BAL 41, IND 23 — week 1, 2026

Box Score

Offensive scrimmage plays. Each value shows the total, with its per-play average beneath it. Points now and the game after add up to CASE.

Team	Plays	Points	YARDS	EPA	CASE	POINTS NOW	THE GAME AFTER1	CONTESTED CASE2
IND	61	23	2514.1	−10.8−0.177	−2.7−0.045	−1.0−0.016	−1.8−0.029	−1.2−0.094
BAL	76	41	5066.7	+11.2+0.147	+15.9+0.209	+18.6+0.245	−2.7−0.036	+4.6+0.327
NET	−15	−18	−255−2.5	−22.0−0.324	−18.6−0.254	−19.6−0.261	+0.9+0.007	−5.7−0.422
1 Points now + the game after = CASE, exactly. Points now is what a play did for the race to the next score. The game after is what it did to everything past that — mostly the clock and the possessions left — which no expected-points model measures.
2 Contested CASE weights each play by how much of the game was still in doubt. Its total is the weighted sum of those plays, so snaps taken in a decided game total little.
CASE | Offensive scrimmage plays. NET is IND minus BAL.

Game Timeline

Best CASE

Every play a player was part of — passing, rushing and receiving — so a quarterback who runs gets credit for both.

	Player	Team	Plays	CASE				CONTESTED CASE	EPA
				PASSING	RUSHING	RECEIVING	ALL
	L.Jackson	BAL	34	+7.7+0.29	+5.8+0.83	—	+13.5+0.40	+5.3+0.78	+12.6+0.37
	Z.Flowers	BAL	6	—	—	+11.1+1.85	+11.1+1.85	+3.5+1.96	+13.1+2.18
	D.Henry	BAL	25	—	+7.1+0.30	+1.4+1.39	+8.5+0.34	+1.2+0.28	+8.5+0.34
	J.Downs	IND	4	—	—	+3.0+0.75	+3.0+0.75	+1.4+1.11	+3.4+0.85
	C.Moore	BAL	2	—	—	+2.5+1.26	+2.5+1.26	+0.2+0.98	+3.2+1.60
Beneath each value: passing per dropback, rushing per carry, receiving per target; all CASE, Contested CASE and EPA per play.
CASE | Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

Passing

Away team left, home team right. Player views are tabulations, not allocations: a completion counts in full for both passer and receiver, so player CASE does not sum to the team total.

BAL
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	L.Jackson	17	25	1	0	2	32413.0	+10.3+0.38	+7.7+0.29	+3.2+0.57

IND
	Player	Completions	Attempts	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Sacks	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	D.Jones	19	31	1	1	2	1665.4	−15.2−0.46	−9.4−0.28	−2.3−0.36

Rushing

BAL
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	D.Henry	24	3	1446.0	+6.8+0.28	+7.1+0.30	+0.8+0.21
	L.Jackson	7	1	405.7	+2.3+0.32	+5.8+0.83	+2.1+1.94
	J.Hill	6	0	183.0	−2.4−0.39	−1.3−0.22	−0.1−0.20

IND
	Player	Carries	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	J.Taylor	19	2	985.2	+2.2+0.12	+4.6+0.24	+0.9+0.21
	D.Jones	1	0	44.0	+0.2+0.24	+0.3+0.30	0.0+0.30

Receiving

BAL
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	Z.Flowers	6	5	1	15030.0	+13.1+2.18	+11.1+1.85	+3.5+1.96
	M.Andrews	6	4	0	4912.2	+2.1+0.35	+1.5+0.26	+0.3+0.27
	J.Lane	3	1	0	1111.0	−4.0−1.34	−3.9−1.31	−1.1−1.34
	L.Wester	2	2	0	157.5	0.0−0.02	+0.9+0.43	+0.1+0.42
	C.Moore	2	1	0	5353.0	+3.2+1.60	+2.5+1.26	+0.2+0.98
	M.Hibner	1	1	0	1313.0	+0.9+0.85	+0.8+0.76	+0.3+0.76
	D.Smythe	1	1	0	44.0	+0.1+0.08	+0.1+0.09	0.0+0.09
	D.Henry	1	1	0	1919.0	+1.7+1.70	+1.4+1.39	+0.4+1.39
	R.Bateman	1	0	0	0—	−0.8−0.83	−0.6−0.60	−0.1−0.60
	J.Hill	1	1	0	1010.0	+1.1+1.14	+1.0+1.03	0.0+1.03

IND
	Player	Targets	Receptions	Touchdowns	YARDS	EPA	CASE	CONTESTED CASE
	K.Allen	6	6	0	325.3	0.00.00	+1.2+0.19	+0.3+0.31
	A.Pierce	6	4	0	6115.2	+1.9+0.32	+2.1+0.35	+0.3+0.38
	T.Warren	5	3	1	134.3	−0.6−0.11	0.00.00	−0.4−0.38
	J.Downs	4	2	0	3718.5	+3.4+0.85	+3.0+0.75	+1.4+1.11
	J.Taylor	4	3	0	237.7	−5.0−1.25	−4.3−1.07	−1.1−1.41
	A.Ogletree	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.61	−0.4−0.42	−0.2−0.42
	L.Treadwell	1	0	0	0—	−4.8−4.81	−4.2−4.15	−1.7−4.15
	A.Dulin	1	0	0	0—	−0.6−0.61	−0.6−0.61	−0.1−0.61
	S.McGowan	1	1	0	00.0	−1.8−1.75	−1.2−1.19	−0.2−1.19