8%	1.3×
Q2 8:22	BUF	1st & 15	LAC 36	(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LAC 30 for 6 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).	+0.25	+0.22	+0.04	+0.20	+0.9%	1.2×
Q2 7:46	BUF	2nd & 9	LAC 30	(7:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to LAC 27 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley).	−0.15	−0.18	+0.03	−0.27	−0.6%	1.3×
Q2 7:06	BUF	3rd & 6	LAC 27	(7:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson ran ob at LAC 11 for 16 yards (22-G.Smith). LAC-92-J.Eboigbe was injured during the play.	+1.61	+1.55	+0.05	+1.84	+5.0%	1.2×
Q2 6:50	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 11	(6:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to LAC 10 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−0.26	−0.27	+0.01	−0.48	−0.9%	1.3×
Q2 6:14	BUF	2nd & 9	LAC 10	(6:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (26-D.Jackson).	−0.55	−0.55	0.00	−0.75	−1.7%	1.3×
Q2 6:10	BUF	3rd & 9	LAC 10	(6:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore.	−0.87	−0.87	0.00	−0.86	−2.4%	1.3×
Q2 6:05	BUF	4th & 9	LAC 10	(6:05) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	−0.20	−0.04	−0.17	+0.12	−2.3%	1.2×
Q2 6:02	LAC	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at LAC 32 for 28 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).	+0.82	+0.82	−0.01	+0.49	+2.3%	1.2×
Q2 5:56	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 32	(5:56) 34-K.Mitchell left end ran ob at LAC 49 for 17 yards (94-L.Jackson). BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson was injured during the play.	+0.87	+0.92	−0.05	+1.07	+1.6%	1.1×
Q2 5:35	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 49	(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 8-O.Hampton (94-L.Jackson).	−0.47	−0.46	−0.01	−0.50	−1.2%	1.1×
Q2 5:29	LAC	2nd & 10	LAC 49	(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter; 9-B.Chubb). ** Injury Update: BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson has returned to the game.	−0.62	−0.58	−0.04	−0.75	−1.5%	1.1×
Q2 4:59	LAC	3rd & 9	50	(4:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 44 for -6 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−1.82	−1.78	−0.04	−1.80	−5.3%	1.2×
Q2 4:15	LAC	4th & 15	LAC 44	(4:15) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.	+0.08	+0.02	+0.06	−0.01	+2.4%	1.3×
Q2 4:05	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 20	(4:05) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 23 for 3 yards (53-D.Phillips).	−0.15	−0.21	+0.06	−0.33	−0.8%	1.2×
Q2 3:27	BUF	2nd & 7	BUF 23	(3:27) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 26 for 3 yards (3-D.James).	−0.20	−0.27	+0.07	+0.08	−1.0%	1.2×
Q2 2:47	BUF	3rd & 4	BUF 26	(2:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to BUF 39 for 13 yards (0-D.Henley). ** Injury Update: LAC-92-J.Eboigbe has returned to the game.	+1.50	+1.41	+0.09	+1.40	+5.8%	1.2×
Q2 2:00	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 39	(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard to BUF 42 for 3 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−0.13	−0.20	+0.08	−0.33	−0.6%	1.3×
Q2 1:20	BUF	2nd & 7	BUF 42	(1:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cook.	−0.62	−0.63	+0.01	−0.37	−2.4%	1.3×
Q2 1:16	BUF	3rd & 7	BUF 42	(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore to LAC 48 for 10 yards (4-T.Still).	+1.52	+1.50	+0.02	+1.18	+5.7%	1.2×
Q2 0:50	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 48	(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore to LAC 40 for 8 yards (3-D.James).	+0.53	+0.55	−0.01	+0.31	+1.1%	1.3×
