DEN 10, KC 31 — week 1, 2026

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER1	CONTESTED CASE2
KC	75	31	3925.2	+4.2+0.056	+8.5+0.113	+9.6+0.128	−1.1−0.014	+3.5+0.190
DEN	61	10	1762.9	−18.9−0.310	−11.8−0.193	−13.9−0.227	+2.1+0.034	−1.8−0.117
NET	14	21	2162.3	+23.0+0.365	+20.3+0.307	+23.4+0.355	−3.1−0.048	+5.3+0.307
1 Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
2 Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE | Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is KC minus DEN.

Game Timeline

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
				PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL
	K.Walker	KC	29	—	+9.9+0.43	+1.1+0.19	+11.0+0.38	+3.6+0.43	+10.7+0.37
	T.Kelce	KC	5	—	—	+4.4+0.88	+4.4+0.88	+0.6+0.63	+5.0+0.99
	E.Johnson	KC	10	—	+0.1+0.02	+3.6+1.79	+3.7+0.37	+0.2+0.16	+3.9+0.39
	E.Engram	DEN	5	—	—	+3.7+0.73	+3.7+0.73	+1.2+1.36	+4.1+0.81
	P.Bryant	DEN	6	—	—	+2.0+0.34	+2.0+0.34	+0.8+0.45	+2.0+0.34
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE | Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

DEN
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	B.Nix	17	28	1	1	4	1314.7	−14.4−0.45	−10.0−0.31	−1.1−0.14

KC
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	P.Mahomes	15	27	2	1	2	1846.8	−2.3−0.08	−1.0−0.03	−1.1−0.14

Rushing

DEN
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	J.Dobbins	8	0	364.5	−1.1−0.14	−0.5−0.06	−0.3−0.14
	R.Harvey	3	0	186.0	+1.2+0.39	+1.1+0.37	+0.4+0.56
	B.Nix	3	0	20.7	−1.3−0.44	−0.7−0.23	−0.1−0.49
	T.Franklin	1	0	55.0	−0.2−0.16	0.0+0.01	0.0+0.01

KC
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	K.Walker	23	1	1737.5	+10.1+0.44	+9.9+0.43	+3.6+0.56
	E.Johnson	8	0	243.0	−0.4−0.06	+0.1+0.02	0.00.00
	P.Mahomes	7	1	233.3	−1.1−0.16	+1.2+0.17	+1.6+1.33

Receiving

DEN
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	P.Bryant	6	4	0	4210.5	+2.0+0.34	+2.0+0.34	+0.8+0.45
	C.Sutton	5	2	0	115.5	−4.8−0.96	−2.9−0.57	−0.9−0.88
	E.Engram	5	4	1	4310.8	+4.1+0.81	+3.7+0.73	+1.2+1.36
	R.Harvey	4	4	0	235.8	−0.1−0.02	−0.9−0.24	−0.2−0.16
	A.Trautman	3	2	0	105.0	−0.7−0.22	−0.5−0.16	−0.2−0.16
	J.Waddle	3	1	0	22.0	−4.3−1.43	−2.9−0.97	−0.9−0.90
	T.Franklin	1	0	0	0—	−2.7−2.75	−2.0−1.98	0.0−1.98

KC
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	X.Worthy	6	3	0	186.0	−8.4−1.41	−6.4−1.07	−1.4−0.82
	K.Walker	6	3	1	186.0	+0.6+0.11	+1.1+0.19	0.0+0.02
	T.Kelce	5	3	0	7123.7	+5.0+0.99	+4.4+0.88	+0.6+0.63
	R.Rice	2	2	1	199.5	+2.1+1.06	+1.3+0.66	+0.5+0.77
	E.Johnson	2	2	0	4422.0	+4.3+2.16	+3.6+1.79	+0.2+2.64
	T.Thornton	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.56	−0.6−0.61	−0.2−0.61
	C.Allen	1	0	0	0—	−1.6−1.60	−1.2−1.18	−0.5−1.18
	N.Gray	1	1	0	55.0	+0.4+0.44	+0.2+0.20	+0.1+0.20
	J.Briningstool	1	1	0	99.0	+0.8+0.79	+0.8+0.79	+0.3+0.79