CAR 18, CLE 21 — week 3, 2026

18 at 21

Week 3 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive plays only. Each cell is the total, with the per-play average underneath. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
CLE	80	21	2593.2	0.00.000	+0.8+0.010	+1.2+0.014	−0.4−0.005	+0.9+0.035
CAR	85	18	3604.2	−2.9−0.034	−2.8−0.033	−4.5−0.053	+1.7+0.021	−1.5−0.051
NET	−5	3	−101−1.0	+2.9+0.034	+3.6+0.043	+5.7+0.068	−2.1−0.025	+2.4+0.086
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is CLE minus CAR.

Game Timeline

CAR at CLE. CLE won by 3. Two panels. Top: CLE's win probability across 180 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 100%; CLE was favored on 83% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at CLE by 10.7 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +10% at play 51, B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards; -14% at play 87, R.Fitzgerald kicks 66 yards from CAR 30 to CLE 4… — FUMBLES; -14% at play 128, B.Young pass deep left to B.Tremayne to CLE 35 for 31 yards; +20% at play 162, D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14… — TOUCHDOWN.

Excitement

1.7 bits

#4 of 16 this week

85th percentile since 2006

Tension

0.89

#4 of 16 this week

86th percentile since 2006

Win probability movement

585 pts

#3 of 16 this week

90th percentile since 2006

Plays in doubt

81%

#4 of 16 this week

85th percentile since 2006

Lead changes

#4 of 16 this week

79th percentile since 2006

Winner's lowest win probability

29%

#6 of 16 this week

64th percentile since 2006

Rank is against this week's games; the percentile is against every game since 2006. One flips: for the winner's lowest win probability, lower means the closer call.

Key Plays

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q3 14:56	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 30	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 66 yards from CAR 30 to CLE 4. 11-M.Corley to CLE 27 for 23 yards (45-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (45-M.Njongmeta), RECOVERED by CAR-48-T.Incoom at CLE 30.	−4.01	−3.84	−0.17	−5.35	−14.1%	1.0×
2	Q2 8:38	CAR	4th & 3	CLE 43	(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).	−2.87	−2.97	+0.10	−2.97	−10.3%	1.4×
3	Q2 1:04	CAR	2nd & 10	CLE 46	(1:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+2.66	+2.62	+0.03	+3.07	+8.7%	0.9×
4	Q2 3:40	CAR	4th & 1	CAR 40	(3:40) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble.	−2.54	−2.91	+0.37	−2.59	−7.5%	1.3×
5	Q2 1:43	CLE	4th & 2	CAR 2	(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.	+2.53	+3.56	−1.03	+4.26	+8.0%	1.1×
6	Q3 0:13	CAR	3rd & 4	CAR 34	(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 87-B.Tremayne to CLE 35 for 31 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+2.42	+2.49	−0.07	+3.00	+13.7%	1.3×
7	Q4 1:55	CLE	3rd & 10	CAR 14	(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.	+2.16	+2.99	−0.83	+3.40	+20.5%	1.0×
8	Q2 15:00	CLE	4th & 3	CAR 38	(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 34 for 4 yards (29-A.Evans).	+2.08	+2.10	−0.02	+2.95	+6.8%	1.4×
9	Q4 2:55	CLE	3rd & 3	CAR 45	(2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left guard ran ob at CAR 24 for 21 yards (22-L.Ransom).	+1.91	+1.93	−0.02	+1.88	+14.3%	0.9×
10	Q2 0:37	CAR	3rd & 4	CLE 4	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CLE 17 for -13 yards (57-I.McGuire).	−1.89	−1.82	−0.06	−1.51	−4.9%	1.1×
11	Q3 12:00	CLE	3rd & 6	CLE 33	(12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 26 for -7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).	−1.85	−1.75	−0.11	−2.22	−7.5%	1.2×
12	Q4 0:37	CAR	2nd & 16	CAR 22	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [96-M.Collins].	+1.72	+1.73	−0.02	+0.42	+10.6%	0.5×
13	Q2 1:20	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 27	(1:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at CAR 39 for 12 yards.	+1.70	+1.71	0.00	+0.93	+4.8%	0.7×
14	Q1 14:10	CAR	2nd & 15	CAR 24	(14:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 40 for 16 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 29-M.Blackmon).	+1.69	+1.56	+0.13	+2.16	+4.9%	1.4×
15	Q4 13:40	CAR	3rd & 9	CLE 34	(13:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie ran ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards.	+1.63	+1.64	−0.01	+2.14	+9.1%	1.3×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q2 8:38	CAR	4th & 3	CLE 43	(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).	−2.87	−2.97	+0.10	−2.97	−10.3%	1.4×
2	Q3 14:56	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 30	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 66 yards from CAR 30 to CLE 4. 11-M.Corley to CLE 27 for 23 yards (45-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (45-M.Njongmeta), RECOVERED by CAR-48-T.Incoom at CLE 30.	−4.01	−3.84	−0.17	−5.35	−14.1%	1.0×
3	Q2 3:40	CAR	4th & 1	CAR 40	(3:40) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble.	−2.54	−2.91	+0.37	−2.59	−7.5%	1.3×
4	Q3 0:13	CAR	3rd & 4	CAR 34	(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 87-B.Tremayne to CLE 35 for 31 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+2.42	+2.49	−0.07	+3.00	+13.7%	1.3×
5	Q2 15:00	CLE	4th & 3	CAR 38	(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 34 for 4 yards (29-A.Evans).	+2.08	+2.10	−0.02	+2.95	+6.8%	1.4×
6	Q2 1:43	CLE	4th & 2	CAR 2	(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.	+2.53	+3.56	−1.03	+4.26	+8.0%	1.1×
7	Q2 1:04	CAR	2nd & 10	CLE 46	(1:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+2.66	+2.62	+0.03	+3.07	+8.7%	0.9×
8	Q1 14:10	CAR	2nd & 15	CAR 24	(14:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 40 for 16 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 29-M.Blackmon).	+1.69	+1.56	+0.13	+2.16	+4.9%	1.4×
9	Q1 12:10	CAR	4th & 17	CAR 33	(12:10) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 18 for 3 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on CLE-35-T.Pride, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+1.60	+1.03	+0.57	+1.30	+5.3%	1.4×
10	Q1 10:13	CLE	3rd & 6	CLE 23	(10:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to CLE 35 for 12 yards (2-M.Jackson).	+1.57	+1.56	+0.01	+2.17	+5.0%	1.4×
11	Q4 1:55	CLE	3rd & 10	CAR 14	(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.	+2.16	+2.99	−0.83	+3.40	+20.5%	1.0×
12	Q3 12:00	CLE	3rd & 6	CLE 33	(12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 26 for -7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).	−1.85	−1.75	−0.11	−2.22	−7.5%	1.2×
13	Q4 13:40	CAR	3rd & 9	CLE 34	(13:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie ran ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards.	+1.63	+1.64	−0.01	+2.14	+9.1%	1.3×
14	Q2 0:37	CAR	3rd & 4	CLE 4	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CLE 17 for -13 yards (57-I.McGuire).	−1.89	−1.82	−0.06	−1.51	−4.9%	1.1×
15	Q1 4:45	CLE	3rd & 8	CLE 11	(4:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 20 for 9 yards (3-P.Umanmielen; 22-L.Ransom).	+1.47	+1.49	−0.02	+1.80	+5.1%	1.4×