Q2 0:45	BUF	2nd & 2	LAC 40	(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to LAC 38 for 2 yards (27-R.Mickens).	+0.05	+0.03	+0.02	−0.16	+0.2%	1.3×
Q2 0:26	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 38	(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to LAC 1 for 37 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.71	+2.61	+0.10	+3.60	+9.7%	1.3×
Q2 0:19	BUF	1st & 1	LAC 1	(:19) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, declined.	+0.32	+1.53	−1.20	+1.10	+1.3%	1.4×
Q2 0:16	BUF	Try	LAC 15	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	+0.11	−0.44	+0.55	+0.07	+2.5%	1.4×
Q2 0:16	LAC	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35.	+0.39	+0.54	−0.15	+0.12	+1.8%	1.4×
Q2 0:16	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 35	(:16) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left guard to LAC 44 for 9 yards (23-D.Alford; 1-M.Hairston).	+0.68	+0.69	−0.02	+0.24	+2.9%	1.4×
Q2 0:11	LAC	2nd & 1	LAC 44	(:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 28-K.Vidal [9-B.Chubb].	−0.64	−0.64	−0.01	−0.19	−2.8%	1.4×
Q2 0:04	LAC	3rd & 1	LAC 44	(:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston pushed ob at BUF 35 for 21 yards (3-D.Hamlin).	−0.43	−0.60	+0.17	−0.25	−1.9%	1.4×
Q3 15:00	LAC	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 28 for 24 yards (44-J.Andreessen; 28-S.Franklin).	−0.01	+0.15	−0.16	+0.13	−0.0%	1.4×
Q3 14:54	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 28	(14:54) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 34 for 6 yards (94-L.Jackson; 9-B.Chubb).	+0.12	+0.18	−0.05	+0.33	+0.6%	1.4×
Q3 14:18	LAC	2nd & 4	LAC 34	(14:18) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 37 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams).	−0.15	−0.09	−0.06	+0.08	−0.7%	1.4×
Q3 13:41	LAC	3rd & 1	LAC 37	(13:41) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 38 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter).	+0.39	+0.46	−0.06	+0.37	+1.8%	1.4×
Q3 13:06	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 38	(13:06) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 40 for 2 yards (94-L.Jackson; 90-D.Carter).	−0.32	−0.25	−0.07	−0.42	−1.5%	1.4×
Q3 12:27	LAC	2nd & 8	LAC 40	(12:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey to BUF 49 for 11 yards (24-C.Bishop).	+0.93	+1.00	−0.08	+1.36	+4.2%	1.4×
Q3 11:46	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 49	(11:46) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris to BUF 20 for 29 yards (47-C.Benford) [15-G.Rousseau]. Penalty on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Defensive Offside, declined.	+1.64	+1.69	−0.05	+1.94	+6.9%	1.4×
Q3 11:30	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 20	(11:30) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton up the middle to BUF 16 for 4 yards (42-D.Williams; 97-G.Gaines).	+0.01	+0.03	−0.02	−0.13	+0.1%	1.4×
Q3 10:52	LAC	2nd & 6	BUF 16	(10:52) (Shotgun) 15-L.McConkey left end to BUF 18 for -2 yards (42-D.Williams). PENALTY on LAC-86-O.Gadsden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 16 - No Play.	−1.00	−0.96	−0.04	−1.12	−4.2%	1.4×
Q3 10:26	LAC	2nd & 16	BUF 26	(10:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right tackle to BUF 17 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard). PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No Play.	−0.55	−0.55	0.00	−0.87	−2.3%	1.4×
Q3 10:08	LAC	2nd & 26	BUF 36	(10:08) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at BUF 25 for 11 yards (91-E.Oliver).	+0.15	+0.17	−0.01	+0.29	+0.6%	1.4×
