CLE 10, JAX 34 — week 1, 2026

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER1	CONTESTED CASE2
JAX	66	34	3605.5	+19.1+0.289	+16.4+0.249	+19.3+0.292	−2.9−0.043	+4.1+0.437
CLE	59	10	2724.6	−12.2−0.207	−7.1−0.121	−6.6−0.112	−0.5−0.009	−2.7−0.474
NET	7	24	880.8	+31.3+0.496	+23.5+0.369	+25.9+0.404	−2.4−0.035	+6.8+0.911
1 Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
2 Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE | Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is JAX minus CLE.

Game Timeline

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
				PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL
	T.Lawrence	JAX	26	+16.9+0.71	−0.3−0.13	—	+16.7+0.64	+3.8+0.77	+18.6+0.72
	P.Washington	JAX	6	—	—	+7.8+1.30	+7.8+1.30	+2.6+1.53	+8.8+1.46
	D.Boston	CLE	4	—	—	+4.5+1.12	+4.5+1.12	0.0−0.23	+5.2+1.29
	J.Meyers	JAX	3	—	+0.6+0.60	+3.8+1.90	+4.4+1.46	+0.4+0.68	+5.1+1.72
	J.Cameron	JAX	2	—	—	+2.8+1.39	+2.8+1.39	+0.5+1.99	+2.2+1.10
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE | Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

CLE
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	D.Watson	16	22	1	1	5	2059.3	−9.8−0.36	−5.1−0.19	−2.5−0.87

JAX
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	T.Lawrence	18	23	4	0	1	24510.7	+19.0+0.79	+16.9+0.71	+4.0+0.87

Rushing

CLE
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	Q.Judkins	12	0	332.8	−2.7−0.23	−1.7−0.15	−0.1−0.05
	D.Watson	6	0	386.3	+4.2+0.70	+3.5+0.58	0.0−0.15
	K.Concepcion	3	0	155.0	+0.1+0.03	+0.2+0.06	+0.1+0.56
	R.Sanders	1	0	11.0	−0.8−0.75	−0.5−0.53	0.0−0.53

JAX
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	B.Tuten	15	0	664.4	−1.1−0.07	−0.7−0.05	+0.2+0.16
	C.Rodriguez	6	0	233.8	−0.8−0.13	+0.2+0.04	0.0−0.03
	A.Abdullah	4	0	328.0	+1.0+0.25	+0.9+0.22	0.0+0.25
	N.Mullens	3	0	−3−1.0	0.00.00	−0.5−0.17	0.0−0.52
	T.Lawrence	2	0	31.5	−0.4−0.20	−0.3−0.13	−0.2−0.66
	J.Meyers	1	0	22.0	+0.4+0.40	+0.6+0.60	+0.2+0.60
	T.Hunter	1	0	33.0	−0.3−0.27	−0.2−0.22	0.0−0.22

Receiving

CLE
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	K.Concepcion	5	4	0	4310.8	−1.8−0.36	−1.2−0.23	−0.3−0.45
	J.Jeudy	4	2	0	2613.0	−6.1−1.52	−4.1−1.03	−1.8−2.82
	D.Boston	4	2	1	5929.5	+5.2+1.29	+4.5+1.12	0.0−0.23
	H.Fannin	3	2	0	2110.5	−0.2−0.06	+0.2+0.07	−0.3−0.94
	R.Sanders	3	3	0	258.3	+0.5+0.17	+0.7+0.25	0.0+0.32
	Q.Judkins	2	2	0	178.5	+0.1+0.07	+0.3+0.17	−0.1−0.40
	B.Whiteheart	1	1	0	1414.0	+1.0+1.05	+0.9+0.93	+0.4+0.93

JAX
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	P.Washington	6	5	1	8316.6	+8.8+1.46	+7.8+1.30	+2.6+1.53
	Bri.Thomas	3	3	0	4013.3	+3.0+0.99	+2.4+0.79	+0.7+0.79
	B.Strange	3	2	1	2311.5	+2.4+0.79	+2.6+0.86	+0.2+0.90
	J.Cameron	2	2	1	2010.0	+2.2+1.10	+2.8+1.39	+0.5+1.99
	J.Meyers	2	2	1	4020.0	+4.7+2.37	+3.8+1.90	+0.2+0.84
	N.Boerkircher	1	1	0	99.0	+0.9+0.93	+0.6+0.65	+0.1+0.65
	Q.Morris	1	0	0	0—	−0.5−0.53	−0.4−0.45	−0.1−0.45
	T.Hunter	1	1	0	88.0	+0.3+0.33	+0.5+0.45	+0.1+0.45
	B.Tuten	1	1	0	2222.0	+1.3+1.26	+1.0+0.96	0.0+0.96
	A.Abdullah	1	1	0	00.0	−0.7−0.75	−0.6−0.61	0.0−0.61