#	Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
1	Q4 1:55	CLE	3rd & 10	CAR 14	(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.	+2.16	+2.99	−0.83	+3.40	+20.5%	1.0×
2	Q4 2:55	CLE	3rd & 3	CAR 45	(2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left guard ran ob at CAR 24 for 21 yards (22-L.Ransom).	+1.91	+1.93	−0.02	+1.88	+14.3%	0.9×
3	Q3 14:56	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 30	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 66 yards from CAR 30 to CLE 4. 11-M.Corley to CLE 27 for 23 yards (45-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (45-M.Njongmeta), RECOVERED by CAR-48-T.Incoom at CLE 30.	−4.01	−3.84	−0.17	−5.35	−14.1%	1.0×
4	Q3 0:13	CAR	3rd & 4	CAR 34	(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 87-B.Tremayne to CLE 35 for 31 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+2.42	+2.49	−0.07	+3.00	+13.7%	1.3×
5	Q4 1:05	CLE	4th & 1	CAR 15	(1:05) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 17 for -2 yards (91-P.Jones).	−1.63	−2.02	+0.39	−2.39	−12.8%	0.1×
6	Q4 2:36	CLE	2nd & 15	CAR 29	(2:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback. CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-58-B.Okereke, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.	+1.44	+1.40	+0.04	+1.92	+11.0%	1.0×
7	Q4 0:37	CAR	2nd & 16	CAR 22	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [96-M.Collins].	+1.72	+1.73	−0.02	+0.42	+10.6%	0.5×
8	Q2 8:38	CAR	4th & 3	CLE 43	(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).	−2.87	−2.97	+0.10	−2.97	−10.3%	1.4×
9	Q4 11:35	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 29	(11:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 12-D.Boston to CAR 43 for 28 yards (8-Ja.Horn).	+1.54	+1.58	−0.04	+1.51	+9.6%	1.3×
10	Q4 13:40	CAR	3rd & 9	CLE 34	(13:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie ran ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards.	+1.63	+1.64	−0.01	+2.14	+9.1%	1.3×
11	Q4 0:16	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 42	(:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 88-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman (97-D.Barnett) at CLE 46. 33-R.Hickman to CLE 44 for -2 yards (83-D.Moore).	−0.12	−0.39	+0.27	−0.25	−8.8%	0.5×
12	Q2 1:04	CAR	2nd & 10	CLE 46	(1:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+2.66	+2.62	+0.03	+3.07	+8.7%	0.9×
13	Q4 1:34	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 22	(1:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 16 for -6 yards (94-M.Graham).	−1.49	−1.49	0.00	−0.91	−8.7%	0.7×
14	Q2 1:43	CLE	4th & 2	CAR 2	(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.	+2.53	+3.56	−1.03	+4.26	+8.0%	1.1×
15	Q4 1:48	CLE	Try	CAR 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson pass to 12-D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.	+1.41	+0.84	+0.56	+1.05	+7.6%	1.0×

Points now and the game after add up to CASE on every play - that's the whole decomposition, right there in the row. WPA is win probability added for the team with the ball. Leverage is how much the play mattered next to the league's average snap: 2.0× means twice the weight.

