CHI 59, CAR 37 — week 1, 2026

59 at 37

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
CAR	74	37	4786.5	+6.1+0.082	+7.3+0.099	+8.7+0.118	−1.4−0.019	+1.7+0.084
CHI	80	59	5526.9	+32.7+0.409	+29.9+0.374	+34.3+0.429	−4.4−0.055	+7.4+0.319
NET	−6	−22	−74−0.4	−26.6−0.327	−22.6−0.275	−25.6−0.311	+3.0+0.036	−5.8−0.235
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is CAR minus CHI.

Game Timeline

CHI at CAR. CHI won by 22. Two panels. Top: CAR's win probability across 184 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; CAR was favored on 25% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at CHI by 22.0 in the fourth quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -10% at play 33, C.Williams pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6…; -16% at play 67, T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22. Ji.Horn MUFFS catch…; -11% at play 92, B.Young pass deep left intended for J.Coker — INTERCEPTED; -9% at play 136, K.Monangai up the middle for 61 yards — TOUCHDOWN.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	C.Williams	CHI	41	+13.2+0.43	+2.1+0.21	—	+15.4+0.38	+4.2+0.33	+17.3+0.42
	B.Young	CAR	41	+11.8+0.30	+1.3+0.67	—	+13.1+0.32	+2.5+0.23	+12.1+0.30
	J.Coker	CAR	9	—	—	+10.1+1.12	+10.1+1.12	+1.9+0.81	+12.5+1.38
	D.Swift	CHI	19	—	+7.8+0.44	+0.6+0.56	+8.4+0.44	+2.1+0.33	+10.0+0.52
	C.Hubbard	CAR	13	—	+1.9+0.19	+4.9+1.63	+6.8+0.53	+1.7+0.41	+5.8+0.45
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	C.Williams	21	29	2	0	2	2699.3	+13.9+0.45	+13.2+0.43	+3.2+0.32

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	B.Young	23	37	3	1	2	3619.8	+10.4+0.27	+11.8+0.30	+1.9+0.18
	K.Pickett	0	1	0	0	0	00.0	−0.4−0.38	−0.7−0.66	0.0−0.66

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	D.Swift	18	3	1246.9	+9.2+0.51	+7.8+0.44	+1.9+0.32
	C.Williams	10	2	656.5	+3.4+0.34	+2.1+0.21	+1.0+0.38
	K.Monangai	10	1	10010.0	+2.5+0.25	+4.1+0.41	+0.5+0.29
	L.Burden	1	0	22.0	−0.4−0.36	−0.3−0.31	−0.1−0.31

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	C.Hubbard	10	1	494.9	+1.5+0.15	+1.9+0.19	+0.8+0.22
	A.Dillon	5	0	285.6	−2.0−0.40	−3.2−0.63	0.0−0.24
	J.Brooks	4	0	143.5	−1.6−0.41	−1.3−0.34	−0.5−0.36
	B.Young	2	1	105.0	+1.7+0.84	+1.3+0.67	+0.6+1.46
	K.Pickett	1	0	2424.0	+1.7+1.68	+1.8+1.79	0.0+1.79

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CHI
	K.Raymond	9	8	0	8410.5	+6.5+0.72	+6.7+0.75	+2.2+0.78
	L.Burden	5	5	0	6312.6	+1.5+0.31	+2.9+0.58	+0.8+0.49
	R.Odunze	3	2	0	5226.0	+4.0+1.34	+0.5+0.17	+0.4+0.41
	C.Kmet	3	2	1	3517.5	+3.6+1.19	+3.8+1.26	+0.8+1.19
	K.Monangai	2	2	0	2412.0	+1.5+0.73	+1.1+0.55	+0.4+0.50
	C.Loveland	2	0	0	0—	−1.0−0.51	−0.8−0.40	−0.3−0.41
	D.Swift	1	1	0	1010.0	+0.7+0.74	+0.6+0.56	+0.2+0.56
	J.Walker	1	1	1	11.0	+1.4+1.38	+2.1+2.06	0.0+2.06

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
CAR
	J.Coker	9	8	2	13817.2	+12.5+1.38	+10.1+1.12	+1.9+0.81
	T.McMillan	8	5	0	7515.0	−2.5−0.31	−1.3−0.17	−0.8−0.53
	T.Tremble	5	3	0	258.3	+0.5+0.11	+0.6+0.12	+0.2+0.11
	C.Hubbard	3	3	1	3812.7	+4.3+1.44	+4.9+1.63	+0.9+1.28
	M.Evans	2	1	0	99.0	0.0−0.01	+0.2+0.12	+0.1+0.13
	X.Legette	2	0	0	0—	−1.0−0.49	−0.9−0.46	−0.2−0.45
	J.Brooks	2	1	0	4848.0	+1.5+0.77	+1.9+0.96	+0.8+1.11
	D.Waller	2	2	0	2814.0	+1.2+0.62	+1.5+0.76	+0.5+0.77
	Ji.Horn	1	0	0	0—	−0.4−0.38	−0.7−0.66	0.0−0.66