BUF 36, HOU 31 — week 1, 2026

36 at 31

Week 1 · 2026 · Final

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER¹	CONTESTED CASE²
HOU	86	31	3814.4	+8.4+0.098	+12.5+0.146	+14.7+0.171	−2.2−0.025	+4.2+0.136
BUF	62	36	4096.6	+18.1+0.291	+18.6+0.300	+18.4+0.296	+0.3+0.004	+6.0+0.272
NET	24	−5	−28−2.2	−9.7−0.194	−6.1−0.155	−3.7−0.125	−2.4−0.029	−1.8−0.136
¹ Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
² Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE \| Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is HOU minus BUF.

Game Timeline

BUF at HOU. BUF won by 5. Two panels. Top: HOU's win probability across 170 plays, starting at 53% and finishing at 0%; HOU was favored on 34% of plays. Bottom: each play's CASE as a bar above or below zero, with the expected final margin as a line. The expected margin peaked at BUF by 8.7 in the second quarter, and finished on the actual result. Labeled plays: -10% at play 39, J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards — TOUCHDOWN; -12% at play 60, J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Moore. PENALTY on…; -18% at play 127, J.Allen pass deep right to D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards; -39% at play 156, J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34… — TOUCHDOWN.

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	Player	Team	Plays	PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL	CONTESTED CASE	EPA
	J.Allen	BUF	37	+12.7+0.41	+2.3+0.38	—	+15.0+0.41	+4.6+0.36	+13.2+0.36
	D.Kincaid	BUF	6	—	—	+7.0+1.17	+7.0+1.17	+2.4+1.14	+7.6+1.27
	N.Collins	HOU	11	—	+0.6+0.61	+4.7+0.47	+5.3+0.48	+2.1+0.52	+5.8+0.53
	C.Stroud	HOU	43	+3.1+0.08	+1.2+0.60	—	+4.3+0.10	+1.4+0.09	+3.0+0.07
	D.Moore	BUF	8	—	—	+4.2+0.53	+4.2+0.53	+1.6+0.58	+6.4+0.80
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE \| Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Allen	20	29	2	0	2	33411.5	+15.5+0.50	+12.7+0.41	+4.4+0.40

	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
HOU
	C.Stroud	26	38	2	0	3	2747.2	+1.5+0.04	+3.1+0.08	+0.9+0.06

Rushing

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	J.Cook	13	0	574.4	−0.1−0.01	+0.5+0.04	+0.3+0.05
	J.Allen	6	2	233.8	−2.3−0.39	+2.3+0.38	+0.2+0.09
	R.Davis	1	0	33.0	−0.2−0.15	0.00.00	0.00.00
	F.Gore	1	0	33.0	−0.1−0.06	−0.8−0.79	−0.3−0.79

	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
HOU
	D.Montgomery	20	2	603.0	−0.3−0.02	+1.1+0.06	+0.5+0.07
	W.Marks	9	0	424.7	+1.5+0.16	+2.4+0.27	+0.8+0.25
	C.Stroud	2	0	157.5	+1.5+0.73	+1.2+0.60	+0.5+0.63
	N.Collins	1	0	77.0	+0.9+0.91	+0.6+0.61	+0.2+0.61

Receiving

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
BUF
	D.Moore	8	5	1	10020.0	+6.4+0.80	+4.2+0.53	+1.6+0.58
	K.Shakir	6	4	0	5012.5	+0.5+0.09	+0.6+0.11	+0.3+0.12
	D.Kincaid	6	5	0	13026.0	+7.6+1.27	+7.0+1.17	+2.4+1.14
	J.Cook	4	3	0	124.0	−0.4−0.09	−0.1−0.03	−0.1−0.05
	J.Palmer	2	1	1	3434.0	+4.1+2.06	+2.7+1.33	+0.8+1.35
	K.Coleman	1	1	0	11.0	+1.0+1.00	+0.9+0.86	+0.3+0.86
	D.Knox	1	1	0	77.0	+0.3+0.29	+0.2+0.24	+0.1+0.24

	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
HOU
	N.Collins	10	7	1	7510.7	+4.9+0.49	+4.7+0.47	+1.8+0.51
	D.Schultz	8	4	0	358.8	−2.5−0.32	−1.9−0.24	−0.9−0.33
	X.Hutchinson	6	3	0	3210.7	+0.9+0.15	+0.4+0.07	+0.1+0.06
	D.Montgomery	3	3	1	196.3	+2.6+0.88	+1.6+0.54	+0.6+0.53
	K.Boutte	2	1	0	2121.0	+0.4+0.21	+0.4+0.22	+0.1+0.19
	F.Moreau	2	2	0	157.5	+0.9+0.47	+0.8+0.40	+0.3+0.39
	J.Noel	2	2	0	5326.5	+4.0+1.99	+3.2+1.62	+1.0+1.62
	M.Klein	1	1	0	1616.0	+1.0+1.05	+0.9+0.87	+0.4+0.87
	W.Marks	1	1	0	−2−2.0	−1.4−1.37	−0.8−0.82	−0.3−0.82
	C.Stover	1	1	0	−2−2.0	−0.9−0.94	−0.6−0.62	−0.2−0.62
	J.Wayne	1	1	0	1212.0	+0.7+0.73	+0.7+0.73	+0.3+0.73