Show all 180 plays

Time	Team	Down	Ball on	Play	CASE	Points now	Game after	EPA	WPA	Leverage
Q1 15:00	CAR	Kickoff	CLE 35	25-A.Szmyt kicks 58 yards from CLE 35 to CAR 7. 83-D.Moore to CAR 29 for 22 yards (11-M.Corley).	+0.27	+0.30	−0.03	+0.31	+0.7%	1.4×
Q1 14:56	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 29	(14:56) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 29 for no gain (94-M.Graham; 57-I.McGuire).	−0.31	−0.46	+0.15	−0.53	−0.9%	1.4×
Q1 14:27	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 29	(14:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-63-R.Walker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.	−0.42	−0.51	+0.09	−0.94	−1.3%	1.4×
Q1 14:10	CAR	2nd & 15	CAR 24	(14:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 40 for 16 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 29-M.Blackmon).	+1.69	+1.56	+0.13	+2.16	+4.9%	1.4×
Q1 13:41	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 40	(13:41) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 41 for 1 yard (94-M.Graham).	−0.20	−0.37	+0.17	−0.42	−0.6%	1.4×
Q1 13:03	CAR	2nd & 9	CAR 41	(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [8-J.Verse]. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 41.	−1.36	−1.40	+0.04	−1.82	−4.1%	1.4×
Q1 12:56	CAR	3rd & 19	CAR 31	(12:56) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 33 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse).	−0.83	−0.99	+0.15	−0.97	−2.6%	1.4×
Q1 12:10	CAR	4th & 17	CAR 33	(12:10) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 18 for 3 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on CLE-35-T.Pride, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+1.60	+1.03	+0.57	+1.30	+5.3%	1.4×
Q1 12:00	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 8	(12:00) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 11 for 3 yards (91-P.Jones; 92-L.Hunter).	−0.13	−0.20	+0.07	−0.21	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 11:25	CLE	2nd & 7	CLE 11	(11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 19 for 8 yards (95-D.Brown).	+0.79	+0.76	+0.03	+0.95	+2.6%	1.4×
Q1 10:52	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 19	(10:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion (95-D.Brown).	−0.47	−0.47	0.00	−0.61	−1.5%	1.4×
Q1 10:48	CLE	2nd & 10	CLE 19	(10:48) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 23 for 4 yards (5-J.Phillips; 92-L.Hunter).	−0.20	−0.22	+0.02	−0.45	−0.6%	1.4×
Q1 10:13	CLE	3rd & 6	CLE 23	(10:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to CLE 35 for 12 yards (2-M.Jackson).	+1.57	+1.56	+0.01	+2.17	+5.0%	1.4×
Q1 9:32	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 35	(9:32) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 44-H.Fannin [94-A.Hall].	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.55	−1.4%	1.4×
Q1 9:26	CLE	2nd & 10	CLE 35	(9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion (24-W.Lee).	−0.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.80	−1.9%	1.4×
Q1 9:22	CLE	3rd & 10	CLE 35	(9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders pushed ob at CLE 42 for 7 yards (7-T.Moehrig).	−0.40	−0.42	+0.02	−0.75	−1.4%	1.4×
Q1 8:41	CLE	4th & 3	CLE 42	(8:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CAR 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.	−0.37	−0.54	+0.17	−0.24	−0.8%	1.4×
Q1 8:34	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 19	(8:34) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 36 for 17 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren; 33-R.Hickman).	+0.94	+0.92	+0.02	+1.25	+3.1%	1.4×
Q1 8:01	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 36	(8:01) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 36 for no gain (51-M.Hall).	−0.41	−0.46	+0.04	−0.53	−1.3%	1.4×
Q1 7:28	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 36	(7:28) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 39 for 3 yards (5-Q.Williams).	−0.28	−0.34	+0.06	−0.61	−0.9%	1.4×
Q1 6:43	CAR	3rd & 7	CAR 39	(6:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 44 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman).	−0.50	−0.54	+0.05	−0.93	−1.6%	1.4×
Q1 6:00	CAR	4th & 2	CAR 44	(6:00) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.	−0.45	−0.20	−0.24	+0.13	−1.1%	1.4×
Q1 5:51	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 9	(5:51) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 11 for 2 yards (22-L.Ransom).	−0.28	−0.30	+0.02	−0.50	−0.9%	1.4×
Q1 5:22	CLE	2nd & 8	CLE 11	(5:22) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 11 for no gain (97-B.Brown; 33-T.Dodson).	−0.64	−0.65	+0.01	−0.71	−2.1%	1.4×
Q1 4:45	CLE	3rd & 8	CLE 11	(4:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 20 for 9 yards (3-P.Umanmielen; 22-L.Ransom).	+1.47	+1.49	−0.02	+1.80	+5.1%	1.4×
Q1 4:04	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 20	(4:04) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end to CLE 29 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke; 7-T.Moehrig).	+0.66	+0.68	−0.03	+1.06	+2.3%	1.4×
Q1 3:27	CLE	2nd & 1	CLE 29	(3:27) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 33 for 4 yards (8-Ja.Horn). PENALTY on CLE, Illegal Formation, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 29 - No Play.	−0.68	−0.66	−0.02	−0.93	−2.3%	1.4×
Q1 3:01	CLE	2nd & 5	CLE 25	(3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 38 for 13 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).	+0.88	+0.92	−0.04	+1.15	+2.8%	1.4×
Q1 2:24	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 38	(2:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Jeudy. CAR-2-M.Jackson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at CLE 38 - No Play.	+0.90	+0.94	−0.04	+1.04	+2.8%	1.4×
Q1 2:19	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 45	(2:19) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 39 for 6 yards (33-T.Dodson; 93-T.Edwards).	+0.17	+0.21	−0.04	+0.14	+0.5%	1.4×
Q1 1:44	CLE	2nd & 4	CAR 39	(1:44) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 36 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown).	−0.12	−0.10	−0.03	−0.09	−0.4%	1.4×
Q1 1:12	CLE	3rd & 1	CAR 36	(1:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 36 - No Play.	−0.86	−0.86	0.00	−1.14	−2.6%	1.4×
Q1 0:50	CLE	3rd & 6	CAR 41	(:50) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 41 - No Play.	−0.51	−0.51	0.00	−0.81	−1.6%	1.4×
Q1 0:32	CLE	3rd & 11	CAR 46	(:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CAR 38 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke; 29-A.Evans).	−0.24	−0.20	−0.03	−0.59	−0.9%	1.4×
