CLE 23, TB 19 — week 2, 2026

23 at 19

Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
TB	74	19	3134.2	−7.2−0.097	−2.4−0.032	−4.6−0.062	+2.2+0.030	−0.8−0.030
CLE	67	23	2674.0	+2.0+0.029	+0.9+0.013	+1.2+0.017	−0.3−0.004	−1.8−0.077
NET	7	−4	460.2	−9.1−0.126	−3.3−0.045	−5.8−0.079	+2.5+0.034	+1.0+0.047
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is TB minus CLE.

Game Timeline

CLE at TB. CLE won by 4. Two panels. Top: TB's win probability across 156 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; TB was favored on 89% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at TB by 9.7 in the third quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -15% at play 36, B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for T.Hurst — INTERCEPTED; +10% at play 66, Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain; -17% at play 110, D.Watson pass short middle to D.Boston for 55… — TOUCHDOWN; -29% at play 155, B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	D.Watson	CLE	39	+7.1+0.22	+1.7+0.24	—	+8.8+0.23	+1.5+0.11	+11.8+0.30
	D.Boston	CLE	7	—	—	+5.2+0.75	+5.2+0.75	+1.5+0.66	+7.0+1.00
	C.Godwin	TB	4	—	+0.5+0.51	+3.3+1.11	+3.8+0.96	+1.3+0.95	+4.4+1.09
	H.Fannin	CLE	6	—	—	+2.0+0.33	+2.0+0.33	+0.6+0.30	+2.1+0.36
	B.Whiteheart	CLE	2	—	—	+0.8+0.39	+0.8+0.39	+0.2+0.45	+2.5+1.26
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	D.Watson	24	30	2	0	2	2387.9	+10.4+0.32	+7.1+0.22	+1.9+0.18

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Mayfield	21	34	1	1	3	1825.4	−13.6−0.37	−7.6−0.21	−2.9−0.23

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	Q.Judkins	12	0	211.8	−8.3−0.69	−7.0−0.59	−2.7−0.61
	D.Watson	7	0	223.1	+1.5+0.21	+1.7+0.24	−0.4−0.21
	R.Sanders	2	0	42.0	−1.0−0.49	−1.1−0.57	−0.4−0.59
	K.Concepcion	1	0	−6−6.0	−1.9−1.92	−1.3−1.26	−0.5−1.26
	J.McLaughlin	1	0	33.0	−0.1−0.12	−0.2−0.18	−0.1−0.18

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	B.Irving	17	0	895.2	−0.1−0.01	−0.1−0.01	+0.1+0.02
	B.Mayfield	4	0	297.2	+4.6+1.16	+3.5+0.87	+1.2+0.93
	K.Gainwell	2	0	105.0	+1.2+0.58	+1.0+0.50	+0.4+0.50
	C.Godwin	1	0	1212.0	+0.5+0.48	+0.5+0.51	+0.2+0.51
	E.Egbuka	1	0	−3−3.0	−1.6−1.62	−0.8−0.84	−0.3−0.84

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CLE
	D.Boston	7	5	1	9519.0	+7.0+1.00	+5.2+0.75	+1.5+0.66
	K.Concepcion	6	6	0	284.7	+0.2+0.04	+0.3+0.05	+0.1+0.03
	H.Fannin	6	5	0	5410.8	+2.1+0.36	+2.0+0.33	+0.6+0.30
	Q.Judkins	5	5	0	275.4	+1.1+0.22	+1.2+0.25	+0.5+0.29
	B.Whiteheart	2	1	1	1717.0	+2.5+1.26	+0.8+0.39	+0.2+0.45
	R.Sanders	1	1	0	77.0	+0.2+0.18	+0.3+0.28	+0.1+0.28
	I.Bond	1	1	0	1010.0	+0.7+0.72	+0.6+0.60	+0.2+0.60
	J.Jeudy	1	0	0	0—	−0.9−0.89	−0.6−0.61	−0.2−0.61
	J.McLaughlin	1	0	0	0—	−0.4−0.41	−0.4−0.40	−0.1−0.40

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
TB
	T.Hurst	7	2	0	2713.5	−6.4−0.92	−4.6−0.65	−1.6−0.63
	C.Otton	6	5	0	387.6	−1.5−0.24	0.0−0.01	−0.2−0.08
	E.Egbuka	5	3	1	165.3	−1.7−0.34	+0.1+0.03	+0.1+0.05
	B.Irving	4	4	0	10.2	−2.3−0.58	−1.8−0.45	−0.6−0.46
	K.Gainwell	4	3	0	51.7	−2.7−0.68	−1.5−0.39	−0.6−0.39
	T.Johnson	4	1	0	4949.0	+1.0+0.24	+0.3+0.09	+0.2+0.17
	C.Godwin	3	3	0	4615.3	+3.9+1.30	+3.3+1.11	+1.1+1.13