NO 24, BAL 17 — week 2, 2026

24 at 17

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
BAL	64	17	3124.9	+1.5+0.024	+6.5+0.101	+4.9+0.077	+1.6+0.025	+2.7+0.141
NO	75	24	2984.0	+8.9+0.118	+10.1+0.135	+10.7+0.142	−0.5−0.007	+1.9+0.085
NET	−11	−7	140.9	−7.3−0.094	−3.6−0.034	−5.8−0.066	+2.1+0.032	+0.8+0.056
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is BAL minus NO.

Game Timeline

NO at BAL. NO won by 7. Two panels. Top: BAL's win probability across 153 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 0%; BAL was favored on 83% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at BAL by 11.2 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -10% at play 48, T.Shough pass deep middle to D.Vele to BAL 35 for 29 yards; -9% at play 80, T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson pushed ob at BAL 39…; -9% at play 129, T.Shough pass short right to C.Olave to NO 47 for 15 yards; -26% at play 144, T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard — TOUCHDOWN.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	T.Shough	NO	46	+8.8+0.24	+4.4+0.49	—	+13.3+0.29	+2.9+0.22	+12.6+0.27
	R.Bateman	BAL	9	—	—	+5.7+0.63	+5.7+0.63	+1.9+0.79	+5.6+0.62
	C.Olave	NO	10	—	—	+5.6+0.56	+5.6+0.56	+1.6+0.53	+6.5+0.65
	J.Johnson	NO	4	—	—	+5.4+1.34	+5.4+1.34	+1.4+1.30	+7.0+1.75
	L.Jackson	BAL	38	+4.4+0.13	+0.9+0.22	—	+5.3+0.14	+2.1+0.19	+3.6+0.10
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	T.Shough	27	34	1	0	3	2527.4	+10.9+0.30	+8.8+0.24	+2.4+0.21

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BAL
	L.Jackson	21	31	1	1	3	2357.6	+3.3+0.10	+4.4+0.13	+1.9+0.19

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	A.Kamara	9	0	151.7	−3.8−0.42	−2.6−0.29	−0.8−0.29
	T.Shough	9	1	232.6	+1.7+0.18	+4.4+0.49	+0.6+0.24
	T.Etienne	8	0	253.1	−0.7−0.08	−0.3−0.03	−0.1−0.03
	C.Donaldson	1	0	22.0	+0.4+0.36	+0.6+0.56	+0.2+0.56

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BAL
	D.Henry	16	1	684.2	+2.9+0.18	+3.0+0.19	+1.1+0.20
	L.Jackson	4	0	348.5	+0.3+0.08	+0.9+0.22	+0.2+0.19
	J.Hill	2	0	63.0	−0.2−0.11	−0.3−0.13	−0.1−0.12

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	C.Olave	10	8	1	8610.8	+6.5+0.65	+5.6+0.56	+1.6+0.53
	D.Vele	7	5	0	6412.8	+5.4+0.78	+4.2+0.60	+1.3+0.64
	A.Kamara	6	5	0	71.4	−3.5−0.58	−2.4−0.41	−0.8−0.38
	J.Johnson	4	4	0	6616.5	+7.0+1.75	+5.4+1.34	+1.4+1.30
	T.Etienne	2	2	0	63.0	−0.4−0.22	−0.3−0.14	−0.1−0.14
	B.Lance	1	1	0	88.0	+0.5+0.49	+0.5+0.47	+0.1+0.47
	O.Delp	1	1	0	88.0	+0.6+0.64	+0.5+0.49	+0.1+0.49
	K.Austin	1	1	0	77.0	+0.4+0.39	+0.4+0.38	+0.1+0.38

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BAL
	R.Bateman	9	7	1	8812.6	+5.6+0.62	+5.7+0.63	+1.9+0.79
	M.Andrews	7	6	0	498.2	+4.0+0.57	+3.6+0.52	+0.9+0.41
	D.Henry	3	3	0	196.3	+0.2+0.07	+0.6+0.19	+0.4+0.37
	C.Moore	3	1	0	66.0	−1.9−0.64	−1.9−0.62	−0.5−0.57
	L.Wester	2	1	0	1414.0	+0.1+0.03	+0.2+0.10	0.0−0.01
	D.Walker	2	1	0	4747.0	+2.9+1.47	+2.2+1.11	+0.8+1.83
	J.Hill	2	2	0	126.0	0.0+0.02	−0.2−0.08	0.0−0.08
	D.Smythe	1	0	0	0—	−0.8−0.83	−0.7−0.69	−0.2−0.69