JD
CASE

CAR 34, ATL 3 — week 2, 2026

CAR
34 at 3
ATL
Week 2 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team Plays Points YARDS EPA CASE POINTS
NOW
THE GAME
AFTER1
CONTESTED
CASE2
  ATL 75 3 2863.8 −39.5−0.526 −25.6−0.342 −28.1−0.375 +2.5+0.033 −4.3−0.355
  CAR 75 34 3404.5 −1.2−0.016 +3.4+0.045 +4.5+0.060 −1.1−0.014 +1.8+0.124
NET 0 −31 −54−0.7 −38.3−0.510 −29.1−0.387 −32.6−0.435 +3.5+0.047 −6.1−0.480
1 Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
2 Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE | Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is ATL minus CAR.

Game Timeline

CAR at ATL. CAR won by 31. Two panels. Top: ATL's win probability across 163 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 0%; ATL was favored on 1% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at CAR by 31.0 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -10% at play 13, B.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards — TOUCHDOWN.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

Player Team Plays
CASE
CONTESTED
CASE
EPA
PASSING RUSHING RECEIVING ALL
B.Young   CAR 39 +10.8+0.29 +0.8+0.80 — +11.6+0.30 +3.7+0.42 +12.1+0.31
D.Waller   CAR 3 — — +4.6+1.53 +4.6+1.53 +0.8+1.44 +5.6+1.86
C.Hubbard   CAR 14 — −0.5−0.04 +4.5+2.23 +4.0+0.29 +1.6+0.51 +4.8+0.34
T.McMillan   CAR 10 — — +3.0+0.30 +3.0+0.30 +1.6+0.60 +3.6+0.36
X.Legette   CAR 4 — — +2.6+0.65 +2.6+0.65 +0.6+0.45 +3.1+0.77
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE | Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

  CAR
Player Completions Attempts Touchdowns Interceptions Sacks YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
B.Young 23 36 3 0 2 2878.0 +11.1+0.29 +10.8+0.29 +3.6+0.42
  ATL
Player Completions Attempts Touchdowns Interceptions Sacks YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
C.Rush 10 17 0 2 1 865.1 −12.2−0.68 −10.0−0.55 −1.7−0.36
J.Strand 8 15 0 1 2 593.9 −12.9−0.76 −8.0−0.47 −0.1−0.95

Rushing

  CAR
Player Carries Touchdowns YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
C.Hubbard 12 0 534.4 +0.2+0.01 −0.5−0.04 −0.2−0.10
J.Brooks 5 0 163.2 −0.8−0.17 −1.1−0.21 −0.1−0.26
A.Dillon 3 0 −3−1.0 −3.1−1.03 −2.4−0.79 0.0−0.86
B.Young 1 0 66.0 +1.1+1.08 +0.8+0.80 +0.1+0.80
K.Pickett 1 0 −4−4.0 −2.4−2.38 +0.1+0.12 0.0+0.12
  ATL
Player Carries Touchdowns YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
Bi.Robinson 16 0 724.5 −1.9−0.12 +0.2+0.01 −0.3−0.07
Br.Robinson 11 0 514.6 +0.8+0.07 +0.1+0.01 +0.2+0.25
C.Rush 2 0 2010.0 −3.0−1.49 −0.1−0.03 −0.3−0.55
J.Strand 2 0 168.0 +1.5+0.74 +1.4+0.68 0.0+0.64
D.London 1 0 −2−2.0 −4.1−4.09 −2.9−2.91 −1.0−2.91

Receiving

  CAR
Player Targets Receptions Touchdowns YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
T.McMillan 10 5 0 10120.2 +3.6+0.36 +3.0+0.30 +1.6+0.60
J.Coker 9 8 0 668.2 +1.7+0.19 +2.1+0.23 +0.3+0.17
X.Legette 4 2 0 6432.0 +3.1+0.77 +2.6+0.65 +0.6+0.45
D.Waller 3 3 2 3311.0 +5.6+1.86 +4.6+1.53 +0.8+1.44
C.Hubbard 2 2 1 115.5 +4.6+2.32 +4.5+2.23 +1.8+2.22
T.Tremble 2 1 0 44.0 −0.9−0.44 −0.6−0.30 −0.2−0.33
J.Brooks 1 1 0 −5−5.0 −1.5−1.48 −1.1−1.08 −0.3−1.08
M.Evans 1 1 0 1313.0 0.0+0.02 0.0+0.01 0.0+0.01
  ATL
Player Targets Receptions Touchdowns YARDS EPA CASE CONTESTED
CASE
D.London 5 4 0 5112.8 +3.3+0.66 +2.8+0.57 +0.7+0.59
Bi.Robinson 4 3 0 93.0 −4.5−1.13 −3.9−0.98 −1.4−1.11
J.Dotson 4 2 0 115.5 −6.0−1.50 −4.7−1.17 +0.1+0.26
A.Hooper 4 2 0 2010.0 +1.6+0.39 +1.9+0.47 0.0+0.58
K.Pitts 3 1 0 1515.0 −8.3−2.77 −6.5−2.17 −0.4−0.69
O.Zaccheaus 3 1 0 33.0 −2.1−0.69 −1.5−0.50 −0.4−0.69
C.Blair 3 1 0 66.0 −1.8−0.60 −1.7−0.58 0.0−0.60
Z.Branch 2 2 0 147.0 +0.5+0.26 +0.7+0.37 0.0−0.11
Br.Robinson 2 2 0 168.0 +1.2+0.60 +0.5+0.26 0.0−0.91
C.Woerner 1 0 0 0— −0.6−0.55 −0.4−0.45 0.0−0.45