GB 20, NYJ 17 — week 2, 2026

20 at 17

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
NYJ	86	17	2853.3	−9.0−0.105	−1.4−0.016	−4.4−0.051	+3.0+0.035	+0.5+0.015
GB	69	20	1992.9	−5.4−0.078	−1.7−0.025	−4.0−0.057	+2.2+0.032	−0.4−0.018
NET	17	−3	860.4	−3.7−0.027	+0.4+0.009	−0.5+0.006	+0.8+0.003	+0.9+0.034
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is NYJ minus GB.

Game Timeline

GB at NYJ. GB won by 3. Two panels. Top: NYJ's win probability across 168 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; NYJ was favored on 76% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at NYJ by 10.5 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +10% at play 113, G.Smith pass short right to B.Hall to GB 40 for 43 yards; -10% at play 130, J.Love pass incomplete deep right to M.Golden. PENALTY on…; -23% at play 152, B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	A.Mitchell	NYJ	12	—	—	+5.4+0.45	+5.4+0.45	+2.2+0.49	+5.6+0.46
	M.Golden	GB	6	—	—	+2.8+0.46	+2.8+0.46	+0.4+0.24	+1.3+0.22
	G.Wilson	NYJ	7	—	—	+2.6+0.38	+2.6+0.38	+0.7+0.31	+2.7+0.38
	G.Smith	NYJ	50	+4.2+0.09	−2.1−0.42	—	+2.1+0.04	+1.0+0.06	+1.3+0.03
	I.Williams	NYJ	7	—	+0.8+0.83	+0.7+0.11	+1.5+0.21	+0.6+0.25	+0.8+0.11
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	J.Love	16	29	2	0	3	1455.0	−3.2−0.10	−2.4−0.08	−1.3−0.12

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NYJ
	G.Smith	27	41	1	0	4	2476.0	+4.3+0.10	+4.2+0.09	+1.4+0.09

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	K.Johnson	8	0	324.0	−1.6−0.20	−1.2−0.15	−0.4−0.12
	M.Lloyd	6	0	203.3	−5.3−0.88	−3.4−0.56	−0.7−0.32
	C.Brooks	4	0	112.8	−1.0−0.26	−0.9−0.24	−0.3−0.25

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NYJ
	B.Hall	16	0	291.8	−7.0−0.44	−4.6−0.29	−1.5−0.27
	G.Smith	5	0	173.4	−2.9−0.59	−2.1−0.42	−0.4−0.27
	B.Allen	5	1	71.4	−2.7−0.54	−1.0−0.21	−0.2−0.13
	I.Williams	1	0	1414.0	+0.8+0.84	+0.8+0.83	+0.3+0.83

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
GB
	C.Watson	11	4	1	4110.2	−3.8−0.34	−4.3−0.39	−1.3−0.35
	M.Golden	6	4	0	5814.5	+1.3+0.22	+2.8+0.46	+0.4+0.24
	S.Moore	3	2	0	63.0	−1.5−0.48	−1.4−0.48	−0.6−0.68
	T.Kraft	3	2	0	157.5	−0.2−0.07	−0.2−0.07	−0.1−0.12
	M.Lloyd	2	2	1	63.0	+1.5+0.75	+1.2+0.59	+0.4+0.56
	C.Brooks	2	1	0	1515.0	+1.8+0.88	+1.6+0.78	+0.7+1.32
	J.Reed	1	1	0	44.0	−0.1−0.10	−0.1−0.05	0.0−0.05
	B.Melton	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.59	−1.2−1.20	−0.5−1.20

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NYJ
	A.Mitchell	12	6	0	6310.5	+5.6+0.46	+5.4+0.45	+2.2+0.49
	G.Wilson	7	5	1	5711.4	+2.7+0.38	+2.6+0.38	+0.7+0.31
	I.Williams	6	6	0	345.7	−0.1−0.01	+0.7+0.11	+0.3+0.14
	B.Hall	5	5	0	6312.6	+5.1+1.01	+3.6+0.73	+1.0+0.55
	K.Sadiq	3	2	0	178.5	−0.5−0.17	−0.4−0.15	−0.2−0.14
	J.Ruckert	2	2	0	52.5	−0.9−0.43	−0.4−0.22	−0.2−0.22
	B.Allen	1	1	0	88.0	+1.0+1.04	+1.0+0.99	+0.3+0.99