Q3 9:31	LAC	3rd & 15	BUF 25	(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [9-B.Chubb].	+2.31	+2.24	+0.07	+2.87	+9.9%	1.4×
Q3 9:00	LAC	1st & 6	BUF 6	(9:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF -8. Touchback. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at BUF 6 - No Play.	+0.40	+0.38	+0.02	+0.49	+1.7%	1.3×
Q3 8:54	LAC	1st & 3	BUF 3	(8:54) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to BUF 1 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 94-L.Jackson).	+0.05	+0.03	+0.02	+0.05	+0.4%	1.3×
Q3 8:19	LAC	2nd & 1	BUF 1	(8:19) PENALTY on LAC-40-H.Rucci, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 1 - No Play.	−0.78	−0.75	−0.02	−1.08	−3.2%	1.3×
Q3 8:00	LAC	2nd & 6	BUF 6	(8:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris to BUF 6 for no gain (42-D.Williams).	−0.59	−0.60	+0.01	−0.92	−2.4%	1.3×
Q3 7:13	LAC	3rd & 6	BUF 6	(7:13) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 6 - No Play.	−0.44	−0.42	−0.02	−0.59	−1.9%	1.3×
Q3 7:00	LAC	3rd & 11	BUF 11	(7:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to BUF 3 for 8 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 23-D.Alford).	−0.29	−0.35	+0.06	−0.57	−1.3%	1.4×
Q3 6:15	LAC	4th & 3	BUF 3	(6:15) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−0.70	−1.03	+0.33	+0.04	−2.7%	1.4×
Q3 6:12	BUF	Kickoff	LAC 35	11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35.	+0.27	+0.26	+0.02	+0.57	+1.5%	1.4×
Q3 6:12	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 35	(6:12) 4-J.Cook left tackle ran ob at 50 for 15 yards (23-T.Jefferson).	+0.77	+0.81	−0.03	+1.03	+3.9%	1.4×
Q3 5:36	BUF	1st & 10	50	(5:36) 4-J.Cook right guard to LAC 48 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 53-D.Phillips).	−0.29	−0.27	−0.02	−0.50	−1.5%	1.4×
Q3 4:58	BUF	2nd & 8	LAC 48	(4:58) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox to LAC 43 for 5 yards (53-D.Phillips).	−0.09	−0.07	−0.03	−0.08	−0.5%	1.4×
Q3 4:21	BUF	3rd & 3	LAC 43	(4:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play.	−0.60	−0.61	+0.01	−0.79	−3.2%	1.4×
Q3 4:00	BUF	3rd & 8	LAC 48	(4:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to LAC 24 for 24 yards (4-T.Still; 22-G.Smith). FUMBLES (4-T.Still), RECOVERED by LAC-23-T.Jefferson at LAC 17.	−0.76	−1.52	+0.76	−1.92	−4.0%	1.4×
Q3 3:50	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 17	(3:50) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 20 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 15-G.Rousseau).	−0.19	−0.20	+0.01	−0.34	−0.9%	1.3×
Q3 3:16	LAC	2nd & 7	LAC 20	(3:16) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 30 for 10 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	+0.88	+0.88	+0.01	+1.22	+4.8%	1.3×
Q3 2:38	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 30	(2:38) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell up the middle to LAC 35 for 5 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 15-G.Rousseau). BUF-47-C.Benford was injured during the play.	+0.05	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.1%	1.3×
Q3 2:15	LAC	2nd & 5	LAC 35	(2:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.	−0.51	−0.52	+0.01	−0.50	−2.5%	1.3×
Q3 1:56	LAC	2nd & 10	LAC 30	(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston (21-D.Igbinosun).	−0.59	−0.59	0.00	−0.75	−3.2%	1.3×
Q3 1:52	LAC	3rd & 10	LAC 30	(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 86-O.Gadsden (96-D.Walker, 23-D.Alford).	−1.07	−1.07	0.00	−1.27	−6.1%	1.3×
Q3 1:44	LAC	4th & 10	LAC 30	(1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.	+1.06	+0.27	+0.78	0.00	+6.5%	1.4×
