IND 30, KC 33 — week 2, 2026

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER1	CONTESTED CASE2
KC	88	33	5235.9	+14.9+0.170	+18.6+0.211	+17.3+0.197	+1.2+0.014	+7.2+0.242
IND	75	30	3294.4	+14.7+0.196	+8.9+0.118	+11.5+0.154	−2.7−0.036	+2.9+0.107
NET	13	3	1941.6	+0.2−0.026	+9.7+0.093	+5.8+0.043	+3.9+0.050	+4.3+0.135
1 Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
2 Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE | Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is KC minus IND.

Game Timeline

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
				PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL
	P.Mahomes	KC	51	+15.5+0.32	+0.7+0.33	—	+16.1+0.32	+6.2+0.36	+13.9+0.27
	T.Kelce	KC	11	—	—	+7.7+0.70	+7.7+0.70	+2.7+0.69	+5.1+0.46
	J.Downs	IND	9	—	—	+7.6+0.85	+7.6+0.85	+2.5+0.80	+8.2+0.91
	T.Thornton	KC	4	—	—	+6.2+1.55	+6.2+1.55	+2.4+1.55	+8.2+2.04
	D.Jones	IND	34	+4.4+0.14	−0.3−0.11	—	+4.1+0.12	+1.0+0.09	+5.9+0.17
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE | Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

IND
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	D.Jones	22	31	1	1	0	2106.8	+5.9+0.19	+4.4+0.14	+1.3+0.12

KC
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	P.Mahomes	32	47	3	0	2	3828.1	+13.4+0.27	+15.5+0.32	+6.0+0.36

Rushing

IND
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	J.Taylor	24	2	923.8	+3.8+0.16	+0.7+0.03	+0.5+0.05
	D.Jones	3	0	103.3	+0.1+0.02	−0.3−0.11	−0.3−0.26
	D.Burks	2	0	147.0	+0.5+0.26	+0.7+0.36	+0.3+0.40
	S.McGowan	2	0	00.0	−1.2−0.61	−0.8−0.42	−0.3−0.42
	T.Warren	1	0	33.0	+0.7+0.68	+0.8+0.75	+0.3+0.75

KC
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	K.Walker	24	0	1174.9	+0.8+0.03	+0.7+0.03	+0.4+0.05
	E.Johnson	2	0	157.5	+0.9+0.44	+0.8+0.41	+0.2+0.42
	P.Mahomes	2	0	178.5	+0.5+0.25	+0.7+0.33	+0.2+0.35
	K.Tonga	1	0	33.0	+2.2+2.24	+1.9+1.86	+0.7+1.86

Receiving

IND
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	J.Downs	9	7	0	7210.3	+8.2+0.91	+7.6+0.85	+2.5+0.80
	T.Warren	7	6	1	213.5	−0.1−0.01	+0.3+0.05	+0.2+0.10
	K.Allen	5	1	0	55.0	−7.6−1.53	−6.8−1.36	−2.6−1.44
	J.Taylor	4	4	0	4010.0	+2.5+0.63	+1.6+0.40	+0.4+0.33
	L.Treadwell	3	3	0	6120.3	+3.6+1.19	+2.6+0.86	+1.0+0.86
	A.Pierce	1	1	0	1111.0	+0.7+0.67	+0.7+0.73	+0.3+0.73
	A.Ogletree	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.56	−0.5−0.46	−0.2−0.46

KC
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	T.Kelce	11	9	1	10111.2	+5.1+0.46	+7.7+0.70	+2.7+0.69
	K.Walker	10	6	0	6110.2	−0.5−0.05	+0.9+0.09	+0.2+0.06
	X.Worthy	7	5	1	255.0	+0.4+0.06	+0.9+0.13	+0.5+0.20
	R.Rice	6	4	0	8320.8	+1.3+0.22	+1.0+0.17	+0.6+0.30
	T.Thornton	4	4	0	8621.5	+8.2+2.04	+6.2+1.55	+2.4+1.55
	J.Royals	2	2	1	63.0	+2.6+1.28	+2.7+1.33	+1.0+1.32
	E.Johnson	2	2	0	2010.0	+0.8+0.39	+1.2+0.60	+0.4+0.58
	N.Gray	1	0	0	0—	−0.8−0.82	−0.6−0.60	−0.2−0.60