DET 31, BUF 41 — week 2, 2026

31 at 41

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
BUF	76	41	4465.9	+27.5+0.362	+27.3+0.359	+29.3+0.385	−2.0−0.026	+6.7+0.520
DET	73	31	3554.9	+16.5+0.225	+18.3+0.251	+21.4+0.293	−3.0−0.042	+1.0+0.102
NET	3	10	911.0	+11.0+0.136	+9.0+0.108	+7.9+0.093	+1.1+0.016	+5.6+0.417
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is BUF minus DET.

Game Timeline

DET at BUF. BUF won by 10. Two panels. Top: BUF's win probability across 171 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; BUF was favored on 100% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at BUF by 22.5 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	J.Allen	BUF	47	+13.7+0.42	+7.0+0.50	—	+20.7+0.44	+5.9+0.72	+20.8+0.44
	J.Goff	DET	45	+18.0+0.43	−1.7−0.56	—	+16.3+0.36	+0.8+0.15	+16.4+0.36
	A.St. Brown	DET	13	—	—	+9.9+0.76	+9.9+0.76	+1.0+0.68	+10.7+0.82
	D.Kincaid	BUF	8	—	—	+6.7+0.83	+6.7+0.83	+1.2+0.96	+7.2+0.90
	J.Gibbs	DET	24	—	+0.4+0.02	+5.8+0.73	+6.2+0.26	+1.2+0.34	+3.5+0.14
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	J.Goff	26	38	4	0	4	3278.6	+18.6+0.44	+18.0+0.43	+1.2+0.23

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Allen	20	31	3	0	2	2488.0	+15.0+0.46	+13.7+0.42	+3.3+0.57

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	J.Gibbs	16	0	523.2	−2.5−0.16	+0.4+0.02	+0.2+0.08
	J.Goff	3	0	72.3	−2.2−0.72	−1.7−0.56	−0.4−0.84
	S.Vaki	1	0	77.0	+0.5+0.51	+0.3+0.25	0.0+0.25

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Cook	21	1	1356.4	+5.0+0.24	+5.5+0.26	+0.8+0.22
	J.Allen	14	2	694.9	+5.7+0.41	+7.0+0.50	+2.7+1.06
	D.Moore	1	0	−1−1.0	−0.9−0.94	−0.7−0.67	−0.2−0.67

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	A.St. Brown	13	9	2	14215.8	+10.7+0.82	+9.9+0.76	+1.0+0.68
	J.Gibbs	8	6	1	6110.2	+6.0+0.75	+5.8+0.73	+1.0+1.07
	S.LaPorta	7	6	1	528.7	+5.7+0.81	+5.5+0.79	+0.6+0.51
	I.TeSlaa	5	2	0	2613.0	+1.8+0.36	+1.9+0.38	−0.1−0.30
	J.Williams	4	2	0	3316.5	+1.5+0.37	+1.6+0.40	+0.1+0.19
	S.Vaki	1	1	0	1313.0	+0.6+0.56	+0.5+0.55	+0.1+0.55

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	D.Kincaid	8	7	1	9513.6	+7.2+0.90	+6.7+0.83	+1.2+0.96
	K.Shakir	6	3	0	3812.7	+0.5+0.09	+0.3+0.05	+0.3+0.26
	K.Coleman	6	6	0	6310.5	+5.9+0.98	+4.9+0.82	+0.8+0.84
	J.Palmer	3	1	1	4343.0	+4.8+1.61	+4.1+1.35	+1.5+3.48
	J.Cook	3	1	0	44.0	−1.2−0.39	−1.2−0.39	−0.2−0.38
	D.Knox	2	2	1	52.5	+1.8+0.88	+2.0+1.01	+0.3+0.99