Q3 1:36	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 25	(1:36) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore to BUF 37 for 12 yards (22-G.Smith).	+0.64	+0.68	−0.04	+0.71	+3.7%	1.3×
Q3 0:56	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 37	(:56) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 38 for 1 yard (20-C.Hart; 0-D.Henley).	−0.36	−0.33	−0.04	−0.53	−2.1%	1.3×
Q3 0:18	BUF	2nd & 9	BUF 38	(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 34 for -4 yards (90-A.Mesidor).	−0.99	−0.98	−0.01	−1.41	−5.8%	1.3×
Q4 15:00	BUF	3rd & 13	BUF 34	(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.	−2.59	−3.53	+0.94	−4.16	−10.9%	1.3×
Q4 14:52	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 28	(14:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at BUF 28 for no gain (21-D.Igbinosun).	−0.44	−0.44	0.00	−0.42	−1.7%	1.1×
Q4 14:20	LAC	2nd & 10	BUF 28	(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ingold to BUF 23 for 5 yards (42-D.Williams).	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.02	+0.3%	1.1×
Q4 13:38	LAC	3rd & 5	BUF 23	(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (76-J.Alt).	−3.78	−4.80	+1.02	−5.82	−18.7%	1.1×
Q4 13:25	BUF	1st & 10	BUF 42	(13:25) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 47 for 5 yards (43-T.Dye; 22-G.Smith).	+0.06	+0.09	−0.02	+0.08	+0.3%	1.3×
Q4 12:48	BUF	2nd & 5	BUF 47	(12:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 85-J.Hawes.	−0.64	−0.64	0.00	−0.86	−3.9%	1.3×
Q4 12:41	BUF	3rd & 5	BUF 47	(12:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to LAC 47 for 6 yards (43-T.Dye).	+1.23	+1.25	−0.02	+1.43	+7.3%	1.3×
Q4 12:04	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 47	(12:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard to LAC 43 for 4 yards (0-D.Henley).	−0.01	0.00	−0.01	−0.27	−0.1%	1.3×
Q4 11:26	BUF	2nd & 6	LAC 43	(11:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (43-T.Dye).	−0.69	−0.69	0.00	−0.81	−4.3%	1.3×
Q4 11:23	BUF	3rd & 6	LAC 43	(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore.	−1.27	−1.27	0.00	−1.71	−7.7%	1.3×
Q4 11:15	BUF	4th & 6	LAC 43	(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.	+3.36	+3.38	−0.02	+4.36	+20.3%	1.2×
Q4 11:04	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 24	(11:04) 4-J.Cook left guard to LAC 20 for 4 yards (91-N.Barrett).	+0.07	+0.06	+0.01	−0.22	+0.5%	1.3×
Q4 10:30	BUF	2nd & 6	LAC 20	(10:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LAC 4 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20 - No Play.	−0.97	−0.97	−0.01	−1.17	−5.8%	1.2×
Q4 10:00	BUF	2nd & 16	LAC 30	(10:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 7-R.Davis to LAC 30 for no gain (3-D.James). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.	−0.49	−0.52	+0.02	−0.85	−3.1%	1.3×
Q4 9:36	BUF	2nd & 26	LAC 40	(9:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 27. PENALTY on LAC-24-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (20-C.Hart; 90-A.Mesidor). PENALTY on LAC-24-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 32.	+1.43	+1.45	−0.01	+1.92	+8.7%	1.3×
Q4 9:13	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 27	(9:13) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LAC 16 for 11 yards (0-D.Henley; 43-T.Dye).	+0.67	+0.64	+0.03	+0.64	+3.9%	1.2×
Q4 8:44	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 16	(8:44) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LAC 5 for 11 yards (91-N.Barrett; 22-G.Smith).	+0.87	+0.82	+0.06	+0.94	+4.8%	1.2×
Q4 8:15	BUF	1st & 5	LAC 5	(8:15) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LAC 1 for 4 yards (43-T.Dye).	+0.40	+0.38	+0.02	+0.40	+2.2%	1.1×