Q2 15:00	CLE	4th & 3	CAR 38	(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 34 for 4 yards (29-A.Evans).	+2.08	+2.10	−0.02	+2.95	+6.8%	1.4×
Q2 14:25	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 34	(14:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion.	−0.43	−0.43	0.00	−0.49	−1.4%	1.4×
Q2 14:21	CLE	2nd & 10	CAR 34	(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston pushed ob at CAR 11 for 23 yards (29-A.Evans). PENALTY on CLE-55-S.Fano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34 - No Play.	−0.82	−0.83	+0.01	−1.14	−2.4%	1.4×
Q2 13:53	CLE	2nd & 20	CAR 44	(13:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CAR 46 for -2 yards (95-D.Brown). PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 44 - No Play.	+0.93	+0.96	−0.02	+1.33	+3.0%	1.4×
Q2 13:22	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 39	(13:22) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 38 for 1 yard (8-Ja.Horn; 93-T.Edwards).	−0.36	−0.34	−0.02	−0.49	−1.2%	1.4×
Q2 12:37	CLE	2nd & 9	CAR 38	(12:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play.	−0.53	−0.53	+0.01	−0.77	−1.6%	1.4×
Q2 12:13	CLE	2nd & 14	CAR 43	(12:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston (29-A.Evans).	−0.69	−0.69	0.00	−0.95	−2.4%	1.4×
Q2 12:08	CLE	3rd & 14	CAR 43	(12:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 23-R.Sanders.	−1.28	−1.28	0.00	−1.39	−4.5%	1.4×
Q2 12:03	CLE	4th & 14	CAR 43	(12:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.	−0.10	−0.27	+0.17	−0.19	+0.0%	1.4×
Q2 11:56	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 16	(11:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to CAR 27 for 11 yards (33-R.Hickman; 29-M.Blackmon).	+0.58	+0.59	−0.01	+0.71	+2.2%	1.4×
Q2 11:20	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 27	(11:20) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 28 for 1 yard (51-M.Hall).	−0.36	−0.36	0.00	−0.53	−1.3%	1.4×
Q2 10:44	CAR	2nd & 9	CAR 28	(10:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 37 for 9 yards (29-M.Blackmon). CAR-68-D.Lewis was injured during the play.	+0.92	+0.91	0.00	+1.17	+3.4%	1.4×
Q2 10:13	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 37	(10:13) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at 50 for 13 yards (29-M.Blackmon). Penalty on CLE-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.	+0.70	+0.71	−0.01	+0.83	+2.5%	1.4×
Q2 9:55	CAR	1st & 10	50	(9:55) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CLE 45 for 5 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+0.08	+0.07	0.00	+0.07	+0.3%	1.4×
Q2 9:20	CAR	2nd & 5	CLE 45	(9:20) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CLE 43 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 94-M.Graham).	−0.38	−0.39	+0.01	−0.49	−1.3%	1.4×
Q2 8:43	CAR	3rd & 3	CLE 43	(8:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Coker (29-M.Blackmon).	−1.27	−1.28	0.00	−2.04	−4.7%	1.4×
Q2 8:38	CAR	4th & 3	CLE 43	(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).	−2.87	−2.97	+0.10	−2.97	−10.3%	1.4×
Q2 8:33	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 47	(8:33) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins to CAR 38 for 9 yards (94-A.Hall; 7-T.Moehrig).	+0.75	+0.76	−0.02	+0.77	+2.5%	1.4×
Q2 7:55	CLE	2nd & 1	CAR 38	(7:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 34-M.Burton.	−0.66	−0.66	0.00	−0.54	−2.2%	1.3×
Q2 7:51	CLE	3rd & 1	CAR 38	(7:51) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CAR 35 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).	+0.61	+0.63	−0.01	+0.47	+2.1%	1.4×
Q2 7:14	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 35	(7:14) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 1-K.Concepcion (22-L.Ransom).	−0.43	−0.43	0.00	−0.43	−1.5%	1.3×
Q2 7:10	CLE	2nd & 10	CAR 35	(7:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CAR 27 for 8 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).	+0.52	+0.54	−0.03	+0.40	+1.8%	1.4×
Q2 6:30	CLE	3rd & 2	CAR 27	(6:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CAR 29 for -2 yards (7-T.Moehrig).	−1.20	−1.17	−0.03	−1.85	−4.1%	1.3×
Q2 5:48	CLE	4th & 4	CAR 29	(5:48) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	+0.26	+0.27	−0.02	+1.32	+3.0%	1.4×
Q2 5:43	CAR	Kickoff	CLE 35	25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to CAR 9. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 31 for 22 yards (16-T.Wallace; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).	+0.11	+0.50	−0.39	+0.46	+0.5%	1.4×
Q2 5:38	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 31	(5:38) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 34 for 3 yards (5-Q.Williams).	−0.19	−0.18	−0.01	−0.34	−0.7%	1.4×
Q2 5:01	CAR	2nd & 7	CAR 34	(5:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 39 for 5 yards (5-Q.Williams; 96-M.Collins).	+0.05	+0.05	0.00	+0.16	+0.3%	1.3×
Q2 4:20	CAR	3rd & 2	CAR 39	(4:20) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 40 for 1 yard (54-S.Williams; 96-M.Collins).	−0.96	−0.99	+0.03	−1.22	−3.6%	1.3×
Q2 3:40	CAR	4th & 1	CAR 40	(3:40) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble.	−2.54	−2.91	+0.37	−2.59	−7.5%	1.3×
Q2 3:36	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 40	(3:36) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CAR 29 for 11 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).	+0.61	+0.63	−0.02	+0.68	+1.4%	1.2×
Q2 2:58	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 29	(2:58) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 27 for 2 yards (92-L.Hunter).	−0.23	−0.23	0.00	−0.43	−0.4%	1.1×
Q2 2:21	CLE	2nd & 8	CAR 27	(2:21) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right tackle to CAR 10 for 17 yards (22-L.Ransom).	+1.22	+1.17	+0.05	+1.69	+3.4%	1.1×
Q2 2:00	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 10	(2:00) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CAR 6 for 4 yards (91-P.Jones). CAR-97-B.Brown was injured during the play.	+0.04	+0.02	+0.02	−0.24	+0.7%	1.0×
Q2 1:56	CLE	2nd & 6	CAR 6	(1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end to CAR 5 for 1 yard (20-Z.Wheatley).	−0.48	−0.49	0.00	−1.27	−0.7%	1.0×
Q2 1:51	CLE	3rd & 5	CAR 5	(1:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 2 for 3 yards (22-L.Ransom).	−0.72	−0.74	+0.01	−0.61	−2.7%	1.0×
Q2 1:43	CLE	4th & 2	CAR 2	(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.	+2.53	+3.56	−1.03	+4.26	+8.0%	1.1×
Q2 1:37	CLE	Try	CAR 15	25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	+0.17	−0.37	+0.55	+0.07	+0.8%	0.9×
Q2 1:37	CAR	Kickoff	CLE 35	25-A.Szmyt kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to CAR 2. 34-A.Tyus pushed ob at CAR 27 for 25 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 98-A.Huntington).	−0.01	+0.05	−0.07	−0.10	−0.2%	0.8×
