NO 30, DET 31 — week 1, 2026

30 at 31

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
DET	87	31	3694.2	−4.3−0.050	+5.3+0.061	+4.4+0.050	+0.9+0.010	+2.1+0.087
NO	97	30	4694.8	−1.5−0.016	+0.9+0.009	+3.6+0.037	−2.7−0.028	−3.8−0.167
NET	−10	1	−100−0.6	−2.8−0.034	+4.4+0.051	+0.8+0.013	+3.6+0.038	+5.9+0.255
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is DET minus NO.

Game Timeline

NO at DET. DET won by 1. Two panels. Top: DET's win probability across 204 plays, starting at 52% and finishing at 100%; DET was favored on 96% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at DET by 20.6 in the third quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: +11% at play 88, T.Shough pass short middle intended for N.Fant — INTERCEPTED; -14% at play 143, T.Shough pass deep right to D.Vele to DET 16 for 31 yards; +18% at play 179, D.Carlson 62 yard field goal — NO GOOD; +17% at play 204, TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Shough pass to B.Lance is….

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	C.Olave	NO	13	—	—	+11.7+0.90	+11.7+0.90	+1.4+0.49	+13.7+1.05
	B.Lance	NO	4	—	—	+3.8+0.94	+3.8+0.94	+0.4+0.67	+4.1+1.03
	D.Vele	NO	9	—	—	+3.2+0.35	+3.2+0.35	+0.7+0.28	+4.9+0.54
	J.Gibbs	DET	34	—	+5.5+0.19	−2.8−0.55	+2.7+0.08	+0.6+0.06	−1.4−0.04
	A.St. Brown	DET	14	—	—	+2.6+0.18	+2.6+0.18	+0.2+0.07	+0.8+0.06
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	T.Shough	35	56	3	2	5	4107.3	−0.10.00	−1.9−0.03	−3.8−0.28

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	J.Goff	26	39	2	0	1	2065.3	+0.7+0.02	+0.9+0.02	+0.6+0.06

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	T.Etienne	9	0	465.1	−1.8−0.20	−0.1−0.01	0.0+0.01
	K.Miller	9	1	303.3	+0.7+0.08	+2.1+0.23	+0.3+0.14
	T.Shough	4	0	82.0	−1.2−0.29	−0.6−0.15	−0.1−0.08
	C.Donaldson	2	0	42.0	+0.9+0.46	+1.1+0.57	+0.4+0.58
	B.Brown	1	0	33.0	−0.3−0.30	−0.2−0.20	−0.1−0.20

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	J.Gibbs	29	2	1565.4	+1.4+0.05	+5.5+0.19	+1.3+0.15
	S.Vaki	2	0	73.5	−0.6−0.32	−0.5−0.26	−0.1−0.26
	J.Goff	2	0	21.0	−1.5−0.75	−1.3−0.65	−0.4−0.67

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
NO
	C.Olave	13	10	0	18218.2	+13.7+1.05	+11.7+0.90	+1.4+0.49
	D.Vele	9	7	1	699.9	+4.9+0.54	+3.2+0.35	+0.7+0.28
	T.Etienne	9	7	0	324.6	−1.0−0.11	−0.7−0.08	−0.5−0.24
	N.Fant	8	4	1	338.2	−8.5−1.07	−6.9−0.87	−3.1−1.55
	J.Johnson	7	3	1	5418.0	+1.0+0.14	+0.9+0.12	+0.2+0.17
	B.Lance	4	3	0	4214.0	+4.1+1.03	+3.8+0.94	+0.4+0.67
	C.Donaldson	2	1	0	−2−2.0	−1.3−0.64	−1.1−0.54	−0.4−0.55

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
DET
	A.St. Brown	14	10	2	676.7	+0.8+0.06	+2.6+0.18	+0.2+0.07
	J.Williams	9	4	0	4511.2	+0.4+0.05	+0.1+0.02	+0.4+0.16
	S.LaPorta	8	5	0	489.6	+3.0+0.38	+1.5+0.19	+0.9+0.37
	J.Gibbs	5	5	0	306.0	−2.9−0.58	−2.8−0.55	−0.7−0.50
	I.TeSlaa	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.57	−0.5−0.45	−0.2−0.45
	S.Vaki	1	1	0	1111.0	+0.6+0.63	+0.6+0.55	+0.1+0.55
	B.Wright	1	1	0	55.0	−0.2−0.20	−0.1−0.12	0.0−0.12