Q4 7:37	BUF	2nd & 1	LAC 1	(7:37) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	−0.24	+0.90	−1.14	+0.87	+0.5%	1.1×
Q4 7:35	BUF	Try	LAC 15	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	+0.13	−0.93	+1.06	+0.07	+3.3%	1.1×
Q4 7:35	LAC	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 33 for 30 yards (28-S.Franklin).	+0.82	+0.81	0.00	+0.45	+4.9%	1.0×
Q4 7:29	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 33	(7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-L.McConkey (96-D.Walker). PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 33 - No Play.	+0.50	+0.51	0.00	+0.55	+3.3%	1.1×
Q4 7:25	LAC	1st & 5	LAC 38	(7:25) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 45 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 9-B.Chubb).	+0.17	+0.17	0.00	+0.12	+1.0%	1.1×
Q4 6:47	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 45	(6:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 48 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 96-D.Walker).	−0.16	−0.16	+0.01	−0.21	−1.4%	1.1×
Q4 6:02	LAC	2nd & 7	LAC 48	(6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 45 for -3 yards (15-G.Rousseau).	−0.94	−0.96	+0.02	−1.12	−6.1%	1.1×
Q4 5:18	LAC	3rd & 10	LAC 45	(5:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.	−1.19	−1.19	0.00	−1.36	−6.4%	1.0×
Q4 5:14	LAC	4th & 10	LAC 45	(5:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal [91-E.Oliver].	−1.78	−2.12	+0.35	−2.57	−8.3%	0.8×
Q4 5:08	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 45	(5:08) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LAC 42 for 3 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).	−0.21	−0.25	+0.05	−0.40	+0.4%	0.6×
Q4 4:24	BUF	2nd & 7	LAC 42	(4:24) 4-J.Cook right guard to LAC 19 for 23 yards (4-T.Still).	+1.57	+1.51	+0.06	+1.81	+6.1%	0.6×
Q4 3:38	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 19	(3:38) 17-J.Allen sacked at LAC 26 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-N.Barrett and 45-T.Tuipulotu).	−1.06	−1.06	0.00	−1.40	−2.3%	0.3×
Q4 3:29	BUF	2nd & 17	LAC 26	(3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to LAC 19 for 7 yards (0-D.Henley; 52-K.Mack).	+0.18	+0.16	+0.02	+0.07	+1.3%	0.4×
Q4 3:23	BUF	3rd & 10	LAC 19	(3:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at LAC 3 for 16 yards (24-R.Shelley).	+2.09	+2.00	+0.09	+2.81	+4.5%	0.4×
Q4 3:16	BUF	1st & 3	LAC 3	(3:16) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+1.25	+2.68	−1.44	+1.13	−0.7%	0.2×
Q4 3:13	BUF	Try	LAC 15	16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	+0.78	−0.61	+1.39	+0.07	+1.7%	0.2×
Q4 3:13	LAC	Kickoff	BUF 35	16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to LAC 0. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 2. 12-D.Davis to LAC 31 for 29 yards (44-J.Andreessen; 3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on LAC-40-H.Rucci, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.	+0.12	−0.04	+0.16	−0.41	+0.1%	0.1×
Q4 3:05	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 16	(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris to LAC 39 for 23 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+1.08	+1.13	−0.05	+1.18	+1.1%	0.1×
Q4 2:43	LAC	1st & 10	LAC 39	(2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal ran ob at BUF 47 for 14 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).	+0.70	+0.73	−0.04	+0.78	+1.1%	0.2×
Q4 2:36	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 47	(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey pushed ob at BUF 18 for 29 yards (8-T.Bernard).	+1.59	+1.62	−0.03	+1.87	+4.2%	0.2×