Q2 1:31	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 27	(1:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left.	−0.46	−0.46	0.00	−0.28	−1.2%	0.8×
Q2 1:26	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 27	(1:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 18-J.Coker.	−0.59	−0.60	0.00	−0.34	−1.4%	0.8×
Q2 1:20	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 27	(1:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at CAR 39 for 12 yards.	+1.70	+1.71	0.00	+0.93	+4.8%	0.7×
Q2 1:15	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 39	(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-51-M.Hall, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 39 - No Play.	+0.80	+0.83	−0.03	+1.07	+2.3%	0.9×
Q2 1:09	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 46	(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan [96-M.Collins].	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.38	−1.3%	1.0×
Q2 1:04	CAR	2nd & 10	CLE 46	(1:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.	+2.66	+2.62	+0.03	+3.07	+8.7%	0.9×
Q2 0:54	CAR	1st & 8	CLE 8	(:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 4-T.McMillan [97-D.Barnett]. PENALTY on CLE-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8 - No Play.	+0.45	+0.42	+0.02	+0.60	+1.3%	1.2×
Q2 0:47	CAR	1st & 4	CLE 4	(:47) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.	−0.33	−0.33	0.00	−0.45	−1.1%	1.2×
Q2 0:42	CAR	2nd & 4	CLE 4	(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan.	−0.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.91	−1.9%	1.2×
Q2 0:37	CAR	3rd & 4	CLE 4	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CLE 17 for -13 yards (57-I.McGuire).	−1.89	−1.82	−0.06	−1.51	−4.9%	1.1×
Q2 0:30	CAR	4th & 17	CLE 17	(:30) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	+0.22	+0.29	−0.06	+0.27	−0.9%	1.0×
Q2 0:27	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 64 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 1. 11-M.Corley to CLE 28 for 27 yards (45-M.Njongmeta). PENALTY on CLE-48-C.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 28.	−0.29	−0.22	−0.07	−0.18	−0.8%	1.0×
Q2 0:20	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 18	(:20) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 17 for -1 yards.	+0.27	+0.22	+0.05	0.00	+0.5%	1.0×
Q3 15:00	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 4. 11-M.Corley to CLE 21 for 17 yards (48-T.Incoom). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 35 - No Play.	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.0%	1.0×
Q3 14:56	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 30	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 66 yards from CAR 30 to CLE 4. 11-M.Corley to CLE 27 for 23 yards (45-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (45-M.Njongmeta), RECOVERED by CAR-48-T.Incoom at CLE 30.	−4.01	−3.84	−0.17	−5.35	−14.1%	1.0×
Q3 14:49	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 30	(14:49) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard pushed ob at CLE 28 for 2 yards (9-G.Delpit). ** Injury Update: CAR-68-D.Lewis has returned to the game.	−0.19	−0.21	+0.02	−0.25	−0.9%	1.3×
Q3 14:16	CAR	2nd & 8	CLE 28	(14:16) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CLE 22 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams).	+0.36	+0.34	+0.02	+0.39	+1.1%	1.3×
Q3 13:31	CAR	3rd & 2	CLE 22	(13:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Metchie.	−0.72	−0.72	0.00	−1.64	−2.6%	1.3×
Q3 13:26	CAR	4th & 2	CLE 22	(13:26) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	−0.62	−0.30	−0.32	+0.63	−4.4%	1.3×
Q3 13:22	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 62 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 3. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 29 for 26 yards (48-T.Incoom).	+0.18	+0.08	+0.11	+0.32	+0.7%	1.2×
Q3 13:18	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 29	(13:18) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 32 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown).	−0.26	−0.16	−0.10	−0.30	−0.9%	1.2×
Q3 12:41	CLE	2nd & 7	CLE 32	(12:41) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 33 for 1 yard (33-T.Dodson; 92-L.Hunter).	−0.57	−0.47	−0.10	−0.79	−2.1%	1.2×
Q3 12:00	CLE	3rd & 6	CLE 33	(12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 26 for -7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).	−1.85	−1.75	−0.11	−2.22	−7.5%	1.2×
Q3 11:09	CLE	4th & 13	CLE 26	(11:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 20 for 8 yards (11-M.Corley).	+1.09	+0.86	+0.23	+1.02	+4.8%	1.3×
Q3 10:57	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 20	(10:57) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 23 for 3 yards (8-J.Verse).	−0.13	−0.15	+0.02	−0.41	−0.8%	1.3×
Q3 10:14	CAR	2nd & 7	CAR 23	(10:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 39 for 16 yards (9-G.Delpit).	+1.24	+1.23	+0.01	+1.73	+5.9%	1.2×
Q3 9:42	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 39	(9:42) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 48 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 9-G.Delpit).	+0.72	+0.72	0.00	+0.91	+3.3%	1.3×
Q3 9:06	CAR	2nd & 1	CAR 48	(9:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left [5-Q.Williams].	−0.65	−0.65	0.00	−0.64	−3.0%	1.4×
Q3 9:02	CAR	3rd & 1	CAR 48	(9:02) 30-C.Hubbard left end ran ob at CLE 41 for 11 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+1.07	+1.08	−0.01	+1.17	+4.9%	1.3×
Q3 8:32	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 41	(8:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 45 for -4 yards (5-Q.Williams, 98-A.Huntington).	−0.85	−0.87	+0.02	−1.22	−4.2%	1.4×
Q3 7:54	CAR	2nd & 14	CLE 45	(7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne.	−0.69	−0.69	0.00	−0.97	−3.2%	1.3×
Q3 7:51	CAR	3rd & 14	CLE 45	(7:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller (26-M.Harden).	−1.25	−1.26	0.00	−1.45	−5.4%	1.3×
Q3 7:42	CAR	4th & 14	CLE 45	(7:42) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to CLE 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-83-D.Moore.	+0.64	+0.23	+0.41	+0.21	+2.9%	1.2×
Q3 7:34	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 5	(7:34) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 7 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown). ** Injury Update: CAR-97-B.Brown has returned to the game.	−0.33	−0.30	−0.02	−0.58	−1.0%	1.3×
Q3 6:58	CLE	2nd & 8	CLE 7	(6:58) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 10 for 3 yards (22-L.Ransom; 5-J.Phillips).	−0.37	−0.36	−0.02	−0.43	−1.3%	1.3×
