JAX 13, DEN 20 — week 2, 2026

13 at 20

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
DEN	69	20	3925.7	+4.0+0.058	+6.2+0.089	+6.3+0.092	−0.2−0.003	+1.8+0.081
JAX	68	13	2683.9	−3.8−0.055	−1.2−0.018	−1.2−0.018	0.00.000	0.0+0.001
NET	1	7	1241.7	+7.8+0.113	+7.4+0.107	+7.5+0.110	−0.2−0.002	+1.7+0.080
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is DEN minus JAX.

Game Timeline

JAX at DEN. DEN won by 7. Two panels. Top: DEN's win probability across 148 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; DEN was favored on 40% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at JAX by 10.4 in the third quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +12% at play 49, B.Nix pass deep middle to J.Waddle to JAX 1 for 49 yards; -18% at play 67, B.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton — INTERCEPTED; -16% at play 119, T.Lawrence pass deep left to J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	J.Waddle	DEN	10	—	—	+8.8+0.88	+8.8+0.88	+2.4+0.71	+8.7+0.87
	B.Nix	DEN	36	+9.3+0.30	−2.1−0.41	—	+7.2+0.20	+2.9+0.25	+6.3+0.18
	N.Adkins	DEN	4	—	+0.2+0.21	+2.8+0.95	+3.1+0.76	+1.1+0.79	+4.0+1.01
	J.Meyers	JAX	1	—	—	+2.5+2.49	+2.5+2.49	+0.9+2.49	+3.1+3.14
	B.Strange	JAX	2	—	—	+1.4+0.70	+1.4+0.70	+0.5+0.71	+2.0+0.98
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	T.Lawrence	17	29	0	1	2	1896.5	−4.1−0.13	−2.2−0.07	−0.2−0.02

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DEN
	B.Nix	22	31	1	1	0	2889.3	+8.4+0.27	+9.3+0.30	+2.5+0.22

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	B.Tuten	13	1	655.0	+1.2+0.09	+1.4+0.11	+0.4+0.09
	C.Rodriguez	6	0	132.2	−0.6−0.11	−0.2−0.04	+0.1+0.03
	A.Abdullah	3	0	113.7	+0.6+0.19	+0.3+0.10	+0.1+0.11
	T.Lawrence	2	0	63.0	+0.4+0.19	+0.5+0.23	+0.2+0.32

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DEN
	J.Dobbins	10	0	363.6	−3.2−0.32	−1.6−0.16	−0.6−0.16
	J.Coleman	10	1	393.9	−0.2−0.02	+0.4+0.04	−0.3−0.18
	B.Nix	5	0	61.2	−2.1−0.42	−2.1−0.41	+0.4+0.60
	N.Adkins	1	0	66.0	+0.3+0.32	+0.2+0.21	+0.1+0.21
	P.Bryant	1	0	1616.0	+1.0+0.99	+0.9+0.95	+0.3+0.95
	T.Badie	1	0	11.0	−0.6−0.56	−0.5−0.46	−0.2−0.46

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
JAX
	P.Washington	12	7	0	9814.0	−0.4−0.03	+0.5+0.04	+0.4+0.09
	Bri.Thomas	8	3	0	4013.3	−1.2−0.15	−0.9−0.12	0.00.00
	B.Strange	2	2	0	178.5	+2.0+0.98	+1.4+0.70	+0.5+0.71
	B.Tuten	2	2	0	−3−1.5	−1.9−0.97	−1.4−0.68	−0.4−0.69
	Q.Morris	1	1	0	77.0	+0.5+0.51	+0.7+0.67	+0.2+0.67
	L.Allen	1	0	0	0—	−1.3−1.33	−1.1−1.05	−0.3−1.05
	A.Abdullah	1	1	0	22.0	−0.4−0.40	−0.3−0.26	−0.1−0.26
	J.Meyers	1	1	0	2828.0	+3.1+3.14	+2.5+2.49	+0.9+2.49

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DEN
	J.Waddle	10	8	0	13817.2	+8.7+0.87	+8.8+0.88	+2.4+0.71
	C.Sutton	4	3	0	258.3	−2.5−0.63	−2.6−0.65	−1.1−0.81
	J.Coleman	3	3	0	196.3	+0.3+0.10	+0.2+0.08	+0.1+0.09
	T.Badie	3	2	0	2814.0	0.0+0.01	+0.7+0.22	+0.3+0.21
	N.Adkins	3	3	1	3210.7	+3.7+1.24	+2.8+0.95	+1.0+0.93
	T.Franklin	2	1	0	2727.0	+1.6+0.78	+1.2+0.61	+0.5+0.66
	P.Bryant	1	0	0	0—	−1.4−1.42	−1.0−1.02	−0.4−1.02
	A.Prentice	1	1	0	22.0	−0.3−0.29	−0.2−0.24	−0.1−0.24
	E.Engram	1	1	0	1717.0	+1.0+1.01	+1.0+1.03	+0.3+1.03
	L.Humphrey	1	0	0	0—	−0.4−0.36	−0.4−0.40	−0.1−0.40