Q4 2:28	LAC	1st & 10	BUF 18	(2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris to BUF 15 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).	−0.21	−0.19	−0.02	−0.25	−1.0%	0.4×
Q4 2:10	LAC	2nd & 7	BUF 15	(2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at BUF 18 for -3 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver) [91-E.Oliver], RECOVERED by BUF-23-D.Alford at BUF 13. 23-D.Alford for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [91-E.Oliver].	−0.52	−0.52	−0.01	−0.63	−1.4%	0.4×
Q4 2:06	LAC	3rd & 7	BUF 15	(2:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 86-O.Gadsden.	−0.79	−0.78	−0.01	−0.68	−1.6%	0.3×
Q4 1:59	LAC	4th & 7	BUF 15	(1:59) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.	−0.38	−0.22	−0.16	+0.25	−4.1%	0.2×
Q4 1:56	BUF	Kickoff	LAC 35	11-C.Dicker kicks onside 10 yards from LAC 35 to LAC 45. 0-K.Coleman (didn't try to advance) to LAC 45 for no gain.	+0.68	+0.76	−0.08	+1.32	+0.0%	0.0×
Q4 1:55	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 45	(1:55) 4-J.Cook right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (3-D.James; 52-K.Mack).	−0.27	−0.28	+0.01	−1.39	+0.1%	0.0×
Q4 1:50	BUF	2nd & 8	LAC 43	(1:50) 4-J.Cook left guard to LAC 41 for 2 yards (20-C.Hart).	−0.58	−0.70	+0.13	+0.11	+0.1%	0.0×
Q4 1:06	BUF	3rd & 6	LAC 41	(1:06) 4-J.Cook left guard to LAC 32 for 9 yards (27-R.Mickens).	+1.40	+1.31	+0.09	+1.15	+0.0%	0.0×
Q4 0:31	BUF	1st & 10	LAC 32	(:31) 17-J.Allen kneels to LAC 33 for -1 yards.	−2.33	−1.67	−0.66	−1.97	+0.0%	0.0×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	T.Johnson	BUF	4	—	—	+4.9+1.22	+4.9+1.22	+1.7+1.19	+5.8+1.44
	L.McConkey	LAC	5	—	—	+4.4+0.87	+4.4+0.87	+1.3+0.87	+5.0+1.00
	J.Cook	BUF	25	—	+4.7+0.19	−0.6−0.62	+4.1+0.16	+0.4+0.06	+0.1+0.01
	T.Harris	LAC	7	—	—	+2.9+0.41	+2.9+0.41	+0.7+0.38	+3.0+0.43
	K.Coleman	BUF	2	—	—	+2.3+1.13	+2.3+1.13	+0.8+1.14	+3.1+1.53
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LAC
	J.Herbert	20	34	1	1	2	2266.6	−6.4−0.18	−3.3−0.09	−1.1−0.11

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Allen	16	26	0	2	4	2047.8	−5.4−0.18	−1.5−0.05	−1.0−0.09

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LAC
	O.Hampton	15	0	563.7	−0.4−0.03	−0.4−0.03	0.00.00
	K.Mitchell	8	0	526.5	0.00.00	+0.7+0.09	+0.3+0.11
	J.Herbert	4	0	174.2	+1.6+0.41	+1.6+0.39	+0.6+0.44
	K.Vidal	1	0	66.0	+0.6+0.59	+0.7+0.67	+0.3+0.67

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Cook	24	1	1546.4	+0.5+0.02	+4.7+0.19	+0.7+0.10
	J.Allen	8	2	222.8	+3.4+0.43	+0.8+0.10	+1.1+0.49
	D.Knox	1	0	00.0	−1.8−1.79	−1.1−1.15	−0.4−1.15

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
LAC
	T.Harris	7	6	0	7612.7	+3.0+0.43	+2.9+0.41	+0.7+0.38
	Q.Johnston	6	3	0	4013.3	+0.4+0.07	+0.1+0.01	0.00.00
	L.McConkey	5	4	0	6616.5	+5.0+1.00	+4.4+0.87	+1.3+0.87
	A.Ingold	4	3	0	3511.7	+1.1+0.27	+1.2+0.30	+0.4+0.25
	K.Mitchell	3	3	1	−5−1.7	−0.7−0.25	+0.4+0.13	+0.3+0.25
	O.Gadsden	3	0	0	0—	−3.3−1.09	−2.9−0.98	−0.8−1.05
	K.Vidal	3	1	0	1414.0	−2.0−0.66	−1.7−0.57	−0.6−0.93
	O.Hampton	1	0	0	0—	−0.5−0.50	−0.5−0.47	−0.1−0.47
	M.Valdes-Scantling	1	0	0	0—	−5.8−5.82	−3.8−3.78	−1.2−3.78

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	D.Moore	10	6	0	6711.2	−1.4−0.14	−0.1−0.01	−0.6−0.18
	T.Johnson	4	4	0	5012.5	+5.8+1.44	+4.9+1.22	+1.7+1.19
	D.Kincaid	3	2	0	3819.0	−1.7−0.57	−0.4−0.12	−0.2−0.18
	K.Shakir	3	1	0	66.0	−0.1−0.04	0.00.00	0.0−0.01
	K.Coleman	2	1	0	3737.0	+3.1+1.53	+2.3+1.13	+0.8+1.14
	J.Allen	1	1	0	11.0	−0.5−0.50	−0.3−0.34	−0.1−0.34
	J.Cook	1	0	0	0—	−0.4−0.37	−0.6−0.62	−0.2−0.62
	D.Knox	1	1	0	55.0	−0.1−0.08	−0.1−0.09	0.0−0.09
	J.Hawes	1	0	0	0—	−0.9−0.86	−0.6−0.64	−0.2−0.64