Q3 6:15	CLE	3rd & 5	CLE 10	(6:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion.	−0.89	−0.89	0.00	−1.37	−4.3%	1.3×
Q3 6:12	CLE	4th & 5	CLE 10	(6:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Thomas).	+0.75	+0.34	+0.41	+0.74	+4.0%	1.3×
Q3 6:00	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 34	(6:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 4-T.McMillan.	−0.45	−0.45	0.00	−0.54	−2.2%	1.3×
Q3 5:57	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 34	(5:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 88-D.Waller to CAR 48 for 14 yards (21-D.Ward).	+1.19	+1.21	−0.02	+1.56	+6.0%	1.3×
Q3 5:25	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 48	(5:25) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to 50 for 2 yards (97-D.Barnett).	−0.27	−0.27	0.00	−0.45	−1.5%	1.3×
Q3 4:51	CAR	2nd & 8	50	(4:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to CLE 38 for 12 yards (21-D.Ward).	+1.05	+1.08	−0.03	+1.36	+5.3%	1.3×
Q3 4:17	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 38	(4:17) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Moore.	−0.44	−0.44	0.00	−0.58	−2.2%	1.4×
Q3 4:09	CAR	2nd & 10	CLE 38	(4:09) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CLE 35 for 3 yards (54-S.Williams; 94-M.Graham).	−0.30	−0.29	−0.01	−0.46	−1.6%	1.3×
Q3 3:27	CAR	3rd & 7	CLE 35	(3:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 87-B.Tremayne.	−1.02	−1.01	0.00	−1.37	−4.8%	1.3×
Q3 3:21	CAR	4th & 7	CLE 35	(3:21) 10-R.Fitzgerald 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	+0.67	+0.69	−0.01	+2.08	+2.3%	1.3×
Q3 3:17	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 58 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 33 for 26 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade; 29-A.Evans).	+0.25	+0.25	0.00	+0.53	+1.2%	1.3×
Q3 3:12	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 33	(3:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion.	−0.45	−0.46	0.00	−0.53	−2.3%	1.3×
Q3 3:09	CLE	2nd & 10	CLE 33	(3:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion [93-T.Edwards].	−0.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.79	−3.1%	1.3×
Q3 3:00	CLE	3rd & 10	CLE 33	(3:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 33 - No Play.	−0.50	−0.51	0.00	−0.84	−2.7%	1.3×
Q3 3:00	CLE	3rd & 15	CLE 28	(3:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 34 for 6 yards (22-L.Ransom) [91-P.Jones].	−0.46	−0.47	+0.01	−0.50	−2.7%	1.3×
Q3 2:18	CLE	4th & 9	CLE 34	(2:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CAR 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.	+1.09	+0.48	+0.60	+0.71	+6.4%	1.4×
Q3 2:10	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 13	(2:10) 28-A.Dillon left guard to CAR 17 for 4 yards (33-R.Hickman; 51-M.Hall).	−0.09	−0.07	−0.03	−0.11	−0.8%	1.3×
Q3 1:36	CAR	2nd & 6	CAR 17	(1:36) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to CAR 28 for 11 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren; 49-C.Schwesinger).	+0.88	+0.91	−0.03	+1.10	+4.8%	1.3×
Q3 0:59	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 28	(:59) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.	−0.46	−0.46	−0.01	−0.56	−2.7%	1.3×
Q3 0:52	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 28	(:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 84-M.Evans to CAR 34 for 6 yards (9-G.Delpit; 49-C.Schwesinger).	+0.04	+0.07	−0.03	+0.03	+0.2%	1.3×
Q3 0:13	CAR	3rd & 4	CAR 34	(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 87-B.Tremayne to CLE 35 for 31 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+2.42	+2.49	−0.07	+3.00	+13.7%	1.3×
Q4 15:00	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 35	(15:00) 28-A.Dillon right guard to CLE 32 for 3 yards (5-Q.Williams; 33-R.Hickman).	−0.12	−0.10	−0.02	−0.16	−0.7%	1.3×
Q4 14:28	CAR	2nd & 7	CLE 32	(14:28) 9-B.Young pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to CLE 34 for -2 yards (57-I.McGuire, 5-Q.Williams).	−0.81	−0.79	−0.02	−1.12	−4.5%	1.3×
Q4 13:40	CAR	3rd & 9	CLE 34	(13:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie ran ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards.	+1.63	+1.64	−0.01	+2.14	+9.1%	1.3×
Q4 13:13	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 23	(13:13) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left end to CLE 25 for -2 yards (94-M.Graham).	−0.58	−0.57	−0.01	−0.93	−3.1%	1.3×
Q4 12:32	CAR	2nd & 12	CLE 25	(12:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Metchie.	−0.49	−0.49	0.00	−0.61	−2.8%	1.3×
Q4 12:26	CAR	3rd & 12	CLE 25	(12:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to CLE 19 for 6 yards (26-M.Harden).	−0.05	−0.07	+0.02	−0.26	−0.3%	1.3×
Q4 11:45	CAR	4th & 6	CLE 19	(11:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	−0.61	−1.12	+0.50	+0.45	−2.6%	1.3×
Q4 11:41	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 8. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 29 for 21 yards (27-I.Simmons).	−0.15	+0.09	−0.24	+0.28	−1.0%	1.3×
Q4 11:35	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 29	(11:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 12-D.Boston to CAR 43 for 28 yards (8-Ja.Horn).	+1.54	+1.58	−0.04	+1.51	+9.6%	1.3×
Q4 10:59	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 43	(10:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 38 for 5 yards (24-W.Lee).	+0.13	+0.13	0.00	+0.16	+0.7%	1.3×
Q4 10:24	CLE	2nd & 5	CAR 38	(10:24) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end to CAR 28 for 10 yards (24-W.Lee; 22-L.Ransom).	+0.88	+0.87	0.00	+0.85	+4.9%	1.3×
Q4 9:38	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 28	(9:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CAR 38 for -10 yards (52-T.Gipson).	−1.16	−1.18	+0.03	−1.61	−6.8%	1.2×
Q4 9:00	CLE	2nd & 20	CAR 38	(9:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-R.Sanders to CAR 28 for 10 yards (24-W.Lee; 20-Z.Wheatley).	+0.41	+0.41	0.00	+0.59	+2.2%	1.2×
Q4 8:15	CLE	3rd & 10	CAR 28	(8:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to CAR 27 for 1 yard (95-D.Brown).	−0.58	−0.59	+0.01	−1.15	−3.8%	1.2×
Q4 7:34	CLE	4th & 9	CAR 27	(7:34) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.	−0.37	−0.75	+0.38	+1.13	+1.2%	1.2×
Q4 7:30	CAR	Kickoff	CLE 35	25-A.Szmyt kicks 58 yards from CLE 35 to CAR 7. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 28 for 21 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).	+0.25	+0.42	−0.17	+0.01	+1.7%	1.2×
Q4 7:23	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 28	(7:23) 9-B.Young pass short right to 84-M.Evans to CAR 47 for 19 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren; 33-R.Hickman).	+1.06	+1.07	0.00	+1.26	+7.2%	1.2×
Q4 6:49	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 47	(6:49) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to 50 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins; 8-J.Verse).	−0.14	−0.15	+0.01	−0.23	−1.1%	1.2×
Q4 6:23	CAR	2nd & 7	50	(6:23) (No Huddle) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CLE 39 for 11 yards (33-R.Hickman).	+0.98	+0.99	−0.01	+1.15	+6.6%	1.2×
Q4 5:47	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 39	(5:47) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CLE 23 for 16 yards (33-R.Hickman).	+0.94	+0.93	+0.01	+0.91	+6.0%	1.1×
Q4 5:10	CAR	1st & 10	CLE 23	(5:10) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CLE 8 for 15 yards (29-M.Blackmon).	+0.86	+0.78	+0.08	+0.93	+5.8%	1.1×
Q4 4:29	CAR	1st & 8	CLE 8	(4:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	+0.30	+1.38	−1.09	+1.78	+2.0%	1.0×
Q4 4:25	CAR	Try	CLE 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS. CAR-68-D.Lewis was injured during the play.	−0.69	−1.78	+1.09	−0.95	+0.2%	0.9×
Q4 4:25	CLE	Kickoff	CAR 35	10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 58 yards from CAR 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 35 for 28 yards (29-A.Evans; 81-F.Franks). CLE-16-T.Wallace was injured during the play.	+0.77	+0.79	−0.02	+0.59	+5.1%	0.9×
Q4 4:19	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 35	(4:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston to CLE 48 for 13 yards (24-W.Lee).	+0.58	+0.59	−0.01	+0.69	+4.1%	1.0×
Q4 3:41	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 48	(3:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 44-H.Fannin [5-J.Phillips].	−0.48	−0.48	0.00	−0.51	−3.3%	1.0×
Q4 3:34	CLE	2nd & 10	CLE 48	(3:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CAR 45 for 7 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).	−0.04	−0.03	−0.01	+0.35	−0.2%	1.0×
Q4 2:55	CLE	3rd & 3	CAR 45	(2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left guard ran ob at CAR 24 for 21 yards (22-L.Ransom).	+1.91	+1.93	−0.02	+1.88	+14.3%	0.9×
Q4 2:48	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 24	(2:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left.	−0.42	−0.42	0.00	−0.38	−2.8%	1.0×
Q4 2:41	CLE	2nd & 10	CAR 24	(2:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 19 for 5 yards (22-L.Ransom). PENALTY on CLE-11-M.Corley, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 24 - No Play.	−0.56	−0.56	0.00	−0.70	−3.9%	1.0×
Q4 2:36	CLE	2nd & 15	CAR 29	(2:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback. CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-58-B.Okereke, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.	+1.44	+1.40	+0.04	+1.92	+11.0%	1.0×
Q4 2:29	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 14	(2:29) (Shotgun) 2-S.Sanders pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins to CAR 14 for no gain (24-W.Lee; 33-T.Dodson).	−0.50	−0.51	+0.01	−0.40	−2.2%	1.0×
Q4 2:00	CLE	2nd & 10	CAR 14	(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston. ** Injury Update: CLE-4-D.Watson has returned to the game.	−0.53	−0.53	0.00	−0.74	−4.0%	1.0×
Q4 1:55	CLE	3rd & 10	CAR 14	(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.	+2.16	+2.99	−0.83	+3.40	+20.5%	1.0×
Q4 1:48	CLE	Try	CAR 2	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson pass to 12-D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.	+1.41	+0.84	+0.56	+1.05	+7.6%	1.0×
Q4 1:48	CAR	Kickoff	CLE 35	25-A.Szmyt kicks 59 yards from CLE 35 to CAR 6. 83-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 16 yards (11-M.Corley; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).	−0.04	+0.12	−0.17	−0.18	−0.5%	0.8×
Q4 1:44	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 22	(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Metchie (21-D.Ward). ** Injury Update: CAR-68-D.Lewis has returned to the game.	−0.49	−0.49	0.00	−0.14	−3.9%	0.8×
Q4 1:40	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 22	(1:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard pushed ob at CAR 22 for no gain (5-Q.Williams).	−0.64	−0.64	0.00	−0.37	−4.7%	0.8×
Q4 1:34	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 22	(1:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 16 for -6 yards (94-M.Graham).	−1.49	−1.49	0.00	−0.91	−8.7%	0.7×
Q4 1:27	CAR	4th & 16	CAR 16	(1:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 24 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger).	+0.04	−0.39	+0.43	−2.95	−5.2%	0.4×
Q4 1:17	CLE	1st & 10	CAR 24	(1:17) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 16 for 8 yards (24-W.Lee).	+0.59	+0.56	+0.03	+0.35	+1.5%	0.2×
Q4 1:13	CLE	2nd & 2	CAR 16	(1:13) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CAR 15 for 1 yard (33-T.Dodson; 58-B.Okereke). Penalty on CLE, Illegal Formation, declined.	−0.32	−0.33	+0.01	−0.16	−0.1%	0.1×
Q4 1:09	CLE	3rd & 1	CAR 15	(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end to CAR 15 for no gain (33-T.Dodson).	−0.75	−0.76	+0.01	−1.89	−0.1%	0.1×
Q4 1:05	CLE	4th & 1	CAR 15	(1:05) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 17 for -2 yards (91-P.Jones).	−1.63	−2.02	+0.39	−2.39	−12.8%	0.1×
Q4 1:01	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 17	(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 28 for 11 yards (26-M.Harden).	+0.49	+0.50	−0.01	0.00	+1.3%	0.6×
Q4 0:41	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 28	(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Waller.	−0.48	−0.48	0.00	−0.02	−3.9%	0.7×
Q4 0:37	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 28	(:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-57-M.Freeling, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.	−0.59	−0.59	0.00	−0.14	−3.3%	0.6×
Q4 0:37	CAR	2nd & 16	CAR 22	(:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [96-M.Collins].	+1.72	+1.73	−0.02	+0.42	+10.6%	0.5×
Q4 0:22	CAR	1st & 10	CAR 42	(:22) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.	−0.46	−0.46	0.00	−0.07	−4.2%	0.9×
Q4 0:21	CAR	2nd & 10	CAR 42	(:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Moore [97-D.Barnett].	−0.65	−0.65	0.00	−0.17	−5.7%	0.7×
Q4 0:16	CAR	3rd & 10	CAR 42	(:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 88-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman (97-D.Barnett) at CLE 46. 33-R.Hickman to CLE 44 for -2 yards (83-D.Moore).	−0.12	−0.39	+0.27	−0.25	−8.8%	0.5×
Q4 0:09	CLE	1st & 10	CLE 44	(:09) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 43 for -1 yards.	−0.54	−0.02	−0.52	0.00	+0.0%	0.0×

Best CASE

Every play a player touched - passing, rushing, and receiving - so a quarterback who scrambles gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	B.Tremayne	CAR	6	—	—	+5.4+0.89	+5.4+0.89	+1.6+0.80	+5.0+0.83
	H.Fannin	CLE	9	—	—	+4.1+0.45	+4.1+0.45	+1.3+0.42	+7.2+0.80
	M.Evans	CAR	3	—	—	+1.7+0.56	+1.7+0.56	+0.6+0.55	+2.0+0.67
	R.Sanders	CLE	6	—	+1.2+1.22	0.0−0.01	+1.2+0.20	+0.4+0.16	+1.3+0.22
	D.Boston	CLE	4	—	—	+0.9+0.22	+0.9+0.22	+0.3+0.22	+0.5+0.13
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team on the left, home team on the right. A completion counts fully for the passer and the receiver, so these won't sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	B.Young	26	48	1	1	3	2916.1	−5.9−0.12	−3.9−0.08	−1.7−0.10

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	D.Watson	16	30	2	0	2	1444.8	+1.5+0.05	−0.10.00	−0.1−0.01
	S.Sanders	1	1	0	0	0	00.0	−0.4−0.40	−0.5−0.50	−0.1−0.50

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	C.Hubbard	19	0	824.3	−2.5−0.13	−0.6−0.03	−0.4−0.06
	A.Dillon	4	0	164.0	−0.1−0.03	+0.1+0.02	0.0+0.02

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	Q.Judkins	18	0	703.9	−3.9−0.22	−1.9−0.11	−0.3−0.05
	D.Watson	11	0	454.1	−1.3−0.12	+0.9+0.08	+0.8+0.25
	R.Sanders	1	0	1717.0	+1.7+1.69	+1.2+1.22	+0.4+1.22

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	D.Waller	8	5	0	5110.2	−2.0−0.25	+0.9+0.11	+0.3+0.15
	B.Tremayne	6	4	0	8320.8	+5.0+0.83	+5.4+0.89	+1.6+0.80
	T.McMillan	5	2	0	178.5	−1.8−0.37	−0.3−0.06	−0.3−0.21
	J.Metchie	5	2	1	199.5	+1.5+0.31	+0.2+0.05	+0.1+0.08
	T.Tremble	4	3	0	4113.7	+0.8+0.19	+0.2+0.05	+0.1+0.06
	J.Coker	4	2	0	189.0	−1.5−0.37	−1.1−0.27	−0.3−0.23
	C.Hubbard	4	4	0	287.0	+1.2+0.31	+1.0+0.25	+0.2+0.14
	M.Evans	3	3	0	3612.0	+2.0+0.67	+1.7+0.56	+0.6+0.55
	D.Moore	2	0	0	0—	−0.7−0.37	−1.1−0.55	−0.3−0.52
	A.Dillon	1	1	0	−2−2.0	−1.1−1.12	−0.8−0.81	−0.3−0.81

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	K.Concepcion	9	2	0	94.5	−1.9−0.21	−1.7−0.19	−0.6−0.17
	H.Fannin	9	7	2	517.3	+7.2+0.80	+4.1+0.45	+1.3+0.42
	R.Sanders	5	4	0	348.5	−0.3−0.07	0.0−0.01	0.0−0.01
	D.Boston	4	2	0	4120.5	+0.5+0.13	+0.9+0.22	+0.3+0.22
	Q.Judkins	2	2	0	94.5	+0.4+0.18	+0.2+0.12	+0.1+0.21
	M.Burton	1	0	0	0—	−0.5−0.54	−0.7−0.66	−0.2−0.66